Stuttgart +3.33 PVA head the stats over 3 playoff teams.

+9 VA and promotion a just reward for Stuttgart who fought well all season. They sit above Montpellier on +12VA and Fiorentina , who both were relegation fodder early season. Dnipro the wonder team are 4 in the stats , and they got the playoff win. Malaga and Flamengo the auto promoted teams also figure highly. The other notable high Vas are Atalanta on +6 and (cough cough) Sevilla on +8 who most people predicted relegation woes.

With such overperformance there must be the opposite. Bordeaux, AZ, Feyenord , should all have been challenging for promotion Bordeaux on -16 VA and AZ -15.

A fairly wild season in division 4 with none of the predicted relegated teams going down and only 6 teams with negative PVA.

1 FC Koln , first by name and by stats.

A great season for Koln, +11 VA and +12 PVA promoted and well clear of the rest in the stats.  River Plate 2^nd in the stats , play off team also promoted which shows the strength of the manager in charge.  Schalke in 2^nd will be happy with a strong season all round as will Anderlecht . A big shout out for Sassuolo on a notable +4 VA escaping the chop.

Swansea and Cruziero had the largest negative VA and PVA but perhaps Inter who missed out on promotion will be most disappointed this year.  Not so good for the predicted relegation teams, with 3 of 4 going down.

Some big gains and loses in division 2.

Espanyol head the stats with a stunning +17 VA and +9 VA and are rightly promoted. Sao Paulo who won the league finish 2^nd in the stats with 3^rd place Man Utd in 3^rd place in the stats. Promoted Fenerbahce had a notable +5 VA . Liverpool will count themselves unlucky finishing 4^th but missing out in the play offs.  All it went wrong in Lisbon and Liege -15 and -12 VA respectively and a poor performance for Levante sees the potential champs in 3^rd lowest place in the stats. 2 predicted teams were relegated in Hamburg and Hoffenheim and like D1 a narrow escape for Celta.

A Real return to form.

The Madrid fans will be  more than happy with the 6^th place finish and finishing just top of the stats. A +6 VA the best in the division and PVA of 1.17 places them just above Juventis and Chelsea who did all they could in winning the division.

Notable +5 for Genoa who are emerging as genuine challengers once again and Atletico who managed a good mid table finish.

The lowest VA are Leicester and Man City who were both 8 places below where they should have been, Everton will be disappointed to be relegated with Arsenal also underperforming. Two of the predicted relegation sides escaped (just) with Valencia coming 15^th and Villa 14^th.

The tightest divisional battle by far who will win?

Less than 6 points separate 1^st to last in the stats. Probably will result in the most random results and least accurate predictions but let’s give it a go.

Flamengo have the most depth, best midfield and attack but just lack a quality keeper. Bordeaux in 2^nd pack a punch up front and are solid enough in midfield. Malaga are well balanced except perhaps the keeper and should get auto promotion. Augsburg and Lille  have the best keeper , forward combo and we know this works well in the lower divisions.  Torino look set for a good cup run especially with a good keeper and good depth.  Mid 218 is the cut off to survive D3 so Stuttgart and above should be aiming for promotion this year.

The relegation zone sits at 216.5 most seasons and only 4 teams sit below Dynamo Moscow.  St-Etienne, Montpellier, Sevilla and Fiorentina have their main weakness in defence.  St-Etienne have a fair attack, and the rest a reasonable keeper so with the right tactics all 4 could survive.

Division 4 is much stronger than last season with less difference between first and last.

Who can challenge the top 3 in division 3?

There are 3 teams Inter, Schalke and Anderlecht who could easily win division 2. All 3 have 90 plus attack and Inter are straight 90 across the board. Schalke maybe lack depth but a potent attack must gain them promotion this year. Anderlecht likewise will terrorise lesser teams in D3.

Cruzeiro will be there if any of the top 3 slip up and must be guaranteed a playoff spot as they are 1.5 points above 5^th spot.  Then the gap narrows with Sunderland, Swansea. Zagreb , Palace and Galatasaray fighting out for the remaining spot.  Swansea seem well placed with good depth and a strong attack.  Twente maybe a good cup run bet from a lower division team, with Inter also being able to function in all competitions.

You need 220 to survive D2 so teams as far down as Koln or Sampdoria could look to make the playoffs without fear.

Showing how narrow the gap is between success and failure low 219s means relegation.  As things stand Sassuolo look doomed weak midfield and defence won’t be enough. Ajax lack depth but are much stronger at the back. Zenit are more balanced, while Wolfsburg and Borussia have a relatively strong attack which could be enough to save them

Division 3 in marginally weaker than last season with a similar range between the strongest and weakest sides.

Levante heading back to Division 1?

Straight 90 rated Levante seem set to gain promotion, the only real area of weakness is the depth.  Stoke though in 2^nd have a stronger attack and should be able to challenge them. Sao Paulo have the strongest midfield and are well balanced. Sporting perhaps a keeper short of promotion have a potent outfield and one of the strongest attacks. Liege go for the top and tail approach but do lack some depth. We then have SC Internacional who go out and out depth as the others falter they could well move up the table.

To survive D1 you will need a rating of 224 so Liverpool would also fancy their chance at promotion or play off success.

As for relegation anything under 220 leaves you in real risk of problems. Hamburg know that they will need strong tactics to finish anywhere other than last. Espanyol lack a strong attack and are weak in defence. Promoted Celta are much more potent up top but again do they have enough in defence to survive.  Hoffenheim are also ok at the front but a weak keeper, defensive combination will be troublesome.  AC Milan seem to be more balanced and have good depth,

Division 2 is substantially weaker than last season both on average and the highest / lowest side dropping around 2 points.

Can Chelsea overcome the champions as the stats predict.

A fairly narrow gap splits the top two teams. Hellas have greater depth and a superior defence than Chelsea and match them up top. Chelsea will be using their keeper and midfield to screen the opposing sides.

Dortmund are their closest rivals a well balanced side with a potent attack. Porto are a similar side to  Chelsea with the same kind of balance with Juve another side that is balanced throughout.

Benfica have an obvious weakness in defence but are otherwise a tough side to crack,  Bayern have greater depth than any side in the league and as the season goes on they should make greater progress.  Everton are the wild card side for me, lacking in depth a weaker keeper but on their day could match anyone.

As for relegation 224 is a fair cut off.  This leave 5 sides in obvious danger. Villa with less depth a relatively poor keeper and defence combo might be in more trouble than 17^th suggests.    Valencia have a strong attack but may struggle throughout as will Southampton.  West Brom go for the top and tail technique. Hope your keeper saves you and the attack can punt in a few goals.

Division 1 is slightly stronger than last season but with less difference between the highest and lowest teams.

Usual explanation here:

Teams are rated using a formula which looks at the 4 main positions, GK,DEF,MID and FWD, along with the 18^th ranked player ( the lowest ranked player likely to play ) and the Average.

This produced ETOT the ranking used to work out the final position. This formula is more or less unchanged from around season 4 onwards. There is human input in deciding the most likely team. In addition on occasions the 18^th ranked player ( or less ) in much lower rated, I may choose to ignore that to not skew the stats.

Independiente have a really solid side, it should be a relatively easy ride into D4, they top and tail their team nicely and have good depth. Then perhaps much like the current seasons the rest of the placings will be hard fought by a large number of teams. Boca and Lazio also both top and tail their team with a strong GK, ATT combo. Lazio lack depth which will cost them. Santos have a good midfield but are weaker uptop.

Spartak need a good keeper as do Kyiv,. Kazan look well balanced again.

The cut off for survival in D4 isn’t that high at 216.5 so this rightly suggest all teams down to Athletic club could feature in the playoff and get promoted.

Lower down only the sack race to worry about. Basel, Lyon and Partizan lack any depth.  Newcastle need a good rebuild with only rating above 87.

Division 5 is considerably stronger than last year up half a rating point from the previous season. This is probably due to rebuilds, no contracts and a particularly weak team gaining promotion.

Atalanta deserved leaders in the stats and they win the league.

Finishing 3 places above expected Atatlanta have +4 PVA. They sit just above fellow promoted team Montpellier who have a VA of +9. However the teams with the highest VA are Besitkas and Seville on +10 , both made the playoffs although only Seville survived the first round. Athletic club the opponents of Seville sit on +6 VA and Newcastle get an honourable mention on +6 VA

Poor performances though from 4 of the top  6 predicted sides see that at the wrong end of the stats.  Kazan should have been 3^rd but came 11^th they have the joint lowest VA on -8 and lowest PVA on -0.64. Villareal should have made the playoffs but didn’t they also have -8 VA along with Marseille. Boca made the playoffs but their promotion hopes were blown out by Seville.

3 of the lowest 4 predicted teams finished in the lowest 4