Blue is the colour again?

Few reminders.

Gk, Att, Mid, Def is  the average rating as I see it.

Top 18 is the rating of the 18^th player. This does not include 2^nd or 3^rd choice keepers and there is human input if this player is a lot lower than  the squad average.

Ave = Average of the above.

ETOT uses a secret formula to weight all the previous to come up with a team ranking , this was based on  the first 3 or 4 seasons looking at how much each position matched up with finishing positions.

Pre = Predicted position.

Chelsea are clear of the pack they have pretty much the best defence and midfield but can be challenged up top. Barcelona and Juve sit 2^nd and 3^rd.  Barca are stronger up top where as Juve go for  the more balanced approach.

Genoa now rank 4^th and should maintain that position .

Espanyol did so well last year but maybe strength in depth will be an issue this season.  Hertha if they could find a better keeper could aim higher.

225.15 got relegated last year, 224.35 the previous and 222.26 the year before...  Life is getting tougher in D1 as the best improve at the expense of the rest.

Leverkeusen, AC Milan and Valencia are detached from the pack and look like clear relegation fodder. Roma look doomed already and would struggle in the division below.  Having said that Man City and PSG fall below the cut off meaning we could have 6 teams fighting it out for relegation.

Dutch courage as Feyenoord lead the table and the stats.

Play offs always in sight , the Dutch team pushed higher than expected with automatic promotion. Cruziero in 2^nd had the 3rd highest VA on +10 with the Hammers leading the VA on +11. Az a notable +9.

Olympiacos , Spartak and Boca , all should have been top 4 but all fell to lowest 4 in the stats. Partizan I suspect will take promotion but with a low stats position. 3 out of 4 of the lowest ranked finished there.

Run away leaders are not top of the stats.

You could argue that Zagreb were a cut above the rest and a mighty +3 PVA put them in 2^nd spot behind River Plate

Atalanta a great performance in 12th place gave them +5 VA

Augsburg came last in the PVA, missing out on the play offs when they should have got there.  ( perhaps no fault of the highly talented manager LOL ) .  Villareal had the lowest VA on -7 VA . 3 of the lowest 5 ranked were relegated.

+13 VA lucky for some especially Dynamo Kiev

A fantastic performance by the Ukranian side saw them advance from mid table prediction to the heights of D3.  Highest VA and PVA +12 /+13 respectively.

Stoke in 2^nd were the 2^nd in the stats as well as form was thrown away at the top end of the table.  Great performances from Dnipro on +8 VA in 9^th and Sporting in 8^th,

Worst  performing teams was Werder Bremen who still made the playoffs just but –0.71 VA and Man Utd who were well off pace.  Lille had the lowest VA –12 and were relegated to boot. Never the less 3 out of 4 teams predicted to be relegated were.

Will play offs play fair with the stats leaders?

Newcastle are the run away stats leaders in D2 top VA +9 and PVA 2.50. PSG this seasons winners come second in the stats with Leverkeusen in 3^rd.

Notable high VA Levante +9 and Sevilla +6.

Liverpool were the most disappointing team this season –10 VA and  -0.69 PVA with fellow team Everton not far behind.

3 out of 4 relegation predictions came true.

Genoa good team in Division 1 I do.

The old guard was nearly undone this season by 2 solid rivals of Genoa and Espanyol.

In the end 6 points was the difference but in terms of manager performance Genoa and Espanyol head the charts , they are just above victors Chelsea and the value added winners of Man City and Valencia

Most disappointing team this season was clearly Juventus lowest VA and PVA with relegated Benfica failing to perform. Hella and Atletico Madrid also had poor seasons and are low  in the stats table. 3 of the lowest 5 stats teams were relegated.

Season 14 Division 5 Stats and facts

Will Partizan come out top this season.

Partizan are a cut above the rest in D5 they probably just need to grab an 88 GK to have a decent enough team to double bounce.

D5 has a little less quality than last season but this is marginal 0.1 / 0.2 average per team..    Boca , Olympiaco, Spartak and Palace should be competing for the remaining auto promotion spots. Boca, Palace and Olympiacos have a clear advantage with a great keeper which may leave Spartak looking towards the play offs.

However you realistically only need 217.6 to challenge for a spot in D4 so any team down to Athletic could go for it this year. There is no relegation so it is only the sack race to fear. Independiente very much a project team are  clear favourites to finish last,  St Etienne may need just a better keeper to finish higher than 1 place above them.  AZ lack depth , and Sao Paulo need to boost their attack and midfield.

Cup run Sampdoria or Torino seem to have a good amount of depth this season to challenge.

Four of the promoted teams in the top 7.

Flamengo are the clear leaders but not so far in front of the rest that they can’t be caught.

The Brazilian machine has great all round stats and leads most categories.

Augsburg who overhauled them last season are in second and look fit to challenge for automatic promotion once again. Zagreb the run away winners of D4 should finish in the top 3 but are finding life hard against stiffer opposition.

There is very little difference in quality between D3 / D4 with the exception of the top side in D3 and the lowest side in D4.

You would need around 218.5 to survive in D3 so anyone down to Inter could get promoted and then do well enough the next season to allow them to rebuild and strengthen.

WBA have great strength but little depth , a good start in needed as injuries could play havoc.  Moscow and Besitkas look more balanced amd the same could be said all the way down to current leaders Fiorentina.

As mad as last season was , you can still look at 217.6 for relegation woes.

This should mean near automatic relegation for Malaga and Leicester. Lokomotive may have a good enough keeper to save them while Atlanta could surely acquire one if needed.

Dynamo Moscow would be my tip for a surprise cup run this season.

Werder the clear leader in the middle division.

Get ready to set sail on the sea of compromises that is division 3.

Werder lead in 3 key stats of Def, Mid , Att and also overall. However and there is always a but, they have a weaker keeper than some. I believe though the large amount of possession and strong attack should be too big a problem for most .  Villa and Santos are closely matched. Villa more strength , less depth , great keeper / defence combo.  Santos more attacking minded , perhaps better as the season progresses.

All the way down to Stoke could survive in D2.  Man Utd are playing the strength card, but 2 or 3 injuries will bring their season crashing down. Udinese a well balanced team, also looking for a good cup run.

Borussia M and Lille should function in a similar manner. Stoke are more interesting having a weaker keeper than most.

Relegation is more difficult to judge here.  Things get problematic at less than 218.5 and usually relegation is certain less than 218.2.

That leaves 6 teams in the mix for that particular prize.

Wolfsburg lack of defence will surely be their undoing long term even with a decent keeper, they also lack depth so one or two injuries in the middle possession will falter.   Shaktar lack a defensive unit and keeper strong enough in this division and look certain relegation candidates.

Celta could easily be improved with an 87 rated keeper of which there are plenty external at the moment.  Dnipro, Sporting , Galatasaray almost identical in stats . the manager will make all the difference there.

Two runaway leaders ?

Anderlecht are far and away the best team in D2.

They would finish  top 8 in D1 and should win the league with ease.  Fellow relegated PSG should find 2^nd an easy win.

Neither side has any obvious weakness and the others don’t come close.

Also relegated from D1 Liverpool head the chasing pack.  They go for strength over depth and must avoid injuries or suspension. A similar and familiar them applies to Leverkeusen and Everton who should find the playoffs .  Southampton are the first depth side and they may need to wait for the 2^nd half of the season before making their challenge.

224.6 is the cut off though to survive in D1 so only the leaders can hope not to fall again without some kind of additional boost to their squad.

A the lower end of the table anything less than 218.5 makes relegation a likely prospect. With that in mind only Napoli and Levante look to be in serious problem as the lower end of D2 has perked up a bit this year.

Levante seem outmatched in most departments, Napoli do have some attacking prowess if used correctly.  Basel and Sevilla have balanced squads but the team just above Sevilla hope to use their keeper to save them this season.

Cup run anybody?  Schalke have the depth and two byes to assist them into the 2^nd round and a stamina boost to envy,

Chelsea top of the stats for season 14

For the new managers or those who have forgotten.

I take the average rating of the Gk, Def, Mid, Att , the lowest of the top 18 ( adjusted if needed ) and the overall average to produce the ETOT the effective total.

This then gives the predicted position.

Chelsea sit just above Barcelona, their side is better balanced and has more depth , although neither side really goes that deep. These 2 are well clear of Juventus and Arsenal . Juventus also lack depth but on any given day could challenge the top 2 as could Arsenal who are the first depth side. They need to look at the long game this season.

Bayern and Porto are the only other sides above 229, realistically the cut off for any title hopes. Bayern have the greatest depth of any team and like Arsenal may have to hope for injuries in the Barcelona or Chelsea squads.

Real Madrid and Dortmund also are well equipped for the long run and I would expect them to finish higher than their predicted position if managed well.

224 is the cut off for relegation so Tottenham , Man City and Ajax would need to do really well to even finish above the cut off. Roma may fair little better with a tragic lack of depth and an ancient keeper who is sure to drop, they may save one of their lower ranked rivals.

Zagreb dominant. Cruziero have highest VA.

Zagreb are a well deserved PVA winner with Cruziero in 2nd spot. Play off team Twente are in third with St Etienne and Stuttgart over performing.

Palace and Feyenord along with Bordeaux have the lowest PVA with perhaps Bordeaux having the lowest VA.

Secondplace Dnipro top PVA and VA.

From 14th predicted to 2nd actual, a great performance all round for the promoted side from the Ukraine. Werder did what they should but statistically a better performance from playoff team Fenerbache and also promoted Sporting.

Special mention to Leicester who moved from 20th to 8th.

Boca were a disappoitment as were playoff Dynamo and Santos. Athletic club have the 2nd lowest VA and they get relegated.

3 way tie at the top.

Kiev just a little ahead of Villa and just above CSKA.

Kiev have the highest VA and get into the playoff +11 from 17th is a great performance.

Villa likewise in 5th and CSKA taking the title a great performance.

Notable plus to Celtic.

Lille have the lowest VA with Man Utd. Wolfsburg and Montpelier dissapointing.

Dominant Arsenal are not top of the stats

Hamburg are statistically the most overachieving team. Joint best PVA and best VA pushes team top , just above Valencia. Arsenal should and did get predicted.

Also a noticeable plus to Schalke who pushed into the playoff spots.

Dissapointment for relegated Borussia who finish 20th in the league and the stats.

This season has seen a chaning of the guard.

Chelsea get the highest PVA and VA well deserved.

Atletico come 2nd in PVA exceeding their projected finish by 6.

Highest VA goes to Hellas who finished a plucky 11th after being relegation candidates.

At the wrong end relegated Anderlecht and PSG fill the lowest 2 spots. With Benfica being the only other team having negative PVA, largely due to most of the other sides finishing where they should of.