Fiorentina +16 VA lead the stats in the wildest division of them all.

Division 4 was incredibly tight at the start and this has led to some mad VA and PVA.

Fiorentina top of the stats and 2^nd in the league with a PVA of +8.50 lead league winners Brugge who were 3 places above expected. Sevilla with +10 VA make the playoffs and Napoli who should have relegated also have +10 VA.  Montpellier on +5 VA and Wolfsburg on +4 are notable over performers.

When it went wrong it really did. Augsburg who should have won the league were relegated and Ajax have had a mighty fall on -10 VA.  Tornio also relegated on – 10 VA. The only predicted relegation team to drop were predictably Atalanta.  6 of the top 7 did finish in those positions.

Swans sail away majestically with 1^st in league best VA and PVA in division.

Always a strong favourite to over perform with a lethal attack Swansea never the less finished 6 places above expected. Playoff bound palace 2^nd in the stats with a VA of +6 are ranked just above Zagreb who came in 2^nd in the league.  Another team with +6 VA is Dnipro; while finishing 9^th they should have been 15^th so a return to form to the overperformers of the past.  A shout out to Beddows and Sampdoria who on +4VA were the other notable over achievers.

It all went wrong for Liege who just escaped relegation on -9 VA and Galatasaray who didn’t also on – 9 VA.  Borussia Monchengladbach also fell into the relegation hole on -6 VA.  The top of the table was fairly close to what was predicted and lower down there was a fair correlation with the predicted relegation teams usually 2 to 3 places higher if they escaped.

+14 VA Milan top the stats

A team that was a relegation favourite gets auto promotion is a great success story. 5 pts clear of 4^th and a well-deserved promotion for AC Milan.

Man City may feel that they did all they could and won the league with room to spare in the end but that is what they should have achieved so they are 2^nd in the stats. Play off Stoke on +4 VA and their companions in the lottery Hertha are 3^rd and 4^th in the stats.  River Plate also escaped the relegation zone and have +5 VA.

The big flops in division 2 were relegated Celta on -5VA and more so Everton on -10 who also go down.  Liverpool and Sporting would hope for much better next season.

Werder and Southampton were relegated as predicted, 7/8 of the predicted top 8 finished in those positions. Perhaps indicating the top of D2 in less random than the lower half.

All Hail Hellas.

For those new to the league VA = Value added , how many places above your predicted position your club finishes.

PVA = Positional value added, which takes into account where you finished.

The top of the table leaves you little room to get a good PVA in D1. Hellas finished 1 place better than they should and top the stats and the league.  Chelsea who finished 1 place behind are also 2^nd in the stats, with over performing Sao Paulo with the best league VA of +6 3^rd in the stats. A shout out to Geno also 4^th in the stats on +4 VA.

The only shout out underperformers were Juventus, 4 places below predicted and Atletico on -7VA who are the worse place statistically.  Only Espanyol escaped relegation as predicted with all 4 relegated sides coming from the 6 lowest rated and all 4 top side from the 4 highest rated.

Crazy! The best team in D5 would be the best team in D4.

Not completely clear of the rest but Independiente would top D4 if they were in it. No weaknesses and would expect to pop 2 or 3 against most teams,  anything other than promotion is a flop this year. Bordeaux approach the 220 mark but just lack a strong keeper.  AZ would expect to challenge deep into the season especially with that potent attack. Lazio top and tail well but lack depth. Kazan similarly have a good keeper / attacker combo but also lack depth.

It is a relatively soft landing into D4 any team over 217 would survive with little change.  Any team down to Basel should look to promotion or at least a playoff place.  Feyenoord could well go deep in the cup despite their 16^th ranking.  Partizan will probably finish higher than their ranking suggests due to the strong attack. Athletic club and Newcastle could well lack enough possession to make progress. Division 5 has shown some improvement this season with an increase in average rating of 0.5 points.

The tightest division so far, a 9-way tie for first spot?

A quick excuse for 3 or 4 months down the line. There are only 3.4 points from first to last, so literally any team could win the league, some are just a bit more favoured than others.

The top 3 do sit a little above the rest, Augsburg look a well-balanced team with tons of depth which should lend well to no surprises.  Lille have a stronger keeper but a weaker defence which could be a concern with some of the strong attacks in this league. CSKA sit in third and will be waiting for their keeper to rise otherwise they would have been in second spot.  The next 5 clubs are separated by .4 points.  Ajax top and tale with little depth, they will need luck on their side.  Monaco may fancy their chances more with that good attack and keeper combo with added depth on the side.

Santo and Torino go down to 87 rating in their top 18, Torino in particular look to be a great cup prospect.  Unlike other divisions it doesn’t fall off a cliff but as 219 will be needed to survive in the next division those should be the promoted teams.

217.7 was the rough cut off for relegation. This leaves 7 contenders from St-Etienne down in peril. Of those teams St-Etienne have a weaker keeper which will cost them. PSV lack depth, like their Dutch cousins how will they prosper as the season continues.  Atalanta have the best Attack / Keeper combo, that is usually a good move. Sevilla and Montpellier have plenty of depth, Fiorentina and Napoli have decent balanced teams. If I were to pick 4 teams away from the stats It would be Napoli (midfield weakness) St Etienne (Keeper weakness) PSV (no depth) (Atalanta weak defence) who will struggle the most.

Division 4 is 0.5 points weaker than last season but as previously mentioned much more tightly packed.

Inter a solid 90 team in Division 3, not for much longer!

Inter have a team which would be mid table in Division 1 and all but guaranteed promotion in D2. Should be a walk over for them. There is then a crop of 8 or 9 teams who could challenge for the promotion places.

Flamengo look to be solid second favourites solid for D3,  strong attack and good keeper.  Zagreb in 3^rd are the classic lower division top and tail team maybe less depth than the rivals above them.  Hamburg shouldbe confident of at least a playoff spot of their high rated keeper can perform as well as he should. Liege likewise have a strong keeper and a good attack, continuing the theme at the top of the rankings. Sunderland are a well balanced team with no real weakness.

Swansea have a good attack but the keeper is surely a sore point that will be attacked by other managers.

The cut off for survival in D2 is 221 so Galatasaray, West Ham and with a little work Malaga and Spurs could also feature in the playoff battle.

219 rating points was the relegation cut off last season.  This would leave Twente who are a work in progress,  Hoffenheim with their low rated Keeper,  Sassuolo who must improve their defence and Stuttgart in the drop zone.  Up for the cup? Swansea should be able to put out a decent reserve side to battle for a knock out prize.

Division 3 is 0.2 points weaker than last season with the two outliers of Twente and Inter more or less cancelling each other out. However the mid ranked teams are slightly higher rated which suggest more of a scramble for the last playoff spots and the weaker teams losing contact more quickly than normal.

Man City to be promoted? Who comes with them.

Other than top 18 Man City lead every other category. They would be at least top 10 in Division 1 so anything other than 1^st place will be seen as a fail by the fans and pundits.  There are then 7 teams in for a shout at  auto promotion and the playoffs. Levante will be clear favourites for 2^nd spot.  Internacional may get off to a slower start than their rivals but a mighty 88 top 18 means they will have no problems with injuries or suspensions unless really unlucky.  Sporting are really strong up front but do lack depth, Schalke are a solid 90 ranked team , sitting just above Stoke who offer a slightly weaker defence.  Everton round out the super 7 challengers , maybe they are a keeper away from guaranteed playoff places.  To survive D1 it looks like the cut off is 224. So in reality these would be the only teams really gunning for promotion.

Of the rest maybe PSG if they can sort out a new keeper, Anderlecht look solid throughout but could do with bolstering the midfield.  Liverpool and Udinese fancy a cup run this season.

At the lower end I would normally say the cut off would be 218 for promotion but this year D2 is different.  The average at 222.87 is a point or more stronger across the board.  There isn’t a massive gap from Werder to Udinese.  Werder for example, lack depth but are a solid 88 team.  River Plate have a decent Midfield but are weaker at the back. Southampton lack depth but have 3 ratings at 89. AC Milan have plenty of depth . It will be tough in D2 this season and at the lower end injuries will account for at least 2 or more clubs being relegated which does leave me pondering about Werder, River Plate, Southampton maybe WBA and Koln. A relatively easy fix to get that top 18 rating above 85?

Stats and Facts

Will three teams really beast Chelsea?

For anyone unsure of how the stats work please read the following:

I look at the likely players in the 4 key positions, GK, DEF,MID,ATT. I try to match it to the normal formation where possible. The average is calculated in each position. The TOP18 is the lowest player in the top 18 who isn’t a keeper. On rare occasions there is human input if the 18^th player is much lower than the rest and unlikely to play. This is then this is fed into a magic formula to give the ETOT which calculate the rankings. Simples!

Dortmund sit a little above Hellas this year, although they have a weaker keeper and attack than their rivals. Hellas also have much better depth than Dortmund and I think they will bide their time to some extent.  Porto are a match for Dortmund in most areas except defence and even less depth. Chelsea have the best keeper and many options in attack or midfield but will falter if they get a lot of injuries.

Juventus are the best of the rest but are 1.7 points shy of Chelsea which is a huge margin.  Bayern , Atletico and of course Barcelona could still challenge for the title.  Sao Paulo look the best placed of the promoted teams.

Any team in the 222 range will struggle to make any progress in such a tough league.  Espanyol look like cannon fodder early on , although with good depth they may not suffer as much as Villa who lack strength and depth at the moment.  Fenerbache perhaps the surprise promotes are a tad stronger than Villa with a bit more strength through the squad.

This leaves an open space where almost any team from Benfica down could fall into. Leverkeusen could be good for a cup run .

Overall D1 is around 0.1 points per team weaker than last season but this is marginal.

PSV head the stats 2^nd place in the league.

+11 VA is a huge achievement in any league which is why PSV sit above fellow promotes Santos and Napoli who have +9 VA to boot. A cracking performance by Newcastle +10 VA when they were predicted to be the lowest rung on the ladder.

O.K. so D5 is for rebuilds if that is what you want this could explain 4 -10 VA for Shaktar, Dynamo Kiev, Lazio and Independiente.