Will relegated and promoted sides dominate as predicted?

Relegated Galatasaray are a strong all round side no real weakness and sufficient depth with a 90 rated attack. Fellow relegated Stuttgart should make a quick return with a slightly stronger attack but weaker midfield. Shakhtar continue their renaissance and perhaps are a keeper away from the title.

Ajax flatter to deceive so often recently they have a great keeper for the division they are in but lack depth. Promoted Basel go all out attack but do lack some strength. Monaco are the division top and tail team of the division who sit below Zenit who are much more balanced.

218.5 is the limit to survive D3 so any team down to Santos could aim for auto promotion. 

Last season was mad but around 217 would be a limit to relegation. This would leave Lokomotiv Moscow who are rebuilding but have no depth and Napoli in desperate trouble. Any team up to Roma will look to improve to pull out of the lowest 4.  Up for the cup ? well Twente and Shakhtar look best equipped to progress a round or 2 or even 3.

Division 4 is substantially tougher on average at +-.6 across the board.

Everton favourites to return to D2

No team is massively better than the rest in this division. Everton have the joint best midfield in the league and are solid throughout with stacks of depth. Sunderland in second, are a bit weaker in midfield and lack a little depth compared to their rivals. Liege are a classic top and tail team, a 91 rated attacker can wreak havoc with no other team having a keeper to match. Flamengo can match Everton in midfield and have a broadly similar team to them.

A rating of 222 is needed to survive D2 which perhaps shows how D2 has moved on recently with D3 dropping half a point across the board. Tottenham, West Ham , and Bremen can all use a 90 rated attacker and any or all can challenge for the playoff but would they simply return to sender ?

Everton look best set for a cup run, with Dnipro and Hoffenheim fancying their chances. 

218.8 was the relegation cut off last season but with the division being weaker we can assume Dnipro should survive. The 3 Italian teams seem to be in the most trouble. Fiorentina promoted but no real strengths, Sassuolo stronger but no depth at all with Sampdoria in a similar position.  Celta seem to be rebuilding but they have a decent attack better than Hoffenheim who rank above them.

Will Inter double bounce?

Interestingly Inter are the only promoted or relegated club to feature in the play off positions or better.  They should be mid table D1 and winning as champions is the minimum the fans expect.

Second in the stats are Sporting good attack and keeper, pehaps defence is the only weakness.  Internacional are stronger up front but a little weaker still in midfield and defence.  Stoke are a more balanced side but do lack the depth of some of their contenders.

Liverpool are the highest rated side with a sub 90 rated keeper, perhaps they could lose something to pick one up .  Schalke will be hoping their strong attack keeps them in the playoff spots.  You probably need 224.5 to survive D1 atm so if any of the other teams get promoted they will head back down again the next season.

Fenerbache, Valencia and Udinese should perform well in the cup.

220.5 or less would be around the cut off for relegation from D2 normally but the gap between the best and worst has narrowed considerably and the standard of the division is up around 0.2 on average.  This leads to River Plate as being the only solid relegation candidates They have a good keeper but an weak defence needs reinforcements. Celtic are well balanced but lack depth , they could falter as the season goes on. Villa in a similar vein could double drop .   WBA go for the top and tail which could keep them safe in what is likely to very tight with 7 team around about the 221 ranking and 6 more at around 222. In reality that means 13 teams with 1 or 2 rating points difference in the starting eleven. Management skill, form and luck will play a huge part in D2.

Many years in the making Lazio top the stats, can the now walk the walk…

The Lazio fans won’t accept any more excuses, they now have a well-balanced team ranked above any other in the league. AZ have the most potent attack in the league and they will combine that with a good midfield to “score one more than you”.

Independiente go for the top and tail approach hoping the lack of possession won’t really matter as they can score and hopefully the opposition can’t.  Bordeaux has an even stronger attack and rated 2 more than any keeper surely, they must top the goals for account this season. Augsburg inherit vast amounts of depth which should see them good for the season. Torino will fancy their chances with good depth and a well-balanced squad. To survive in the division higher you would need 217 ish so as far down as Lyon could get into the playoffs.

At the wrong end just to avoid the sack race is the main ambition. Athletic club and FK are rebuilding. Atalanta should finish a bit higher; Newcastle just needs to buff up the midfield a little.

Usual explanations here:

Will Dortmund overcome Hellas?

I use the average rating in Gk, Def, Mid, Att using the best formation, I include the lowest ranked top 18 player who is likely to play and work out an average. Then using a magic formula developed in the early days of T100 the ETOT the estimated total rating of the team.

Teams are then ranked best to worst.

After a great season the top and tail approach of Hellas seems to work better than the all-round strength of Dortmund. Second ranked Dortmund probably would be after a higher rated keeper, not that 92 is bad to round out their team and also more depth.  Other than defence Porto in 3^rd can match Hellas. Chelsea in 3^rd is another similar team but depth is lacking this season.

The other two main contender above 230 are Bayern and Juventus. Juventus maybe not good enough up top, Bayern lack a great keeper and with a lesser midfield that could be a problem.

That leaves a sizeable gap to the rest the Old Boys of Manchester perhaps have 1 or 2 seasons to tilt at the title. Genoa could be a dark horse with the depth in their squad.

Last season 224 or less meant relegation issues. As it stands AC Milan are as good as relegated, they desperately need a keeper and a 90+ striker.  Hertha’s main weakness is defence, Espanyol are playing a waiting game on some risers. That leaves one final dropper spot.  Levante look most vulnerable with a risk of really low possession and a weak keeper for the league they are in.  Juventus & Hellas could be great cup teams as could Genoa, Real Madrid and Leverkeusen.

Shaktar +11 VA and +12 PVA win the title.

It would be hard to deny that Shaktar have the performance of the year in D5, fellow promoted teams Boca and Rubin sit 2^nd and 3^rd in the stats.

4 more teams have +6 VA, Basel, Villareal, Newcastle and Athletic club showing great managerial talent.  Lower down the league Lazio finish as the lowest rated team -13 VA , with Bordeaux who should have finished 2^nd on -8 VA and Independiente on -5 VA. Spartak and Dynamo Moscow both have -10VA.

In this division none of the top 3 finished in the top 3 and only Lyon of the lowest 5 finished in the lowest 5 showing that a quick turn around in D5 is easily possible.

Fiorentina +16 VA lead the stats in the wildest division of them all.

Division 4 was incredibly tight at the start and this has led to some mad VA and PVA.

Fiorentina top of the stats and 2^nd in the league with a PVA of +8.50 lead league winners Brugge who were 3 places above expected. Sevilla with +10 VA make the playoffs and Napoli who should have relegated also have +10 VA.  Montpellier on +5 VA and Wolfsburg on +4 are notable over performers.

When it went wrong it really did. Augsburg who should have won the league were relegated and Ajax have had a mighty fall on -10 VA.  Tornio also relegated on – 10 VA. The only predicted relegation team to drop were predictably Atalanta.  6 of the top 7 did finish in those positions.

Swans sail away majestically with 1^st in league best VA and PVA in division.

Always a strong favourite to over perform with a lethal attack Swansea never the less finished 6 places above expected. Playoff bound palace 2^nd in the stats with a VA of +6 are ranked just above Zagreb who came in 2^nd in the league.  Another team with +6 VA is Dnipro; while finishing 9^th they should have been 15^th so a return to form to the overperformers of the past.  A shout out to Beddows and Sampdoria who on +4VA were the other notable over achievers.

It all went wrong for Liege who just escaped relegation on -9 VA and Galatasaray who didn’t also on – 9 VA.  Borussia Monchengladbach also fell into the relegation hole on -6 VA.  The top of the table was fairly close to what was predicted and lower down there was a fair correlation with the predicted relegation teams usually 2 to 3 places higher if they escaped.

+14 VA Milan top the stats

A team that was a relegation favourite gets auto promotion is a great success story. 5 pts clear of 4^th and a well-deserved promotion for AC Milan.

Man City may feel that they did all they could and won the league with room to spare in the end but that is what they should have achieved so they are 2^nd in the stats. Play off Stoke on +4 VA and their companions in the lottery Hertha are 3^rd and 4^th in the stats.  River Plate also escaped the relegation zone and have +5 VA.

The big flops in division 2 were relegated Celta on -5VA and more so Everton on -10 who also go down.  Liverpool and Sporting would hope for much better next season.

Werder and Southampton were relegated as predicted, 7/8 of the predicted top 8 finished in those positions. Perhaps indicating the top of D2 in less random than the lower half.

All Hail Hellas.

For those new to the league VA = Value added , how many places above your predicted position your club finishes.

PVA = Positional value added, which takes into account where you finished.

The top of the table leaves you little room to get a good PVA in D1. Hellas finished 1 place better than they should and top the stats and the league.  Chelsea who finished 1 place behind are also 2^nd in the stats, with over performing Sao Paulo with the best league VA of +6 3^rd in the stats. A shout out to Geno also 4^th in the stats on +4 VA.

The only shout out underperformers were Juventus, 4 places below predicted and Atletico on -7VA who are the worse place statistically.  Only Espanyol escaped relegation as predicted with all 4 relegated sides coming from the 6 lowest rated and all 4 top side from the 4 highest rated.