Barcelona and Chelsea top the table.

First of all the explanations.

This is purely statistical and takes no account of squad building or managerial ability.

How it works: I look at the likely picks for the first eleven and take an average of the ability in Gk, Def, Mid , Att and the Top 18^th player ( unlikely you will need to go down any further )

Then using a formula developed in the first few seasons on the relevant importance of key positions. I calculate the ETOT the estimated total strength of the team.

There is some human input if you lack say 2 decent forwards in the first eleven or your 18^th players was 5 ratings below anyone else.

It is really tight between Barcelona ,depth vs Chelsea strength.  A few injuries would push it the way of Barcelona with Juventus a kind of halfway house between the two teams.

There is then a huge gap down to Porto a defensive based team and Arsenal and attacking force who could still trouble the top 3.

Real and Bayern are the next nearest challengers with Hellas perhaps a keeper away from a great squad.

Relegation cut of is around 225.5 there are therefore 7 teams realistically who could face the drop this season.  Maybe as said last season it is difficult to see Stoke surviving this season unless they pick up the scraps from the other lower ranked teams.  Milan also sit well beneath the comfort zone and will struggle.  Espanyol should survive if they avoid injuries, Hertha likewise.  This leaves Internacional , Bremen and Levante fighting it out for the last survival spot.

Interestingly D1 is half a point weaker than last season perhaps as a result of the unusually strong teams who were relegated..

Cruziero top of the league and top of the stats.

No one could doubt that a league winner with +5 VA should lead the stats, Sau Paulo the 2^nd place team in real life only figure 8^th in the stats despite a great season.

Montpellier are 2^nd in the stats they made the play offs beyond expectations. Independiente had the highest VA on +7 with Torino on +6.. Shaktar and St Etienne also over performed and should have a notable mention

Spartak have the lowest VA and PVA, should have been 3^rd but really never got started. Twente on -7 also were disappointing..

The 3rd 2nd 1st are 1st 2nd 3rd in the stats.

A great season by Fenerbache give them the highest VA in D4 at +11 and PVA at +4 and a promotion spot.  Celtic on the basis of finishing 3 positions above expected are second in the stats with leaders Wolfsburg in 3^rd. Sampdoria in 4^th are on +5 VA with a whole series of overperfomers on +7

Bruge,  Moscow and West ham all pushed away from danger and in some cases into the play offs and a notable mention to PSV.

This obviously means that there will be an equal number of underperformers.

CSKA should have been top but struggled to get in the playoffs. They have -5 VA and -0.67 PVA. Fiorentina and Koln have the worst VA on -8. Leicester, Dynamo Moscow, Villareal and Marseille also slipped well below expectations.

Dnipro +15 VA and +8 PVA fantastic achievement.

Relegation prospects to 2^nd spot , hard to beat really in terms of achievement and a great year by Dnipro.  Augsburg were much the most consistent team of the year and they needed to turn over their last 4 opponents to even win the title by 3 points. They finish 2^nd in the stats. Only Feyenoord and Sassuolo can get to +3VA but Sassuolo will be much happier with the play off spot.

Biggest under performance this year is probably a tie between Sporting on -5 VA and -0.67 VA, no wins in 8 games at one point probably cost them the title mid season. Zagreb also should have been playoff but finished 12^th . WBA also had -5VA as they slipped out the playoff spots.

3 of the 4 predicted relegation teams were relegated and they must look to rebuild next season.

A.C.Milan to of the stats , just above Bremen due to higher VA.

A very rare PVA tie was separated by the superior +7 VA of A.C. Milan as the top 2 teams in the table were also top of the stats. Perhaps the stats were skewed by the Internacional affair as they could have finished top but enough said about that the better.

Schalke had the best VA of + 8 and avoided relegation and were 4^th in the PVA stats table just below Ajax who are playoff bound. Also a nod to Villa who are steadily moving up the division and had a VA of +4

Spurs on -9 VA and -0.53 PVA were a big disappointment,  Santos avoided relegation by goal difference on -5 VA. Southampton the 3^rd lowest stats ranked team with -4 VA and – 0.43 PVA will look to ignore that and challenge for promotion from the play offs.

Hertha are the kind of the stats with a PVA of +2 , just over taking the champs Barcelona.

Few notes I calculate the stats leaders on PVA , positional value added.

Value added is simply how much above or below a team finishes statistically from its predicted ( pre ) position.

Positional value added takes into account how high up the table you finish. Otherwise Barcelona for example would have a value added of 0 or less most seasons. Thus success is important.

Hertha had a great season finishing 9 places above their predicted position, their VA of +9 is just above that of Stoke who were clear relegation material but finished a more the creditable 12^th, they finished third in the stats just above Juventus who had a much better season this year.

Real Madrid and Genoa rightly are at the lower end of the stats. Real had a PVA of -0.43 and Genoa – 0.33 both with a value added of -7 showing that they finished 7 place below their expected position, with Atletico just above them .  Lowest side Anderlecht had an up hill battle all season . Credit though to Stoke and Man City for avoiding the drop.

Swansea and Sao Paulo lead the pack.

Swansea are a power house team in D4 and should romp home at least to promotion.  Sao Paulo likewise while a point lower are 1 rating point ahead of the rest.  Spartak the only other team 219 plus are strong in midfield and attack but weaker at the back.

Seven teams then sit at 218 plus and we should consider these the play off contenders.  Cruziero are the pick of the bunch , no depth but high strength, a risky strategy that could pay off.

Boca are an interesting team, very weak in defence but strong in goal and up front.

If you need 217 to survive D4 then Atheltic Club and Lyon can also buy a ticket for the raffle.

Shaktar are much the weakest team, AZ lack depth but are well balanced and could finish much higher than 4^th from last.

CSKA or Wolfsburg for the title Lille and Besitkas for the 3rd spot?

While having no position solid above 90 CSKA still just lead the stats over Wolfsburg who are stronger in defence and midfield but weaker in attack. Lille go for the classic strong keeper / striker combo that works so well in the lower divisions. Besitkas look to get a good chunk of possesion

Beyond that a whole bunch of teams down to Cologne could feature in the playoffs. Since you really need to be 2018+ to surive in D3 that would seem to be the limit for any kind of promotion ambitions.

Teams that stick out in the play off crew are Leicester and Fenerbache with great keeper/midfield and keeper / attack combos respectively . The depth of Sampdoria, Villareal and Leicester could help them in the long term. Behind Besitkas I would see Leicester as a solid play off possibility.

Any team on 216 or less will have relegation concerns. The five teams do seem to be detached from the rest by some margin. Brugge have a clear problem in defence but are strong in attack. Lokomotiv, West Ham, PSV and Atalanta don't really have that option but West Ham and Atalanta do at least have depth to make a late season surge

Four teams battle out for 3 places all of whom can hit 90 plus in attack.

It always remains a good gamble that with weakening keeper / defence combo that a decent attack will unlock a win for your team.  Sporting perhaps have the best defence / attack balance which they gain while losing some depth.  Flamengo a great project side are a near match to them.  Augsburg weaker in defence but the most potent attacking option make up the top 3.

West Brom sit a little detached but in reality they are a fairly similar line up to the top 2.

Zagreb have a decent midfield and should get to the play off spots at least and Sassuolo’s 91 rated keeper Gulacsi could throw a spanner in the works of those attack minded teams.

To survive D2 you need around 220 so any team down to Hoffenheim could aim for promotion and have a decent chance of survival the following season in stark contrast to D2/D1.

Zenit maybe will have better luck in the cup than the league with a good keeper and some depth.  Teams below 219 were at risk last year but in reality it is that bunch of 218 or less that are in danger.

Kiev have a weakness in defence and midfield, similar to Dnipro but they have some more depth maybe to see them safe.  Chievo need to look at possession football ,  Lazio need to hope their keeper keeps them safe. Basel sit in difficult place in last place in most categories.

Internacional, Levante ,Southampton for the automatic slot with a raft of teams for the playoffs.

Alarmingly no team who could get promoted from D2 would finish outside the relegation zone in D1, so D2 teams have a hard job in balancing promotion and squad improvement.

Internacional are a solid 90 and have good depth, clear favourites for the top spot,  Levante are stronger in midfield and attack but less so at the back.   Southampton are the strongest attacking team and have a decent defence / midfield balance. Werder and Everton sit a little above the rest of the playoff pack, both going for attacking prowess to progress and maybe upset the top 3.

Spurs go for the balanced approach with Liverpool arguably more attack minded.  Lots of teams have a lot of depth, Santos could well manage a great cup run and AC Milan could finish higher if they can score a few.

Last year around 219 was relegation zone, so Roma will struggle although they are surely a work in progress. Newcastle and Galatasaray are weak at the back, with Schalke having midfield problems.

Can top team Barcelona hold off rivals Chelsea and Porto.

Barcelona have the best attack ,defence and joint best keeper. If they have a weaker point it could be slightly less depth than some rivals and depending on formation a weaker midfield.     Chelsea can match them in goal and beat them in midfield.

These two are clear of the pack but Porto should push them close at can match or beat Barca in midfield and have a potent front line. Juve have a similar set up and must be pushing for a top 4 finish this year.

Bayern should also have an option as they will suffer less from injuries with Real in a similar position.

Difficult to mention everyone but Hertha look to be an interesting prospect upfront , weaker at the back , should be many high scoring games.

222.53 was relegation zone so only really Stoke are in serious problems. Man City , PSG lack depth,  Leverkeusen have problems in midfield and attack but could be solid in defence .

The winner takes it all with Bordeaux taking 1^st in the stats and the league.

+8 VA , +9 PVA,  the perfect combo to win the league, with West Ham in 2^nd on +14 VA and 3^rd place Leicester on +9 VA. In fact the top 5 side in the stats were the top 5 in the league.

Olympic Lyon and AZ also had +8 VA and a great performance.

Oddly the top 6 teams in the predictions came in the lowest 6 places. Olympiacos, Spartak and Athletic Club were notable by their underperformance.

Crystal Palace +5 PVA the stats leaders.

Zagreb may have won the league but not the battle of the stats as Palace who also had +9 VA pushed them close.  Celta and Lokomotiv Moscow had +11 and +12 VA making them 2^nd and 3^rd in the PVA charts, notable +8 VA for PSV and +9 for Atalanta.

At the wrong end -12 VA for 2^nd ranked Dynamo Moscow leaves them in last place for PVA with predicted 4^th spot Swansea on -16 VA just above them.

2 teams who should have finished in the top 10 were relegated.

Galatasaray top the stats in 2^nd spot.

Some great over performance in D3.

Galatasaray in 2^nd with a VA of +9 and a PVA of +5.00 are the well deserved stats leaders.  Relegation favoured Dnipro made the playoffs and 2^nd spot in the stats table and an incredible +16 VA.

River Plate 3^rd in real life and the stats sit just above league winners Aston Villa.

Notable +6 VA for Chievo and Zenit.

Flamengo and Dinamo Zagreb had poor seasons, Flamengo -12 VA,  Zagreb could yet saved their season in the playoffs.

CSKA on -7 VA and relegation are also worth a mention.

Stoke the top the stats chart but “only “ make the play-offs.

Hellas may feel that they did what they had to but Stoke finishing 4^th and 8 places above where they should have been is a greater achievement statistically. Levante also finishing top half when tipped for relegation with a +10 VA is another stunning achievement.

Notably Sevilla also avoided relegation from D2 7 places above where predicted.

Werder , Southampton and Everton all had poor seasons missing out on the play off spots they should have got with Sassuolo being relegated on the lowest VA.

Barcelona top the table

Porto ,Bayern and Juventus close behind.

Under new management Barcelona who were predicted 2^nd spot, won the league with points to spare. Porto had a great season also in 2^nd spot in PVA.

Man City had the highest VA and their 9^th place was 6 above where predicted.

The worse performing team this year were Genoa a VA of -9 and PVA -0.62, with Chelsea and Real not far behind.

Three of the lowest four ranked teams were relegated with only Leverkeusen escaping .

A compact division 5 with a few exceptions.

Spartak hold the narrowest of leads over Olympiacos, though long term their additional depth should see them through. Sao Paulo in a state of flux but with just the midfield to sort out to balance up the team.  Sunderland in a similar boat but with a defence to service.

Then there is a gap to Boca, Athletic club and Montpellier who are all closely matched, although Boca get the award for best attack in the league.  As the bar for entry to D4 is sat at around 217.5 this should mean half the league have a chance of promotion directly or via the play off spot.

With only the sack race to fear, which sits around 215.5 , Malaga, AZ and St Ettiene will fancy their chances to stay above the slowly improving Independiente. Overall a slightly stronger division than last season largely due to Independiente’s improvement.  Although if you ignore them the score is exactly the same.

Top 3 out of sight? Play-offs for the rest ?

There are 3 clear favourites for the top 3 spots. Partizan have a great midfield and attack and they have the lead in the stats, closely followed by Dynamo Moscow who are a more defensive set up.   FC Augsburg have an attack to fear but are more vunerable at the back than the other two.  As a whole the league is slightly weaker but the challenge at the top is much as last season.  Looks like around 218 is needed to survive D3 so a whole host of teams could get promoted and do well the following season.

Villareal look a strong prospect with plenty of depth, Feyenoord look like they could mount a strong challenge.  While last season was a little odd , around 217.5 would leave you in relegation risk. Lokomotiv have too weak a defence and little depth, they could struggle.  Celta need to sort themselves a keeper rapido. Atalanta and Cruziero have a decent enough attack but remain vunerable at the back.

Tight at the top is Division 3 the place to be?

No real out and out favourite in the cross road division of Top 100.  Zagreb lead the pack strong attack but a little weaker in defence than some. They are closely followed by Villa who have a better keeper and midfield.  Flamengo , WBA and Man Utd could be covered by a tea towel all are strong in midfield and attack an ongoing theme amongst D3 contenders.

The 90 + Attack runs out past 6^th spot. You would need 219.75 to survive in D2 so teams down to River Plate could push for promotion without compromising their current set up.

Looking at the lower end  last year less than 218.00 meant relegation this leaves Chievo. Basel , Celtic , Dnipro could be in danger. . Celtic and Dnipro in particular are in danger of shipping too many goals.  Basel may be o.k. but lack the strength in depth if they get in trouble.    In general terms.   The division is 0.3 per team higher than last season. The top end is a little weaker but there are more teams closer to those playoff spots.

Two teams are predicted a rapid return to D1

Benfica and Hellas are ranked as highly as PSG from last season and should dominate this season.

Benfica are a more solid outfit and have strength in depth beyond that of Hellas who are more attack minded.

Liege , Everton and Southampton fill the next 3 spots all with o.k. keepers and defence, they are going for possession football to shield the back line.  Spurs and Bremen may lack the firepower to go for promotion this year.

224.7 is the cut off to survive D1 so all but the top 2 have a lot of improving to do.

As for the cup Bremen have the capabilities to compete for league or cup.

At the wrong end last year 219.61 was relegation , 219.4 the previous year, so it is getting tougher to survive D2 as well.

Therfore Lazio, Kiev , Levante and Sevilla are all in trouble, all have decent keepers but a weak defence to exploit.  Kiev may have the fire power options to escape though which could leave Hamburg or Newcastle looking over their shoulders.