Will Augsburg double bounce?

Certainly seems that last the champs from D5 are the clear favourites to win D4. A very strong attack, midfield and plenty of depth should be enough. Zenit are half a point behind but should be confident of at least auto promotion, they can claim a well balanced team that perhaps lacks depth. Their nearest rivals are Ajax and Lille who sit a fair chunk above the rest making an interesting battle for 3 & 4^th. Lille have a potent midfield, attack and keeper so should fancy winning the possession game.  Ajax though could do with a better keeper , so I would make Lille the favourites from 3^rd spot.

Around 219.5 should guarantee survival in D3 so any team down to Stuttgart who are the last “playoff” team could survive. They could be the team to spring a surprise into the top 3 with that strong attacking line up.

Down the wrong end of the table while hard to judge from last year 217.5 could be enough to survive.

Boca will fancy their chances , even if they lack a lot of depth, Santos will surely be bringing in a stronger keeper, which would punt them 3 or 4 places higher. Sassuolo won’t fancy double relegation, but can plucky Atalanta 1.7 points adrift survive? Div 4 is around 0.3 weaker than last season

Flamengo lead the way with Everton hoping to make up ground.

If an 88 rated keeper is good enough for D3 then Flamengo who strongest attack and midfield in D3 are clear favourites to win the league. Everton maybe a little weaker but day in day out they also have more depth. Liege would hope that a potent keeper and striker would keep them in the hunt for the title along with Sunderland who are lacking depth but are a well balanced team. Life looks tough for the promoted teams with on Galatasaray in the top 10. Relegated Udinese and Celtic could hope for the play offs.  With D2 being so much weaker 221.2 would give you a chance of survival so 9^th place Celta or above remain realistic prospects.

219 could well be the cut off for relegation this year. This would leave Fiorentina and Dnipro well short of what is needed, more or less similar teams, decent keeper but lacking enough punch in midfield or defence to keep them safe.  Hoffenheim have a stronger team but a weaker keeper and do lack in some depth.  Everton look like a really strong cup side.

Genoa lead the stats but will their keeper let them down?

More than a whole rating point above their rivals and leaders in 2 of the stats Genoa have 1 flaw. They should still get promoted back to D1 but not as champions as the stats suggest. Internacional are in my view a more formidable opposition , they top and tail a strong side and just lead Stoke in the stats. Stoke have a great deal of depth and could be a great cup team but maybe need a stronger keeper for D2 standards.  That can’t be said about Hertha who again are a clear top and tail team , but with good depth besides.

Promoted Malaga should hope at least for the playoffs, however any team hoping to last in D1 would now need a 224 rating, too tough a task for all but the top 4 in D2 at the moment.

Man Utd look like sure fire relegation fodder by D2 standards they are weak in all areas and look set fair to drop.  Joining them most likely will be Sampdoria. An iconic captain and manager will not be enough to save a team 2 pts away from the rest.  Normally I would be look at 222 for the cut off point for relegation, that could leave half the teams in the division in trouble , though Milan and Anderlecht do seem to be adrift from the pack above them. 11^th – 14^th are separated by 0.04 points which is nothing, managerial skill will prevail.

Notably the division is 0.5 pts weaker per team on average.

Usual blurb for new managers.

All data was gathered at the end of the season , new transfer deals might not be included.

I work out the likely average rating in each position and the lowest rated player in the top 18 excluding multiple keepers. If the lowest player is much lower I apply common sense to not skew that data. This is fed into a formula to produce the ETOT and the expected finishing position.

Dortmund and Verona should be battling it out for the top spot with a clear 1 pt lead over Porto. Both have potent attacks but Hellas benefit maybe more from the excellent keeper. Porto with less depth match Verona in most other areas. Chelsea could maybe do with a stronger midfield to win the title but they have in team options to adjust if they wish.  Juventus are swimming in high rated players which is why they just top Bayern the 7^th rated team. Inter are the highest promoted team and should finish mid table.  223 would normally be enough for survival but only 2 teams Espanyol and Schalke fall below that mark.  Schalke maybe ok with that decent keeper. Espanyol on the other hand hope their strong attack can score more than they let in but with a weaker midfield they look favourite to drop.  Cologne lack serious depth and despite and good midfield attack combo they are really weak at the back.

Juventus should win the cups with Sporting also in with a chance.

As a whole the division in 0.25 points higher rated than this year.

Augsburg rise from the ashes. 

+4 VA and a promotion.

Always good to see a return to form and that is what Augsburg have achieved just besting real life 2^nd place Dynamo Moscow on +7 VA.

Atalanta have +13 VA and well deserve a play off spot.  Big shout outs to Feyeboord +10VA , Lyon +8 VA also in the playoff and the +11 of Partizan.

It all went wrong for Lazio , should have won the league but on -15VA a dismal performance.  Fellow potential high flyers AZ an Independiente suffered the same fate

Playoff bound Montpellier lead the stats.

+12 VA the highest in the league, a great achievement for Montpellier.

Promoted Monaco with +4 VA come 2^nd in the stats , just above Boca on +8 VA. Think I was a little harsh on myself in the newsfeed as +9 VA and 4^th in the stats is a good performance for Sevilla, though Lokomotivs 20^th to 10^th could match that on +10VA.

Ajax on -10VA who should have been in the playoffs were last in the stats , above Stuttgart who should have come 2^nd and relegated Rubin.

Again some big variance in D4 , although it is often a bit mad.

Season 23 Division 3 Stats and Facts.

Firstly sorry for doing this again but SM decided to rename a couple of teams so they didn’t copy and paste correctly.

Malaga are the well deserved champions of D3 , a similar VA to Cruziero but one place higher in the league, both with well deserved promotions. Sampdoria sit third in the stats , honouring their leader Mr Ballotell.  Good to see Fiorentina avoiding relegation the other notable VA gain.  Worst performer were Everton but they can still find redemption via the playoffs .

Bremen have the lowest VA of -12 with Palace and Liege being the notable underperformers along with relegated Lille

Swansea promoted last season head the stats this season.

+12VA and a playoff spot sees Swansea beat 2^nd place team Schalke who had +4VA . River Plate had a remarkable season , relegation candidates or so it seemed but they make the playoffs with a remarkable +13VA. Division 2 seems to have been much affected by the comings and goings mid season. Cologne on +9VA and Villa on +8 really pushed on this season.

Stoke were the big underperforming team on -9 VA , just worse than PSG with Fenerbache just above them. Valencia suffer their 2^nd relegation in a row on -7VA.

Barcelona  resurgence sees them top of the stats but is this fair?

Usual blurb: Teams are ranked by positional value added. This is basically the value added +1  divided by the finishing position. That way higher ranked teams can still rank highly in the stats.

Barca have a PVA of +2.33 and the highest VA of +6 in the league , they beat Hellas who still got a +2 VA and dominated the league. Arsenal on +4 VA were 3^rd in the stats with Levante and Espanyol on +5 VA being notable over achievers. Lowest ranked in the stats were the surprising relegated Genoa with -7 VA , Man City and Juventus had -4VA.

Two potential relegation candidates avoided the drop in Leverkusen and Espanyol.