Saints or sinners?

Southampton do like to be beside the seaside with +13 VA and +7 PVA , they gain auto promotion and top the stats. Liege the champs are 2^nd in the stats with the 2^nd highest PVA just above 3^rd place finishers Galatasaray.

A big VA of +10 for Fiorentina sees them avoid relegation, and +7 for CSKA with +6 for Dnipro are the other big stand out performances this season.

Should have been champs Flamengo are the lowest ranked team in the stats , they didn’t even get to  the playoffs. Sunderland slumped to -8 VA and Celtic who should have made the playoff got relegated on -11 VA joining Celta Vigo D4 next season.  Has to be concerning that such highly ranked teams who are better by a whole point than any team than the division they drop into should get an easy ride next season..

+16 VA ,+8.5 PVA AC Milan top the stats.

Champs and 2^nd place Villa would normally have headed the stats but Milan’s mighty seasonal rise was too much to beat. Noticable big VA of +7 for Spurs who make the playoffs and Zagreb who just lose out.  Cruziero and “relegation fodder “Man Utd also had great seasons and a big VA.  However, where there are swings there are roundabouts and the roundabout has turned for a number of teams.

Liverpool had a dire season and somehow got themselves relegated when they could have been promoted , they rightly get the lowest PVA and VA in the division.  Genoa still in the playoffs mind you but they and Internacional should have been looking at straight promotion. PSG also had a huge negative VA and found themselves relegated. A much bigger swing than D1. 2 of the 4 predicted relegated team were relegated and had PSG and Liverpool not binned their seasons that would have been 3, still ifs buts and maybes butter no crumpets and those who stay up do so on their merits.

The best season ever for Leicester , the stats say yes.

For the unitiated: The final stats position is calculated from positional value added: That is the value added with final position taken into account. After all if the 8^th ranked team finishes 2^nd it is more of an achievement than the 19^th ranked team finishing 7^th.

Leicester top the stats in D1 with +3.5 PVA and +6 VA, they just beat the champs Hellas who did all they could to win the title yet again. Espanyol buoyed by Benzema have the highest VA at +12 and are third overall. Man City are the obvious remaining stand out team on +4 VA. No other great performances stand out.

At the wrong end of the table Dortmund have the lowest PVA , the first ranked team finish 5^th. Juventus on -9 VA are the 2^nd lowest ranked finishing a poor 14^th just below fellow Italians Inter. Two of the predicted relegation teams were relegated, and the other two were the 15^th and 16^th ranked team.

AZ are 2 points above the rest , who will be 2^nd?

AZ should win D5 and even D4, this should be a walk in the park for them. Kiev and Torino look like solid 2^nd and 3^rd place outfit, Kiev pack a punch upfront, while Torino are more defensive minded.

Around 217.5 would be survival in D4 so as usual in D5 a host of teams could seek promotion or wait a while to build their strength.  There is a very narrow range of teams from 5^th place Rubin down to 11^th place Besitkas who will at least for a while have much more bite in their team.

Independiente look the cream of the play off crop with a well balanced team with some depth.

With no relegation there is only the fairly palid sack race to avoid. Athletic club are still being rebuilt , Chievo need to sort out their defence and midfield. Lazio seems to have continued to underperformed despite the youth structure under the previous manager.

Marseille could be a good cup team and may make a late run with all that depth. D5 is slightly weaker than last season.

Will Augsburg double bounce?

Certainly seems that last the champs from D5 are the clear favourites to win D4. A very strong attack, midfield and plenty of depth should be enough. Zenit are half a point behind but should be confident of at least auto promotion, they can claim a well balanced team that perhaps lacks depth. Their nearest rivals are Ajax and Lille who sit a fair chunk above the rest making an interesting battle for 3 & 4^th. Lille have a potent midfield, attack and keeper so should fancy winning the possession game.  Ajax though could do with a better keeper , so I would make Lille the favourites from 3^rd spot.

Around 219.5 should guarantee survival in D3 so any team down to Stuttgart who are the last “playoff” team could survive. They could be the team to spring a surprise into the top 3 with that strong attacking line up.

Down the wrong end of the table while hard to judge from last year 217.5 could be enough to survive.

Boca will fancy their chances , even if they lack a lot of depth, Santos will surely be bringing in a stronger keeper, which would punt them 3 or 4 places higher. Sassuolo won’t fancy double relegation, but can plucky Atalanta 1.7 points adrift survive? Div 4 is around 0.3 weaker than last season

Flamengo lead the way with Everton hoping to make up ground.

If an 88 rated keeper is good enough for D3 then Flamengo who strongest attack and midfield in D3 are clear favourites to win the league. Everton maybe a little weaker but day in day out they also have more depth. Liege would hope that a potent keeper and striker would keep them in the hunt for the title along with Sunderland who are lacking depth but are a well balanced team. Life looks tough for the promoted teams with on Galatasaray in the top 10. Relegated Udinese and Celtic could hope for the play offs.  With D2 being so much weaker 221.2 would give you a chance of survival so 9^th place Celta or above remain realistic prospects.

219 could well be the cut off for relegation this year. This would leave Fiorentina and Dnipro well short of what is needed, more or less similar teams, decent keeper but lacking enough punch in midfield or defence to keep them safe.  Hoffenheim have a stronger team but a weaker keeper and do lack in some depth.  Everton look like a really strong cup side.

Genoa lead the stats but will their keeper let them down?

More than a whole rating point above their rivals and leaders in 2 of the stats Genoa have 1 flaw. They should still get promoted back to D1 but not as champions as the stats suggest. Internacional are in my view a more formidable opposition , they top and tail a strong side and just lead Stoke in the stats. Stoke have a great deal of depth and could be a great cup team but maybe need a stronger keeper for D2 standards.  That can’t be said about Hertha who again are a clear top and tail team , but with good depth besides.

Promoted Malaga should hope at least for the playoffs, however any team hoping to last in D1 would now need a 224 rating, too tough a task for all but the top 4 in D2 at the moment.

Man Utd look like sure fire relegation fodder by D2 standards they are weak in all areas and look set fair to drop.  Joining them most likely will be Sampdoria. An iconic captain and manager will not be enough to save a team 2 pts away from the rest.  Normally I would be look at 222 for the cut off point for relegation, that could leave half the teams in the division in trouble , though Milan and Anderlecht do seem to be adrift from the pack above them. 11^th – 14^th are separated by 0.04 points which is nothing, managerial skill will prevail.

Notably the division is 0.5 pts weaker per team on average.

Usual blurb for new managers.

All data was gathered at the end of the season , new transfer deals might not be included.

I work out the likely average rating in each position and the lowest rated player in the top 18 excluding multiple keepers. If the lowest player is much lower I apply common sense to not skew that data. This is fed into a formula to produce the ETOT and the expected finishing position.

Dortmund and Verona should be battling it out for the top spot with a clear 1 pt lead over Porto. Both have potent attacks but Hellas benefit maybe more from the excellent keeper. Porto with less depth match Verona in most other areas. Chelsea could maybe do with a stronger midfield to win the title but they have in team options to adjust if they wish.  Juventus are swimming in high rated players which is why they just top Bayern the 7^th rated team. Inter are the highest promoted team and should finish mid table.  223 would normally be enough for survival but only 2 teams Espanyol and Schalke fall below that mark.  Schalke maybe ok with that decent keeper. Espanyol on the other hand hope their strong attack can score more than they let in but with a weaker midfield they look favourite to drop.  Cologne lack serious depth and despite and good midfield attack combo they are really weak at the back.

Juventus should win the cups with Sporting also in with a chance.

As a whole the division in 0.25 points higher rated than this year.

Augsburg rise from the ashes. 

+4 VA and a promotion.

Always good to see a return to form and that is what Augsburg have achieved just besting real life 2^nd place Dynamo Moscow on +7 VA.

Atalanta have +13 VA and well deserve a play off spot.  Big shout outs to Feyeboord +10VA , Lyon +8 VA also in the playoff and the +11 of Partizan.

It all went wrong for Lazio , should have won the league but on -15VA a dismal performance.  Fellow potential high flyers AZ an Independiente suffered the same fate

Playoff bound Montpellier lead the stats.

+12 VA the highest in the league, a great achievement for Montpellier.

Promoted Monaco with +4 VA come 2^nd in the stats , just above Boca on +8 VA. Think I was a little harsh on myself in the newsfeed as +9 VA and 4^th in the stats is a good performance for Sevilla, though Lokomotivs 20^th to 10^th could match that on +10VA.

Ajax on -10VA who should have been in the playoffs were last in the stats , above Stuttgart who should have come 2^nd and relegated Rubin.

Again some big variance in D4 , although it is often a bit mad.