All or nothing the new Division 4 theory.

No team in D4 can be strong all areas, even if you have a strong overall team, probably you will lack depth.

So Sevilla are at least for now the favorites and over last season and the preseason pushed their team from 14^th or 15^th rated to 1^st. The 2^nd strongest attack and midfield , with plenty of depth. Celtic are the most balanced team of the big 3 and have some depth, much more so that Boca who really are a 1 man band with Salah leading the line.  The playoff crew should see Brugge with their good attack, Lille who are a well rounded side and Dynamo getting 3 of the 4 places.  Olympiacos also sit just above the mini pack on 219.5 or more. To survive D3 you need 220 so there are 7 teams who could get promoted and then do a partial rebuild without throwing the team in the bin.

Celta and Stuttgart will be relegated if they fail to bring in talent,  Bremen are also a player or 2 short of safety. Feyenoord are just generally weaker but with plenty of depth could overcome their Dutch rivals. Last season 217 was kind of the cut off for relegation but this year 219 or less could leave you vulnerable.

A very tightly packed division in the middle with 1 pt separating 5^th to 17^th

Everton appear to be the favourites for the title with a clear lead over Anderlecht or have the best attack in the league and should get at least 2^nd.

PSG are also in the big 3 with a sizeable gap above Flamengo who may be relying on their great keeper.

Then we get the pack Sunderland down to Hoffenheim. Sure Sunderland are half a point better than Fenerbache and have a strong attack but each team below them have strengths and weaknesses.  CSKA stand out as a top and tail team which often works at this level, they St Etienne, West Ham also have good depth.

Having said this you will need 221 to survive in the division above which realistically means Sunderland or above could have a good chance if promoted. Less than 219.3 is probably relegation territory. Fiorentina look to be shy of the rest and could well struggle with overachievers Dnipro just having strong enough attack to maybe survive.  Basel have a stronger offense with Roma favoring a more balanced approach.

Will WBA live up to the hype?

WBA have brought in a number of star players

they sit 3 points higher than last season a massive gain that should see them promoted.

Leverkusen in 2^nd should so long as their keeper holds up gain the 2^nd auto spot, with Genoa also with a weak keeper looking to move into 3^rd.  Stoke though may be better placed almost as strong as their rivals but with a better keeper and much more depth, they look up for a good cup run.

There are a good number of top and tail teams such as Internacional, Benfica, Liege, River Plate maybe even Zagreb who will look to avoid the centre of the park and hold off the stronger attacking teams while sneaking in a goal or two.  Of those Benfica look to have most options but do lack depth. You would need 225+ to survive D1so other than WBA any other promoted side is likely to be relegated the following season, which I suppose is kind of how things really are.

At time of writing Man Utd and Schalke have totalled their teams in a rebuild, they will get relegated with sides so poor but presumably will do something about it as the season progresses.  This may only leave 2 other relegation spots.  221 ish last season left teams vulnerable, since no team has a rubbish attack the weakness at the back for Southampton, Hamburg and especially Galatasaray has to be an issue.

Strength or Depth you decide.

Usual preamble:  I take the average rating in the 4 main positions, plus the rating of the 18^th highest player. I ignore multiple keepers and can add some human input if the 18^th rated player is far lower or there are odd combos of teams with 5 FC in the top 11…for example. Etot is then calculated from a tried and trusted formula. In case of a tie average is used.

If they can keep it going all season Dortmund have the first eleven to beat Hellas, but Hellas have huge amounts of depth.  Both teams are hugely higher rated than the rest. Chelsea in 3^rd place in the stats also lack any kind of depth, maybe now with the 5 subs this is even more of a problem, but on their day, they could challenge the top 2, as potentially could Porto, maybe if they adopt a defensive approach against those 2 sides. Barcelona would fancy a top 5 finish this season with one of the strongest attacking lines in the league. Over performers Leicester probably just need a high rated keeper to achieve even more than last season

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Of the promoted sides Villa should thrive in their new surroundings. Milan look set to struggle, as do Spurs. Hertha may well top and tail their way out of trouble. Cologne presumably will find at least an 87 rated keeper otherwise they are as good as relegated.

D1 is slightly weaker 0.1 down from last season.

Turkish delight, certainly a rose tinted season for Besitkas.

No one could deny Besitkas had a great season finishing 1^st when 10^th place was on  the cards at the start of the season. +9 VA is the joint highest in the division along side 3^rd spot Feyenoord who gain auto promotion. Newcastle in 3^rd place in the stats get to the playoffs as do Marseille on +4 VA.  Notable positive VA of +6 for Lyon and Napoli showing the progress made this season.

The lowest ranked teams should have been amongst the highest . Torino should have been promoted on -11 VA along with Kazan who had a season to forget.  AZ got to the playoffs but unsurprisingly were beaten by a resurgent Marseille. 4 of the 5 lowest ranked teams unsurprising finished in 4 of the 5 lowest places, showing there is a lot still to do. Slow cooked meals are one thing but you have to eat the meal eventually.

Roma tops the stats just ahead of champs Zenit.

The top 3 in the league table fair a little different in the stats.  Roma in 3^rd had a great +7 VA, placing them above the champs Zenit. Augsburg who finished 2^nd actually placed 1 place below expected leaving them a neutral score and 13 in the stats.

Playoff bound St Etienne are 3^rd in the stats, literally just above Sevilla who have the highest VA in the division and just missed out.  Credit also to Sassuolo who also had +8 VA and Boca who also avoid relegation on +5 VA.  Bremen also had a great season and made the playoffs on + 4 VA.

Twente finish at the wrong end and -11 VA tells a story , in fact 4 playoff potential teams finished in the lowest 4 places with Dynamo Moscow, Stuttgart and Lille having low VA this season  Atalanta and Santos were relegated as predicted, joining Bordeaux who were predicted to finish 15^th.

Saints or sinners?

Southampton do like to be beside the seaside with +13 VA and +7 PVA , they gain auto promotion and top the stats. Liege the champs are 2^nd in the stats with the 2^nd highest PVA just above 3^rd place finishers Galatasaray.

A big VA of +10 for Fiorentina sees them avoid relegation, and +7 for CSKA with +6 for Dnipro are the other big stand out performances this season.

Should have been champs Flamengo are the lowest ranked team in the stats , they didn’t even get to  the playoffs. Sunderland slumped to -8 VA and Celtic who should have made the playoff got relegated on -11 VA joining Celta Vigo D4 next season.  Has to be concerning that such highly ranked teams who are better by a whole point than any team than the division they drop into should get an easy ride next season..

+16 VA ,+8.5 PVA AC Milan top the stats.

Champs and 2^nd place Villa would normally have headed the stats but Milan’s mighty seasonal rise was too much to beat. Noticable big VA of +7 for Spurs who make the playoffs and Zagreb who just lose out.  Cruziero and “relegation fodder “Man Utd also had great seasons and a big VA.  However, where there are swings there are roundabouts and the roundabout has turned for a number of teams.

Liverpool had a dire season and somehow got themselves relegated when they could have been promoted , they rightly get the lowest PVA and VA in the division.  Genoa still in the playoffs mind you but they and Internacional should have been looking at straight promotion. PSG also had a huge negative VA and found themselves relegated. A much bigger swing than D1. 2 of the 4 predicted relegated team were relegated and had PSG and Liverpool not binned their seasons that would have been 3, still ifs buts and maybes butter no crumpets and those who stay up do so on their merits.

The best season ever for Leicester , the stats say yes.

For the unitiated: The final stats position is calculated from positional value added: That is the value added with final position taken into account. After all if the 8^th ranked team finishes 2^nd it is more of an achievement than the 19^th ranked team finishing 7^th.

Leicester top the stats in D1 with +3.5 PVA and +6 VA, they just beat the champs Hellas who did all they could to win the title yet again. Espanyol buoyed by Benzema have the highest VA at +12 and are third overall. Man City are the obvious remaining stand out team on +4 VA. No other great performances stand out.

At the wrong end of the table Dortmund have the lowest PVA , the first ranked team finish 5^th. Juventus on -9 VA are the 2^nd lowest ranked finishing a poor 14^th just below fellow Italians Inter. Two of the predicted relegation teams were relegated, and the other two were the 15^th and 16^th ranked team.

AZ are 2 points above the rest , who will be 2^nd?

AZ should win D5 and even D4, this should be a walk in the park for them. Kiev and Torino look like solid 2^nd and 3^rd place outfit, Kiev pack a punch upfront, while Torino are more defensive minded.

Around 217.5 would be survival in D4 so as usual in D5 a host of teams could seek promotion or wait a while to build their strength.  There is a very narrow range of teams from 5^th place Rubin down to 11^th place Besitkas who will at least for a while have much more bite in their team.

Independiente look the cream of the play off crop with a well balanced team with some depth.

With no relegation there is only the fairly palid sack race to avoid. Athletic club are still being rebuilt , Chievo need to sort out their defence and midfield. Lazio seems to have continued to underperformed despite the youth structure under the previous manager.

Marseille could be a good cup team and may make a late run with all that depth. D5 is slightly weaker than last season.