Fiorentina +16 VA lead the stats in the wildest division of them all.

Division 4 was incredibly tight at the start and this has led to some mad VA and PVA.

Fiorentina top of the stats and 2^nd in the league with a PVA of +8.50 lead league winners Brugge who were 3 places above expected. Sevilla with +10 VA make the playoffs and Napoli who should have relegated also have +10 VA.  Montpellier on +5 VA and Wolfsburg on +4 are notable over performers.

When it went wrong it really did. Augsburg who should have won the league were relegated and Ajax have had a mighty fall on -10 VA.  Tornio also relegated on – 10 VA. The only predicted relegation team to drop were predictably Atalanta.  6 of the top 7 did finish in those positions.

Swans sail away majestically with 1^st in league best VA and PVA in division.

Always a strong favourite to over perform with a lethal attack Swansea never the less finished 6 places above expected. Playoff bound palace 2^nd in the stats with a VA of +6 are ranked just above Zagreb who came in 2^nd in the league.  Another team with +6 VA is Dnipro; while finishing 9^th they should have been 15^th so a return to form to the overperformers of the past.  A shout out to Beddows and Sampdoria who on +4VA were the other notable over achievers.

It all went wrong for Liege who just escaped relegation on -9 VA and Galatasaray who didn’t also on – 9 VA.  Borussia Monchengladbach also fell into the relegation hole on -6 VA.  The top of the table was fairly close to what was predicted and lower down there was a fair correlation with the predicted relegation teams usually 2 to 3 places higher if they escaped.

+14 VA Milan top the stats

A team that was a relegation favourite gets auto promotion is a great success story. 5 pts clear of 4^th and a well-deserved promotion for AC Milan.

Man City may feel that they did all they could and won the league with room to spare in the end but that is what they should have achieved so they are 2^nd in the stats. Play off Stoke on +4 VA and their companions in the lottery Hertha are 3^rd and 4^th in the stats.  River Plate also escaped the relegation zone and have +5 VA.

The big flops in division 2 were relegated Celta on -5VA and more so Everton on -10 who also go down.  Liverpool and Sporting would hope for much better next season.

Werder and Southampton were relegated as predicted, 7/8 of the predicted top 8 finished in those positions. Perhaps indicating the top of D2 in less random than the lower half.

All Hail Hellas.

For those new to the league VA = Value added , how many places above your predicted position your club finishes.

PVA = Positional value added, which takes into account where you finished.

The top of the table leaves you little room to get a good PVA in D1. Hellas finished 1 place better than they should and top the stats and the league.  Chelsea who finished 1 place behind are also 2^nd in the stats, with over performing Sao Paulo with the best league VA of +6 3^rd in the stats. A shout out to Geno also 4^th in the stats on +4 VA.

The only shout out underperformers were Juventus, 4 places below predicted and Atletico on -7VA who are the worse place statistically.  Only Espanyol escaped relegation as predicted with all 4 relegated sides coming from the 6 lowest rated and all 4 top side from the 4 highest rated.

Crazy! The best team in D5 would be the best team in D4.

Not completely clear of the rest but Independiente would top D4 if they were in it. No weaknesses and would expect to pop 2 or 3 against most teams,  anything other than promotion is a flop this year. Bordeaux approach the 220 mark but just lack a strong keeper.  AZ would expect to challenge deep into the season especially with that potent attack. Lazio top and tail well but lack depth. Kazan similarly have a good keeper / attacker combo but also lack depth.

It is a relatively soft landing into D4 any team over 217 would survive with little change.  Any team down to Basel should look to promotion or at least a playoff place.  Feyenoord could well go deep in the cup despite their 16^th ranking.  Partizan will probably finish higher than their ranking suggests due to the strong attack. Athletic club and Newcastle could well lack enough possession to make progress. Division 5 has shown some improvement this season with an increase in average rating of 0.5 points.

The tightest division so far, a 9-way tie for first spot?

A quick excuse for 3 or 4 months down the line. There are only 3.4 points from first to last, so literally any team could win the league, some are just a bit more favoured than others.

The top 3 do sit a little above the rest, Augsburg look a well-balanced team with tons of depth which should lend well to no surprises.  Lille have a stronger keeper but a weaker defence which could be a concern with some of the strong attacks in this league. CSKA sit in third and will be waiting for their keeper to rise otherwise they would have been in second spot.  The next 5 clubs are separated by .4 points.  Ajax top and tale with little depth, they will need luck on their side.  Monaco may fancy their chances more with that good attack and keeper combo with added depth on the side.

Santo and Torino go down to 87 rating in their top 18, Torino in particular look to be a great cup prospect.  Unlike other divisions it doesn’t fall off a cliff but as 219 will be needed to survive in the next division those should be the promoted teams.

217.7 was the rough cut off for relegation. This leaves 7 contenders from St-Etienne down in peril. Of those teams St-Etienne have a weaker keeper which will cost them. PSV lack depth, like their Dutch cousins how will they prosper as the season continues.  Atalanta have the best Attack / Keeper combo, that is usually a good move. Sevilla and Montpellier have plenty of depth, Fiorentina and Napoli have decent balanced teams. If I were to pick 4 teams away from the stats It would be Napoli (midfield weakness) St Etienne (Keeper weakness) PSV (no depth) (Atalanta weak defence) who will struggle the most.

Division 4 is 0.5 points weaker than last season but as previously mentioned much more tightly packed.

Inter a solid 90 team in Division 3, not for much longer!

Inter have a team which would be mid table in Division 1 and all but guaranteed promotion in D2. Should be a walk over for them. There is then a crop of 8 or 9 teams who could challenge for the promotion places.

Flamengo look to be solid second favourites solid for D3,  strong attack and good keeper.  Zagreb in 3^rd are the classic lower division top and tail team maybe less depth than the rivals above them.  Hamburg shouldbe confident of at least a playoff spot of their high rated keeper can perform as well as he should. Liege likewise have a strong keeper and a good attack, continuing the theme at the top of the rankings. Sunderland are a well balanced team with no real weakness.

Swansea have a good attack but the keeper is surely a sore point that will be attacked by other managers.

The cut off for survival in D2 is 221 so Galatasaray, West Ham and with a little work Malaga and Spurs could also feature in the playoff battle.

219 rating points was the relegation cut off last season.  This would leave Twente who are a work in progress,  Hoffenheim with their low rated Keeper,  Sassuolo who must improve their defence and Stuttgart in the drop zone.  Up for the cup? Swansea should be able to put out a decent reserve side to battle for a knock out prize.

Division 3 is 0.2 points weaker than last season with the two outliers of Twente and Inter more or less cancelling each other out. However the mid ranked teams are slightly higher rated which suggest more of a scramble for the last playoff spots and the weaker teams losing contact more quickly than normal.

Man City to be promoted? Who comes with them.

Other than top 18 Man City lead every other category. They would be at least top 10 in Division 1 so anything other than 1^st place will be seen as a fail by the fans and pundits.  There are then 7 teams in for a shout at  auto promotion and the playoffs. Levante will be clear favourites for 2^nd spot.  Internacional may get off to a slower start than their rivals but a mighty 88 top 18 means they will have no problems with injuries or suspensions unless really unlucky.  Sporting are really strong up front but do lack depth, Schalke are a solid 90 ranked team , sitting just above Stoke who offer a slightly weaker defence.  Everton round out the super 7 challengers , maybe they are a keeper away from guaranteed playoff places.  To survive D1 it looks like the cut off is 224. So in reality these would be the only teams really gunning for promotion.

Of the rest maybe PSG if they can sort out a new keeper, Anderlecht look solid throughout but could do with bolstering the midfield.  Liverpool and Udinese fancy a cup run this season.

At the lower end I would normally say the cut off would be 218 for promotion but this year D2 is different.  The average at 222.87 is a point or more stronger across the board.  There isn’t a massive gap from Werder to Udinese.  Werder for example, lack depth but are a solid 88 team.  River Plate have a decent Midfield but are weaker at the back. Southampton lack depth but have 3 ratings at 89. AC Milan have plenty of depth . It will be tough in D2 this season and at the lower end injuries will account for at least 2 or more clubs being relegated which does leave me pondering about Werder, River Plate, Southampton maybe WBA and Koln. A relatively easy fix to get that top 18 rating above 85?

Stats and Facts

Will three teams really beast Chelsea?

For anyone unsure of how the stats work please read the following:

I look at the likely players in the 4 key positions, GK, DEF,MID,ATT. I try to match it to the normal formation where possible. The average is calculated in each position. The TOP18 is the lowest player in the top 18 who isn’t a keeper. On rare occasions there is human input if the 18^th player is much lower than the rest and unlikely to play. This is then this is fed into a magic formula to give the ETOT which calculate the rankings. Simples!

Dortmund sit a little above Hellas this year, although they have a weaker keeper and attack than their rivals. Hellas also have much better depth than Dortmund and I think they will bide their time to some extent.  Porto are a match for Dortmund in most areas except defence and even less depth. Chelsea have the best keeper and many options in attack or midfield but will falter if they get a lot of injuries.

Juventus are the best of the rest but are 1.7 points shy of Chelsea which is a huge margin.  Bayern , Atletico and of course Barcelona could still challenge for the title.  Sao Paulo look the best placed of the promoted teams.

Any team in the 222 range will struggle to make any progress in such a tough league.  Espanyol look like cannon fodder early on , although with good depth they may not suffer as much as Villa who lack strength and depth at the moment.  Fenerbache perhaps the surprise promotes are a tad stronger than Villa with a bit more strength through the squad.

This leaves an open space where almost any team from Benfica down could fall into. Leverkeusen could be good for a cup run .

Overall D1 is around 0.1 points per team weaker than last season but this is marginal.

PSV head the stats 2^nd place in the league.

+11 VA is a huge achievement in any league which is why PSV sit above fellow promotes Santos and Napoli who have +9 VA to boot. A cracking performance by Newcastle +10 VA when they were predicted to be the lowest rung on the ladder.

O.K. so D5 is for rebuilds if that is what you want this could explain 4 -10 VA for Shaktar, Dynamo Kiev, Lazio and Independiente.

Stuttgart +3.33 PVA head the stats over 3 playoff teams.

+9 VA and promotion a just reward for Stuttgart who fought well all season. They sit above Montpellier on +12VA and Fiorentina , who both were relegation fodder early season. Dnipro the wonder team are 4 in the stats , and they got the playoff win. Malaga and Flamengo the auto promoted teams also figure highly. The other notable high Vas are Atalanta on +6 and (cough cough) Sevilla on +8 who most people predicted relegation woes.

With such overperformance there must be the opposite. Bordeaux, AZ, Feyenord , should all have been challenging for promotion Bordeaux on -16 VA and AZ -15.

A fairly wild season in division 4 with none of the predicted relegated teams going down and only 6 teams with negative PVA.

1 FC Koln , first by name and by stats.

A great season for Koln, +11 VA and +12 PVA promoted and well clear of the rest in the stats.  River Plate 2^nd in the stats , play off team also promoted which shows the strength of the manager in charge.  Schalke in 2^nd will be happy with a strong season all round as will Anderlecht . A big shout out for Sassuolo on a notable +4 VA escaping the chop.

Swansea and Cruziero had the largest negative VA and PVA but perhaps Inter who missed out on promotion will be most disappointed this year.  Not so good for the predicted relegation teams, with 3 of 4 going down.

Some big gains and loses in division 2.

Espanyol head the stats with a stunning +17 VA and +9 VA and are rightly promoted. Sao Paulo who won the league finish 2^nd in the stats with 3^rd place Man Utd in 3^rd place in the stats. Promoted Fenerbahce had a notable +5 VA . Liverpool will count themselves unlucky finishing 4^th but missing out in the play offs.  All it went wrong in Lisbon and Liege -15 and -12 VA respectively and a poor performance for Levante sees the potential champs in 3^rd lowest place in the stats. 2 predicted teams were relegated in Hamburg and Hoffenheim and like D1 a narrow escape for Celta.

A Real return to form.

The Madrid fans will be  more than happy with the 6^th place finish and finishing just top of the stats. A +6 VA the best in the division and PVA of 1.17 places them just above Juventis and Chelsea who did all they could in winning the division.

Notable +5 for Genoa who are emerging as genuine challengers once again and Atletico who managed a good mid table finish.

The lowest VA are Leicester and Man City who were both 8 places below where they should have been, Everton will be disappointed to be relegated with Arsenal also underperforming. Two of the predicted relegation sides escaped (just) with Valencia coming 15^th and Villa 14^th.

The tightest divisional battle by far who will win?

Less than 6 points separate 1^st to last in the stats. Probably will result in the most random results and least accurate predictions but let’s give it a go.

Flamengo have the most depth, best midfield and attack but just lack a quality keeper. Bordeaux in 2^nd pack a punch up front and are solid enough in midfield. Malaga are well balanced except perhaps the keeper and should get auto promotion. Augsburg and Lille  have the best keeper , forward combo and we know this works well in the lower divisions.  Torino look set for a good cup run especially with a good keeper and good depth.  Mid 218 is the cut off to survive D3 so Stuttgart and above should be aiming for promotion this year.

The relegation zone sits at 216.5 most seasons and only 4 teams sit below Dynamo Moscow.  St-Etienne, Montpellier, Sevilla and Fiorentina have their main weakness in defence.  St-Etienne have a fair attack, and the rest a reasonable keeper so with the right tactics all 4 could survive.

Division 4 is much stronger than last season with less difference between first and last.

Who can challenge the top 3 in division 3?

There are 3 teams Inter, Schalke and Anderlecht who could easily win division 2. All 3 have 90 plus attack and Inter are straight 90 across the board. Schalke maybe lack depth but a potent attack must gain them promotion this year. Anderlecht likewise will terrorise lesser teams in D3.

Cruzeiro will be there if any of the top 3 slip up and must be guaranteed a playoff spot as they are 1.5 points above 5^th spot.  Then the gap narrows with Sunderland, Swansea. Zagreb , Palace and Galatasaray fighting out for the remaining spot.  Swansea seem well placed with good depth and a strong attack.  Twente maybe a good cup run bet from a lower division team, with Inter also being able to function in all competitions.

You need 220 to survive D2 so teams as far down as Koln or Sampdoria could look to make the playoffs without fear.

Showing how narrow the gap is between success and failure low 219s means relegation.  As things stand Sassuolo look doomed weak midfield and defence won’t be enough. Ajax lack depth but are much stronger at the back. Zenit are more balanced, while Wolfsburg and Borussia have a relatively strong attack which could be enough to save them

Division 3 in marginally weaker than last season with a similar range between the strongest and weakest sides.

Levante heading back to Division 1?

Straight 90 rated Levante seem set to gain promotion, the only real area of weakness is the depth.  Stoke though in 2^nd have a stronger attack and should be able to challenge them. Sao Paulo have the strongest midfield and are well balanced. Sporting perhaps a keeper short of promotion have a potent outfield and one of the strongest attacks. Liege go for the top and tail approach but do lack some depth. We then have SC Internacional who go out and out depth as the others falter they could well move up the table.

To survive D1 you will need a rating of 224 so Liverpool would also fancy their chance at promotion or play off success.

As for relegation anything under 220 leaves you in real risk of problems. Hamburg know that they will need strong tactics to finish anywhere other than last. Espanyol lack a strong attack and are weak in defence. Promoted Celta are much more potent up top but again do they have enough in defence to survive.  Hoffenheim are also ok at the front but a weak keeper, defensive combination will be troublesome.  AC Milan seem to be more balanced and have good depth,

Division 2 is substantially weaker than last season both on average and the highest / lowest side dropping around 2 points.

Can Chelsea overcome the champions as the stats predict.

A fairly narrow gap splits the top two teams. Hellas have greater depth and a superior defence than Chelsea and match them up top. Chelsea will be using their keeper and midfield to screen the opposing sides.

Dortmund are their closest rivals a well balanced side with a potent attack. Porto are a similar side to  Chelsea with the same kind of balance with Juve another side that is balanced throughout.

Benfica have an obvious weakness in defence but are otherwise a tough side to crack,  Bayern have greater depth than any side in the league and as the season goes on they should make greater progress.  Everton are the wild card side for me, lacking in depth a weaker keeper but on their day could match anyone.

As for relegation 224 is a fair cut off.  This leave 5 sides in obvious danger. Villa with less depth a relatively poor keeper and defence combo might be in more trouble than 17^th suggests.    Valencia have a strong attack but may struggle throughout as will Southampton.  West Brom go for the top and tail technique. Hope your keeper saves you and the attack can punt in a few goals.

Division 1 is slightly stronger than last season but with less difference between the highest and lowest teams.

Usual explanation here:

Teams are rated using a formula which looks at the 4 main positions, GK,DEF,MID and FWD, along with the 18^th ranked player ( the lowest ranked player likely to play ) and the Average.

This produced ETOT the ranking used to work out the final position. This formula is more or less unchanged from around season 4 onwards. There is human input in deciding the most likely team. In addition on occasions the 18^th ranked player ( or less ) in much lower rated, I may choose to ignore that to not skew the stats.

Independiente have a really solid side, it should be a relatively easy ride into D4, they top and tail their team nicely and have good depth. Then perhaps much like the current seasons the rest of the placings will be hard fought by a large number of teams. Boca and Lazio also both top and tail their team with a strong GK, ATT combo. Lazio lack depth which will cost them. Santos have a good midfield but are weaker uptop.

Spartak need a good keeper as do Kyiv,. Kazan look well balanced again.

The cut off for survival in D4 isn’t that high at 216.5 so this rightly suggest all teams down to Athletic club could feature in the playoff and get promoted.

Lower down only the sack race to worry about. Basel, Lyon and Partizan lack any depth.  Newcastle need a good rebuild with only rating above 87.

Division 5 is considerably stronger than last year up half a rating point from the previous season. This is probably due to rebuilds, no contracts and a particularly weak team gaining promotion.

Atalanta deserved leaders in the stats and they win the league.

Finishing 3 places above expected Atatlanta have +4 PVA. They sit just above fellow promoted team Montpellier who have a VA of +9. However the teams with the highest VA are Besitkas and Seville on +10 , both made the playoffs although only Seville survived the first round. Athletic club the opponents of Seville sit on +6 VA and Newcastle get an honourable mention on +6 VA

Poor performances though from 4 of the top  6 predicted sides see that at the wrong end of the stats.  Kazan should have been 3^rd but came 11^th they have the joint lowest VA on -8 and lowest PVA on -0.64. Villareal should have made the playoffs but didn’t they also have -8 VA along with Marseille. Boca made the playoffs but their promotion hopes were blown out by Seville.

3 of the lowest 4 predicted teams finished in the lowest 4