Happy days in Moscow for CSKA

A really strong keeper combined with a forward line scoring at will was a recipe for victory , CSKA go up as champs with +8 VA and + 9PVA.  Two other teams have a higher VA , Augsburg who finished 3^rd in the tight race for the top 3 and Dnipro the evident over achievers in this GW who made the play offs but lost painfully to West Ham.  The Hammers were amongst 4 teams on + 6 VA, St Etienne who just missed the playoffs,  Hoffenheim and Fiorentina who dodged relegation. Anderlecht who finished 2nd in the league also rate a mention as it is always hard to improve much on a predicted 2nd spot, a few goals difference would have seen them 1st in the league and 3rd in the stats..

Everton who sit at the foot of the table could have the last laugh as they made the playoff final despite finishing 4 spots below where they could. Maybe they could argue that Valenica’s fall from grace on -11 VA was a worse performance or their fellow relegation buddies Shakhtar. Fenerbache , Sunderland and PSG had a tough season.

Hamburg dominate a topsy turvy division.

Maybe the best stimulus to promotion is to avoid relegation? Hamburg who were a well balanced side finished with a VA of 16 and PVA of 17 an amazing season.  Zagreb would normally have claimed the top stats spot with +13 VA and 4.67PVA,   Malaga is 3^rd spot in the stats are in the playoffs finishing 6 places above expected.

Big congratulation have to also go to Southampton on + 9 VA and Atletico on +6.

West Brom did an inverse Hamburg should have been first but finished 17^th on – 16 VA , a devasting first half of the season left them nowhere to run.  Genoa narrowly escaped relegation on -12 VA. Leverkusen could still redeem themselves in the play offs.  Internacional ,Swansea and Internacional also had seasons to forget. Again the tactical changes seem to have thrown the stats into the air for the moment at the top end with only sure fire Schalke going down

Winner, winner no chicken dinner?

Brief explanation PVA = Positional value added, this is the value added modified with the finishing position taken into account, for example a team finishing 1^st from 6^th has obviously done a lot better than one finishing 15^th from 20^th. The tie breaker is then the value added, following by finishing position if need.

So top of the stats are 4^th placed team Sao Paulo , predicted to come 15^th they finish 4^th, this gives them a might value added of +11 and a PVA of +3.

This narrowly beats Bayern who also have a PVA of 3 but a value added of 8 finishing in 3^rd.  3^rd in the stats are Barcelona who had a great resurgent season finishing second. They just head Hellas who did all they could finishing 1 place above expected.  Notable big value added goes to Man City and AC Milan

The three worse performers were Dortmund who should have won the league but finished 8^th, Leicester who after many great seasons were also 7 places below expected and Inter who just avoided relegation. Seems the new tactic had more of an effect on the top teams than the lower teams who still sat with one exception more or less where they should have done

Any one of 6 for the title?

Realistically there are a number of teams who could win the title, which could only leave 1 play off spot free for the rest.

Independiente look the strongest, best keeper in the league, decent defence, midfield.  Marseille is just a little weaker but do have more depth for the final push. AZ 1:1 could beat Marseille or Independiente back they have even less depth than their title rivals.  Torino have very strong attack for the league they are in but defensively are weaker. Napoli even more so but will they get enough possession to make use of that 91 rated attack option. Kazan finally goes for the strong first team, lack of depth approach.

Spartak are ahead of the rest of the pack and while not title contenders should sew up the final playoff spot and maybe that could be to their advantage.

218 is the cut off for survival in D4 so Villareal, Partizan, Twente could also be in contention.

Bilbao are favorites for the wooden spoon, although Chievo should give them plenty of competition for last place.

All or nothing the new Division 4 theory.

No team in D4 can be strong all areas, even if you have a strong overall team, probably you will lack depth.

So Sevilla are at least for now the favorites and over last season and the preseason pushed their team from 14^th or 15^th rated to 1^st. The 2^nd strongest attack and midfield , with plenty of depth. Celtic are the most balanced team of the big 3 and have some depth, much more so that Boca who really are a 1 man band with Salah leading the line.  The playoff crew should see Brugge with their good attack, Lille who are a well rounded side and Dynamo getting 3 of the 4 places.  Olympiacos also sit just above the mini pack on 219.5 or more. To survive D3 you need 220 so there are 7 teams who could get promoted and then do a partial rebuild without throwing the team in the bin.

Celta and Stuttgart will be relegated if they fail to bring in talent,  Bremen are also a player or 2 short of safety. Feyenoord are just generally weaker but with plenty of depth could overcome their Dutch rivals. Last season 217 was kind of the cut off for relegation but this year 219 or less could leave you vulnerable.

A very tightly packed division in the middle with 1 pt separating 5^th to 17^th

Everton appear to be the favourites for the title with a clear lead over Anderlecht or have the best attack in the league and should get at least 2^nd.

PSG are also in the big 3 with a sizeable gap above Flamengo who may be relying on their great keeper.

Then we get the pack Sunderland down to Hoffenheim. Sure Sunderland are half a point better than Fenerbache and have a strong attack but each team below them have strengths and weaknesses.  CSKA stand out as a top and tail team which often works at this level, they St Etienne, West Ham also have good depth.

Having said this you will need 221 to survive in the division above which realistically means Sunderland or above could have a good chance if promoted. Less than 219.3 is probably relegation territory. Fiorentina look to be shy of the rest and could well struggle with overachievers Dnipro just having strong enough attack to maybe survive.  Basel have a stronger offense with Roma favoring a more balanced approach.

Will WBA live up to the hype?

WBA have brought in a number of star players

they sit 3 points higher than last season a massive gain that should see them promoted.

Leverkusen in 2^nd should so long as their keeper holds up gain the 2^nd auto spot, with Genoa also with a weak keeper looking to move into 3^rd.  Stoke though may be better placed almost as strong as their rivals but with a better keeper and much more depth, they look up for a good cup run.

There are a good number of top and tail teams such as Internacional, Benfica, Liege, River Plate maybe even Zagreb who will look to avoid the centre of the park and hold off the stronger attacking teams while sneaking in a goal or two.  Of those Benfica look to have most options but do lack depth. You would need 225+ to survive D1so other than WBA any other promoted side is likely to be relegated the following season, which I suppose is kind of how things really are.

At time of writing Man Utd and Schalke have totalled their teams in a rebuild, they will get relegated with sides so poor but presumably will do something about it as the season progresses.  This may only leave 2 other relegation spots.  221 ish last season left teams vulnerable, since no team has a rubbish attack the weakness at the back for Southampton, Hamburg and especially Galatasaray has to be an issue.

Strength or Depth you decide.

Usual preamble:  I take the average rating in the 4 main positions, plus the rating of the 18^th highest player. I ignore multiple keepers and can add some human input if the 18^th rated player is far lower or there are odd combos of teams with 5 FC in the top 11…for example. Etot is then calculated from a tried and trusted formula. In case of a tie average is used.

If they can keep it going all season Dortmund have the first eleven to beat Hellas, but Hellas have huge amounts of depth.  Both teams are hugely higher rated than the rest. Chelsea in 3^rd place in the stats also lack any kind of depth, maybe now with the 5 subs this is even more of a problem, but on their day, they could challenge the top 2, as potentially could Porto, maybe if they adopt a defensive approach against those 2 sides. Barcelona would fancy a top 5 finish this season with one of the strongest attacking lines in the league. Over performers Leicester probably just need a high rated keeper to achieve even more than last season

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Of the promoted sides Villa should thrive in their new surroundings. Milan look set to struggle, as do Spurs. Hertha may well top and tail their way out of trouble. Cologne presumably will find at least an 87 rated keeper otherwise they are as good as relegated.

D1 is slightly weaker 0.1 down from last season.

Turkish delight, certainly a rose tinted season for Besitkas.

No one could deny Besitkas had a great season finishing 1^st when 10^th place was on  the cards at the start of the season. +9 VA is the joint highest in the division along side 3^rd spot Feyenoord who gain auto promotion. Newcastle in 3^rd place in the stats get to the playoffs as do Marseille on +4 VA.  Notable positive VA of +6 for Lyon and Napoli showing the progress made this season.

The lowest ranked teams should have been amongst the highest . Torino should have been promoted on -11 VA along with Kazan who had a season to forget.  AZ got to the playoffs but unsurprisingly were beaten by a resurgent Marseille. 4 of the 5 lowest ranked teams unsurprising finished in 4 of the 5 lowest places, showing there is a lot still to do. Slow cooked meals are one thing but you have to eat the meal eventually.

Roma tops the stats just ahead of champs Zenit.

The top 3 in the league table fair a little different in the stats.  Roma in 3^rd had a great +7 VA, placing them above the champs Zenit. Augsburg who finished 2^nd actually placed 1 place below expected leaving them a neutral score and 13 in the stats.

Playoff bound St Etienne are 3^rd in the stats, literally just above Sevilla who have the highest VA in the division and just missed out.  Credit also to Sassuolo who also had +8 VA and Boca who also avoid relegation on +5 VA.  Bremen also had a great season and made the playoffs on + 4 VA.

Twente finish at the wrong end and -11 VA tells a story , in fact 4 playoff potential teams finished in the lowest 4 places with Dynamo Moscow, Stuttgart and Lille having low VA this season  Atalanta and Santos were relegated as predicted, joining Bordeaux who were predicted to finish 15^th.