Who will win the battle for 3^rd place.

West Brom and Genoa, should both be in Division 1 and would probably win Division 2 at a canter. The only thin holding back Genoa is their keeper and for West Brom maybe there could be even more depth.

Zenit are the clear favourites for 3^rd spot even if the A.I. sees it a bit different but with a good Keeper, Midfield and Attack that should be enough.  Then there is the usually closely matched pack with 8 teams more or less within 1 pt of each other.  Hoffenheim go for the midfield possession, the A.I sees them overhauling Zenit for that reason. My own Sevilla sit 5^th maybe the last gasp of an ageing squad, Sampdoria are the 6^th placed team in my stats but the A.I. sees the lack of depth as being more problematical than I do.  Lille are my 7^th place team a strong attack and midfield, the A.I. is less bothered about the weaker keeper than I am.

If you assume 221.3 is survival in D2, probably no team lower than Lille would survive D2 , however the A.I. sees Sunderland as having a fighting chance with their strong midfield line.

There is much stronger agreement for the relegation teams, 6 of the lower 8 match with only 2 swapping 1 position.  218.1 was more or less the cut off last season, so River Plate much the weakest team look set to go down, Dnipro look to finish 19^th but you pick them for relegation at your peril.  Galatasaray and Newcastle are well shy of the other teams with the possible exception of Partizan.

Who could be the outliers?  St Etienne a lack of depth could drop as low as 14^th.  Spurs may get off to a good start but likely to prove inconsistent during the season could drop to 15^th – 17^th if they have injuries or suspensions.  Newcastle on the other hand have a good amount of depth and balance, they could finish as high as 12^th to 14^th and finally River Plate despite being weaker than anyone else they could reach 17^th as no one position is likely to suffer due to losing a player or 2.

Arsenal to win the league, human and A.I. agree but could they be an outlier?

Not as close at the top as D1, Arsenal has a clear division 1 squad and should get promoted with ease.  Stoke in addition there is solid agreement that the well-balanced team with loads of depths should finish second well ahead of their nearest rivals.  This is where things get tricky. Only 1pt separates the next 6 teams rather like the top of D1, so a small deviation from form could place the 3^rd place team out of the play off spots.  Flamengo if they score enough should finish 3^rd but are they over reliant on their attack when they have a weak keeper.  The A.I. sees them finishing 7^th and maybe lower.  My 4^th place team Internacional are the A.I.s choice for 3^rd, seeing them as more balanced even if depth is slightly less.  Benfica also a balanced team with a good attack should be 5^th or 6^th, before we reach another big difference in Cologne. I see them as coming 6^th, the A.I. says 12^th, even more so though Anderlecht who I see as a playoff team but the A.I. sees struggling to avoid relegation. If you assume 224 is needed to survive D1 all the teams except Arsenal and Stoke have plenty to do if promoted.

Liege is the A.I.s big winner finishing in 4^th rather than 8^th and it also see’s West Ham finishing as high as 5^th.

There is general agreement that current top team Augsburg will struggle finishing last or 2^nd to last with Boca Juniors.  They should be joined by Dinamo Zagreb. I see Espanyol as relegation territory but the A.I. does not agree, with Real Madrid being unfavoured by the robotic calculator. Interestingly only Augsburg are below last seasons cut off point of 219.8 for relegation.

The four biggest uncertainties are around Arsenal if hit by injuries or a poor rotational policy could drop them to 4 – 6^th spot. Flamengo could lack consistency and the A.I. says in a worse circumstance they could drop to 10 – 12^th.  Cologne has a big depth gap so with bad luck could finish 15 – 17^th.  Zagreb has a small depth gap and that could count in their favour with a finish between 13^th – 15^th although that may only be evident after the mid-season.

I say Dortmund should win the league the A.I. says Chelsea (with a big caveat) who is correct.

Usual preamble. I work out the average rating in each of the 4 key positions, the lowest player in the top 18 and the average. This calculates a rating the ETOT, This is used to predicted the final position.

Last year I practiced with some A.I. data which only did marginally worse than I did. During the preseason I trained it with 5 more divisions of data. It came up with the A.I. formula and also was able to spot possible outliers.

It is closer at the top of D1 than ever. Any one of 6 teams have a good chance. Dortmund is just the top team with a great attack, midfield and some depth.  Chelsea who the A.I. predict to win are my 2^nd team, only a lack of depth hampers them. Hellas have greater depth than the Atlantic Ocean but you can’t play all those superstars, they are ranked 3^rd.  Barcelona 4^th ranked form me with that potent attacking threat, Porto a well-balanced team have good depth and a good attack.  They sit above Leicester who have a new gaffer who would be looking to push them to the top of the table.

There is then a sizeable gap to Juventus and the chasing pack.  At the lower end of the table if we say 224 is the cut off for survival, CSKA look doomed to me unless their keeper can save them, Cruzeiro have a good attack but an 88 keeper in D1 will struggle.  Milan and Leverkusen are close to the cut off and maybe their depth will save them.

The A.I. also looked at possible outliers and believes that Chelsea and Barcelona have the biggest potential to underperform placing Chelsea as low as 4-6^th place and Barcelona 9^th – 11^th as outliers. 

It also sees Levante as maybe pushing up to 4- 6^th spot and CSKA maybe 15^th – 17^th due to solid depth and keeper strength.

PSV lead the stats but fall at the first play-off hurdle.

Sometimes life is cruel maybe Santos had the advantage of being able to rest their team but a +13 VA and 3.5 PVA shows how close PSV were to getting out of D5.

Atalanta were 2^nd in the stats but they also failed in the first leg of the play offs to Chievo. Chievo the eventual playoff winners had a great +7 VA and well deserved their play off win. Celta not in any kind of play off but a +10 VA shows the improvements the previous boss put in place. Notable shout out to Monaco with 3^rd place and promotion, Independiente and Napoli who did all they could from a strong position.

Holding up the other 5 divisions are Brugge, should have been 2^nd, came 14^th with -12VA, Rubin had a worse VA on -14 but from a slightly lower initial base which is why their PVA is less bad. Torino, Villareal and Marseille on – 7 VA failed to make the progress they could have done.

So human eye or A.I., A.I. had Celta finishing higher than I did but over egged Spartak, Villareal and Kazan.

I will do a number crunch tomorrow to see who won the battle of the stats.

Crowd goes wild in Basel and Newcastle

Always a strong team Basel exceeded expectations and won the league and stats on +6VA and +7PVA.  Newcastle also auto promoted had a huge +12 VA and 4.33PVA come 2^nd in the stats and 3^rd in the league.  Partizan also had a great +8 VA and are still n with a chance of promotion by the play offs. Lille alos auto promoted in 2^nd. Notable big positive Vas to Feyenoord, Lyon and Besitkas

Valencia had a terrible season, should have been promoted but now sink to division 5 with – 16 VA , will not be a problem to get them back up again. Lokomotiv also had a poor season on -9 VA, Celtic good redeem themselves if they overcome Partizan in the playoffs. Liverpool and especially relegated Olympiacos must be wondering what went wrong.

A.I. or human eye.. The big stand out was A.I thinking Kiev would come 7^th when they came 10^th and Olympiacos 9^th, no obvious reason for that.

Wolfsburg head the stats and the league.

Three great VA scores in D3, firstly Wolfsburg predicted to just miss out on the playoffs they won the league in the end quite easily. In the league 2 points separated the next 6 teams.  Sunderland unlucky to lose in the playoffs but a great +7 VA. West Ham 3^rd in the league and the stats had +4VA.  St Etienne just missed out on the play off spots but a +5 VA shows progress made. Galatasaray had +6 VA and finished in the top half of the table.  Shout out to Dnipro who got +4VA and avoided relegation.

West Brom sit at the foot of the stats table but all is not lost as they face Flamengo tonight.  Swansea have the lowest VA on -7 and Hoffenheim on -5. Only Dnipro of the predicted relegation teams avoided relegation with PSG slipping into the zone from a predicted 15^th so hardly a shock.

A.I. or human eye who did best.  A.I. predicted Wolfsburg less well but Sunderland slightly better in general by own predictions were slightly better.

CSKA head the stats with a +13VA and automatic promotion.

Hard to take maybe to finish 1^st in the league but 6^th in the stats but that just highlights the great performances from over sides. CSKA were predicted to just about beat relegation but gained auto promotion in 3^rd spot. Cruziero were always a play off team but they finished 2^nd in the league and 2^nd in the stats.  Espanyol the near rivals of CSKA had a great +10 VA and head to the play offs Augsburg another playoff team had a great +12 VA with Udinese also in the playoffs 5^th in the stats. Sporting did all they could and were the winners of the league but 6^th in the stats.

In the relegation zone. Genoa in a bit of a rebuild but still -16 VA the big outlier only with Real Madrid who had -10VA and Man Utd on – 8 VA

The majority of relegated sides were correctly picked with only Augsburg escaping.

So A.I. or human eye. Again, no deep analysis here but the stand out spot for the A.I. was Man Utd. I predicted 4^th the A.I. said 10^th and they finished 12^th. The A.I. spotted that their lack of depth would come back to bite them which it did.

Who is better A.I. or the human eye.

Usual preamble: At the start of the season clubs were ranked according to the four main positions, average rating and top 18.

Then using a secret formula they were ranked, this produces a value added and positional value added which takes into account finishing position , after all a club that should have been 5^th finishing 1^st has done a lot better than one that should have been 19^th finishing 15^th and has beaten far harder opposition.

Porto finish top of the stats , predicted to come 5^th they were deserved champs overcoming Leicester who also had +4 VA. A great performance pushed AC Milan to 3^rd in the stats with a great +9VA

Sao Paulo must be pleased with their over performance as should Man City and Hamburg.

Dortmund suffered a spectacular fall from grace on -10 VA in 12^th place when 2^nd was predicted,  Hellas maybe a little annoyed 2^nd last in stats but still came 3r d especially as Arsenal on -7VA got relegated.

Without any deep analysis at this moment who won in D1 human eye or A.I.

Well the A.I. was worse at predicting 2^nd place Leicester and 7^th spot Sao Paulo , it did predict Stoke’s predicament better and Arsenal’s more lowly position. So it seems to be worse at predicting the higher placed teams but worse at predicting the lower place teams.

NAPOLI SET THE PACE AS TITLE RACE HEATS UP

By Paige Turner, Sports Correspondent

As the Division 5 campaign passes the halfway mark, SSC Napoli remain the side to beat — unbeaten in 19 games and sitting proudly atop the table. With 13 wins and six draws, Alessio Tonato’s men have blended attacking flair with defensive steel, boasting a +29 goal difference. Their recent run of six unbeaten matches, including four consecutive wins, underlines their credentials as title favourites.

Hot on their heels, Independiente and AS Monaco are locked level on 40 points, each hoping to capitalise on any slip-up from the leaders. The Argentine giants have shown remarkable consistency, losing just once all season, while Monaco’s occasional defensive lapses have cost them crucial ground despite their attacking prowess.

PSV Eindhoven sit in fourth with 35 points, quietly assembling an impressive record of resilience — only two losses all season. Their mix of youth and experience continues to keep them in the hunt for promotion contention.

In the chasing pack, Atalanta BC and AZ Alkmaar round out the top six. Atalanta’s 46 goals make them the league’s most entertaining side, though defensive frailties persist. AZ, meanwhile, remain tough to beat but lack cutting edge in attack, scoring just 21 times.

Further down the table, Stuttgart and Bordeaux remain competitive, while Lazio and Chievo Verona hover around mid-table, showing flashes of promise but struggling for consistency.

At the wrong end, Club Brugge KV, Spartak Moskva, and Villarreal CF are mired in the relegation fight. Brugge’s alarming run of five straight defeats has plunged them into danger, while Spartak and Villarreal are both desperate for form to avoid the drop.

Among the surprise struggles, Olympique Marseille and Santos FC — both with proud histories — find themselves just above the relegation zone. Their inconsistent results have frustrated fans, with both sides needing a strong second half to climb to safety.

As the season enters its decisive phase, Napoli’s unbeaten streak remains the headline story — but with five teams within ten points of the summit, the race for promotion and survival promises plenty of drama yet.