Saints or sinners?

Southampton do like to be beside the seaside with +13 VA and +7 PVA , they gain auto promotion and top the stats. Liege the champs are 2^nd in the stats with the 2^nd highest PVA just above 3^rd place finishers Galatasaray.

A big VA of +10 for Fiorentina sees them avoid relegation, and +7 for CSKA with +6 for Dnipro are the other big stand out performances this season.

Should have been champs Flamengo are the lowest ranked team in the stats , they didn’t even get to  the playoffs. Sunderland slumped to -8 VA and Celtic who should have made the playoff got relegated on -11 VA joining Celta Vigo D4 next season.  Has to be concerning that such highly ranked teams who are better by a whole point than any team than the division they drop into should get an easy ride next season..

+16 VA ,+8.5 PVA AC Milan top the stats.

Champs and 2^nd place Villa would normally have headed the stats but Milan’s mighty seasonal rise was too much to beat. Noticable big VA of +7 for Spurs who make the playoffs and Zagreb who just lose out.  Cruziero and “relegation fodder “Man Utd also had great seasons and a big VA.  However, where there are swings there are roundabouts and the roundabout has turned for a number of teams.

Liverpool had a dire season and somehow got themselves relegated when they could have been promoted , they rightly get the lowest PVA and VA in the division.  Genoa still in the playoffs mind you but they and Internacional should have been looking at straight promotion. PSG also had a huge negative VA and found themselves relegated. A much bigger swing than D1. 2 of the 4 predicted relegated team were relegated and had PSG and Liverpool not binned their seasons that would have been 3, still ifs buts and maybes butter no crumpets and those who stay up do so on their merits.

The best season ever for Leicester , the stats say yes.

For the unitiated: The final stats position is calculated from positional value added: That is the value added with final position taken into account. After all if the 8^th ranked team finishes 2^nd it is more of an achievement than the 19^th ranked team finishing 7^th.

Leicester top the stats in D1 with +3.5 PVA and +6 VA, they just beat the champs Hellas who did all they could to win the title yet again. Espanyol buoyed by Benzema have the highest VA at +12 and are third overall. Man City are the obvious remaining stand out team on +4 VA. No other great performances stand out.

At the wrong end of the table Dortmund have the lowest PVA , the first ranked team finish 5^th. Juventus on -9 VA are the 2^nd lowest ranked finishing a poor 14^th just below fellow Italians Inter. Two of the predicted relegation teams were relegated, and the other two were the 15^th and 16^th ranked team.

AZ are 2 points above the rest , who will be 2^nd?

AZ should win D5 and even D4, this should be a walk in the park for them. Kiev and Torino look like solid 2^nd and 3^rd place outfit, Kiev pack a punch upfront, while Torino are more defensive minded.

Around 217.5 would be survival in D4 so as usual in D5 a host of teams could seek promotion or wait a while to build their strength.  There is a very narrow range of teams from 5^th place Rubin down to 11^th place Besitkas who will at least for a while have much more bite in their team.

Independiente look the cream of the play off crop with a well balanced team with some depth.

With no relegation there is only the fairly palid sack race to avoid. Athletic club are still being rebuilt , Chievo need to sort out their defence and midfield. Lazio seems to have continued to underperformed despite the youth structure under the previous manager.

Marseille could be a good cup team and may make a late run with all that depth. D5 is slightly weaker than last season.

Will Augsburg double bounce?

Certainly seems that last the champs from D5 are the clear favourites to win D4. A very strong attack, midfield and plenty of depth should be enough. Zenit are half a point behind but should be confident of at least auto promotion, they can claim a well balanced team that perhaps lacks depth. Their nearest rivals are Ajax and Lille who sit a fair chunk above the rest making an interesting battle for 3 & 4^th. Lille have a potent midfield, attack and keeper so should fancy winning the possession game.  Ajax though could do with a better keeper , so I would make Lille the favourites from 3^rd spot.

Around 219.5 should guarantee survival in D3 so any team down to Stuttgart who are the last “playoff” team could survive. They could be the team to spring a surprise into the top 3 with that strong attacking line up.

Down the wrong end of the table while hard to judge from last year 217.5 could be enough to survive.

Boca will fancy their chances , even if they lack a lot of depth, Santos will surely be bringing in a stronger keeper, which would punt them 3 or 4 places higher. Sassuolo won’t fancy double relegation, but can plucky Atalanta 1.7 points adrift survive? Div 4 is around 0.3 weaker than last season

Flamengo lead the way with Everton hoping to make up ground.

If an 88 rated keeper is good enough for D3 then Flamengo who strongest attack and midfield in D3 are clear favourites to win the league. Everton maybe a little weaker but day in day out they also have more depth. Liege would hope that a potent keeper and striker would keep them in the hunt for the title along with Sunderland who are lacking depth but are a well balanced team. Life looks tough for the promoted teams with on Galatasaray in the top 10. Relegated Udinese and Celtic could hope for the play offs.  With D2 being so much weaker 221.2 would give you a chance of survival so 9^th place Celta or above remain realistic prospects.

219 could well be the cut off for relegation this year. This would leave Fiorentina and Dnipro well short of what is needed, more or less similar teams, decent keeper but lacking enough punch in midfield or defence to keep them safe.  Hoffenheim have a stronger team but a weaker keeper and do lack in some depth.  Everton look like a really strong cup side.

Genoa lead the stats but will their keeper let them down?

More than a whole rating point above their rivals and leaders in 2 of the stats Genoa have 1 flaw. They should still get promoted back to D1 but not as champions as the stats suggest. Internacional are in my view a more formidable opposition , they top and tail a strong side and just lead Stoke in the stats. Stoke have a great deal of depth and could be a great cup team but maybe need a stronger keeper for D2 standards.  That can’t be said about Hertha who again are a clear top and tail team , but with good depth besides.

Promoted Malaga should hope at least for the playoffs, however any team hoping to last in D1 would now need a 224 rating, too tough a task for all but the top 4 in D2 at the moment.

Man Utd look like sure fire relegation fodder by D2 standards they are weak in all areas and look set fair to drop.  Joining them most likely will be Sampdoria. An iconic captain and manager will not be enough to save a team 2 pts away from the rest.  Normally I would be look at 222 for the cut off point for relegation, that could leave half the teams in the division in trouble , though Milan and Anderlecht do seem to be adrift from the pack above them. 11^th – 14^th are separated by 0.04 points which is nothing, managerial skill will prevail.

Notably the division is 0.5 pts weaker per team on average.

Usual blurb for new managers.

All data was gathered at the end of the season , new transfer deals might not be included.

I work out the likely average rating in each position and the lowest rated player in the top 18 excluding multiple keepers. If the lowest player is much lower I apply common sense to not skew that data. This is fed into a formula to produce the ETOT and the expected finishing position.

Dortmund and Verona should be battling it out for the top spot with a clear 1 pt lead over Porto. Both have potent attacks but Hellas benefit maybe more from the excellent keeper. Porto with less depth match Verona in most other areas. Chelsea could maybe do with a stronger midfield to win the title but they have in team options to adjust if they wish.  Juventus are swimming in high rated players which is why they just top Bayern the 7^th rated team. Inter are the highest promoted team and should finish mid table.  223 would normally be enough for survival but only 2 teams Espanyol and Schalke fall below that mark.  Schalke maybe ok with that decent keeper. Espanyol on the other hand hope their strong attack can score more than they let in but with a weaker midfield they look favourite to drop.  Cologne lack serious depth and despite and good midfield attack combo they are really weak at the back.

Juventus should win the cups with Sporting also in with a chance.

As a whole the division in 0.25 points higher rated than this year.

Augsburg rise from the ashes. 

+4 VA and a promotion.

Always good to see a return to form and that is what Augsburg have achieved just besting real life 2^nd place Dynamo Moscow on +7 VA.

Atalanta have +13 VA and well deserve a play off spot.  Big shout outs to Feyeboord +10VA , Lyon +8 VA also in the playoff and the +11 of Partizan.

It all went wrong for Lazio , should have won the league but on -15VA a dismal performance.  Fellow potential high flyers AZ an Independiente suffered the same fate

Playoff bound Montpellier lead the stats.

+12 VA the highest in the league, a great achievement for Montpellier.

Promoted Monaco with +4 VA come 2^nd in the stats , just above Boca on +8 VA. Think I was a little harsh on myself in the newsfeed as +9 VA and 4^th in the stats is a good performance for Sevilla, though Lokomotivs 20^th to 10^th could match that on +10VA.

Ajax on -10VA who should have been in the playoffs were last in the stats , above Stuttgart who should have come 2^nd and relegated Rubin.

Again some big variance in D4 , although it is often a bit mad.

Season 23 Division 3 Stats and Facts.

Firstly sorry for doing this again but SM decided to rename a couple of teams so they didn’t copy and paste correctly.

Malaga are the well deserved champions of D3 , a similar VA to Cruziero but one place higher in the league, both with well deserved promotions. Sampdoria sit third in the stats , honouring their leader Mr Ballotell.  Good to see Fiorentina avoiding relegation the other notable VA gain.  Worst performer were Everton but they can still find redemption via the playoffs .

Bremen have the lowest VA of -12 with Palace and Liege being the notable underperformers along with relegated Lille

Swansea promoted last season head the stats this season.

+12VA and a playoff spot sees Swansea beat 2^nd place team Schalke who had +4VA . River Plate had a remarkable season , relegation candidates or so it seemed but they make the playoffs with a remarkable +13VA. Division 2 seems to have been much affected by the comings and goings mid season. Cologne on +9VA and Villa on +8 really pushed on this season.

Stoke were the big underperforming team on -9 VA , just worse than PSG with Fenerbache just above them. Valencia suffer their 2^nd relegation in a row on -7VA.

Barcelona  resurgence sees them top of the stats but is this fair?

Usual blurb: Teams are ranked by positional value added. This is basically the value added +1  divided by the finishing position. That way higher ranked teams can still rank highly in the stats.

Barca have a PVA of +2.33 and the highest VA of +6 in the league , they beat Hellas who still got a +2 VA and dominated the league. Arsenal on +4 VA were 3^rd in the stats with Levante and Espanyol on +5 VA being notable over achievers. Lowest ranked in the stats were the surprising relegated Genoa with -7 VA , Man City and Juventus had -4VA.

Two potential relegation candidates avoided the drop in Leverkusen and Espanyol.

Will relegated and promoted sides dominate as predicted?

Relegated Galatasaray are a strong all round side no real weakness and sufficient depth with a 90 rated attack. Fellow relegated Stuttgart should make a quick return with a slightly stronger attack but weaker midfield. Shakhtar continue their renaissance and perhaps are a keeper away from the title.

Ajax flatter to deceive so often recently they have a great keeper for the division they are in but lack depth. Promoted Basel go all out attack but do lack some strength. Monaco are the division top and tail team of the division who sit below Zenit who are much more balanced.

218.5 is the limit to survive D3 so any team down to Santos could aim for auto promotion. 

Last season was mad but around 217 would be a limit to relegation. This would leave Lokomotiv Moscow who are rebuilding but have no depth and Napoli in desperate trouble. Any team up to Roma will look to improve to pull out of the lowest 4.  Up for the cup ? well Twente and Shakhtar look best equipped to progress a round or 2 or even 3.

Division 4 is substantially tougher on average at +-.6 across the board.

Everton favourites to return to D2

No team is massively better than the rest in this division. Everton have the joint best midfield in the league and are solid throughout with stacks of depth. Sunderland in second, are a bit weaker in midfield and lack a little depth compared to their rivals. Liege are a classic top and tail team, a 91 rated attacker can wreak havoc with no other team having a keeper to match. Flamengo can match Everton in midfield and have a broadly similar team to them.

A rating of 222 is needed to survive D2 which perhaps shows how D2 has moved on recently with D3 dropping half a point across the board. Tottenham, West Ham , and Bremen can all use a 90 rated attacker and any or all can challenge for the playoff but would they simply return to sender ?

Everton look best set for a cup run, with Dnipro and Hoffenheim fancying their chances. 

218.8 was the relegation cut off last season but with the division being weaker we can assume Dnipro should survive. The 3 Italian teams seem to be in the most trouble. Fiorentina promoted but no real strengths, Sassuolo stronger but no depth at all with Sampdoria in a similar position.  Celta seem to be rebuilding but they have a decent attack better than Hoffenheim who rank above them.

Will Inter double bounce?

Interestingly Inter are the only promoted or relegated club to feature in the play off positions or better.  They should be mid table D1 and winning as champions is the minimum the fans expect.

Second in the stats are Sporting good attack and keeper, pehaps defence is the only weakness.  Internacional are stronger up front but a little weaker still in midfield and defence.  Stoke are a more balanced side but do lack the depth of some of their contenders.

Liverpool are the highest rated side with a sub 90 rated keeper, perhaps they could lose something to pick one up .  Schalke will be hoping their strong attack keeps them in the playoff spots.  You probably need 224.5 to survive D1 atm so if any of the other teams get promoted they will head back down again the next season.

Fenerbache, Valencia and Udinese should perform well in the cup.

220.5 or less would be around the cut off for relegation from D2 normally but the gap between the best and worst has narrowed considerably and the standard of the division is up around 0.2 on average.  This leads to River Plate as being the only solid relegation candidates They have a good keeper but an weak defence needs reinforcements. Celtic are well balanced but lack depth , they could falter as the season goes on. Villa in a similar vein could double drop .   WBA go for the top and tail which could keep them safe in what is likely to very tight with 7 team around about the 221 ranking and 6 more at around 222. In reality that means 13 teams with 1 or 2 rating points difference in the starting eleven. Management skill, form and luck will play a huge part in D2.

Many years in the making Lazio top the stats, can the now walk the walk…

The Lazio fans won’t accept any more excuses, they now have a well-balanced team ranked above any other in the league. AZ have the most potent attack in the league and they will combine that with a good midfield to “score one more than you”.

Independiente go for the top and tail approach hoping the lack of possession won’t really matter as they can score and hopefully the opposition can’t.  Bordeaux has an even stronger attack and rated 2 more than any keeper surely, they must top the goals for account this season. Augsburg inherit vast amounts of depth which should see them good for the season. Torino will fancy their chances with good depth and a well-balanced squad. To survive in the division higher you would need 217 ish so as far down as Lyon could get into the playoffs.

At the wrong end just to avoid the sack race is the main ambition. Athletic club and FK are rebuilding. Atalanta should finish a bit higher; Newcastle just needs to buff up the midfield a little.

Usual explanations here:

Will Dortmund overcome Hellas?

I use the average rating in Gk, Def, Mid, Att using the best formation, I include the lowest ranked top 18 player who is likely to play and work out an average. Then using a magic formula developed in the early days of T100 the ETOT the estimated total rating of the team.

Teams are then ranked best to worst.

After a great season the top and tail approach of Hellas seems to work better than the all-round strength of Dortmund. Second ranked Dortmund probably would be after a higher rated keeper, not that 92 is bad to round out their team and also more depth.  Other than defence Porto in 3^rd can match Hellas. Chelsea in 3^rd is another similar team but depth is lacking this season.

The other two main contender above 230 are Bayern and Juventus. Juventus maybe not good enough up top, Bayern lack a great keeper and with a lesser midfield that could be a problem.

That leaves a sizeable gap to the rest the Old Boys of Manchester perhaps have 1 or 2 seasons to tilt at the title. Genoa could be a dark horse with the depth in their squad.

Last season 224 or less meant relegation issues. As it stands AC Milan are as good as relegated, they desperately need a keeper and a 90+ striker.  Hertha’s main weakness is defence, Espanyol are playing a waiting game on some risers. That leaves one final dropper spot.  Levante look most vulnerable with a risk of really low possession and a weak keeper for the league they are in.  Juventus & Hellas could be great cup teams as could Genoa, Real Madrid and Leverkeusen.

Shaktar +11 VA and +12 PVA win the title.

It would be hard to deny that Shaktar have the performance of the year in D5, fellow promoted teams Boca and Rubin sit 2^nd and 3^rd in the stats.

4 more teams have +6 VA, Basel, Villareal, Newcastle and Athletic club showing great managerial talent.  Lower down the league Lazio finish as the lowest rated team -13 VA , with Bordeaux who should have finished 2^nd on -8 VA and Independiente on -5 VA. Spartak and Dynamo Moscow both have -10VA.

In this division none of the top 3 finished in the top 3 and only Lyon of the lowest 5 finished in the lowest 5 showing that a quick turn around in D5 is easily possible.