CSKA head the stats with a +13VA and automatic promotion.

Hard to take maybe to finish 1^st in the league but 6^th in the stats but that just highlights the great performances from over sides. CSKA were predicted to just about beat relegation but gained auto promotion in 3^rd spot. Cruziero were always a play off team but they finished 2^nd in the league and 2^nd in the stats.  Espanyol the near rivals of CSKA had a great +10 VA and head to the play offs Augsburg another playoff team had a great +12 VA with Udinese also in the playoffs 5^th in the stats. Sporting did all they could and were the winners of the league but 6^th in the stats.

In the relegation zone. Genoa in a bit of a rebuild but still -16 VA the big outlier only with Real Madrid who had -10VA and Man Utd on – 8 VA

The majority of relegated sides were correctly picked with only Augsburg escaping.

So A.I. or human eye. Again, no deep analysis here but the stand out spot for the A.I. was Man Utd. I predicted 4^th the A.I. said 10^th and they finished 12^th. The A.I. spotted that their lack of depth would come back to bite them which it did.

Who is better A.I. or the human eye.

Usual preamble: At the start of the season clubs were ranked according to the four main positions, average rating and top 18.

Then using a secret formula they were ranked, this produces a value added and positional value added which takes into account finishing position , after all a club that should have been 5^th finishing 1^st has done a lot better than one that should have been 19^th finishing 15^th and has beaten far harder opposition.

Porto finish top of the stats , predicted to come 5^th they were deserved champs overcoming Leicester who also had +4 VA. A great performance pushed AC Milan to 3^rd in the stats with a great +9VA

Sao Paulo must be pleased with their over performance as should Man City and Hamburg.

Dortmund suffered a spectacular fall from grace on -10 VA in 12^th place when 2^nd was predicted,  Hellas maybe a little annoyed 2^nd last in stats but still came 3r d especially as Arsenal on -7VA got relegated.

Without any deep analysis at this moment who won in D1 human eye or A.I.

Well the A.I. was worse at predicting 2^nd place Leicester and 7^th spot Sao Paulo , it did predict Stoke’s predicament better and Arsenal’s more lowly position. So it seems to be worse at predicting the higher placed teams but worse at predicting the lower place teams.

NAPOLI SET THE PACE AS TITLE RACE HEATS UP

By Paige Turner, Sports Correspondent

As the Division 5 campaign passes the halfway mark, SSC Napoli remain the side to beat — unbeaten in 19 games and sitting proudly atop the table. With 13 wins and six draws, Alessio Tonato’s men have blended attacking flair with defensive steel, boasting a +29 goal difference. Their recent run of six unbeaten matches, including four consecutive wins, underlines their credentials as title favourites.

Hot on their heels, Independiente and AS Monaco are locked level on 40 points, each hoping to capitalise on any slip-up from the leaders. The Argentine giants have shown remarkable consistency, losing just once all season, while Monaco’s occasional defensive lapses have cost them crucial ground despite their attacking prowess.

PSV Eindhoven sit in fourth with 35 points, quietly assembling an impressive record of resilience — only two losses all season. Their mix of youth and experience continues to keep them in the hunt for promotion contention.

In the chasing pack, Atalanta BC and AZ Alkmaar round out the top six. Atalanta’s 46 goals make them the league’s most entertaining side, though defensive frailties persist. AZ, meanwhile, remain tough to beat but lack cutting edge in attack, scoring just 21 times.

Further down the table, Stuttgart and Bordeaux remain competitive, while Lazio and Chievo Verona hover around mid-table, showing flashes of promise but struggling for consistency.

At the wrong end, Club Brugge KV, Spartak Moskva, and Villarreal CF are mired in the relegation fight. Brugge’s alarming run of five straight defeats has plunged them into danger, while Spartak and Villarreal are both desperate for form to avoid the drop.

Among the surprise struggles, Olympique Marseille and Santos FC — both with proud histories — find themselves just above the relegation zone. Their inconsistent results have frustrated fans, with both sides needing a strong second half to climb to safety.

As the season enters its decisive phase, Napoli’s unbeaten streak remains the headline story — but with five teams within ten points of the summit, the race for promotion and survival promises plenty of drama yet.

Can West Brom beat the Mo Salah led Boca team, the stats say yes.

Boca with Salah were nearly untouchable in D4 but D3 is a different matter. West Brom should win the division the strongest team in 3 of the categories and 2^nd best in attack.  Boca’s season in 2^nd spot rests in 1 man, a few injuries and they would be a mid table outfit at best.  Flamengo in 3^rd are a solid outfit 90 keeper and 90 attack will be hard for most D3 teams to cope with.  Zenit in 4^th in the stats have a strong midfield but are they too weak at the back to cope with some of the mighty attackers? Seville in 5^th are not a Boca clone with much more depth than most teams.  Swansea in 6^th have such a strong attack and midfield combo but recently defensive teams such as West Ham have been favoured.  Can Sampdoria match the expected 9^th spot with their strong attack but weak keeper?

As you would only need 220.5 to survive D2 promotion is a realistic prospect down to at least Sunderland in 11^th spot.

Relegation , Schalke look likely to suffer yet another drop unless something is done, while last season was a bit mad a general cut off of 219 from relegation could be applied.  This leave the 2 Turkish teams who are near identical in stats battling Dnipro who so often over perform and Fiorentina .

As for the A.I. it sees Sevilla gaining a 2^nd promotion instead of Flamengo, Sunderland are expect to do somewhat better but the relegation teams still sit firm.

Sporting the clear favourites.

A team that should be mid table in D1 should romp to the title with room to spare. They can only realistically be beaten in the keeper position but should not have a problem. Then things get much closer. Genoa just in 2^nd spot maybe a little weaker in defence but still a tough all round team. Leverkusen are a more defensive outfit but maybe lack a little depth.

Man Utd are in 4^th spot but will the keeper be a real weakness.  Real Madrid will run the top teams close with that potent attack  but as is true of Cruziero perhaps a little weak lower down the order.

Liege are a classic top and tail team but does that still work in division 2 , time will tell. Interestingly on Sporting have what it takes to survive in D1 all the other prospects face instant relegation.

At the wrong end of the table anything less than 221 leaves you in danger, River Plate it is hard to see how they can survive with the weakest attack and defence in the league.  Spurs can hope that a good defensive showing keeps them up , where as Augsburg must hope to knock a few in as they will probably ship a few at the back.  CSKA will look to depth to avoid the drop hoping Cologne , Espanyol or Atletico will get a few injuries

The A.I. does see things a little different , it doesn’t rate Man Utd as highly and sees them finishing around 10^th maybe due to the keeper and lack of depth.  The A.I. predict Real Madrid to come 2^nd and Liege to come 3^rd if this comes to pass it would be interesting to see.

Division 2 is a tougher division than last season around 0.5 points across the board.

All looks set for a Hellas repeat?

First the preamble for any new managers

I look at the average ratings for GK, DEF,MID,ATT, the top 18 player

Then using a tried and ( mostly ) trusted formula work out the ETOT the cumulative score.

Occasionally I have to add a little human common sense if formations look odd or a team has loads of goalkeepers etc..

This year I have also involved A.I. in developing a new prototype formula to include balance and depth , the finishing position according to me is Pre, according to A.I. is A.I, all my comments below are on my predictions we will compare with A.I. at the end.

There is little doubt that strength and depth hard to beat and Hellas have that, they have the best defence in the league and one of the best attacks, crucially any injury is easily covered.  Dortmund sit a little way behind them but well ahead of the rest , they have a better attack but do lack in depth.  Chelsea in 3^rd have less depth but a great keeper and midfield should keep out the opposition while creating chances.

Barcelona have the joint strongest attack in the league ,maybe their defence is a little weak for a title run. Porto are a well balanced team , no real weakness which places them just above Leicester.  Juventus are the only remaining strong challenge at least 1 whole point above their rivals.

As for relegation , around 223.5 would have been a cut off last season.  This place 3 teams in the direct line of fire. Zagreb are a point adrift of the rest and they will struggle for possession and have a weak defence. Malaga another 1.5 points from their rivals are more balanced but an 89 keeper won’t cut it in D1.  Hamburg sit just under the cut off but are by  no means relegation fodder.  Milan with a weaker keeper and defence could struggle more.

For the first time in a while D1 is slightly weaker than last season by 0.07 points.

So what does the A.I. do different. It flips 3 and 4^th Chelsea and Barca around., similarly with Leicester and Juve.  Levante get bumped down 3 spots  . The 3 lowest teams remain the same but the AI sees Stoke being relegated rather than Milan.

Due to the madness of the tactical changes, I decide to engage the help of Cyberdyne systems to help crunch the number to see if they could do any better than me.

First the standard write-up A.I. free.

FK Partizan are the clear winner both of the league and the stats. +8 VA and finishing first leaves them above 2^nd placed Lyon who have the 2^nd highest VA in the league. 3^rd place in the league and stats ( thanks for making my job easy here ) are Monchengladbach who have an impressive +10 VA as do 4^th place Lazio. Biggest winners showing the long term game is paying off are Bilbao who have +14 VA. Newcastle and PSV also performed above predicted.

Independiente finish in 11^th in real life but last in the stats, just slightly better than true last placed team AZ  on -17 VA, who do just better than Napoli on -14 VA.

Now for the A.I. well I got it to crunch the number based on past data , it suggested adding a column for balance and more weighted depth so I have done that and adjusted the weightings as it suggested.

First table is the normal one all my own work.

So then the human and A.I. compared

Does the A.I. do much better, well , hard to say , but it doesn’t do any worse.  So what will happen is this.

Next season I will also use the A.I. formula and produce an alternate finishing position. At the end of the season if machine wins , I will create a new formula for each division based on A.I.  if not I will keep it the same. All seems fair, let the battle commence.

The full Monty in the South of France.

Twelve places above the predicted 14 spots places 2^nd place in the league in 1^st place in the stats. They sit above play off team Feyenoord who have +13 VA who exited early from the play-offs. Boca who must fancy their chance in D3 next season with mighty Mo are in 3^rd spot.  Playoff teams Ajax on +11 , their rivals Wolfsburg on +5 and Lokomotive on +7 had great seasons as did Bremen who escaped relegation. Special mention to Sevilla who finished 3^rd in the league but 17^th in the stats perhaps showing there in no bias in the stats!

Some really poor showings led to Monaco and Brugge on -12 and -13 VA being relegated and Celtic who were predicted much better coming 13^th and last in the stats. Division 4 was slightly closer to norms with 2 of the predicted relegation teams going down and 2 of the 3 auto promotion teams going up.