CSKA head the stats with a +13VA and automatic promotion.

Hard to take maybe to finish 1^st in the league but 6^th in the stats but that just highlights the great performances from over sides. CSKA were predicted to just about beat relegation but gained auto promotion in 3^rd spot. Cruziero were always a play off team but they finished 2^nd in the league and 2^nd in the stats.  Espanyol the near rivals of CSKA had a great +10 VA and head to the play offs Augsburg another playoff team had a great +12 VA with Udinese also in the playoffs 5^th in the stats. Sporting did all they could and were the winners of the league but 6^th in the stats.

In the relegation zone. Genoa in a bit of a rebuild but still -16 VA the big outlier only with Real Madrid who had -10VA and Man Utd on – 8 VA

The majority of relegated sides were correctly picked with only Augsburg escaping.

So A.I. or human eye. Again, no deep analysis here but the stand out spot for the A.I. was Man Utd. I predicted 4^th the A.I. said 10^th and they finished 12^th. The A.I. spotted that their lack of depth would come back to bite them which it did.

Who is better A.I. or the human eye.

Usual preamble: At the start of the season clubs were ranked according to the four main positions, average rating and top 18.

Then using a secret formula they were ranked, this produces a value added and positional value added which takes into account finishing position , after all a club that should have been 5^th finishing 1^st has done a lot better than one that should have been 19^th finishing 15^th and has beaten far harder opposition.

Porto finish top of the stats , predicted to come 5^th they were deserved champs overcoming Leicester who also had +4 VA. A great performance pushed AC Milan to 3^rd in the stats with a great +9VA

Sao Paulo must be pleased with their over performance as should Man City and Hamburg.

Dortmund suffered a spectacular fall from grace on -10 VA in 12^th place when 2^nd was predicted,  Hellas maybe a little annoyed 2^nd last in stats but still came 3r d especially as Arsenal on -7VA got relegated.

Without any deep analysis at this moment who won in D1 human eye or A.I.

Well the A.I. was worse at predicting 2^nd place Leicester and 7^th spot Sao Paulo , it did predict Stoke’s predicament better and Arsenal’s more lowly position. So it seems to be worse at predicting the higher placed teams but worse at predicting the lower place teams.

NAPOLI SET THE PACE AS TITLE RACE HEATS UP

By Paige Turner, Sports Correspondent

As the Division 5 campaign passes the halfway mark, SSC Napoli remain the side to beat — unbeaten in 19 games and sitting proudly atop the table. With 13 wins and six draws, Alessio Tonato’s men have blended attacking flair with defensive steel, boasting a +29 goal difference. Their recent run of six unbeaten matches, including four consecutive wins, underlines their credentials as title favourites.

Hot on their heels, Independiente and AS Monaco are locked level on 40 points, each hoping to capitalise on any slip-up from the leaders. The Argentine giants have shown remarkable consistency, losing just once all season, while Monaco’s occasional defensive lapses have cost them crucial ground despite their attacking prowess.

PSV Eindhoven sit in fourth with 35 points, quietly assembling an impressive record of resilience — only two losses all season. Their mix of youth and experience continues to keep them in the hunt for promotion contention.

In the chasing pack, Atalanta BC and AZ Alkmaar round out the top six. Atalanta’s 46 goals make them the league’s most entertaining side, though defensive frailties persist. AZ, meanwhile, remain tough to beat but lack cutting edge in attack, scoring just 21 times.

Further down the table, Stuttgart and Bordeaux remain competitive, while Lazio and Chievo Verona hover around mid-table, showing flashes of promise but struggling for consistency.

At the wrong end, Club Brugge KV, Spartak Moskva, and Villarreal CF are mired in the relegation fight. Brugge’s alarming run of five straight defeats has plunged them into danger, while Spartak and Villarreal are both desperate for form to avoid the drop.

Among the surprise struggles, Olympique Marseille and Santos FC — both with proud histories — find themselves just above the relegation zone. Their inconsistent results have frustrated fans, with both sides needing a strong second half to climb to safety.

As the season enters its decisive phase, Napoli’s unbeaten streak remains the headline story — but with five teams within ten points of the summit, the race for promotion and survival promises plenty of drama yet.

Can West Brom beat the Mo Salah led Boca team, the stats say yes.

Boca with Salah were nearly untouchable in D4 but D3 is a different matter. West Brom should win the division the strongest team in 3 of the categories and 2^nd best in attack.  Boca’s season in 2^nd spot rests in 1 man, a few injuries and they would be a mid table outfit at best.  Flamengo in 3^rd are a solid outfit 90 keeper and 90 attack will be hard for most D3 teams to cope with.  Zenit in 4^th in the stats have a strong midfield but are they too weak at the back to cope with some of the mighty attackers? Seville in 5^th are not a Boca clone with much more depth than most teams.  Swansea in 6^th have such a strong attack and midfield combo but recently defensive teams such as West Ham have been favoured.  Can Sampdoria match the expected 9^th spot with their strong attack but weak keeper?

As you would only need 220.5 to survive D2 promotion is a realistic prospect down to at least Sunderland in 11^th spot.

Relegation , Schalke look likely to suffer yet another drop unless something is done, while last season was a bit mad a general cut off of 219 from relegation could be applied.  This leave the 2 Turkish teams who are near identical in stats battling Dnipro who so often over perform and Fiorentina .

As for the A.I. it sees Sevilla gaining a 2^nd promotion instead of Flamengo, Sunderland are expect to do somewhat better but the relegation teams still sit firm.

Sporting the clear favourites.

A team that should be mid table in D1 should romp to the title with room to spare. They can only realistically be beaten in the keeper position but should not have a problem. Then things get much closer. Genoa just in 2^nd spot maybe a little weaker in defence but still a tough all round team. Leverkusen are a more defensive outfit but maybe lack a little depth.

Man Utd are in 4^th spot but will the keeper be a real weakness.  Real Madrid will run the top teams close with that potent attack  but as is true of Cruziero perhaps a little weak lower down the order.

Liege are a classic top and tail team but does that still work in division 2 , time will tell. Interestingly on Sporting have what it takes to survive in D1 all the other prospects face instant relegation.

At the wrong end of the table anything less than 221 leaves you in danger, River Plate it is hard to see how they can survive with the weakest attack and defence in the league.  Spurs can hope that a good defensive showing keeps them up , where as Augsburg must hope to knock a few in as they will probably ship a few at the back.  CSKA will look to depth to avoid the drop hoping Cologne , Espanyol or Atletico will get a few injuries

The A.I. does see things a little different , it doesn’t rate Man Utd as highly and sees them finishing around 10^th maybe due to the keeper and lack of depth.  The A.I. predict Real Madrid to come 2^nd and Liege to come 3^rd if this comes to pass it would be interesting to see.

Division 2 is a tougher division than last season around 0.5 points across the board.

All looks set for a Hellas repeat?

First the preamble for any new managers

I look at the average ratings for GK, DEF,MID,ATT, the top 18 player

Then using a tried and ( mostly ) trusted formula work out the ETOT the cumulative score.

Occasionally I have to add a little human common sense if formations look odd or a team has loads of goalkeepers etc..

This year I have also involved A.I. in developing a new prototype formula to include balance and depth , the finishing position according to me is Pre, according to A.I. is A.I, all my comments below are on my predictions we will compare with A.I. at the end.

There is little doubt that strength and depth hard to beat and Hellas have that, they have the best defence in the league and one of the best attacks, crucially any injury is easily covered.  Dortmund sit a little way behind them but well ahead of the rest , they have a better attack but do lack in depth.  Chelsea in 3^rd have less depth but a great keeper and midfield should keep out the opposition while creating chances.

Barcelona have the joint strongest attack in the league ,maybe their defence is a little weak for a title run. Porto are a well balanced team , no real weakness which places them just above Leicester.  Juventus are the only remaining strong challenge at least 1 whole point above their rivals.

As for relegation , around 223.5 would have been a cut off last season.  This place 3 teams in the direct line of fire. Zagreb are a point adrift of the rest and they will struggle for possession and have a weak defence. Malaga another 1.5 points from their rivals are more balanced but an 89 keeper won’t cut it in D1.  Hamburg sit just under the cut off but are by  no means relegation fodder.  Milan with a weaker keeper and defence could struggle more.

For the first time in a while D1 is slightly weaker than last season by 0.07 points.

So what does the A.I. do different. It flips 3 and 4^th Chelsea and Barca around., similarly with Leicester and Juve.  Levante get bumped down 3 spots  . The 3 lowest teams remain the same but the AI sees Stoke being relegated rather than Milan.

Due to the madness of the tactical changes, I decide to engage the help of Cyberdyne systems to help crunch the number to see if they could do any better than me.

First the standard write-up A.I. free.

FK Partizan are the clear winner both of the league and the stats. +8 VA and finishing first leaves them above 2^nd placed Lyon who have the 2^nd highest VA in the league. 3^rd place in the league and stats ( thanks for making my job easy here ) are Monchengladbach who have an impressive +10 VA as do 4^th place Lazio. Biggest winners showing the long term game is paying off are Bilbao who have +14 VA. Newcastle and PSV also performed above predicted.

Independiente finish in 11^th in real life but last in the stats, just slightly better than true last placed team AZ  on -17 VA, who do just better than Napoli on -14 VA.

Now for the A.I. well I got it to crunch the number based on past data , it suggested adding a column for balance and more weighted depth so I have done that and adjusted the weightings as it suggested.

First table is the normal one all my own work.

So then the human and A.I. compared

Does the A.I. do much better, well , hard to say , but it doesn’t do any worse.  So what will happen is this.

Next season I will also use the A.I. formula and produce an alternate finishing position. At the end of the season if machine wins , I will create a new formula for each division based on A.I.  if not I will keep it the same. All seems fair, let the battle commence.

The full Monty in the South of France.

Twelve places above the predicted 14 spots places 2^nd place in the league in 1^st place in the stats. They sit above play off team Feyenoord who have +13 VA who exited early from the play-offs. Boca who must fancy their chance in D3 next season with mighty Mo are in 3^rd spot.  Playoff teams Ajax on +11 , their rivals Wolfsburg on +5 and Lokomotive on +7 had great seasons as did Bremen who escaped relegation. Special mention to Sevilla who finished 3^rd in the league but 17^th in the stats perhaps showing there in no bias in the stats!

Some really poor showings led to Monaco and Brugge on -12 and -13 VA being relegated and Celtic who were predicted much better coming 13^th and last in the stats. Division 4 was slightly closer to norms with 2 of the predicted relegation teams going down and 2 of the 3 auto promotion teams going up.

Happy days in Moscow for CSKA

A really strong keeper combined with a forward line scoring at will was a recipe for victory , CSKA go up as champs with +8 VA and + 9PVA.  Two other teams have a higher VA , Augsburg who finished 3^rd in the tight race for the top 3 and Dnipro the evident over achievers in this GW who made the play offs but lost painfully to West Ham.  The Hammers were amongst 4 teams on + 6 VA, St Etienne who just missed the playoffs,  Hoffenheim and Fiorentina who dodged relegation. Anderlecht who finished 2nd in the league also rate a mention as it is always hard to improve much on a predicted 2nd spot, a few goals difference would have seen them 1st in the league and 3rd in the stats..

Everton who sit at the foot of the table could have the last laugh as they made the playoff final despite finishing 4 spots below where they could. Maybe they could argue that Valenica’s fall from grace on -11 VA was a worse performance or their fellow relegation buddies Shakhtar. Fenerbache , Sunderland and PSG had a tough season.

Hamburg dominate a topsy turvy division.

Maybe the best stimulus to promotion is to avoid relegation? Hamburg who were a well balanced side finished with a VA of 16 and PVA of 17 an amazing season.  Zagreb would normally have claimed the top stats spot with +13 VA and 4.67PVA,   Malaga is 3^rd spot in the stats are in the playoffs finishing 6 places above expected.

Big congratulation have to also go to Southampton on + 9 VA and Atletico on +6.

West Brom did an inverse Hamburg should have been first but finished 17^th on – 16 VA , a devasting first half of the season left them nowhere to run.  Genoa narrowly escaped relegation on -12 VA. Leverkusen could still redeem themselves in the play offs.  Internacional ,Swansea and Internacional also had seasons to forget. Again the tactical changes seem to have thrown the stats into the air for the moment at the top end with only sure fire Schalke going down

Winner, winner no chicken dinner?

Brief explanation PVA = Positional value added, this is the value added modified with the finishing position taken into account, for example a team finishing 1^st from 6^th has obviously done a lot better than one finishing 15^th from 20^th. The tie breaker is then the value added, following by finishing position if need.

So top of the stats are 4^th placed team Sao Paulo , predicted to come 15^th they finish 4^th, this gives them a might value added of +11 and a PVA of +3.

This narrowly beats Bayern who also have a PVA of 3 but a value added of 8 finishing in 3^rd.  3^rd in the stats are Barcelona who had a great resurgent season finishing second. They just head Hellas who did all they could finishing 1 place above expected.  Notable big value added goes to Man City and AC Milan

The three worse performers were Dortmund who should have won the league but finished 8^th, Leicester who after many great seasons were also 7 places below expected and Inter who just avoided relegation. Seems the new tactic had more of an effect on the top teams than the lower teams who still sat with one exception more or less where they should have done

Any one of 6 for the title?

Realistically there are a number of teams who could win the title, which could only leave 1 play off spot free for the rest.

Independiente look the strongest, best keeper in the league, decent defence, midfield.  Marseille is just a little weaker but do have more depth for the final push. AZ 1:1 could beat Marseille or Independiente back they have even less depth than their title rivals.  Torino have very strong attack for the league they are in but defensively are weaker. Napoli even more so but will they get enough possession to make use of that 91 rated attack option. Kazan finally goes for the strong first team, lack of depth approach.

Spartak are ahead of the rest of the pack and while not title contenders should sew up the final playoff spot and maybe that could be to their advantage.

218 is the cut off for survival in D4 so Villareal, Partizan, Twente could also be in contention.

Bilbao are favorites for the wooden spoon, although Chievo should give them plenty of competition for last place.

All or nothing the new Division 4 theory.

No team in D4 can be strong all areas, even if you have a strong overall team, probably you will lack depth.

So Sevilla are at least for now the favorites and over last season and the preseason pushed their team from 14^th or 15^th rated to 1^st. The 2^nd strongest attack and midfield , with plenty of depth. Celtic are the most balanced team of the big 3 and have some depth, much more so that Boca who really are a 1 man band with Salah leading the line.  The playoff crew should see Brugge with their good attack, Lille who are a well rounded side and Dynamo getting 3 of the 4 places.  Olympiacos also sit just above the mini pack on 219.5 or more. To survive D3 you need 220 so there are 7 teams who could get promoted and then do a partial rebuild without throwing the team in the bin.

Celta and Stuttgart will be relegated if they fail to bring in talent,  Bremen are also a player or 2 short of safety. Feyenoord are just generally weaker but with plenty of depth could overcome their Dutch rivals. Last season 217 was kind of the cut off for relegation but this year 219 or less could leave you vulnerable.

A very tightly packed division in the middle with 1 pt separating 5^th to 17^th

Everton appear to be the favourites for the title with a clear lead over Anderlecht or have the best attack in the league and should get at least 2^nd.

PSG are also in the big 3 with a sizeable gap above Flamengo who may be relying on their great keeper.

Then we get the pack Sunderland down to Hoffenheim. Sure Sunderland are half a point better than Fenerbache and have a strong attack but each team below them have strengths and weaknesses.  CSKA stand out as a top and tail team which often works at this level, they St Etienne, West Ham also have good depth.

Having said this you will need 221 to survive in the division above which realistically means Sunderland or above could have a good chance if promoted. Less than 219.3 is probably relegation territory. Fiorentina look to be shy of the rest and could well struggle with overachievers Dnipro just having strong enough attack to maybe survive.  Basel have a stronger offense with Roma favoring a more balanced approach.

Will WBA live up to the hype?

WBA have brought in a number of star players

they sit 3 points higher than last season a massive gain that should see them promoted.

Leverkusen in 2^nd should so long as their keeper holds up gain the 2^nd auto spot, with Genoa also with a weak keeper looking to move into 3^rd.  Stoke though may be better placed almost as strong as their rivals but with a better keeper and much more depth, they look up for a good cup run.

There are a good number of top and tail teams such as Internacional, Benfica, Liege, River Plate maybe even Zagreb who will look to avoid the centre of the park and hold off the stronger attacking teams while sneaking in a goal or two.  Of those Benfica look to have most options but do lack depth. You would need 225+ to survive D1so other than WBA any other promoted side is likely to be relegated the following season, which I suppose is kind of how things really are.

At time of writing Man Utd and Schalke have totalled their teams in a rebuild, they will get relegated with sides so poor but presumably will do something about it as the season progresses.  This may only leave 2 other relegation spots.  221 ish last season left teams vulnerable, since no team has a rubbish attack the weakness at the back for Southampton, Hamburg and especially Galatasaray has to be an issue.

Strength or Depth you decide.

Usual preamble:  I take the average rating in the 4 main positions, plus the rating of the 18^th highest player. I ignore multiple keepers and can add some human input if the 18^th rated player is far lower or there are odd combos of teams with 5 FC in the top 11…for example. Etot is then calculated from a tried and trusted formula. In case of a tie average is used.

If they can keep it going all season Dortmund have the first eleven to beat Hellas, but Hellas have huge amounts of depth.  Both teams are hugely higher rated than the rest. Chelsea in 3^rd place in the stats also lack any kind of depth, maybe now with the 5 subs this is even more of a problem, but on their day, they could challenge the top 2, as potentially could Porto, maybe if they adopt a defensive approach against those 2 sides. Barcelona would fancy a top 5 finish this season with one of the strongest attacking lines in the league. Over performers Leicester probably just need a high rated keeper to achieve even more than last season

.

Of the promoted sides Villa should thrive in their new surroundings. Milan look set to struggle, as do Spurs. Hertha may well top and tail their way out of trouble. Cologne presumably will find at least an 87 rated keeper otherwise they are as good as relegated.

D1 is slightly weaker 0.1 down from last season.

Turkish delight, certainly a rose tinted season for Besitkas.

No one could deny Besitkas had a great season finishing 1^st when 10^th place was on  the cards at the start of the season. +9 VA is the joint highest in the division along side 3^rd spot Feyenoord who gain auto promotion. Newcastle in 3^rd place in the stats get to the playoffs as do Marseille on +4 VA.  Notable positive VA of +6 for Lyon and Napoli showing the progress made this season.

The lowest ranked teams should have been amongst the highest . Torino should have been promoted on -11 VA along with Kazan who had a season to forget.  AZ got to the playoffs but unsurprisingly were beaten by a resurgent Marseille. 4 of the 5 lowest ranked teams unsurprising finished in 4 of the 5 lowest places, showing there is a lot still to do. Slow cooked meals are one thing but you have to eat the meal eventually.

Roma tops the stats just ahead of champs Zenit.

The top 3 in the league table fair a little different in the stats.  Roma in 3^rd had a great +7 VA, placing them above the champs Zenit. Augsburg who finished 2^nd actually placed 1 place below expected leaving them a neutral score and 13 in the stats.

Playoff bound St Etienne are 3^rd in the stats, literally just above Sevilla who have the highest VA in the division and just missed out.  Credit also to Sassuolo who also had +8 VA and Boca who also avoid relegation on +5 VA.  Bremen also had a great season and made the playoffs on + 4 VA.

Twente finish at the wrong end and -11 VA tells a story , in fact 4 playoff potential teams finished in the lowest 4 places with Dynamo Moscow, Stuttgart and Lille having low VA this season  Atalanta and Santos were relegated as predicted, joining Bordeaux who were predicted to finish 15^th.