Chelsea the highest ranked team just above Porto, is balance the key to all things?

How it all work. I calculate the average rating in the four main positions, the top 18 and the average. A formula calculates the ETOT which is the ranking each team gets based on each position. If for any reason the lowest ranked top 18 player is much lower than anyone else I adjust that using common sense so as not to skew the results.

The only thing Chelsea lack is depth. It would be possible for 2 or 3 injuries to break them down sufficiently for others to challenge.  Porto, Barca and Hellas have a strong attacking line but too often the rip each other apart leaving Chelsea unscathed.  Hellas have great depth but an 89 keeper doesn’t cut it in D1.

Juventus have the top and tail approach of great keeper and attack, a few players of the highest quality in midfield and they could challenge once more.  Leicester joins them in the strongest lead pack again a well balanced

What about relegation prospects?  Last year under 224 meant a 75% chance of relegation. So there are 4 clear favourites. Espanyol not really built for D1 will struggle at all levels.  Internacional do have a strong keeper and more depth. CSKA did so well last season to stay up but this season it will be even tougher. Man City will be 100% reliant on their tough keeper. Hamburg are the only other team close to 224 but they are now much more balanced and have great depth, this could leave Cologne vulnerable with a few injuries.

The A.I. has also made its own ranking and it does closely agree with me. Berlin and Arsenal are predicted to swap places but all the others are + or – 1 at most.

Bilboko Athletic Kluba estatistikaren txapelduna.

In honour of my wife and kids basque heritage, indeed Athletic club were the champions of the stats. +11 VA and +6 PVA leading to automatic promotion as part of a long term project.  They are narrowly ahead of Kazan and PSV on +7 and +8 VA , the two playoff finalists (sounds familiar over achieving teams triumphing in the playoff while underachieving higher rank teams fail ).

Valencia were the hot favourites all year and can relax into D4 life knowing they are more than likely to go up again.  Big positive scores go to Shaktar on +5 and Bordeaux on +6 VA showing that managerial skill plays an important part still.

No relegation of course so who stats wise did the worse.  Brugge hold that record with -10 VA, they should have been playoff bound but narrowly avoided the sack race. Celta did little better with -7VA, Olympiacos and Spartak also did worse than expected.

3 of the lowest 4 landed where they should with 5th worse team Sassuolo joining them.

A middle level of variaion in D5 , I out did the A.I. again by around 4 pts total.  Once again the A.I. slipped up more predicting under performing teams.

Ajax win the league and the stats.

+5VA pushed the Ajax team from playoff team to champions. A great performance from Moenchengladbach saw them come in 3^rd with a +8VA, in the stats they just lead the other promoted team Liverpool who on +2 VA came 2^nd in the league. Highest VA goes to Lyon on +10 , they just missed out on the playoff spots.  Big shouts outs to Bremen on +8 VA who climbed well safe of relegation, +6 Chievo who came 20^th.

In a similar way to D3 two of the most underperforming teams Napoli and Celtic on -4VA and -6VA got into the playoff but were dumped out by Lokomotiv and Liverpool in the Semi-finals. Palace on -11VA were rightly relegated , isn’t hard to look beyond the keeper with them as 87 rated keepers are freely available.  Fenerbache will also be disappointed to be relegated on -6 VA where as Dynamo Moscow must count themselves lucky to avoid it.

Overall a middling level of variation +/- 4 per team, I again did slightly better than the A.I.  The A.I. correctly worked out Palace would finish much lower than I thought but did less well on the majority of the lower ranked teams, which does seem to be a theme.

Two playoff finalists lead the stats.

Perhaps it is not a surprise that the two playoff finalists are the two most over performing teams. Galatasaray +11VA and relegation candidate lead the stats just beating +6 VA St Etienne in 2^nd spot. My own Sevilla come 3^rd in the stats, the only automatically promoted team to over perform. While tied on PVA with WBA the superior VA gives us the edge into 3^rd. Having said that WBA and Genoa did what they must in 1^st and 2^nd and should do well in D2.  Dnipro have to get a shout out on +3VA avoiding relegation just.

In reality no one did really badly. Hoffenheim failed to make the playoff when they should and hence are the lowest in the stats, just above Sampdoria who also will look to better next year.   Montpellier’s -5VA dropped them into the relegation zone along with Partizan. 2 of the 4 predicted teams were relegated and no one outside the lowest 6 teams escaped which is food for thought.   

The variation in D3 was very similar to D1, less than +/- 3 positions per team, I did slightly better on 56 pts out vs 58pts the A.I failed to spot the mild under-performing teams as well as I did.

Espanyol +14VA +5PVA the stats winners.

Some big winners and some big not winners in D2.  Espanyol were a potential relegation team at the start of the season but true grit, good management and transfers pushed them to promotion.  Playoff team Wolfsburg had +10 VA and could have gained promotion over Espanyol had they slipped up. Internacional came 2^nd in the league and 3^rd in the stats. Other great over preforming teams were Augsburg on +10 VA, Everton on +6 and Atletico Madrid on +5.  Arsenal did all they could and won the league.

At the wrong end. Flamengo who should have been promoted slipped to 12^th and -9VA and the worse PVA,  Liege on -11 VA managed to get relegated with a great squad with Malaga on -8 VA suffering the same fate.  Anderlecht can also count themselves lucky on -7 VA to stay up.

There was a much bigger variation in D2.  My total was 102 and the AI 100. The A.I was generally more optimistic about the over performing teams but not pessimistic enough with the underperforming teams.

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Chelsea well deserved champions and leaders in the stats.

Usual reminder. At the start of the year, I calculated the ratings in the 4 main positions, Top18 and Average. This is plugged in a magic formula and finishing position calculated. This is used to work out the Positional value added, which is based on the value added and finishing position.

Chelsea finished a position higher than expected and overcame their closest opposition.  Barcelona in 2^nd spot in the league and the stats, also showed distinct improvement this season, with Leicester in 3^rd place also showing that a new boss can continue the good form.

Highest value added goes to Hertha predicted 11^th they came 6^th and get a slightly higher value added than Sporting who came 5^th. CSKA had the only other largish VA on +4 avoiding relegation.

Biggest underperformance, probably this goes down to Dortmund who slumped to 7^th spot, but could also be with Juventus on -7 VA or Inter on -5 VA and relegation.

3 of the predicted relegation teams went down.

How did the A.I. do. From 20 teams my total variation for 58 and the A.I. 60, so I did slightly better. The A.I. did get 2 teams spot on but I got more than half the teams within +/- 2 positions.

The title is settled, the playoff race is anything but, and a few managers are already checking whether their contracts contain a severance package.

With just two matches remaining in the Division 5 season, the campaign is entering its final days. While Valencia have already wrapped up the championship, several important battles remain unresolved as clubs prepare for the final six points on offer.

Valencia Crowned Champions

The title race is over.

Valencia CF are mathematically confirmed Division 5 champions after opening up a 13-point lead at the top with only six points left to play for. It has been a dominant campaign from start to finish, built on a combination of attacking quality and defensive discipline.

Their record of 26 wins from 36 matches, alongside 93 goals scored and a league-best goal difference of +59, leaves little room for argument. They have simply been the best side in the division.

With promotion already secured and the trophy effectively polished and waiting, Valencia can approach the final two fixtures knowing the job has been completed.

Marseille And Athletic Club Secure Promotion

The automatic promotion places have also been decided.

Olympique Marseille's 71 points and Athletic Club's 68 points mean both clubs are guaranteed to finish inside the top three and will join Valencia in Division 4 next season.

Marseille's consistency has been the foundation of their success. Twenty wins and eleven draws have ensured they remained among the leading contenders throughout the campaign.

Athletic Club's route has been slightly different. Their season has contained more highs and lows than their rivals, but 22 victories have provided enough points to secure promotion with games to spare.

The only remaining question is who finishes second and who settles for third.

Four Teams, Three Places

While the automatic promotion spots are settled, the playoff race remains alive.

Santos FC currently occupy fourth place on 60 points and have arguably been the division's form side in recent weeks, winning five of their last six matches. Their late surge has put them in a strong position to secure a playoff berth.

Rubin Kazan sit level on 60 points, while Villarreal CF are sixth on 59.

AZ Alkmaar currently hold seventh place on 58 points, but their position is far from secure. Shakhtar Donetsk are level on points and PSV remain only two points behind on 56. Torino with an outside chance sit on 54.

With seven clubs separated by just six points and only four playoff places available, the final week promises to be one of the most competitive periods of the season.

One good result could be enough to secure a playoff place. One bad result could end a promotion dream.

Mid-Table Security

Celta Vigo, Girondins Bordeaux, Lazio and Olympiacos all appear destined for mid-table finishes.

Their seasons have produced moments of quality, but not quite enough consistency to challenge for promotion. With little left to play for in terms of league position, pride and finishing as strongly as possible become the primary objectives.

The Fight To Avoid The Sack

With no relegation in Division 5, the battle at the bottom still bears consequence.

The managers finishing in the bottom three positions will lose their jobs at the end of the season, creating a nervous finish for several clubs.

Sassuolo currently occupy 18th place on 33 points. They sit 18 points clear of 19th and only 4 behind Atalanta.

That leaves FC Twente and Stuttgart already condemned to bottom-three finishes, with Twente collecting only 15 points and Stuttgart enduring a miserable campaign that has yielded just 11.

The final dismissal spot is effectively a battle between Atalanta BC, Club Brugge and Spartak Moskva.

Spartak currently hold a five-point cushion over Atalanta and appear to have done enough to preserve their manager's position. Club Brugge sit four points clear of danger and remain favourites to survive.

Atalanta, however, remain vulnerable. Sitting on 37 points with only six available, they need a strong finish to avoid ending the season in the bottom three and facing an uncomfortable conversation with the board.

Two matches remain.

For some clubs, they are little more than a formality.

For others, they will define the entire season.

Bayern back on top! After relinquishing the top power ranking spot to Hellas Verona last season, Bayern is back on top, with Chelsea also leapfrogging Verona.

Holding down the basement for the 3rd year in a row is Stuttgart. Those poor supporters!

My club CSKA climbed 8 spots to #45. Our first season ever in D1 looks statistically impossible.

Biggest Risers from S26: Celta Vigo moved from 97 to 66 while Cologne/Koln moved from 52 way up to 25.

Biggest Fallers from S26: Boca Juniors and Man United both fell almost 25 spots. Must be a Cavani thing.

How does everyone look compared to S20 when I first started tracking?

Napoli, Zenit, and Sevilla have all climbed almost 50 spots! On the opposite end Schalke, Sassuolo, and Werder Bremen supporters are all left in tears from the on-field product moving down close to 50 spots (Schalke is down 62 spots in the power rankings!!).

It should be a good season for West Brom, Genoa, and Napoli as they far outrank their opponents. Augsburg and CSKA appear to stand almost no chance of survival.

Two strong favourites for promotion, who can join them?

A division of contrasts to be sure.  Some ruinously bad teams, that are for some reason uncompetitive, despite higher rated players being freely available, this could cause some skewed stats in this division if they make a number of purchases during the season. On that note I have capped Stuttgart’s top 18 to 78 as I believe that 70 rated players will not feature much in the first team.

Valencia is an easy side to get promoted strong all-over best keeper in the division best midfield, best depth.  Marseille may be the best defence in the league and have a great attack but will lack in possession at times.  AZ a more balanced team are in 3^rd spot but they lack more depth than their 2 rivals. Celta Vigo currently managerless are the 4^th best team in the division and have a potent front line.  Santos, Brugge and Torino should make up the top 7 with very little disagreement from the A.I.

In fact, with 1 exception of Shaktar the A.I. and I  (sounds like a Christmas musical for about 20 years’ time) agree very closely.  The A.I.  maybe thinks the weak keeper and lack of midfield strength will be more of a problem.

No relegation of course, Stuttgart is dire and utterly uncompetitive, Bordeaux makes more of an effort and if they could swap a few midfielders for defenders could soon have a decent squad.  Twente just need to sort the keeper and defender.

Possible outliers: Brugge could drop to 10-12^th due to a large depth gap, Kazan are predicted to be vulnerable to injuries of suspension with a possible low point of 16^th.  Atalanta could push up as high as 11^th due to a small depth gap and balance within the squad.

Solid agreement on the top 3 in this division.

There is certainly a growing trend of 2 or 3 top teams followed by a close pack of teams. Napoli are favourites with the usual top and tail technique that works well in the lower divisions. Lokomotiv are a well-balanced outfit and they are just a little more solid in midfield to close rivals Celtic who should make up the top 3.

Liverpool or Monaco look set for 4^th or 5^th just a variation of keeper and attacking strength. Ajax look set for around 6^th spot, no big 90 ratings but a well-rounded squad maybe lacking a bit of depth. Palace are the first team with a big difference between me and the A.I., the weaker keeper is a major concern for the A.I. as is the lack of depth. Independiente is the A.I.s last playoff spot team and I can see why with a well set up balanced squad.  A can see Dynamo Moscow making a good cup run with their strength in depth. If you assume around 219 to survive D3 then they would be the last team who could get promoted and not immediately relegated again.

The two German sides Schalke and Bremen hold up the table, good enough attacks but defence and midfield lack enough depth to handle the better teams.  Lyon look to be in trouble half a point away from anyone else defence and keeper are too weak Then comes some disagreement, Feyenoord also are really vulnerable at the back I see them in 17^th spot, the A.I. says that Dynamo Kiev lack depth meaning their advantages in attack and midfield could come back to bite them.

What about possible outliers?  Palace are seen as attack heavy with a large depth gap possible low point of 15^th, Kiev may not even make 17^th if their lack of depth has a serious impact. Dynamo Moscow could go as high as 5^th   if that huge depth helps them out.