Santos the clear favourites who will join them.

Quick note, there were 2 obvious ABDs that I noticed and actioned as they may well have gone through before publication.

Santos have a top team in most of the important categories of D5 and would be at least playoff contenders in the division above.  Fiorentina have that rare thing in D5 a 90 rated attacker who will strike fear into the heart of the opposition defence.  Palace could achieve great things if they exchange that 86 rated keepers for an 87and gathered up a bit of depth but they are ranked 3^rd.

Celta the first playoff team, attack and midfield are the main strengths Torino a favoured top and tail team a potent 89/89 sandwich perhaps lacking a bit of filling.  If 217.5 is needed to survive D4 then Lazio, Olympiacos, Twente, Fenerbahce and AZ could all push for promotion with little fear of future problems.  Stuttgart continues to be pretty much the worse team in the history of T100 despite the early point which may be few and far between. Spartak also sit adrift of everyone else. Lyon and River Plate at least can see the opposition in the distance.

Quick hint you don’t need to pick up all the best grains of sand to build the best brick wall worth thinking about. All teams could have 11-12 decent players and then the rest could be whatever you make of it to stay competitive.

What does the A.I. make of all this? More or less thinks the same. Torino are predicted to finish lower due to lack of depth, AZ are predicted to be closer to the playoff spots due to the balance in the side and strong keeper.

Giant killers in the cup Lazio or Brugge

Napoli or Valencia which place in sun will be champs.

Napoli are a cut above any other team in the league, a 90 rated keeper, strongest attack, strongest mid should be game set and match even at this early stage. Valencia perhaps a keeper short of challenging their Italian rivals but they should have the defence to lock out most rivals.  Lokomotive also sit pretty in 3^rd spot a mighty midfield perhaps shields a lack of depth in parts of a team but nothing unexpected in D4.  That is obviously the point, in D4 an 86 can’t be classed as a week player and an 88 would be considered a strong one.

The playoff places should be contended by 4 of 6 teams which the A.I. and I agree on. PSG a decent attack but weaker in goal are favoured over Dynamo who are a similar team with a stronger defence gut weaker attack.  Montpellier are up for the top and tail approach so favoured in lower league with Marseille and Celtic trying the same tactic.  Independiente are a more balanced squad but do they lack a little depth especially if they get to the playoffs where that is more vital.

You need 219 to survive in division 3 so Partizan should not be discounted if their lack of depth doesn’t hamper them.  Anything less than 218 and you are looking to be served some relegation steak with a side order of sour grapes.  Bremen sits above that cut off.  Kazan looks beyond help at the moment, too weak all round, they will get relegated if nothing is done.  Athletic club really do now need a better keeper to avoid returning to D5.  Lyon are counting on a potent attack out scoring the opposition in high scoring fixtures but this hasn’t gone well so far.  River Plate could just survive. A keeper and defence that is decent for the league with a midfield screen and an ok attack.  Feyenoord even more so than River Plate with Chievo going for the balanced approach. Up for the cup, well Valencia, Dynamo and Marseille should be.

Only one really noticeable disagreement with the A.I. and that is Dynamo Kyiv, I see them mid table or maybe better with that top and tail combo. The A.I. though prefers the more balanced defensive approach of Newcastle to finish in the top half.

Too tight to call at the top of D3

In division 3 unless you inherit a D1 team a compromise has to be made.  So in the block of 9 teams down to Ajax you have every variety and combination of strength and weakness that you could encounter.

Zenit while well balanced are reliant on a strong attack and must be favoured to overpower most weaker-keeper teams. Liege have the top an tail approach of the strong keeper decent attack in 2^nd spot along with some depth. Boca are the one trick pony of super strong attacker, little or no depth. The A.I. chooses to punish this approach seeing them as relegation contenders this year.  Hoffenheim are an evenly balanced team with loads of depth very similar to Monaco who sit just below them

Sampdoria sacrifice depth for attack , unlike St Etienne who trade in depth for defence.  Last but not least Ajax with a well balanced starting team lacking depth and a strong keeper.

You would need 221.5 to survive in D2 so other than the top 2 all the rest have plenty to do.

218.4 was the relegation cut off last season and only two teams sit below that level, though if we consider the quality of the teams promoted to D2 that is not a great shock as the quality in D3 has dropped by around 0.25 pt per starter this season.  Even so only Dnipro who are the eternal survivors and Malaga look sure to drop.  Basel are predicted by both the A.I. and myself to also fall but the A.I. thinks Southampton will survive in 14^th replaced by Boca who it predicts will drop.

Double bounce for Genoa, stats say so.

As alluded to last season Genoa have a mighty team in strength and depth. The one weakness is at the back but they still are almost 1.3 pts over the 4^th place team meaning promotion at least should be guaranteed. That team are Inter, who go for a midfield approach at the expense of the back line.  Stoke sit at the head of 3 other teams over 224, which if you remember is the cut off for D1 prosperity.  Stoke really are a rounded team and should last the pace with their depth.  Cruzeiro sacrifice some depth for a more attacking line up, expect a strong start to the season and the potential to challenge the top 2 if they stay free of injury and suspension.  Milan makes up the trio very similar all round to Cruzeiro.  Time to introduce the A.I. because our robot overlords disagree with my findings and see Leverkusen as key title contenders perhaps it is their greater defensive prowess that is seen as important.  Flamengo are the last team predicted for the playoffs a very strong front line, but it is hard to ignore WBA who did so well last season and still sport a powerful squad.

Up for the cup, well beyond those mentioned West Ham and Sevilla seem to have plenty of depth combined with a decent keeper.

Last season 221 put you in serious relegation danger. This must mean that Galatasaray are in serious trouble, Augsburg may have a good enough attack to overcome their rivals. You really could perm any 2 of Anderlecht. Udinese. Madrid, West Ham, Man Utd or Sevilla. Looking more carefully it is likely that Man Utd will be the wild card, low top 18 but stronger squad. If they get behind early on in the season and get injuries, they would find it hard to progress, conversely a good start and a bit of luck could find them well clear before the relegation battle begins.

The big A.I. differences are. Atletico Madrid. The A.I. see’s them relegated due to the lack of depth, which I think it is over egging and West Ham it predicts as 7 places higher, maybe their well-rounded team will finish better than expected with the level of depth they have.

Chelsea the highest ranked team just above Porto, is balance the key to all things?

How it all work. I calculate the average rating in the four main positions, the top 18 and the average. A formula calculates the ETOT which is the ranking each team gets based on each position. If for any reason the lowest ranked top 18 player is much lower than anyone else I adjust that using common sense so as not to skew the results.

The only thing Chelsea lack is depth. It would be possible for 2 or 3 injuries to break them down sufficiently for others to challenge.  Porto, Barca and Hellas have a strong attacking line but too often the rip each other apart leaving Chelsea unscathed.  Hellas have great depth but an 89 keeper doesn’t cut it in D1.

Juventus have the top and tail approach of great keeper and attack, a few players of the highest quality in midfield and they could challenge once more.  Leicester joins them in the strongest lead pack again a well balanced

What about relegation prospects?  Last year under 224 meant a 75% chance of relegation. So there are 4 clear favourites. Espanyol not really built for D1 will struggle at all levels.  Internacional do have a strong keeper and more depth. CSKA did so well last season to stay up but this season it will be even tougher. Man City will be 100% reliant on their tough keeper. Hamburg are the only other team close to 224 but they are now much more balanced and have great depth, this could leave Cologne vulnerable with a few injuries.

The A.I. has also made its own ranking and it does closely agree with me. Berlin and Arsenal are predicted to swap places but all the others are + or – 1 at most.

Bilboko Athletic Kluba estatistikaren txapelduna.

In honour of my wife and kids basque heritage, indeed Athletic club were the champions of the stats. +11 VA and +6 PVA leading to automatic promotion as part of a long term project.  They are narrowly ahead of Kazan and PSV on +7 and +8 VA , the two playoff finalists (sounds familiar over achieving teams triumphing in the playoff while underachieving higher rank teams fail ).

Valencia were the hot favourites all year and can relax into D4 life knowing they are more than likely to go up again.  Big positive scores go to Shaktar on +5 and Bordeaux on +6 VA showing that managerial skill plays an important part still.

No relegation of course so who stats wise did the worse.  Brugge hold that record with -10 VA, they should have been playoff bound but narrowly avoided the sack race. Celta did little better with -7VA, Olympiacos and Spartak also did worse than expected.

3 of the lowest 4 landed where they should with 5th worse team Sassuolo joining them.

A middle level of variaion in D5 , I out did the A.I. again by around 4 pts total.  Once again the A.I. slipped up more predicting under performing teams.

Ajax win the league and the stats.

+5VA pushed the Ajax team from playoff team to champions. A great performance from Moenchengladbach saw them come in 3^rd with a +8VA, in the stats they just lead the other promoted team Liverpool who on +2 VA came 2^nd in the league. Highest VA goes to Lyon on +10 , they just missed out on the playoff spots.  Big shouts outs to Bremen on +8 VA who climbed well safe of relegation, +6 Chievo who came 20^th.

In a similar way to D3 two of the most underperforming teams Napoli and Celtic on -4VA and -6VA got into the playoff but were dumped out by Lokomotiv and Liverpool in the Semi-finals. Palace on -11VA were rightly relegated , isn’t hard to look beyond the keeper with them as 87 rated keepers are freely available.  Fenerbache will also be disappointed to be relegated on -6 VA where as Dynamo Moscow must count themselves lucky to avoid it.

Overall a middling level of variation +/- 4 per team, I again did slightly better than the A.I.  The A.I. correctly worked out Palace would finish much lower than I thought but did less well on the majority of the lower ranked teams, which does seem to be a theme.

Two playoff finalists lead the stats.

Perhaps it is not a surprise that the two playoff finalists are the two most over performing teams. Galatasaray +11VA and relegation candidate lead the stats just beating +6 VA St Etienne in 2^nd spot. My own Sevilla come 3^rd in the stats, the only automatically promoted team to over perform. While tied on PVA with WBA the superior VA gives us the edge into 3^rd. Having said that WBA and Genoa did what they must in 1^st and 2^nd and should do well in D2.  Dnipro have to get a shout out on +3VA avoiding relegation just.

In reality no one did really badly. Hoffenheim failed to make the playoff when they should and hence are the lowest in the stats, just above Sampdoria who also will look to better next year.   Montpellier’s -5VA dropped them into the relegation zone along with Partizan. 2 of the 4 predicted teams were relegated and no one outside the lowest 6 teams escaped which is food for thought.   

The variation in D3 was very similar to D1, less than +/- 3 positions per team, I did slightly better on 56 pts out vs 58pts the A.I failed to spot the mild under-performing teams as well as I did.

Espanyol +14VA +5PVA the stats winners.

Some big winners and some big not winners in D2.  Espanyol were a potential relegation team at the start of the season but true grit, good management and transfers pushed them to promotion.  Playoff team Wolfsburg had +10 VA and could have gained promotion over Espanyol had they slipped up. Internacional came 2^nd in the league and 3^rd in the stats. Other great over preforming teams were Augsburg on +10 VA, Everton on +6 and Atletico Madrid on +5.  Arsenal did all they could and won the league.

At the wrong end. Flamengo who should have been promoted slipped to 12^th and -9VA and the worse PVA,  Liege on -11 VA managed to get relegated with a great squad with Malaga on -8 VA suffering the same fate.  Anderlecht can also count themselves lucky on -7 VA to stay up.

There was a much bigger variation in D2.  My total was 102 and the AI 100. The A.I was generally more optimistic about the over performing teams but not pessimistic enough with the underperforming teams.

.

Chelsea well deserved champions and leaders in the stats.

Usual reminder. At the start of the year, I calculated the ratings in the 4 main positions, Top18 and Average. This is plugged in a magic formula and finishing position calculated. This is used to work out the Positional value added, which is based on the value added and finishing position.

Chelsea finished a position higher than expected and overcame their closest opposition.  Barcelona in 2^nd spot in the league and the stats, also showed distinct improvement this season, with Leicester in 3^rd place also showing that a new boss can continue the good form.

Highest value added goes to Hertha predicted 11^th they came 6^th and get a slightly higher value added than Sporting who came 5^th. CSKA had the only other largish VA on +4 avoiding relegation.

Biggest underperformance, probably this goes down to Dortmund who slumped to 7^th spot, but could also be with Juventus on -7 VA or Inter on -5 VA and relegation.

3 of the predicted relegation teams went down.

How did the A.I. do. From 20 teams my total variation for 58 and the A.I. 60, so I did slightly better. The A.I. did get 2 teams spot on but I got more than half the teams within +/- 2 positions.

The title is settled, the playoff race is anything but, and a few managers are already checking whether their contracts contain a severance package.

With just two matches remaining in the Division 5 season, the campaign is entering its final days. While Valencia have already wrapped up the championship, several important battles remain unresolved as clubs prepare for the final six points on offer.

Valencia Crowned Champions

The title race is over.

Valencia CF are mathematically confirmed Division 5 champions after opening up a 13-point lead at the top with only six points left to play for. It has been a dominant campaign from start to finish, built on a combination of attacking quality and defensive discipline.

Their record of 26 wins from 36 matches, alongside 93 goals scored and a league-best goal difference of +59, leaves little room for argument. They have simply been the best side in the division.

With promotion already secured and the trophy effectively polished and waiting, Valencia can approach the final two fixtures knowing the job has been completed.

Marseille And Athletic Club Secure Promotion

The automatic promotion places have also been decided.

Olympique Marseille's 71 points and Athletic Club's 68 points mean both clubs are guaranteed to finish inside the top three and will join Valencia in Division 4 next season.

Marseille's consistency has been the foundation of their success. Twenty wins and eleven draws have ensured they remained among the leading contenders throughout the campaign.

Athletic Club's route has been slightly different. Their season has contained more highs and lows than their rivals, but 22 victories have provided enough points to secure promotion with games to spare.

The only remaining question is who finishes second and who settles for third.

Four Teams, Three Places

While the automatic promotion spots are settled, the playoff race remains alive.

Santos FC currently occupy fourth place on 60 points and have arguably been the division's form side in recent weeks, winning five of their last six matches. Their late surge has put them in a strong position to secure a playoff berth.

Rubin Kazan sit level on 60 points, while Villarreal CF are sixth on 59.

AZ Alkmaar currently hold seventh place on 58 points, but their position is far from secure. Shakhtar Donetsk are level on points and PSV remain only two points behind on 56. Torino with an outside chance sit on 54.

With seven clubs separated by just six points and only four playoff places available, the final week promises to be one of the most competitive periods of the season.

One good result could be enough to secure a playoff place. One bad result could end a promotion dream.

Mid-Table Security

Celta Vigo, Girondins Bordeaux, Lazio and Olympiacos all appear destined for mid-table finishes.

Their seasons have produced moments of quality, but not quite enough consistency to challenge for promotion. With little left to play for in terms of league position, pride and finishing as strongly as possible become the primary objectives.

The Fight To Avoid The Sack

With no relegation in Division 5, the battle at the bottom still bears consequence.

The managers finishing in the bottom three positions will lose their jobs at the end of the season, creating a nervous finish for several clubs.

Sassuolo currently occupy 18th place on 33 points. They sit 18 points clear of 19th and only 4 behind Atalanta.

That leaves FC Twente and Stuttgart already condemned to bottom-three finishes, with Twente collecting only 15 points and Stuttgart enduring a miserable campaign that has yielded just 11.

The final dismissal spot is effectively a battle between Atalanta BC, Club Brugge and Spartak Moskva.

Spartak currently hold a five-point cushion over Atalanta and appear to have done enough to preserve their manager's position. Club Brugge sit four points clear of danger and remain favourites to survive.

Atalanta, however, remain vulnerable. Sitting on 37 points with only six available, they need a strong finish to avoid ending the season in the bottom three and facing an uncomfortable conversation with the board.

Two matches remain.

For some clubs, they are little more than a formality.

For others, they will define the entire season.

Bayern back on top! After relinquishing the top power ranking spot to Hellas Verona last season, Bayern is back on top, with Chelsea also leapfrogging Verona.

Holding down the basement for the 3rd year in a row is Stuttgart. Those poor supporters!

My club CSKA climbed 8 spots to #45. Our first season ever in D1 looks statistically impossible.

Biggest Risers from S26: Celta Vigo moved from 97 to 66 while Cologne/Koln moved from 52 way up to 25.

Biggest Fallers from S26: Boca Juniors and Man United both fell almost 25 spots. Must be a Cavani thing.

How does everyone look compared to S20 when I first started tracking?

Napoli, Zenit, and Sevilla have all climbed almost 50 spots! On the opposite end Schalke, Sassuolo, and Werder Bremen supporters are all left in tears from the on-field product moving down close to 50 spots (Schalke is down 62 spots in the power rankings!!).

It should be a good season for West Brom, Genoa, and Napoli as they far outrank their opponents. Augsburg and CSKA appear to stand almost no chance of survival.

Two strong favourites for promotion, who can join them?

A division of contrasts to be sure.  Some ruinously bad teams, that are for some reason uncompetitive, despite higher rated players being freely available, this could cause some skewed stats in this division if they make a number of purchases during the season. On that note I have capped Stuttgart’s top 18 to 78 as I believe that 70 rated players will not feature much in the first team.

Valencia is an easy side to get promoted strong all-over best keeper in the division best midfield, best depth.  Marseille may be the best defence in the league and have a great attack but will lack in possession at times.  AZ a more balanced team are in 3^rd spot but they lack more depth than their 2 rivals. Celta Vigo currently managerless are the 4^th best team in the division and have a potent front line.  Santos, Brugge and Torino should make up the top 7 with very little disagreement from the A.I.

In fact, with 1 exception of Shaktar the A.I. and I  (sounds like a Christmas musical for about 20 years’ time) agree very closely.  The A.I.  maybe thinks the weak keeper and lack of midfield strength will be more of a problem.

No relegation of course, Stuttgart is dire and utterly uncompetitive, Bordeaux makes more of an effort and if they could swap a few midfielders for defenders could soon have a decent squad.  Twente just need to sort the keeper and defender.

Possible outliers: Brugge could drop to 10-12^th due to a large depth gap, Kazan are predicted to be vulnerable to injuries of suspension with a possible low point of 16^th.  Atalanta could push up as high as 11^th due to a small depth gap and balance within the squad.

Solid agreement on the top 3 in this division.

There is certainly a growing trend of 2 or 3 top teams followed by a close pack of teams. Napoli are favourites with the usual top and tail technique that works well in the lower divisions. Lokomotiv are a well-balanced outfit and they are just a little more solid in midfield to close rivals Celtic who should make up the top 3.

Liverpool or Monaco look set for 4^th or 5^th just a variation of keeper and attacking strength. Ajax look set for around 6^th spot, no big 90 ratings but a well-rounded squad maybe lacking a bit of depth. Palace are the first team with a big difference between me and the A.I., the weaker keeper is a major concern for the A.I. as is the lack of depth. Independiente is the A.I.s last playoff spot team and I can see why with a well set up balanced squad.  A can see Dynamo Moscow making a good cup run with their strength in depth. If you assume around 219 to survive D3 then they would be the last team who could get promoted and not immediately relegated again.

The two German sides Schalke and Bremen hold up the table, good enough attacks but defence and midfield lack enough depth to handle the better teams.  Lyon look to be in trouble half a point away from anyone else defence and keeper are too weak Then comes some disagreement, Feyenoord also are really vulnerable at the back I see them in 17^th spot, the A.I. says that Dynamo Kiev lack depth meaning their advantages in attack and midfield could come back to bite them.

What about possible outliers?  Palace are seen as attack heavy with a large depth gap possible low point of 15^th, Kiev may not even make 17^th if their lack of depth has a serious impact. Dynamo Moscow could go as high as 5^th   if that huge depth helps them out.

Who will win the battle for 3^rd place.

West Brom and Genoa, should both be in Division 1 and would probably win Division 2 at a canter. The only thin holding back Genoa is their keeper and for West Brom maybe there could be even more depth.

Zenit are the clear favourites for 3^rd spot even if the A.I. sees it a bit different but with a good Keeper, Midfield and Attack that should be enough.  Then there is the usually closely matched pack with 8 teams more or less within 1 pt of each other.  Hoffenheim go for the midfield possession, the A.I sees them overhauling Zenit for that reason. My own Sevilla sit 5^th maybe the last gasp of an ageing squad, Sampdoria are the 6^th placed team in my stats but the A.I. sees the lack of depth as being more problematical than I do.  Lille are my 7^th place team a strong attack and midfield, the A.I. is less bothered about the weaker keeper than I am.

If you assume 221.3 is survival in D2, probably no team lower than Lille would survive D2 , however the A.I. sees Sunderland as having a fighting chance with their strong midfield line.

There is much stronger agreement for the relegation teams, 6 of the lower 8 match with only 2 swapping 1 position.  218.1 was more or less the cut off last season, so River Plate much the weakest team look set to go down, Dnipro look to finish 19^th but you pick them for relegation at your peril.  Galatasaray and Newcastle are well shy of the other teams with the possible exception of Partizan.

Who could be the outliers?  St Etienne a lack of depth could drop as low as 14^th.  Spurs may get off to a good start but likely to prove inconsistent during the season could drop to 15^th – 17^th if they have injuries or suspensions.  Newcastle on the other hand have a good amount of depth and balance, they could finish as high as 12^th to 14^th and finally River Plate despite being weaker than anyone else they could reach 17^th as no one position is likely to suffer due to losing a player or 2.

Arsenal to win the league, human and A.I. agree but could they be an outlier?

Not as close at the top as D1, Arsenal has a clear division 1 squad and should get promoted with ease.  Stoke in addition there is solid agreement that the well-balanced team with loads of depths should finish second well ahead of their nearest rivals.  This is where things get tricky. Only 1pt separates the next 6 teams rather like the top of D1, so a small deviation from form could place the 3^rd place team out of the play off spots.  Flamengo if they score enough should finish 3^rd but are they over reliant on their attack when they have a weak keeper.  The A.I. sees them finishing 7^th and maybe lower.  My 4^th place team Internacional are the A.I.s choice for 3^rd, seeing them as more balanced even if depth is slightly less.  Benfica also a balanced team with a good attack should be 5^th or 6^th, before we reach another big difference in Cologne. I see them as coming 6^th, the A.I. says 12^th, even more so though Anderlecht who I see as a playoff team but the A.I. sees struggling to avoid relegation. If you assume 224 is needed to survive D1 all the teams except Arsenal and Stoke have plenty to do if promoted.

Liege is the A.I.s big winner finishing in 4^th rather than 8^th and it also see’s West Ham finishing as high as 5^th.

There is general agreement that current top team Augsburg will struggle finishing last or 2^nd to last with Boca Juniors.  They should be joined by Dinamo Zagreb. I see Espanyol as relegation territory but the A.I. does not agree, with Real Madrid being unfavoured by the robotic calculator. Interestingly only Augsburg are below last seasons cut off point of 219.8 for relegation.

The four biggest uncertainties are around Arsenal if hit by injuries or a poor rotational policy could drop them to 4 – 6^th spot. Flamengo could lack consistency and the A.I. says in a worse circumstance they could drop to 10 – 12^th.  Cologne has a big depth gap so with bad luck could finish 15 – 17^th.  Zagreb has a small depth gap and that could count in their favour with a finish between 13^th – 15^th although that may only be evident after the mid-season.

I say Dortmund should win the league the A.I. says Chelsea (with a big caveat) who is correct.

Usual preamble. I work out the average rating in each of the 4 key positions, the lowest player in the top 18 and the average. This calculates a rating the ETOT, This is used to predicted the final position.

Last year I practiced with some A.I. data which only did marginally worse than I did. During the preseason I trained it with 5 more divisions of data. It came up with the A.I. formula and also was able to spot possible outliers.

It is closer at the top of D1 than ever. Any one of 6 teams have a good chance. Dortmund is just the top team with a great attack, midfield and some depth.  Chelsea who the A.I. predict to win are my 2^nd team, only a lack of depth hampers them. Hellas have greater depth than the Atlantic Ocean but you can’t play all those superstars, they are ranked 3^rd.  Barcelona 4^th ranked form me with that potent attacking threat, Porto a well-balanced team have good depth and a good attack.  They sit above Leicester who have a new gaffer who would be looking to push them to the top of the table.

There is then a sizeable gap to Juventus and the chasing pack.  At the lower end of the table if we say 224 is the cut off for survival, CSKA look doomed to me unless their keeper can save them, Cruzeiro have a good attack but an 88 keeper in D1 will struggle.  Milan and Leverkusen are close to the cut off and maybe their depth will save them.

The A.I. also looked at possible outliers and believes that Chelsea and Barcelona have the biggest potential to underperform placing Chelsea as low as 4-6^th place and Barcelona 9^th – 11^th as outliers. 

It also sees Levante as maybe pushing up to 4- 6^th spot and CSKA maybe 15^th – 17^th due to solid depth and keeper strength.

PSV lead the stats but fall at the first play-off hurdle.

Sometimes life is cruel maybe Santos had the advantage of being able to rest their team but a +13 VA and 3.5 PVA shows how close PSV were to getting out of D5.

Atalanta were 2^nd in the stats but they also failed in the first leg of the play offs to Chievo. Chievo the eventual playoff winners had a great +7 VA and well deserved their play off win. Celta not in any kind of play off but a +10 VA shows the improvements the previous boss put in place. Notable shout out to Monaco with 3^rd place and promotion, Independiente and Napoli who did all they could from a strong position.

Holding up the other 5 divisions are Brugge, should have been 2^nd, came 14^th with -12VA, Rubin had a worse VA on -14 but from a slightly lower initial base which is why their PVA is less bad. Torino, Villareal and Marseille on – 7 VA failed to make the progress they could have done.

So human eye or A.I., A.I. had Celta finishing higher than I did but over egged Spartak, Villareal and Kazan.

I will do a number crunch tomorrow to see who won the battle of the stats.

Crowd goes wild in Basel and Newcastle

Always a strong team Basel exceeded expectations and won the league and stats on +6VA and +7PVA.  Newcastle also auto promoted had a huge +12 VA and 4.33PVA come 2^nd in the stats and 3^rd in the league.  Partizan also had a great +8 VA and are still n with a chance of promotion by the play offs. Lille alos auto promoted in 2^nd. Notable big positive Vas to Feyenoord, Lyon and Besitkas

Valencia had a terrible season, should have been promoted but now sink to division 5 with – 16 VA , will not be a problem to get them back up again. Lokomotiv also had a poor season on -9 VA, Celtic good redeem themselves if they overcome Partizan in the playoffs. Liverpool and especially relegated Olympiacos must be wondering what went wrong.

A.I. or human eye.. The big stand out was A.I thinking Kiev would come 7^th when they came 10^th and Olympiacos 9^th, no obvious reason for that.

Wolfsburg head the stats and the league.

Three great VA scores in D3, firstly Wolfsburg predicted to just miss out on the playoffs they won the league in the end quite easily. In the league 2 points separated the next 6 teams.  Sunderland unlucky to lose in the playoffs but a great +7 VA. West Ham 3^rd in the league and the stats had +4VA.  St Etienne just missed out on the play off spots but a +5 VA shows progress made. Galatasaray had +6 VA and finished in the top half of the table.  Shout out to Dnipro who got +4VA and avoided relegation.

West Brom sit at the foot of the stats table but all is not lost as they face Flamengo tonight.  Swansea have the lowest VA on -7 and Hoffenheim on -5. Only Dnipro of the predicted relegation teams avoided relegation with PSG slipping into the zone from a predicted 15^th so hardly a shock.

A.I. or human eye who did best.  A.I. predicted Wolfsburg less well but Sunderland slightly better in general by own predictions were slightly better.