The tightest divisional battle by far who will win?

Less than 6 points separate 1^st to last in the stats. Probably will result in the most random results and least accurate predictions but let’s give it a go.

Flamengo have the most depth, best midfield and attack but just lack a quality keeper. Bordeaux in 2^nd pack a punch up front and are solid enough in midfield. Malaga are well balanced except perhaps the keeper and should get auto promotion. Augsburg and Lille  have the best keeper , forward combo and we know this works well in the lower divisions.  Torino look set for a good cup run especially with a good keeper and good depth.  Mid 218 is the cut off to survive D3 so Stuttgart and above should be aiming for promotion this year.

The relegation zone sits at 216.5 most seasons and only 4 teams sit below Dynamo Moscow.  St-Etienne, Montpellier, Sevilla and Fiorentina have their main weakness in defence.  St-Etienne have a fair attack, and the rest a reasonable keeper so with the right tactics all 4 could survive.

Division 4 is much stronger than last season with less difference between first and last.

Who can challenge the top 3 in division 3?

There are 3 teams Inter, Schalke and Anderlecht who could easily win division 2. All 3 have 90 plus attack and Inter are straight 90 across the board. Schalke maybe lack depth but a potent attack must gain them promotion this year. Anderlecht likewise will terrorise lesser teams in D3.

Cruzeiro will be there if any of the top 3 slip up and must be guaranteed a playoff spot as they are 1.5 points above 5^th spot.  Then the gap narrows with Sunderland, Swansea. Zagreb , Palace and Galatasaray fighting out for the remaining spot.  Swansea seem well placed with good depth and a strong attack.  Twente maybe a good cup run bet from a lower division team, with Inter also being able to function in all competitions.

You need 220 to survive D2 so teams as far down as Koln or Sampdoria could look to make the playoffs without fear.

Showing how narrow the gap is between success and failure low 219s means relegation.  As things stand Sassuolo look doomed weak midfield and defence won’t be enough. Ajax lack depth but are much stronger at the back. Zenit are more balanced, while Wolfsburg and Borussia have a relatively strong attack which could be enough to save them

Division 3 in marginally weaker than last season with a similar range between the strongest and weakest sides.

Levante heading back to Division 1?

Straight 90 rated Levante seem set to gain promotion, the only real area of weakness is the depth.  Stoke though in 2^nd have a stronger attack and should be able to challenge them. Sao Paulo have the strongest midfield and are well balanced. Sporting perhaps a keeper short of promotion have a potent outfield and one of the strongest attacks. Liege go for the top and tail approach but do lack some depth. We then have SC Internacional who go out and out depth as the others falter they could well move up the table.

To survive D1 you will need a rating of 224 so Liverpool would also fancy their chance at promotion or play off success.

As for relegation anything under 220 leaves you in real risk of problems. Hamburg know that they will need strong tactics to finish anywhere other than last. Espanyol lack a strong attack and are weak in defence. Promoted Celta are much more potent up top but again do they have enough in defence to survive.  Hoffenheim are also ok at the front but a weak keeper, defensive combination will be troublesome.  AC Milan seem to be more balanced and have good depth,

Division 2 is substantially weaker than last season both on average and the highest / lowest side dropping around 2 points.

Can Chelsea overcome the champions as the stats predict.

A fairly narrow gap splits the top two teams. Hellas have greater depth and a superior defence than Chelsea and match them up top. Chelsea will be using their keeper and midfield to screen the opposing sides.

Dortmund are their closest rivals a well balanced side with a potent attack. Porto are a similar side to  Chelsea with the same kind of balance with Juve another side that is balanced throughout.

Benfica have an obvious weakness in defence but are otherwise a tough side to crack,  Bayern have greater depth than any side in the league and as the season goes on they should make greater progress.  Everton are the wild card side for me, lacking in depth a weaker keeper but on their day could match anyone.

As for relegation 224 is a fair cut off.  This leave 5 sides in obvious danger. Villa with less depth a relatively poor keeper and defence combo might be in more trouble than 17^th suggests.    Valencia have a strong attack but may struggle throughout as will Southampton.  West Brom go for the top and tail technique. Hope your keeper saves you and the attack can punt in a few goals.

Division 1 is slightly stronger than last season but with less difference between the highest and lowest teams.

Usual explanation here:

Teams are rated using a formula which looks at the 4 main positions, GK,DEF,MID and FWD, along with the 18^th ranked player ( the lowest ranked player likely to play ) and the Average.

This produced ETOT the ranking used to work out the final position. This formula is more or less unchanged from around season 4 onwards. There is human input in deciding the most likely team. In addition on occasions the 18^th ranked player ( or less ) in much lower rated, I may choose to ignore that to not skew the stats.

Independiente have a really solid side, it should be a relatively easy ride into D4, they top and tail their team nicely and have good depth. Then perhaps much like the current seasons the rest of the placings will be hard fought by a large number of teams. Boca and Lazio also both top and tail their team with a strong GK, ATT combo. Lazio lack depth which will cost them. Santos have a good midfield but are weaker uptop.

Spartak need a good keeper as do Kyiv,. Kazan look well balanced again.

The cut off for survival in D4 isn’t that high at 216.5 so this rightly suggest all teams down to Athletic club could feature in the playoff and get promoted.

Lower down only the sack race to worry about. Basel, Lyon and Partizan lack any depth.  Newcastle need a good rebuild with only rating above 87.

Division 5 is considerably stronger than last year up half a rating point from the previous season. This is probably due to rebuilds, no contracts and a particularly weak team gaining promotion.

Atalanta deserved leaders in the stats and they win the league.

Finishing 3 places above expected Atatlanta have +4 PVA. They sit just above fellow promoted team Montpellier who have a VA of +9. However the teams with the highest VA are Besitkas and Seville on +10 , both made the playoffs although only Seville survived the first round. Athletic club the opponents of Seville sit on +6 VA and Newcastle get an honourable mention on +6 VA

Poor performances though from 4 of the top  6 predicted sides see that at the wrong end of the stats.  Kazan should have been 3^rd but came 11^th they have the joint lowest VA on -8 and lowest PVA on -0.64. Villareal should have made the playoffs but didn’t they also have -8 VA along with Marseille. Boca made the playoffs but their promotion hopes were blown out by Seville.

3 of the lowest 4 predicted teams finished in the lowest 4

The top 3 in the league are in the top 3 of the stats.

Koln will be celebrating like Rose Monday after they lead the stats and the league with +7 VA , 1^st place and +8 PVA.

Third in the league but 2^nd in the stats are Crystal Palace on +9 VA, CSKA 3^rd place in the stats but 2^nd in the league finished 5 places above expected.  Olympiacos in 4^th spot in the league have +11VA and qualify for the play off spots. Big notable +7 for Fiorentina who looked like relegation fodder but survived well to finish 12^th.

Predicted 1 /2 in the league finish 20^th and 19^th in the stats one of 3 teams on -9 VA.  AZ , Feynenoord and Partizan all fell below their expected finishing positions.

Celta Vigo +14 VA and + 7.5 PVA head the stats and get promoted, just above their Turkish rivals.

It isn’t very often that a +7 VA and auto promotion wouldn’t get you the team of the year in D3 but Fenerbache’s fantastic performance is eclipsed by their Galician rivals.  Celtic third in the stats , also make the play offs with +8VA.  Levante in 4^th spot got promoted as they should have done as leaders. Have to give Beddows some credit for a +7 VA and avoiding relegation with Sampdoria, with Twente the other notable overperformers.

Augsburg on -12VA are heading in the wrong direction , relegated when playoffs were more than achievable, they sit lowest in the stats.  Schalke miss out on playoff and promotion and a -5 VA leaves them 2^nd lowest in the stats. Flamengo maybe the end of an era for the project side as they are relegated. Zagreb , Swansea , Galatasaray must also be disappointed with their seasons. Again I have the feeling that a number of sides feel more able to take risks and clearly rebuilds are in progress.

Super Saints lead the stats. What went wrong for 4 of the top 6 predicted teams?

A great performance for Southampton finishing 9 places above predicted and in 2^nd place giving them a PVA of +5.  Play off bound Sporting are 2^nd in the stats with a VA of +8 and PVA 2.25 , which divisional winners Leverkeusen who did all they could in 3^rd.  Udinese predicted 17^th get into  the playoffs and have the highest VA of +10. Milan on +8 VA and Hertha on +5 frustated at missing the playoff spots but a great season for them overall.

Ajax and Anderlecht had abject seasons both relegated when  they should have been promoted.  Real Madrid 3^rd lowest in the stats but still have the playoffs and could make it to D1.  Liverpool and Man Utd would have liked higher finishes.

A much bigger spread in D2 this year. Probably the lack of contracts meaning rebuilding and increased risk taking.

Super Hellas win the league and no surprise that they head the stats.

Usual disclaimer. VA = value added, the difference between predicted and final position. PVA= positional value added. Finishing higher counts for more. Obviously it is better for a team who should have been 4^th to come 1^st , than a team to come 11^th who should have been 14^th.

Hellas finished 3 places above expected and won the league giving them the highest PVA of +4

Barcelona’s rebuild continues and a PVA of +2.33  2^nd in the stats, with the highest VA and 3^rd spot in the league shows they are on the right track.  Bayern should also be happy with 3^rd place in the stats and 4^th in the league. Villa , Genoa and Valencia were notable overperformers.

Benfica’s poor performance sees them lowest in the stats , despite a 6^th place finish on -4 VA and – 0.5 PVA.  Arsenal finished 8 places lower than expected and just survived the drop. Liege on -6 VA maybe suffered the most and far from finishing 12^th were relegated.

10 clubs finished within 1 place of the expected position and 13 within 3.