The top 3 in the league are in the top 3 of the stats.

Koln will be celebrating like Rose Monday after they lead the stats and the league with +7 VA , 1^st place and +8 PVA.

Third in the league but 2^nd in the stats are Crystal Palace on +9 VA, CSKA 3^rd place in the stats but 2^nd in the league finished 5 places above expected.  Olympiacos in 4^th spot in the league have +11VA and qualify for the play off spots. Big notable +7 for Fiorentina who looked like relegation fodder but survived well to finish 12^th.

Predicted 1 /2 in the league finish 20^th and 19^th in the stats one of 3 teams on -9 VA.  AZ , Feynenoord and Partizan all fell below their expected finishing positions.

Celta Vigo +14 VA and + 7.5 PVA head the stats and get promoted, just above their Turkish rivals.

It isn’t very often that a +7 VA and auto promotion wouldn’t get you the team of the year in D3 but Fenerbache’s fantastic performance is eclipsed by their Galician rivals.  Celtic third in the stats , also make the play offs with +8VA.  Levante in 4^th spot got promoted as they should have done as leaders. Have to give Beddows some credit for a +7 VA and avoiding relegation with Sampdoria, with Twente the other notable overperformers.

Augsburg on -12VA are heading in the wrong direction , relegated when playoffs were more than achievable, they sit lowest in the stats.  Schalke miss out on playoff and promotion and a -5 VA leaves them 2^nd lowest in the stats. Flamengo maybe the end of an era for the project side as they are relegated. Zagreb , Swansea , Galatasaray must also be disappointed with their seasons. Again I have the feeling that a number of sides feel more able to take risks and clearly rebuilds are in progress.

Super Saints lead the stats. What went wrong for 4 of the top 6 predicted teams?

A great performance for Southampton finishing 9 places above predicted and in 2^nd place giving them a PVA of +5.  Play off bound Sporting are 2^nd in the stats with a VA of +8 and PVA 2.25 , which divisional winners Leverkeusen who did all they could in 3^rd.  Udinese predicted 17^th get into  the playoffs and have the highest VA of +10. Milan on +8 VA and Hertha on +5 frustated at missing the playoff spots but a great season for them overall.

Ajax and Anderlecht had abject seasons both relegated when  they should have been promoted.  Real Madrid 3^rd lowest in the stats but still have the playoffs and could make it to D1.  Liverpool and Man Utd would have liked higher finishes.

A much bigger spread in D2 this year. Probably the lack of contracts meaning rebuilding and increased risk taking.

Super Hellas win the league and no surprise that they head the stats.

Usual disclaimer. VA = value added, the difference between predicted and final position. PVA= positional value added. Finishing higher counts for more. Obviously it is better for a team who should have been 4^th to come 1^st , than a team to come 11^th who should have been 14^th.

Hellas finished 3 places above expected and won the league giving them the highest PVA of +4

Barcelona’s rebuild continues and a PVA of +2.33  2^nd in the stats, with the highest VA and 3^rd spot in the league shows they are on the right track.  Bayern should also be happy with 3^rd place in the stats and 4^th in the league. Villa , Genoa and Valencia were notable overperformers.

Benfica’s poor performance sees them lowest in the stats , despite a 6^th place finish on -4 VA and – 0.5 PVA.  Arsenal finished 8 places lower than expected and just survived the drop. Liege on -6 VA maybe suffered the most and far from finishing 12^th were relegated.

10 clubs finished within 1 place of the expected position and 13 within 3.

No transfers completed after Monday 3 April are included.

Close race at the top with 4 teams in with a chance.

Boca go front and back , the strongest keeper and the strongest attack in the league. Should be set for top 3 with that combo.  Stuttgart much more balanced and much more depth , they can challenge almost any team.  Kazan are a similar prospect if a little weaker in defence and midfield. Atalanta the first 87 rated keeper but a potent attacker could allow them to sneak in to auto promotion.

You need 217 to survive D4, so down to Brugge are realistic prospects for promotion.  Villareal will find it hard with an 86 rated keeper. Santos look more balanced, while Brugge are weaker in defence. 

Who could be cup-tastic super fantastic, well  Independiente with that 89 keeper and good depth would be my pick.

Avoid the pit and the pendulum and you will be safe from the sack in the new  / old era of no contractual obligations.

Lazio currently look top prospects for last place , unless they rapidly trade up their youngsters.  Too many goals will be shipped past Newcastle. PSV lack depth but maybe that attack could do it. Chievo , a decent keeper but that is a weak midfield/ defence combo.

As for Sevilla , that will be another post altogether.

Average 216.84 down 0.02 from last season

Can AZ shield their keeper to take the title?

Division 4 is normal full of compromises. A weak keeper, lack of depth a dodgy midfield.

Note any transfers after Monday 3^rd are not included.

AZ are 2 clear points above the rest of the pack. They have a 90 rated striker, just below 90 midfield and a strong defence. So long as the keeper isn’t breached they should do well.  Feyenoord in 2^nd a similar team but with more depth overall who should come good in the 2^nd half of the season.  Sassuolo less potent up top than their rivals but they have a far better keeper and if they can withstand some possession football could be the 3^rd choice for auto promotion.

You have to be above 219 to survive D3,  therefore any team lower than Bordeaux has a lot of improving to do. Lille weak in defence but strong elsewhere, Malaga with a dodgy keeper but strong in the remainder of the team. Bordeaux maybe more balanced but have the weakest midfield of the top 7 teams.

Up for the cup?  Feyenoord look the best prospects.

Anything less than 217.5 leaves you in serious relegation risk.  This means 7 teams have to improve their stats to survive.  Shaktar and Fiorentina look prime suspects to drop back down. Maybe Fiorentina can hide behind or in front of their keeper.  Napoli will be ok unless they get a couple of injuries, if so they will suffer.  Dnipro still a weak defence leaves them vunerable.  St Etienne go for the strong striker , weak defence combo that often is enough for  the weaker teams.

Average = 218.09 , 0.55 lower than last season

Levante the team to beat, who else could challenge?

This must be the season for Levante to push back into the big time. 90+ in all departments and they would probably get automatic promotion from D2.

Schalke and Inter are their nearest opponents. Schalke would seem to be odds on for automatic promotion with only the defence below 90.  Sunderland and Inter maybe a keeper away from the title either will that be enough to get a 2nd or 3^rd place as the stats suggest, they have good depth and the 2^nd half of  the season should be a strong one.  Inter though have a far stronger strike force than Sunderland or Schalke so the battle for 2 - 4 should be tight. Zagreb are more balanced and could initially be a stronger prospect.

Swansea and Augsburg just missed out on the playoffs last season and this year they will be fighting it out with Inter.

218 or less was the problem zone last season.  Roma look most vulnerable lack of depth and weak defence. Sampdoria have a weak keeper but good defence and o,k up front. Twente a little weaker in defence but a better midfield should shield that.

Up for the cup? Twente if they can avoid relegation could throw a few coals on the fire.

The average score is 220.67 which is 0.79 up from last season.

Real Madrid odds on favourites, who will come second?

Perhaps and over simplistic view but as Madrid would be solid mid table in D1 and Leverkesuen 2 whole points away you can’t see around Real Madrid romping back to D1 and even having time to spare to build a stronger team while they do it.

Leverkeusen also though have a strong side . Second place should be relatively easy and they too have a side built for a higher league with no real vulnerabilities.  Everton and Ajax are harder to judge. Everton have a weaker keeper but more depth than Ajax who risking everything if they get injuries.  Liverpool Stoke and Anderlecht strong in midfield but weaker at the back.  To survive D1 you will need 224 so this is kind of the cut off , unless you can improve your team while gaining promotion.

Last season anything less than 221 suggested a struggle.  This puts 5 teams already fighting before the season has begun. Zenit look least well equipped to survive with a week attack and defence combo that will suffer against 90 + rated attacks. Hoffenheim will be good up front but can they out score their opponents.  Same could be said for River Plate but they should get more possession than some . Udinese are more balanced and have good depth , which should do them fine. AC Milan trade depth for a stronger midfield which should be good for at least the first few games.

Cup run teams ? Anderlecht & Udinese

Average for Division 222.65 up 0.4 from last season.

A few notes for the uninitiated.

The ratings for GK,DEF,MID,ATT are the average rating of the likely players in those positions. Top 18 is  the lowest player likely to be in the starting squad.  Average is the average of those. ETOT is based on a secret formula using the relative importance of each position. That created the Pre (predicted ) finishing position.

Perhaps it is no shock to see Chelsea still way ahead of everyone else. They lead in most categories except perhaps defence where they are a little weaker and could be vunerable to any team sporting 92 attack or above if you pick the right formation. Benfica are the nearest challengers, almost a Chelsea clone just a point or so down across the board. Juventus under their new boss sit 3^rd , defensively the most solid team in the league.  Porto have a really strong attack and could beat any team. Dortmund and Bayern are strong in the middle and could challenge any team.

With the lowest 4 at risk of the sack any team less than 223 is likely to be in trouble but such is the strength of D1 this season that even teams on 224 or less will be pulled down if they are not careful. As they stand Espanyol look relegation certainties, Spurs will also struggle.  Valencia may have a good enough attack to survive. Villa will look to shield their keeper usings the defenders and midfield as a screen. Cup run team, surely Bayern Munich who can put out an 89 as their 18^th ranked player or maybe Dortmund who can do the same.

Average ETOT 226.93 down 0.4 from last year.

Two great examples of how to play the game right. Fiorentina should have been 18^th but came 1^st +17 VA and +18 PVA.

Shaktar should have been last +17 VA and +6 PVA.

2^nd spot Olympiacos have +10 VA with Athletic club on +8 VA. Other notable over achievers were Montpellier and Newcastle.

Most abjectly poor performance as -18 VA Lazio, Spartak Moscow were not far behind on -14 VA , along with Lyon.  Villareal and Stuttgart on -10 VA were also behind the curve.