Stoke the top the stats chart but “only “ make the play-offs.

Hellas may feel that they did what they had to but Stoke finishing 4^th and 8 places above where they should have been is a greater achievement statistically. Levante also finishing top half when tipped for relegation with a +10 VA is another stunning achievement.

Notably Sevilla also avoided relegation from D2 7 places above where predicted.

Werder , Southampton and Everton all had poor seasons missing out on the play off spots they should have got with Sassuolo being relegated on the lowest VA.

Barcelona top the table

Porto ,Bayern and Juventus close behind.

Under new management Barcelona who were predicted 2^nd spot, won the league with points to spare. Porto had a great season also in 2^nd spot in PVA.

Man City had the highest VA and their 9^th place was 6 above where predicted.

The worse performing team this year were Genoa a VA of -9 and PVA -0.62, with Chelsea and Real not far behind.

Three of the lowest four ranked teams were relegated with only Leverkeusen escaping .

A compact division 5 with a few exceptions.

Spartak hold the narrowest of leads over Olympiacos, though long term their additional depth should see them through. Sao Paulo in a state of flux but with just the midfield to sort out to balance up the team.  Sunderland in a similar boat but with a defence to service.

Then there is a gap to Boca, Athletic club and Montpellier who are all closely matched, although Boca get the award for best attack in the league.  As the bar for entry to D4 is sat at around 217.5 this should mean half the league have a chance of promotion directly or via the play off spot.

With only the sack race to fear, which sits around 215.5 , Malaga, AZ and St Ettiene will fancy their chances to stay above the slowly improving Independiente. Overall a slightly stronger division than last season largely due to Independiente’s improvement.  Although if you ignore them the score is exactly the same.

Top 3 out of sight? Play-offs for the rest ?

There are 3 clear favourites for the top 3 spots. Partizan have a great midfield and attack and they have the lead in the stats, closely followed by Dynamo Moscow who are a more defensive set up.   FC Augsburg have an attack to fear but are more vunerable at the back than the other two.  As a whole the league is slightly weaker but the challenge at the top is much as last season.  Looks like around 218 is needed to survive D3 so a whole host of teams could get promoted and do well the following season.

Villareal look a strong prospect with plenty of depth, Feyenoord look like they could mount a strong challenge.  While last season was a little odd , around 217.5 would leave you in relegation risk. Lokomotiv have too weak a defence and little depth, they could struggle.  Celta need to sort themselves a keeper rapido. Atalanta and Cruziero have a decent enough attack but remain vunerable at the back.

Tight at the top is Division 3 the place to be?

No real out and out favourite in the cross road division of Top 100.  Zagreb lead the pack strong attack but a little weaker in defence than some. They are closely followed by Villa who have a better keeper and midfield.  Flamengo , WBA and Man Utd could be covered by a tea towel all are strong in midfield and attack an ongoing theme amongst D3 contenders.

The 90 + Attack runs out past 6^th spot. You would need 219.75 to survive in D2 so teams down to River Plate could push for promotion without compromising their current set up.

Looking at the lower end  last year less than 218.00 meant relegation this leaves Chievo. Basel , Celtic , Dnipro could be in danger. . Celtic and Dnipro in particular are in danger of shipping too many goals.  Basel may be o.k. but lack the strength in depth if they get in trouble.    In general terms.   The division is 0.3 per team higher than last season. The top end is a little weaker but there are more teams closer to those playoff spots.

Two teams are predicted a rapid return to D1

Benfica and Hellas are ranked as highly as PSG from last season and should dominate this season.

Benfica are a more solid outfit and have strength in depth beyond that of Hellas who are more attack minded.

Liege , Everton and Southampton fill the next 3 spots all with o.k. keepers and defence, they are going for possession football to shield the back line.  Spurs and Bremen may lack the firepower to go for promotion this year.

224.7 is the cut off to survive D1 so all but the top 2 have a lot of improving to do.

As for the cup Bremen have the capabilities to compete for league or cup.

At the wrong end last year 219.61 was relegation , 219.4 the previous year, so it is getting tougher to survive D2 as well.

Therfore Lazio, Kiev , Levante and Sevilla are all in trouble, all have decent keepers but a weak defence to exploit.  Kiev may have the fire power options to escape though which could leave Hamburg or Newcastle looking over their shoulders.

Blue is the colour again?

Few reminders.

Gk, Att, Mid, Def is  the average rating as I see it.

Top 18 is the rating of the 18^th player. This does not include 2^nd or 3^rd choice keepers and there is human input if this player is a lot lower than  the squad average.

Ave = Average of the above.

ETOT uses a secret formula to weight all the previous to come up with a team ranking , this was based on  the first 3 or 4 seasons looking at how much each position matched up with finishing positions.

Pre = Predicted position.

Chelsea are clear of the pack they have pretty much the best defence and midfield but can be challenged up top. Barcelona and Juve sit 2^nd and 3^rd.  Barca are stronger up top where as Juve go for  the more balanced approach.

Genoa now rank 4^th and should maintain that position .

Espanyol did so well last year but maybe strength in depth will be an issue this season.  Hertha if they could find a better keeper could aim higher.

225.15 got relegated last year, 224.35 the previous and 222.26 the year before...  Life is getting tougher in D1 as the best improve at the expense of the rest.

Leverkeusen, AC Milan and Valencia are detached from the pack and look like clear relegation fodder. Roma look doomed already and would struggle in the division below.  Having said that Man City and PSG fall below the cut off meaning we could have 6 teams fighting it out for relegation.

Dutch courage as Feyenoord lead the table and the stats.

Play offs always in sight , the Dutch team pushed higher than expected with automatic promotion. Cruziero in 2^nd had the 3rd highest VA on +10 with the Hammers leading the VA on +11. Az a notable +9.

Olympiacos , Spartak and Boca , all should have been top 4 but all fell to lowest 4 in the stats. Partizan I suspect will take promotion but with a low stats position. 3 out of 4 of the lowest ranked finished there.

Run away leaders are not top of the stats.

You could argue that Zagreb were a cut above the rest and a mighty +3 PVA put them in 2^nd spot behind River Plate

Atalanta a great performance in 12th place gave them +5 VA

Augsburg came last in the PVA, missing out on the play offs when they should have got there.  ( perhaps no fault of the highly talented manager LOL ) .  Villareal had the lowest VA on -7 VA . 3 of the lowest 5 ranked were relegated.

+13 VA lucky for some especially Dynamo Kiev

A fantastic performance by the Ukranian side saw them advance from mid table prediction to the heights of D3.  Highest VA and PVA +12 /+13 respectively.

Stoke in 2^nd were the 2^nd in the stats as well as form was thrown away at the top end of the table.  Great performances from Dnipro on +8 VA in 9^th and Sporting in 8^th,

Worst  performing teams was Werder Bremen who still made the playoffs just but –0.71 VA and Man Utd who were well off pace.  Lille had the lowest VA –12 and were relegated to boot. Never the less 3 out of 4 teams predicted to be relegated were.