The World has gone mad ! , no not what you are thinking Division 4 is almost as highly rated than Division 3 really!

While only marginally so, the average Division 3 club is only slightly higher rated than the average Division 4 team. 

If we take the average survival rating in D3 as around 86.5 this would lead to virtually the whole of D4 being eligible for promotion.  So what has happened?

Well the simplest and perhaps crudest answer is the bulge factor in D3. There are 2 seasons worth of teams on the slide and 2 seasons worth of teams from divisions below which is half the league in  that division. In addition as stated last time, d3 managers seem to be willing to sacrifice more , while D4 managers maybe are playing the long game. 

In addition one has to look at why Dnipro  one of the potential best team in D4 are 15th and Cologne the potential worse team top.  You can draw your own conclusions from that.

D4 also suffers from  the recycle factor of D5 , ie teams can't exit D5 so teams will get relegated and promoted too and from ,probably the better teams , so the overall rating may be less variable.

Anyway enough conjecture what do the stats say. Torino should take a top 3 spot with little problem once they get their act together, the best attack and keeper should be a unbeatable combination. Chievo should snatch another spot and then  there are then a whole bunch of almost identical teams ,  From Dnipro - Lille ., not even 1/6 of a rating point between them , with deep squads.  This will tend to mean the better managers should progress .  There is no big tail to this group and realistically , down to Dynamo Moscow could get a play off spot. 

It would be cruel to call any team relegation favourites, as probably favourites Cologne are top. They can't keep it together with such a small squad , can they ?

Well lets see.

	Gk	Def	Mid	Att	Top15	Top21	Average
Torino	89	89	88	90	87	85	88.00
Chievo Verona	88	88	88	89	87	86	87.67
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	88	87	88	88	87	86	87.33
West Ham United	88	88	88	88	87	85	87.33
Stuttgart	88	87	88	88	87	86	87.33
Hamburg	88	87	88	89	86	85	87.17
AZ	89	87	88	88	86	85	87.17
Villarreal CF	88	89	88	87	86	85	87.17
Lille OSC	89	87	88	88	86	85	87.17
Sampdoria	88	88	87	88	86	85	87.00
Montpellier HSC	87	87	88	88	86	85	86.83
Hellas Verona	87	87	87	88	86	86	86.83
Málaga CF	87	87	88	86	86	85	86.50
Atalanta BC	88	87	88	88	86	82	86.50
Dynamo Moskva	87	87	87	87	86	85	86.50
River Plate	88	87	88	87	85	83	86.33
Sassuolo	88	87	87	88	85	83	86.33
São Paulo FC	87	87	88	87	85	83	86.17
Feyenoord	88	86	87	87	84	84	86.00
Cologne	88	87	88	88	84	79	85.67

 

 

Stuck in the middle with you !

The league where there has to be a price to pay.

 Almost half of the managers in Division 3 have decided to sacrifice depth of squad for a strong starting team.

You would expect those managers to have made a good start and to a large extent they have.
However as the season progresses 1 or 2 injuries, rating changes or suspensions will start to hit home meaning blips along the road.

Monaco and Marseille have the strongest overall squads if not the best starting teams, they haven't had the greatest starts but are still within distance of the top contenders.  Bilbao , Besitkas and current leaders Aston Villa also have strong balanced teams with a good depth to the squad. Ready reckoning suggest you need an average rating of 87 to gain promotion. This gives over half the teams a fighting chance.  Of the teams who don't have a great deal of depth Genoa or Stoke look best placed to gain an automatic spot if all goes well.

Then we have the enigma of Leicester. Never has it been so easy to sit on a team of players and wait for them to rise. They will do as well as their team does in real life at the start of the next premier league season , they could well gain automatic promotion or quickly fall by the wayside. 
Of the relegation candidates there is little to choose between them , although Bordeaux have the better keeper , which could be crucial. 

Division 3 soon becomes a division to pass through on the way up or down and naturally has the biggest through put of teams. What has occured already is that with 6 better teams coming down from above and 6 improving teams coming up from below there are a dozen or so teams more than able to fight out for the elusive promotion spot, this makes it increasingly tough for the lesser lights to pick up the scraps and avoid relegation.

	Gk	Def	Mid	Att	Top15	Top21	Average
AS Monaco	88	89	89	90	87	86	88.17
Olympique Marseille	91	88	89	89	86	85	88.00
Athletic Club	90	88	88	88	87	86	87.83
Besiktas JK	88	87	88	89	87	87	87.67
Aston Villa	88	88	87	88	87	86	87.33
Genoa CFC	89	88	89	90	86	82	87.33
Stoke City	89	88	88	89	87	82	87.17
Hoffenheim	88	87	87	88	86	86	87.00
AS Saint-Etienne	89	87	88	87	86	85	87.00
SC Internacional	88	87	88	88	86	85	87.00
Swansea City	88	87	88	89	86	83	86.83
Udinese Calcio	87	87	87	88	87	85	86.83
Sunderland	87	87	87	87	86	86	86.67
Leicester City	89	88	88	90	84	80	86.50
PSV	87	88	87	88	85	84	86.50
Southampton	89	89	87	89	85	80	86.50
Cruzeiro	87	87	87	87	86	85	86.50
Crystal Palace	87	87	88	87	85	82	86.00
Girondins Bordeaux	88	87	88	88	85	80	86.00
Galatasaray SK	87	88	88	88	84	80	85.83

Division 2 the edge of greatness or a fall into darkness.

Four defensive teams lead the pack.

If you take 90 as the gold standard there is one team a cut above the rest which is clearly Tottenham who should easily gain promotion. They should fear no team and with strength in depth should put a good cup campaign together.  Roma should also push them hard but lack a little in depth ,which deep in the season will count against them.  After the obvious 2 favourites a pack of others have little to split them.  Zenit or Everton should fancy the 3rd spot. 

Ajax and CSKA may well finish higher than predicted if they can keep a full team out most games.

However to secure promotion and your place in D1 you really need to top 89 as your average here which means the rest really have some building to do if they are to go up and stay up.

Spartak are off to a flying start but with a weak keeper that won't last .  Of the relegation favourites  Lokomotiv have the strength in depth to avoid the drop where as Benfica look well adrift of the rest. 

	GK	Def	Mid	Att	Top15	Top21	Ave
Tottenham Hotspur	92	90	92	90	88	87	89.83
AS Roma	90	89	92	91	88	84	89.00
Monchengladbach	90	89	90	91	87	86	88.83
Internazionale	91	90	89	90	87	86	88.83
Zenit	90	89	89	89	88	87	88.67
AC Milan	89	89	90	90	88	85	88.50
Everton	90	90	90	89	87	85	88.50
Sevilla	88	89	89	90	88	86	88.33
Ajax	91	89	89	89	87	84	88.17
CSKA Moskva	90	88	89	89	87	85	88.00
Shakhtar Donetsk	89	89	90	89	87	83	87.83
Olympique Lyonnais	88	89	88	88	87	86	87.67
Boca Juniors	88	87	89	88	86	86	87.33
Wolfsburg	89	87	89	89	87	83	87.33
Spartak Moskva	86	88	88	88	87	86	87.17
Newcastle United	88	87	89	89	86	84	87.17
Sporting CP	88	87	88	88	86	84	86.83
FC Basel	87	87	87	89	86	85	86.83
Lokomotiv Moskva	87	88	88	89	87	82	86.83
SL Benfica	88	87	88	89	85	83	86.67

 

The true state of Division 1 in the Top 100.

 Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern top the list once again.


 The top 3 suggests a similar result to last season  Barcelona perhaps lack a little strength in depth , with Real performing better in that respect Bayern have a more of a problem with a weaker if improving keeper.
Juventus down to Chelsea should be able to field a team of 90+ players most weeks, have Chelsea decided to go for broke this season , the stats suggest so, short term gain could mean long term pain.   In the lower reaches the teams tend to become less balanced favouring an attacking or defensive approach.  Of the relegation contenders. Dortmund should start well but the fade.  Leverkeusen have a good keeper if they wish to play the defensive game.  Fiorentina look set for the chop, but the manager has built a deeper team this season and it will be interesting to see how that works for him.

	Gk	Def	Mid	Att	Top15	Top21
Barcelona	96	93	94	97	88	85	92.17
Bayern	89	93	94	98	93	84	91.83
Real Madrid	92	93	94	94	90	87	91.67
Juventus	94	92	92	92	89	88	91.17
Arsenal	92	92	91	92	89	88	90.67
Manchester United	94	90	92	92	89	85	90.33
Paris Saint-Germain	90	91	92	94	89	85	90.17
SSC Napoli	90	90	92	92	89	87	90
Manchester City	91	90	91	93	88	87	90
Liverpool	90	90	92	91	88	86	89.5
Chelsea	93	90	91	94	87	82	89.5
SS Lazio	89	89	90	93	88	87	89.33
Fenerbahçe SK	89	89	90	91	88	88	89.17
Valencia CF	90	90	91	90	89	85	89.17
FC Porto	91	89	90	91	88	86	89.17
Atlético Madrid	91	90	89	90	88	87	89.17
Dortmund	89	91	92	92	87	82	88.83
Leverkusen	90	89	91	90	87	85	88.67
Schalke	89	90	90	91	88	83	88.5
ACF FIORENTINA	88	89	88	90	87	86	88

 

At the start of the season all clubs were rated according to the average of the main positions NOT cash value.

Then the predicted finishing position was calculated, with some minor human input to avoid skewing , i.e. a one of anomaly which affected the overall good / bad rating of a team ( this was only used in 3 or 4 teams )

So taking my own team Fiorentina were the 17th rated team. I finished 11th so I added 6 places in value.


AC Milan were 13th rated , they finished 18th so they get - 5.

Now I know that the highest rated team can never add any value or the lowest rated lose any. In addition it could well be better for a 6th place team to finish 2nd than a 19th rated team to finish 15th.

Not surprisingly the biggest variation came with lowest divisions.

Hope this helps

Division 5

		VA
Hetha Berlin	1	-3.00
Sao Paulo	16	-3.00
Stuttgart	13	0.00
Villlareal	5	4.00
Dynamo Kiev	18	-9.00
Olympiacos	4	-3.00
Flamengo	3	-8.00
Club Bruge	11	-3.00
Anderlecht	19	1.00
Feyenord	7	8.00
Santos	9	5.00
Dinamo Zagreb	15	-4.00
Celtic	8	6.00
Bremen	12	-5.00
Standard Liege	2	3.00
Rubin Kazan	14	3.00
Augsburg	6	-3.00
Partizan	10	1.00
Independiente	17	9.00
FC Twente	20	-2.00

Pre	Acc	VA
Southamoton	1	1	0
West Ham	2	12	-10
Dynamo Moscow	3	10	-7
Genoa	4	2	2
Malaga	5	4	-1
Torino	6	5	1
Udinese	7	7	0
Montpellier	8	15	-7
Celta Vigo	9	18	-9
West Brom	10	19	-9
AZ	11	9	2
Dnipro	12	13	1
Atalanta	13	6	7
River Plate	14	11	3
Sc Internacional	15	3	12
Cologne	16	8	8
Espanyol	17	17	0
Chievo	18	14	4
Levante	19	20	1
Hellas Verona	20	16	4

Best performance in D4 was SC Internacional by a country mile,  credit must also goto Atalanta for a great 6th spot.

The big let downs West Broms and Ham and Celta Vigo

Division 3 

 

Much bigger swings in D3. Some massive fails by Hamburg and Lille who should have been top half or even promotion candidates. Great performances by PSV, Bordeaux and Basel who must be a favourite for manager of the year.

 

										VA
Pre Acc VA Monaco 1 14 -13 Ajax 2 1 1 Shaktar 3 7 -4 Marseille 4 5 -1 Hamburg 5 17 -12 Lille 6 18 -12 Aston Villla 7 4 -3 CSKA 8 2 6 Swansea 9 9 0 Besitkas 10 11 -1 Sampdoria 11 20 -9 Leiscester 12 6 6 Sassuolo 13 19 -6 Stoke 14 12 2 Cruziero 15 13 2 Hoffenheim 16 16 0 Crystal Palace 17 15 2 Basel 18 3 15 PSV 19 8 11 Bordeaux 20 10 10

Division 2 

 

Galatasaray are the big losers, with Everton and Spartak defying the odds

Pre Acc VA Dortmund 1 1 0 PSG 2 4 -2 Napoli 3 2 1 Schalke 4 3 -1 Tottenham 5 10 -5 AS Roma 6 7 1 Wolfsburg 7 5 2 Zenit 8 13 -5 Galatasaray 9 19 -10 Borussia Moenchengladbach 10 11 -1 Newcastle 11 9 2 Everton 12 6 6 Sporting 13 16 -3 Spartak 14 8 6 Athletic Bilbao 15 20 -5 Lokomtiv Moscow 16 12 4 Sunderland 17 18 -1 Boca Juniors 18 15 3 Benfica 19 14 -5 St Etienne 20 17 3

Division 1

 

So the best 3 managers in D1 are Porto , Fenerbache and Fiorentina

The worse 3 AC Milan , Inter and Liverpool

Full Pos Value added Barcelona 1 1 0 Bayern 2 2 0 Real Madrid 3 3 0 Atletico 4 9 5 Juventus 5 4 1 Chelsea 6 7 -1 Man Utd 7 6 -1 Arsenal 8 8 0 Man City 9 12 -3 Inter 10 17 -7 Lazio 11 14 -3 Porto 12 5 7 AC Milan 13 18 -5 Liverpool 14 16 -2 Leverkusen 15 15 0 Valencia 16 13 3 Fiorentina 17 11 6 Fenerbarche 18 10 8 Lyon 19 19 0 Sevilla 20 20 0

Division 5 the only way is up.

 

In open gameworlds Division 5 is the hardest to escape from. Only 1 side gets auto promotion and the playoffs are even worse of a lottery than normal. However in the TOP 100 very sensibly there are 4 places up for grabs. The only thing to fear is the sack race at the end of the season.

	Gk	Def	Mid	Att	Top15	Top21	Ave
Hetha Berlin	89	88	88	90	86	75	88.2	1
Sao Paulo	89	88	88	88	87	87	87.833	16
Stuttgart	89	87	88	88	87	85	87.333	13
Villlareal	88	88	88	87	86	86	87.167	5
Dynamo Kiev	87	88	89	88	87	84	87.167	18
Olympiacos	88	87	87	87	86	85	86.667	4
Flamengo	87	87	87	87	85	85	86.333	3
Club Bruge	87	86	87	87	86	85	86.333	11
Anderlecht	88	87	87	87	86	83	86.333	19
Feyenord	88	86	87	87	86	83	86.167	7
Santos	87	87	88	87	86	82	86.167	9
Dinamo Zagreb	89	87	87	86	85	82	86	15
Celtic	87	87	86	86	85	83	85.667	8
Bremen	85	86	87	87	85	82	85.333	12
Standard Liege	87	85	85	85	84	82	84.667	2
Rubin Kazan	87	85	86	87	82	81	84.667	14
Augsburg	88	85	86	84	83	80	84.333	6
Partizan	85	86	87	88	83	75	84	10
Independiente	85	85	85	86	83	80	84	17
FC Twente	85	84	85	85	82	80	83.5	20

The average for this league is 85.9 compared to 86.4 for D4. Quite a gap consdiering D4 is close to D3 in ability terms. Anything above 85.5 should be enough to survive in the league above , so any team down to Dinamo Zagreb should have promotion ambitions. The current leaders Hertha Berlin are a cut above their opponents.   Strong in all positions, and a lethal strike force. True depth has been sacrificed and a real injury crisis is their only fear.  Sao Paulo who got off to a poor start are on paper the firm second favourites, no real weakness in strength or depth , one can only see them move up,

Villareal and Dynamo Kiev should see out the remaining automatic spots between them , similar sides, Kiev will look to maintain possession.  Then there is a huge clutch of almost identikit teams mid to high 86 rated , down to Celtic on the table above. Stand out sides could be Dinamo Zagreb if the keeper is on form and Santos if they keep more possesion to deny others chances.

There is then some what of a decrease in quality , all the sides have some major weak point which will hamper their progress.  Breman, Partizan, Indepndiente , FC Twente, is a 86 keeper that hard to find ?  Augburg not potent up top but may well finish top half on the strength of the keeper. 

FC Twente are the worse team by far and hold up the league.

Good luck to all..

 

 

Division 3 the tale of the tape.

How does Division 3 match up to the 2 top flight positions.

 Division 3 easy up , easy down, most peoples perception of this league.  High risk , high gain.

 

	GK	def	mid	att	top 15	top 21
Monaco	88	89	89	90	87	85	88
Ajax	91	90	89	89	86	83	88
Shaktar	88	90	88	90	87	85	88
Marseille	91	87	90	88	86	84	87.66667
Hamburg	88	88	88	88	87	85	87.33333
Lille	89	87	88	89	85	85	87.16667
Aston Villla	87	87	88	88	86	86	87
CSKA	89	89	89	89	84	82	87
Swansea	88	87	88	89	86	84	87
Besitkas	87	87	87	87	86	85	86.5
Sampdoria	88	88	88	89	84	82	86.5
Leiscester	87	87	88	89	85	82	86.33333
Sassuolo	88	87	87	88	85	82	86.16667
Stoke	88	88	87	89	85	80	86.16667
Cruziero	87	86	87	89	85	82	86
Hoffenheim	88	87	87	87	85	82	86
Crystal Palace	86	87	86	87	85	84	85.83333
Basel	86	87	87	87	86	82	85.83333
PSV	87	87	88	87	85	80	85.66667
Bordeaux	88	87	88	86	85	80	85.66667

The average rating is 86.7 , compared to 89.7 in Division 1 and 88.15 in Division 2, so we kind of drop 1.7/ 1.8 rating points per division.  Using the same theory as last time you probably need around a rating of 87 to survive in division 2 , which would mean a much smaller field of possible promotees from Swansea up .

There is also much less depth , almost all teams lack a full strength squad but all at least have at least 1 capable sub in all positions. 

It is easy to see that Monaco, Ajax , Shaktar and Marseille all have that bit extra to challenge for the top spot. Ajax may well be able to put out the most convincing first team and with a capable keeper could be joint favourites with Marseille.

The following 5 teams as previously mentioned could well challenge for automatic promotion or a playoff spot.. CSKA are the most potent but perhaps lack enough to challenge all season , so an early good start is essential. Lille also have a good top and tail meaning they will always threaten.

From Besitkas down to Hoffenheim is there a surprise lurking in the murky depths. Well Sampdoria are a kind of inferior version of CSKA, so again an early start for them is vital. 
 As for the relegation candidates you could argue that it is more the lack of players outside the regular starters that will cost them, therefore they may get off to a good start but fade as time goes by, the only exception being Basel who ironically have the depth but no strength.

Division 2 stats and figures.

After a tiring night with her abacus,  Professor Algie Bra turned her attention to Division 2.

 

GK def mid Att top15 top21 average Dortmund 89 91 93 90 90 88 90.17 PSG 91 91 92 95 87 84 90.00 Napoli 90 90 91 92 88 87 89.67 Schalke 88 91 90 92 88 87 89.33 Tottenham 92 90 91 89 87 86 89.17 AS Roma 89 92 91 91 88 84 89.17 Wolfsburg 89 90 91 90 88 85 88.83 Zenit 88 90 88 89 88 87 88.33 Galatasaray 90 88 90 90 87 85 88.33 Borussia Moenchengladbach 90 89 90 89 87 83 88.00 Newcastle 89 88 89 88 87 86 87.83 Everton 90 88 89 88 87 85 87.83 Sporting 90 87 89 88 86 85 87.50 Spartak 86 88 89 88 87 86 87.33 Athletic Bilbao 86 88 89 90 86 84 87.17 Lokomtiv Moscow 87 89 88 89 87 83 87.17 Sunderland 87 87 88 89 86 85 87.00 Boca Juniors 87 87 87 88 86 86 86.83 Benfica 88 87 88 89 85 83 86.67 St Etienne 89 88 88 88 85 82 86.67
Again there is no managerial bias. Lokomtiv Moscow have an unusually small squad so the top 21 figure has been increased to stop it skewing the mean. Firstly it is worth noting that Division 2 has an overall average of 88.23 compared to Division 1 of 89.7. Less difference than one might think.  To survive in division 1 , you are likely to need a rating above 88, this in reality rules out all teams below Borussia M  for promotion, as things stand. The 2 star sides are Dortmund and PSG. PSG have an attack better than any defence , whereas Dortmund should have more possesion than any other team in the league. PSG perhaps lack depth but should still gain automatic promotion. There is then a group of closely matched teams, often the way in division 2 , all of whom could win the league, get automatic promotion or a playoff spot.  Napoli and Schalke use a potent attack. Tottenham will be tough at the back, with Roma being a good all round team.. Roma have good depth but poor deep strength which is an interesting condundrum for their boss. Hanging on their coat tales, the remaining playoff contenders, Wolfsburg, Zenit ,  Galatasaray, Borussia M.  Wolfsburg and Zenit are defensively strong, probably a good idea against the stronger attacking opponents already mentioned Then we have the twilight zone teams, not good enough for promotion, but too good for releagation. Mostly they lack the depth of a division 1 squad, while still having quality. One or two of these squads could well challenge early on but will drop back as the season progresses.  Athletic Bilbao could well be that team.  There do seem to be 3 firm favourites for relegation with Sunderland just sitting above them.  Boca do have depth and they would be my favourites to surprise.  St Etienne and Benfica will struggle all season and it is doubtful that they will have the where with all to drag themselves out of a relegation scrap.

Stats and Figures.

Dispelling the myths of Division 1.

 

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top15	Top21	Average
Barcelona	96	93	94	97	90	85	92.5
Bayern	90	92	94	97	90	87	91.667
Real Madrid	92	93	94	96	88	85	91.333
Atletico	90	91	91	90	88	87	91.167
Juventus	94	92	93	91	89	87	91
Chelsea	93	92	92	93	88	87	90.833
Man Utd	93	90	92	92	90	88	90.833
Arsenal	92	90	92	93	88	87	90.333
Man City	91	90	91	93	89	86	90
Inter	91	90	90	91	88	87	89.5
Lazio	90	89	91	90	89	87	89.333
Porto	92	89	89	91	87	86	89
AC Milan	89	89	90	91	88	86	88.833
Liverpool	88	90	90	90	88	86	88.667
Leverkusen	90	88	90	90	87	86	88.5
Valencia	90	89	90	90	86	85	88.333
Fiorentina	89	89	89	90	87	85	88.167
Fenerbarche	89	88	89	91	87	85	88.167
Lyon	89	88	89	89	87	87	88.167
Sevilla	89	89	90	90	87	82	87.833

Professor Algie Bra of the University of Brest ( PhDD) analyses the facts and figures of each team in division 1.

I have looked at the best players in each of the key positions, and averaged their rating. Where a player could start in more than one position I have made a common sense judgement of where they are likely to play.  Top 15 is the average of the best 15 excluding multiple keepers ,with the same for Top 21.

 As you can see on all counts Barcelona,  Bayern and Real Madrid , should be the dominant teams in the division.  It should therefore be seen as an abject failure if they finish outside the top 5.

Atletico , Juventus, Chelsea and Man Utd all have a squad capable of winning the league. I would expect Juventus and Chelsea to challenge earlier in the season with Atletico and Man Utd challenging more as the season progresses.

 Arsenal , Man City and Inter are the 3 remaining teams without an obvious chink in the armour needed in the top flight. They can put out a solid 90 rated team week in week out.  What they lack though is the stength in depth throughout the squad to guarantee a top 5 finish. However don't be surprised if one of these teams challenges for the top spot, but likewise if injuries are cruel they could struggle to avoid the chop.

 Lazio are somewhat of an anomaly, a weaker overall side but a great depth to the squad. Could they be the surprise package this year?

Porto, Milan,  Liverpool, Leverkeusen and Valencia don't really have that star player or 2 needed to challenge. They should however be confident of surviving in the top flight.  Valenica , Leverkeusen and Porto though will not want to get into an early season scrap for relegation as they simply do not have the reserves needed to fight off the teams beneath them.

Fiorentina, Fenerbache and Lyon will be fighting for survival all season, Lyon have depth but lack quality,  Fenerbache and Fiorentina will be looking at their front line to score more than their defensive line let in.

Seville look like firm favourites to go down.