Barcelona and Chelsea top the table.

First of all the explanations.

This is purely statistical and takes no account of squad building or managerial ability.

How it works: I look at the likely picks for the first eleven and take an average of the ability in Gk, Def, Mid , Att and the Top 18^th player ( unlikely you will need to go down any further )

Then using a formula developed in the first few seasons on the relevant importance of key positions. I calculate the ETOT the estimated total strength of the team.

There is some human input if you lack say 2 decent forwards in the first eleven or your 18^th players was 5 ratings below anyone else.

It is really tight between Barcelona ,depth vs Chelsea strength.  A few injuries would push it the way of Barcelona with Juventus a kind of halfway house between the two teams.

There is then a huge gap down to Porto a defensive based team and Arsenal and attacking force who could still trouble the top 3.

Real and Bayern are the next nearest challengers with Hellas perhaps a keeper away from a great squad.

Relegation cut of is around 225.5 there are therefore 7 teams realistically who could face the drop this season.  Maybe as said last season it is difficult to see Stoke surviving this season unless they pick up the scraps from the other lower ranked teams.  Milan also sit well beneath the comfort zone and will struggle.  Espanyol should survive if they avoid injuries, Hertha likewise.  This leaves Internacional , Bremen and Levante fighting it out for the last survival spot.

Interestingly D1 is half a point weaker than last season perhaps as a result of the unusually strong teams who were relegated..

Cruziero top of the league and top of the stats.

No one could doubt that a league winner with +5 VA should lead the stats, Sau Paulo the 2^nd place team in real life only figure 8^th in the stats despite a great season.

Montpellier are 2^nd in the stats they made the play offs beyond expectations. Independiente had the highest VA on +7 with Torino on +6.. Shaktar and St Etienne also over performed and should have a notable mention

Spartak have the lowest VA and PVA, should have been 3^rd but really never got started. Twente on -7 also were disappointing..

The 3rd 2nd 1st are 1st 2nd 3rd in the stats.

A great season by Fenerbache give them the highest VA in D4 at +11 and PVA at +4 and a promotion spot.  Celtic on the basis of finishing 3 positions above expected are second in the stats with leaders Wolfsburg in 3^rd. Sampdoria in 4^th are on +5 VA with a whole series of overperfomers on +7

Bruge,  Moscow and West ham all pushed away from danger and in some cases into the play offs and a notable mention to PSV.

This obviously means that there will be an equal number of underperformers.

CSKA should have been top but struggled to get in the playoffs. They have -5 VA and -0.67 PVA. Fiorentina and Koln have the worst VA on -8. Leicester, Dynamo Moscow, Villareal and Marseille also slipped well below expectations.

Dnipro +15 VA and +8 PVA fantastic achievement.

Relegation prospects to 2^nd spot , hard to beat really in terms of achievement and a great year by Dnipro.  Augsburg were much the most consistent team of the year and they needed to turn over their last 4 opponents to even win the title by 3 points. They finish 2^nd in the stats. Only Feyenoord and Sassuolo can get to +3VA but Sassuolo will be much happier with the play off spot.

Biggest under performance this year is probably a tie between Sporting on -5 VA and -0.67 VA, no wins in 8 games at one point probably cost them the title mid season. Zagreb also should have been playoff but finished 12^th . WBA also had -5VA as they slipped out the playoff spots.

3 of the 4 predicted relegation teams were relegated and they must look to rebuild next season.

A.C.Milan to of the stats , just above Bremen due to higher VA.

A very rare PVA tie was separated by the superior +7 VA of A.C. Milan as the top 2 teams in the table were also top of the stats. Perhaps the stats were skewed by the Internacional affair as they could have finished top but enough said about that the better.

Schalke had the best VA of + 8 and avoided relegation and were 4^th in the PVA stats table just below Ajax who are playoff bound. Also a nod to Villa who are steadily moving up the division and had a VA of +4

Spurs on -9 VA and -0.53 PVA were a big disappointment,  Santos avoided relegation by goal difference on -5 VA. Southampton the 3^rd lowest stats ranked team with -4 VA and – 0.43 PVA will look to ignore that and challenge for promotion from the play offs.

Hertha are the kind of the stats with a PVA of +2 , just over taking the champs Barcelona.

Few notes I calculate the stats leaders on PVA , positional value added.

Value added is simply how much above or below a team finishes statistically from its predicted ( pre ) position.

Positional value added takes into account how high up the table you finish. Otherwise Barcelona for example would have a value added of 0 or less most seasons. Thus success is important.

Hertha had a great season finishing 9 places above their predicted position, their VA of +9 is just above that of Stoke who were clear relegation material but finished a more the creditable 12^th, they finished third in the stats just above Juventus who had a much better season this year.

Real Madrid and Genoa rightly are at the lower end of the stats. Real had a PVA of -0.43 and Genoa – 0.33 both with a value added of -7 showing that they finished 7 place below their expected position, with Atletico just above them .  Lowest side Anderlecht had an up hill battle all season . Credit though to Stoke and Man City for avoiding the drop.

Swansea and Sao Paulo lead the pack.

Swansea are a power house team in D4 and should romp home at least to promotion.  Sao Paulo likewise while a point lower are 1 rating point ahead of the rest.  Spartak the only other team 219 plus are strong in midfield and attack but weaker at the back.

Seven teams then sit at 218 plus and we should consider these the play off contenders.  Cruziero are the pick of the bunch , no depth but high strength, a risky strategy that could pay off.

Boca are an interesting team, very weak in defence but strong in goal and up front.

If you need 217 to survive D4 then Atheltic Club and Lyon can also buy a ticket for the raffle.

Shaktar are much the weakest team, AZ lack depth but are well balanced and could finish much higher than 4^th from last.

CSKA or Wolfsburg for the title Lille and Besitkas for the 3rd spot?

While having no position solid above 90 CSKA still just lead the stats over Wolfsburg who are stronger in defence and midfield but weaker in attack. Lille go for the classic strong keeper / striker combo that works so well in the lower divisions. Besitkas look to get a good chunk of possesion

Beyond that a whole bunch of teams down to Cologne could feature in the playoffs. Since you really need to be 2018+ to surive in D3 that would seem to be the limit for any kind of promotion ambitions.

Teams that stick out in the play off crew are Leicester and Fenerbache with great keeper/midfield and keeper / attack combos respectively . The depth of Sampdoria, Villareal and Leicester could help them in the long term. Behind Besitkas I would see Leicester as a solid play off possibility.

Any team on 216 or less will have relegation concerns. The five teams do seem to be detached from the rest by some margin. Brugge have a clear problem in defence but are strong in attack. Lokomotiv, West Ham, PSV and Atalanta don't really have that option but West Ham and Atalanta do at least have depth to make a late season surge

Four teams battle out for 3 places all of whom can hit 90 plus in attack.

It always remains a good gamble that with weakening keeper / defence combo that a decent attack will unlock a win for your team.  Sporting perhaps have the best defence / attack balance which they gain while losing some depth.  Flamengo a great project side are a near match to them.  Augsburg weaker in defence but the most potent attacking option make up the top 3.

West Brom sit a little detached but in reality they are a fairly similar line up to the top 2.

Zagreb have a decent midfield and should get to the play off spots at least and Sassuolo’s 91 rated keeper Gulacsi could throw a spanner in the works of those attack minded teams.

To survive D2 you need around 220 so any team down to Hoffenheim could aim for promotion and have a decent chance of survival the following season in stark contrast to D2/D1.

Zenit maybe will have better luck in the cup than the league with a good keeper and some depth.  Teams below 219 were at risk last year but in reality it is that bunch of 218 or less that are in danger.

Kiev have a weakness in defence and midfield, similar to Dnipro but they have some more depth maybe to see them safe.  Chievo need to look at possession football ,  Lazio need to hope their keeper keeps them safe. Basel sit in difficult place in last place in most categories.

Internacional, Levante ,Southampton for the automatic slot with a raft of teams for the playoffs.

Alarmingly no team who could get promoted from D2 would finish outside the relegation zone in D1, so D2 teams have a hard job in balancing promotion and squad improvement.

Internacional are a solid 90 and have good depth, clear favourites for the top spot,  Levante are stronger in midfield and attack but less so at the back.   Southampton are the strongest attacking team and have a decent defence / midfield balance. Werder and Everton sit a little above the rest of the playoff pack, both going for attacking prowess to progress and maybe upset the top 3.

Spurs go for the balanced approach with Liverpool arguably more attack minded.  Lots of teams have a lot of depth, Santos could well manage a great cup run and AC Milan could finish higher if they can score a few.

Last year around 219 was relegation zone, so Roma will struggle although they are surely a work in progress. Newcastle and Galatasaray are weak at the back, with Schalke having midfield problems.