Will the big 3 return to the big time? will it be a German top 3 ?

Atletico are the obvious favourites, with Southampton , Schalke and Leverkusen close behind.

O.K second division, so second point to note.  Some managers have commented that they have built their squad up through skilled trading or scouting and then get penalised in the value added againsts managers who do little or nothing. 

Well that is a good point, but to do that we would need to look at squad value increase or otherwise over the course of the season.

Anyway back to the league in hand.

Atletico and Southampton can push out a full 90 rated squad and would sit happily in division 1.  Other than Schalke and Leverkeusen , all the other teams in D2 would be relegation fodder, which is an interesting developement. Probably a result of the sorting hat in action. 

It will be interesting to see how Wolfsburg fair. A weaker keeper and no depth, but the potential to cope with the big boys in the short term

Zenit and Inter have the top keepers and should be able to challenge for a playoff spot.

Of the mid table pack Benfica and Fenerbache have a powerful attack.

Spartak and current leaders Internacional should be relegation bound.  Swansea have a potent enough forward line to avoid the drop.  There is good strength in depth in this league and any of the 87 rated teams in the top 18 category, should be able to play to their strengths all season.

As for my own team. I expect a tough start to the season but then I hope to challenge for the playoff by the end of the season.

	GK	Def	Mid	Att	Top18	Ave	Finish
Atlético Madrid	92	90.3	90.3	90.5	87	90.02	1
Southampton	90	90.5	90.5	90.5	87	89.7	2
Schalke	89	90	90.7	91	86	89.34	3
Leverkusen	91	89.7	90.5	89	86	89.24	4
Wolfsburg	88	89	91	92	85	89	5
Zenit	91	89	88.5	89.5	87	89	6
Internazionale	91	89.7	90.5	88.5	85	88.94	7
SS Lazio	89	89.3	90.3	89	87	88.92	8
Sevilla	88	89.5	90.3	89.5	87	88.86	9
SL Benfica	88	88.8	90.3	90.5	86	88.72	10
ACF Fiorentina	89	88	89.7	89.5	87	88.64	11
SPORTING CP	88	88	88.7	89.5	87	88.55	12
Fenerbahçe SK	89	87	89	90	87	88.4	13
Genoa CFC	89	88	90.3	89.5	85	88.36	14
Villarreal CF	88	89.7	88.5	88.5	87	88.34	15
Sunderland	88	88.3	88.3	89	87	88.12	16
Olympique Lyonnais	88	88.7	88.3	89.5	86	88.1	17
SC Internacional	88	88.3	87.7	87.5	86	87.88	18
Swansea City	88	87.3	88	89	86	87.66	19
Spartak Moskva	88	87.7	88.5	88.5	85	87.54	20

Who is top of the pile and who can over perform.

Have Barcelona sacrificed depth for youth?

First of all, nothing here is opinion. I don't believe or predict that AC Milan will finish last. This is just raw stats with no opinion attached.  

Barcelona still look like the favourites. Real, Bayern and Juventus should snap at their heels.  Man Utd sit ahead of a more evenly packed mid table crowd from Chelsea down to Dortmund.  Valencia and Dortmund probably have the depth to push on late in the season. The opposite is true of  the first relegation favourites Napoli, Borussia and Porto, plenty of strength , little depth. wisely Ajax and Everton have a stronger squad, to survive the inevitable relegation battle. AC Milan and Mr Beddows hold up the statistical table. Can he beat his value added score from last season?

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	Barcelona	96.0	94.0	94.3	97.5	85.0	93.4
2	Real Madrid	92.0	93.8	93.5	97.0	89.0	93.1
3	Bayern	92.0	92.5	93.5	96.5	88.0	92.5
4	Juventus	94.0	92.3	92.3	94.5	89.0	92.4
5	Manchester United	94.0	91.3	92.3	93.0	87.0	91.5
6	Chelsea	93.0	91.3	92.3	93.0	85.0	90.9
7	Arsenal	90.0	91.8	91.5	93.0	88.0	90.9
8	Paris Saint-Germain	89.0	91.3	92.5	94.5	85.0	90.5
9	Tottenham Hotspur	91.0	90.7	92.5	90.0	87.0	90.2
10	Manchester City	89.0	89.5	91.7	94.0	87.0	90.2
11	Liverpool	90.0	91.0	91.0	93.0	86.0	90.2
12	AS Roma	92.0	90.0	91.0	91.0	87.0	90.2
13	Valencia CF	90.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	88.0	90.1
14	Dortmund	89.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	88.0	89.9
15	SSC Napoli	90.0	90.5	91.0	91.5	85.0	89.6
16	FC Porto	90.0	90.3	89.5	91.5	86.0	89.5
17	Monchengladbach	90.0	89.0	90.3	91.0	86.0	89.3
18	Everton	89.0	89.5	91.0	89.5	87.0	89.2
19	Ajax	90.0	90.0	89.5	89.0	87.0	89.1
20	AC Milan	89.0	89.7	90.5	89.0	86.0	88.8

Who is the top of the stats and facts this year... will it be Mr Beddows or has the Dinosaur beaten him to it..

Firstly. The stats and facts ,despite certain people who are a little hard of understanding commenting otherwise, merely predict what should happen according to the raw data. Obviously that takes no account of manager skill, I could in future seasons factor that in , based on previous seasons value added but that is bit too much like hard work.

So on raw or should I say roar ! value added score.

AC Milan get + 14

SC Internacional +9

Boca +12

Sunderland +10

Sporting + 9

Sassuolo +10

Sampdoria +12

Santos + 8

So clearly on raw score AC Milan did a fantastic job.

If we look at skewed value added which includes a measure of success , rather than merely achievement.

AC Milan +2.33

Sporting + 9

Hellas + 6

Sassuolo +5

Sampdoria +3

Dynamo +7 

Santos +3

So we have a clear winner , ahem, which is Sporting Lisbon

 At the other end, we really need to look hard at D4 and 5

West Ham at -17 VA, and Twente -15 VA , with Monaco -0.95 skew.  

Must do better, look what you could have won!

Dynamo Moscow win the league and get the highest rating, credit goes to Santos for a good season.  Twente and even 5th place Torino fail to impress again.

Controversial a 5th place team lowest in the ranking? Well not considering the side they have. An 89 keeper and 90 rated forward , should have been a walk in the park and not a blunder through the play offs.

Pred		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finish	VA	Skew
8	Dynamo Moskva	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.0	87.1	1.0	7.0	7
11	Santos FC	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.0	85.0	86.8	3.0	8.0	2.7
13	Rubin Kazan	88.0	86.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.8	6.0	7.0	1.2
19	Club Brugge KV	87.0	86.5	88.0	87.0	83.0	86.3	12.0	7.0	0.6
12	Málaga CF	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.0	86.0	86.8	9.0	3.0	0.3
20	FK Partizan	87.0	86.5	87.0	87.5	83.0	86.2	16.0	4.0	0.3
5	Celtic	88.0	86.0	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.2	4.0	1.0	0.3
15	Flamengo	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.7	13.0	2.0	0.2
2	Celta Vigo	88.0	89.0	89.5	87.5	86.0	88.0	2.0	0.0	0
16	Augsburg	88.0	86.5	86.5	87.0	85.0	86.6	17.0	-1.0	-0.1
14	Bremen	86.0	87.0	88.5	87.0	85.0	86.7	15.0	-1.0	-0.1
10	Independiente	87.0	87.0	87.5	88.0	85.0	86.9	11.0	-1.0	-0.1
18	West Bromwich Albion	87.0	86.5	86.0	87.5	85.0	86.4	20.0	-2.0	-0.1
17	RSC Anderlecht	86.0	86.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.4	19.0	-2.0	-0.1
7	Levante UD	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.2	8.0	-1.0	-0.1
6	H. Berlin	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.0	85.0	87.2	7.0	-1.0	-0.1
9	Cologne	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.5	84.0	87.1	14.0	-5.0	-0.4
4	RCD Espanyol	88.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	86.0	87.3	10.0	-6.0	-0.6
1	Torino	89.0	88.0	88.5	90.0	87.0	88.5	5.0	-4.0	-0.8
3	FC Twente	87.0	87.5	88.5	88.5	86.0	87.5	18.0	-15.0	-0.8

Hellas and Sassuolo lead the charge. Monaco and West Ham some of the worst performing in all 4 leagues.

Again a good example of where a skew works well . Sampdoria have the highest raw VA at +12 but in all honesty 4th place hasn't won them any prizes yet!.  Hellas and Sassuolo gain auto promotion and deserve to be higher rated.

At the other end 3rd place pick West Ham finish last but was that worse than easy 1st pick Monaco finishing 12th with the side they had. Worth discussing.

Pred		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finish	VA	Skew
7	Hellas Verona	88.0	87.0	88.5	88.0	86.0	87.5	1.0	6.0	6
12	Sassuolo	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.2	2.0	10.0	5
16	Sampdoria	88.0	87.5	87.0	87.5	85.0	87.0	4.0	12.0	3
17	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	88.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.9	8.0	9.0	1.13
6	AS Saint-Etienne	89.0	87.5	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.7	3.0	3.0	1
8	Standard Liège	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.5	5.0	3.0	0.6
14	Dinamo Zagreb	89.0	87.0	87.5	87.5	84.0	87.0	11.0	3.0	0.27
11	Hoffenheim	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	86.0	87.4	9.0	2.0	0.22
18	Girondins Bordeaux	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	85.0	86.9	15.0	3.0	0.2
20	River Plate	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	83.0	86.8	18.0	2.0	0.11
15	Dynamo Kyiv	87.0	87.5	88.5	87.0	85.0	87.0	14.0	1.0	0.07
19	Montpellier HSC	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	86.0	86.9	19.0	0.0	0
5	Chievo Verona	87.0	88.5	89.0	88.0	86.0	87.7	6.0	-1.0	-0.17
13	Feyenoord	88.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	86.0	87.1	16.0	-3.0	-0.19
10	Atalanta BC	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.4	13.0	-3.0	-0.23
9	Lille OSC	89.0	87.0	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.5	17.0	-8.0	-0.47
4	AZ Alkmaar	89.0	87.0	87.5	89.0	86.0	87.7	10.0	-6.0	-0.6
2	Olympiacos	89.0	88.0	89.0	89.5	86.0	88.3	7.0	-5.0	-0.71
3	West Ham United	88.0	88.5	88.0	89.5	86.0	88.0	20.0	-17.0	-0.85
1	AS Monaco	88.0	89.5	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.9	12.0	-11.0	-0.92

Sporting Lisbon's fantastic run to the title gives them the biggest Skewed value average so far, Boca , so near so far at the moment.  PSV fall well short of the mark.

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finished	VA	Skew
10	SPORTING CP	88.0	87.5	89.0	89.0	85.0	87.7	1.0	9.0	9
6	Swansea City	88.0	88.0	87.5	89.5	87.0	88.0	2.0	4.0	2
18	Boca Juniors	88.0	87.0	87.0	88.0	85.0	87.0	6.0	12.0	2
17	Sunderland	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.1	7.0	10.0	1.4286
16	São Paulo FC	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	86.0	87.1	9.0	7.0	0.7778
20	Cruzeiro	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.6	13.0	7.0	0.5385
4	Villarreal CF	88.0	88.5	89.0	88.5	87.0	88.2	3.0	1.0	0.3333
13	Lokomotiv Moskva	87.0	88.0	88.0	89.0	84.0	87.2	10.0	3.0	0.3
19	Crystal Palace	88.0	87.5	88.0	87.5	84.0	87.0	16.0	3.0	0.1875
15	Galatasaray SK	87.0	87.0	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.2	15.0	0.0	0
12	Besiktas JK	91.0	86.5	88.0	87.0	85.0	87.5	12.0	0.0	0
14	FC Basel	87.0	87.0	88.5	88.5	85.0	87.2	17.0	-3.0	-0.176
3	Leicester City	89.0	88.0	90.0	89.5	85.0	88.3	4.0	-1.0	-0.25
5	Olympique Marseille	88.0	87.0	89.0	90.5	86.0	88.1	8.0	-3.0	-0.375
11	Udinese Calcio	87.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	87.6	19.0	-8.0	-0.421
9	Stoke City	89.0	88.0	88.0	89.0	85.0	87.8	18.0	-9.0	-0.5
7	Hamburg	88.0	88.5	88.5	89.5	85.0	87.9	14.0	-7.0	-0.5
8	Stuttgart	88.0	88.0	87.5	89.0	87.0	87.9	20.0	-12.0	-0.6
1	Athletic Club	90.0	88.5	88.0	90.0	87.0	88.7	5.0	-4.0	-0.8
2	PSV	90.0	89.0	88.5	88.0	87.0	88.5	11.0	-9.0	-0.818

 

Internacional get the biggest gain, but Everton clinching the title gets the overall award. Shaktar and Inter Milan the biggest disappointments.

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finish	VA	Skew
3	Everton	90.0	89.5	91.0	90.0	88.0	89.7	1.0	2.0	2
19	SC Internacional	88.0	87.5	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.4	10.0	9.0	0.9
5	AS Roma	91.0	90.5	91.0	90.5	84.0	89.4	3.0	2.0	0.667
15	ACF Fiorentina	88.0	89.0	89.5	88.0	86.0	88.1	9.0	6.0	0.667
12	Genoa CFC	89.0	88.5	89.0	88.0	87.0	88.3	8.0	4.0	0.5
7	Wolfsburg	89.0	89.0	89.5	92.0	86.0	89.1	5.0	2.0	0.4
20	Spartak Moskva	88.0	86.5	88.5	87.5	85.0	87.1	16.0	4.0	0.25
18	SL Benfica	88.0	87.0	89.5	90.5	83.0	87.6	15.0	3.0	0.2
13	Olympique Lyonnais	88.0	88.5	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.3	12.0	1.0	0.083
16	Aston Villa	88.0	88.0	88.0	89.5	86.0	87.9	17.0	-1.0	-0.06
10	Sevilla	88.0	88.5	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.7	11.0	-1.0	-0.09
17	Newcastle United	88.0	88.0	88.5	88.5	86.0	87.8	19.0	-2.0	-0.11
6	Ajax	90.0	90.0	89.5	89.5	87.0	89.2	7.0	-1.0	-0.14
11	Leverkusen	90.0	88.0	91.5	89.5	84.0	88.6	13.0	-2.0	-0.15
14	CSKA Moskva	90.0	89.0	88.0	89.0	85.0	88.2	20.0	-6.0	-0.3
4	Southampton	89.0	89.0	91.0	91.0	87.0	89.4	6.0	-2.0	-0.33
9	Fenerbahçe SK	89.0	89.0	89.0	89.5	88.0	88.9	14.0	-5.0	-0.36
1	Manchester United	94.0	91.0	91.5	92.0	87.0	91.1	2.0	-1.0	-0.5
2	Internazionale	91.0	91.5	92.0	91.0	86.0	90.3	4.0	-2.0	-0.5
8	Shakhtar Donetsk	89.0	89.0	89.0	90.0	88.0	89.0	18.0	-10.0	-0.56

AC Milan out perform the rest, Napoli put in a good turn.

PSG and Man City the worse performers

This year I will rate teams by raw and skewed value added, which divides value added by finishing position. This works particularly well for judging performance above the level expected but less well for -ve scores .

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finish	VA	skew
20	AC Milan	89.0	90.0	90.5	88.0	86.0	88.7	6.0	14.0	2.333
11	SSC Napoli	90.0	90.0	91.5	91.0	87.0	89.9	5.0	6.0	1.2
16	FC Porto	90.0	89.5	90.5	89.5	87.0	89.3	10.0	6.0	0.6
12	Dortmund	89.0	90.5	92.0	91.0	87.0	89.9	9.0	3.0	0.333
17	Monchengladbach	90.0	89.0	90.0	91.0	86.0	89.2	14.0	3.0	0.214
14	Valencia CF	90.0	90.0	91.0	90.0	88.0	89.8	13.0	1.0	0.077
18	Atlético Madrid	91.0	90.0	89.5	89.5	86.0	89.2	17.0	1.0	0.059
19	Zenit	91.0	89.0	89.0	89.0	87.0	89.0	18.0	1.0	0.056
3	Real Madrid	92.0	92.5	94.0	94.5	86.0	91.8	3.0	0.0	0
4	Juventus	94.0	92.5	91.5	92.5	88.0	91.7	4.0	0.0	0
1	Bayern	92.0	93.0	94.0	98.0	90.0	93.4	1.0	0.0	0
2	Barcelona	96.0	93.0	93.5	97.5	85.0	93.0	2.0	0.0	0
7	Tottenham Hotspur	92.0	90.5	92.0	90.5	87.0	90.4	8.0	-1.0	-0.13
9	Liverpool	90.0	92.0	90.0	92.5	86.0	90.1	11.0	-2.0	-0.18
15	SS Lazio	89.0	89.5	90.0	92.5	87.0	89.6	20.0	-5.0	-0.25
5	Chelsea	93.0	90.0	91.0	94.5	85.0	90.7	7.0	-2.0	-0.29
13	Schalke	89.0	90.5	91.0	92.5	86.0	89.8	19.0	-6.0	-0.32
10	Arsenal	89.0	90.0	91.5	91.5	88.0	90.0	15.0	-5.0	-0.33
6	Paris Saint-Germain	88.0	92.0	92.0	94.5	87.0	90.7	12.0	-6.0	-0.5
8	Manchester City	91.0	90.0	91.0	92.0	87.0	90.2	16.0	-8.0	-0.5

Difficult to look past the super team of Torino, so who will finish second.

You could easily argue that D5 follows the pattern of D1,2,4 only broken by the free spirited thinkers of D3 , that there must be 2 teams much better than all the rest. Is this some kind of evolutionary state or just coincidence?

Torino have a side capable of winning D3 or 4 , and more than capable of surviving in D2 . Should be a walk in the park.  Celta Vigo are a very different team, they love their midfield and use it to gain plenty of possession, even in games they have lost, they get 50% more than their opponents . These two teams should top the division or at very least gain an easy promotion.

Twente are a similar team to Celta but with a more attacking flare, in may ways Celtic match them swapping a stronger keeper for a weaker defence.  The currently under performing Espanyol look to offer a more balanced approach, but that doesn't seem to be working at the moment. You probably need 87.0 plus to survive D4, which would mean any team down to Cologne could look to a play off spot. Cologne could well be the big shock team , so long as they don't get any injuries.

As there is no relegation, one looks at the likely teams for  the sack race. Brugge and Partizan lack depth, Brugge have a decent midfield and so should be able to grind out draws and wins , that Partizan won't be able to convert long term. It will also be interesting to see how Bremen and Anderlecht cope long term minus an 87 keeper, there are alternatives at externals, so I would sacrifice a player to pick one up now , it could mean Bremen pushing for the playoffs and at worse Anderlecht being secure.

While I am at it there are some really odd teams in this division, Can't understand why you would need 11 attacking midfielders in a squad of 50 but hey , who am I to know, I suppose that is the wild wild west of D5.

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	Torino	89.0	88.0	88.5	90.0	87.0	88.5
2	Celta Vigo	88.0	89.0	89.5	87.5	86.0	88.0
3	FC Twente	87.0	87.5	88.5	88.5	86.0	87.5
4	RCD Espanyol	88.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	86.0	87.3
5	Celtic	88.0	86.0	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.2
6	H. Berlin	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.0	85.0	87.2
7	Levante UD	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.2
8	Dynamo Moskva	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.0	87.1
9	Cologne	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.5	84.0	87.1
10	Independiente	87.0	87.0	87.5	88.0	85.0	86.9
11	Santos FC	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.0	85.0	86.8
12	Málaga CF	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.0	86.0	86.8
13	Rubin Kazan	88.0	86.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.8
14	Bremen	86.0	87.0	88.5	87.0	85.0	86.7
15	Flamengo	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.7
16	Augsburg	88.0	86.5	86.5	87.0	85.0	86.6
17	RSC Anderlecht	86.0	86.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.4
18	West Bromwich Albion	87.0	86.5	86.0	87.5	85.0	86.4
19	Club Brugge KV	87.0	86.5	88.0	87.0	83.0	86.3
20	FK Partizan	87.0	86.5	87.0	87.5	83.0	86.2

There should be two teams already dominating this division. Monaco and Olympiacos.  While not doing badly, they are 5 points away from where they should be.

Division 4 too a certain extent follows the pattern in divisions 1 and 2 . Two teams much better than the rest with a pack of decent teams following on.

It isn't hard to see Monaco as out and out favourites for this division  but a weak keeper lets them down and leaves them vunerable. Sure they have a 90 rated front line but if you have an 89 rated front line and an 89 rated keeper you can give as good as you get. Olympiacos have exactly that but have a slight weakness in the back line.

Then a whole pack of team will be looking at the final promotion and play off spot.  West Ham look favoured but AZ and St Etienne have stronger keepers even if they have a weaker defence. 

In fact statistically you would need around an average of 87.2 to survive in D3 so we could go down as far as Hoffenheim to look for a possible play off team. The big shock could be Dinamo Zagreb who have gone for strength over depth. A risky tactic but it could pay off in an otherwise weaker division. 

Chievo on the other hand could struggle to get any where near their 5th spot with the joint worse keeper in the league. 

At the wrong end it really is tight. Any team from Sassuolo down are possible relegation candidates. All four relegation spots are filled by teams in the lowest 8 statistically. 

River Plate also try strength over depth but so far it isn't paying off, as one key injury leaves them vunerable . Dnipro are going great guns at the moment, especially since they have had no easy fixtures.  I can't see Montpellier staying up as they have much the weakest starting team and their compatriots Bordeaux aren't far behind. 

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	AS Monaco	88.0	89.5	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.9
2	Olympiacos	89.0	88.0	89.0	89.5	86.0	88.3
3	West Ham United	88.0	88.5	88.0	89.5	86.0	88.0
4	AZ Alkmaar	89.0	87.0	87.5	89.0	86.0	87.7
5	Chievo Verona	87.0	88.5	89.0	88.0	86.0	87.7
6	AS Saint-Etienne	89.0	87.5	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.7
7	Hellas Verona	88.0	87.0	88.5	88.0	86.0	87.5
8	Standard Liège	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.5
9	Lille OSC	89.0	87.0	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.5
10	Atalanta BC	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.4
11	Hoffenheim	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	86.0	87.4
12	Sassuolo	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.2
13	Feyenoord	88.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	86.0	87.1
14	Dinamo Zagreb	89.0	87.0	87.5	87.5	84.0	87.0
15	Dynamo Kyiv	87.0	87.5	88.5	87.0	85.0	87.0
16	Sampdoria	88.0	87.5	87.0	87.5	85.0	87.0
17	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	88.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.9
18	Girondins Bordeaux	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	85.0	86.9
19	Montpellier HSC	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	86.0	86.9
20	River Plate	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	83.0	86.8

Is Division 3 the melting pot of the Top 100 where great teams are formed while other former giants fade away?

Unlike D1 and 2 , while there are 2 better teams, they aren't that much better. One major difference is that there is a huge tail of weaker teams with little or nothing to choose between them.

Athletic Club and PSV lead the pack, and with that all important 90 rated keeper and with the Bilbao team have a 90 rated strike force they will still be favourites.

Leicseter will look to strangle other teams with their possesion of the ball, Marseille are perhaps the most potent up top ,and must seek to dominate the opponents defence.. Statistically you will need around 87.7 to survive in the higher division. Thus realistically any team down to Sporting Lisbon should be fighting for a play off spot by the end of the season.

Besitkas should be the big early season surprise, but with their keeper all but guaranteed a drop in rating and the mercurial Kaka should also fall. So like Christmas when the decorations come down , so will their form.
Lokomotiv also have the talent for an early season bid, and  argue that Sunderland and Udinese have the potential to maintain their form during the season a whole.

Down at the sticky end of the wicket, it is hard to say how Cruziero with their generally weaker squad and Palace sadly lacking depth can avoid the drop. Boca's dedication to all things Argentinian is admirable but perhaps will be their undoing.

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	Athletic Club	90.0	88.5	88.0	90.0	87.0	88.7
2	PSV	90.0	89.0	88.5	88.0	87.0	88.5
3	Leicester City	89.0	88.0	90.0	89.5	85.0	88.3
4	Villarreal CF	88.0	88.5	89.0	88.5	87.0	88.2
5	Olympique Marseille	88.0	87.0	89.0	90.5	86.0	88.1
6	Swansea City	88.0	88.0	87.5	89.5	87.0	88.0
7	Hamburg	88.0	88.5	88.5	89.5	85.0	87.9
8	Stuttgart	88.0	88.0	87.5	89.0	87.0	87.9
9	Stoke City	89.0	88.0	88.0	89.0	85.0	87.8
10	SPORTING CP	88.0	87.5	89.0	89.0	85.0	87.7
11	Udinese Calcio	87.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	87.6
12	Besiktas JK	91.0	86.5	88.0	87.0	85.0	87.5
13	Lokomotiv Moskva	87.0	88.0	88.0	89.0	84.0	87.2
14	FC Basel	87.0	87.0	88.5	88.5	85.0	87.2
15	Galatasaray SK	87.0	87.0	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.2
16	São Paulo FC	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	86.0	87.1
17	Sunderland	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.1
18	Boca Juniors	88.0	87.0	87.0	88.0	85.0	87.0
19	Crystal Palace	88.0	87.5	88.0	87.5	84.0	87.0
20	Cruzeiro	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.6

Division 2, in someways a copy of division 1, 2 clubs a cut and above the rest. One side who seem to be in desperate trouble.

Anything other than automatic promotion would be a disgrace for Man Utd and Inter who were two of the most under performing teams last year.  Both should sit comfortably in the middle of Division 1. How much the great keeper Man Utd have is skewing their performance is hard to say, but as it is one player that is never injured then I expect them to do well.

Southampton if they can keep it clean at the back should get plenty of possession to feed their attacking duo, Roma should also challenge for the 3rd automatic spot.  Realistically any team rate 89.2 or above could survive in D1 , so we look down as far as Ajax for the likely playoff contenders, which is a little higher than normal.

Leverkeusen could be the biggest surprise but they lack any real depth and after last years miserable performance they really must do better.  There are 5 obvious relegation candidates,.
Aston Villa have a reasonable attack and could survive. Newcastle have a slightly better midfield,  Benfica are potent upfront but lack depth and defence. Inter also lack depth  ,Spartak however are much the weakest in defence. 

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	Manchester United	94.0	91.0	91.5	92.0	87.0	91.1
2	Internazionale	91.0	91.5	92.0	91.0	86.0	90.3
3	Everton	90.0	89.5	91.0	90.0	88.0	89.7
4	Southampton	89.0	89.0	91.0	91.0	87.0	89.4
5	AS Roma	91.0	90.5	91.0	90.5	84.0	89.4
6	Ajax	90.0	90.0	89.5	89.5	87.0	89.2
7	Wolfsburg	89.0	89.0	89.5	92.0	86.0	89.1
8	Shakhtar Donetsk	89.0	89.0	89.0	90.0	88.0	89.0
9	Fenerbahçe SK	89.0	89.0	89.0	89.5	88.0	88.9
10	Sevilla	88.0	88.5	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.7
11	Leverkusen	90.0	88.0	91.5	89.5	84.0	88.6
12	Genoa CFC	89.0	88.5	89.0	88.0	87.0	88.3
13	Olympique Lyonnais	88.0	88.5	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.3
14	CSKA Moskva	90.0	89.0	88.0	89.0	85.0	88.2
15	ACF Fiorentina	88.0	89.0	89.5	88.0	86.0	88.1
16	Aston Villa	88.0	88.0	88.0	89.5	86.0	87.9
17	Newcastle United	88.0	88.0	88.5	88.5	86.0	87.8
18	SL Benfica	88.0	87.0	89.5	90.5	83.0	87.6
19	SC Internacional	88.0	87.5	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.4
20	Spartak Moskva	88.0	86.5	88.5	87.5	85.0	87.1

Who should win and who is odds on for the chop.

As ever Bayern and Barcelona dominate, at the other end it is hard to see how AC Milan will finish outside the relegation zone.

Firstly , this table is pure statistics. I look at each team, if in doubt I look at 442 or 352 as the more common formations. This year I have removed Top15 and Top21 and replaced that by Top18 , the 18th best player , not including duplicate keeper. The reason for this is that top sides were getting a double bonus from already good players , other strong sides had results skewed by players who were never going to play ( good or bad ).

 

GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Average 1 Bayern 92.0 93.0 94.0 98.0 90.0 93.4 2 Barcelona 96.0 93.0 93.5 97.5 85.0 93.0 3 Real Madrid 92.0 92.5 94.0 94.5 86.0 91.8 4 Juventus 94.0 92.5 91.5 92.5 88.0 91.7 5 Chelsea 93.0 90.0 91.0 94.5 85.0 90.7 6 Paris Saint-Germain 88.0 92.0 92.0 94.5 87.0 90.7 7 Tottenham Hotspur 92.0 90.5 92.0 90.5 87.0 90.4 8 Manchester City 91.0 90.0 91.0 92.0 87.0 90.2 9 Liverpool 90.0 92.0 90.0 92.5 86.0 90.1 10 Arsenal 89.0 90.0 91.5 91.5 88.0 90.0 11 SSC Napoli 90.0 90.0 91.5 91.0 87.0 89.9 12 Dortmund 89.0 90.5 92.0 91.0 87.0 89.9 13 Schalke 89.0 90.5 91.0 92.5 86.0 89.8 14 Valencia CF 90.0 90.0 91.0 90.0 88.0 89.8 15 SS Lazio 89.0 89.5 90.0 92.5 87.0 89.6 16 FC Porto 90.0 89.5 90.5 89.5 87.0 89.3 17 Monchengladbach 90.0 89.0 90.0 91.0 86.0 89.2 18 Atlético Madrid 91.0 90.0 89.5 89.5 86.0 89.2 19 Zenit 91.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 87.0 89.0 20 AC Milan 89.0 90.0 90.5 88.0 86.0 88.7

Bayern clearly have the best over all team. Barcelona sit a little behind but are much more vunerable to injuries during the season.  Real and Juve make up the usual top 4. Of the rest Chelsea have the capability to make the top 4 as do Tottenham and Man City on a good day.

The joker in the pack surely must be PSG do they have a decent keeper coming in , if not they will finish a lot lower than the predicted 7th spot, if so then they could finish 4th or 5th.

From 8th to 15th it really will be about manager skill, as the teams are so closely packed in terms of ability. At the lower end,  Porto and Milan will stuggle to impress against the lower teams. Zenit and Atletico lean heavily on their keeper, Atletico may will expect a boost during the season, Zenit may not be so lucky.

The team that will really suffer is AC Milan, promotion is a mixed blessing at the best of times, but they are probably the team least able to score against others and despite a good keeper and defence they are likely to see the ball half as often as they did against Schalke at the weekend. It would be a huge achievement if Mr Beddows keeps them out of the sack race.

Ok to repeat , all teams were rated purely statistically , the finishing position calculated, the final position has been deducted and that gives you the value added , the higher the better.
 So well done Southampton, PSV, Leicester,
Monaco, St Etienne and Hoffenheim need to improve.

	Gk	Def	Mid	Att	Top15	Top21	Average	Predict	Finish	Value
Southampton	89	89	87	89	85	80	86.5	16	6	10
PSV	87	88	87	88	85	84	86.5	15	5	10
Leicester City	89	88	88	90	84	80	86.5	14	4	10
SC Internacional	88	87	88	88	86	85	87	10	3	7
Galatasaray SK	87	88	88	88	84	80	85.83	20	13	7
Cruzeiro	87	87	87	87	86	85	86.5	17	10	7
Crystal Palace	87	87	88	87	85	82	86	18	12	6
Genoa CFC	89	88	89	90	86	82	87.33	6	2	4
Aston Villa	88	88	87	88	87	86	87.33	5	1	4
Sunderland	87	87	87	87	86	86	86.67	13	11	2
Girondins Bordeaux	88	87	88	88	85	80	86	19	20	-1
Swansea City	88	87	88	89	86	83	86.83	11	14	-3
Udinese Calcio	87	87	87	88	87	85	86.83	12	16	-4
Besiktas JK	88	87	88	89	87	87	87.67	4	8	-4
Olympique Marseille	91	88	89	89	86	85	88	2	7	-5
Athletic Club	90	88	88	88	87	86	87.83	3	9	-6
Stoke City	89	88	88	89	87	82	87.17	7	15	-8
Hoffenheim	88	87	87	88	86	86	87	8	18	-10
AS Saint-Etienne	89	87	88	87	86	85	87	9	19	-10
AS Monaco	88	89	89	90	87	86	88.17	1	17	-16

Value added. Did you let your team down or did the players perform superbly.
 Sao Paulo and Feyenord at 16 and 14 + worthy promoted teams. Terrible Torino nad Dnipro who should have been top finish at the wrong end of the table.

	Gk	Def	Mid	Att	Top15	Top21	Average	Pred		Finish	Value
São Paulo FC	87	87	88	87	85	83	86.17	18		2	16
Feyenoord	88	86	87	87	84	84	86	19		5	14
Villarreal CF	88	89	88	87	86	85	87.17	8		1	7
Sassuolo	88	87	87	88	85	83	86.33	17		11	6
Hamburg	88	87	88	89	86	85	87.17	6		3	3
Cologne	88	87	88	88	84	79	85.67	20		17	3
Sampdoria	88	88	87	88	86	85	87	10		8	2
Hellas Verona	87	87	87	88	86	86	86.83	12		10	2
River Plate	88	87	88	87	85	83	86.33	16		15	1
Atalanta BC	88	87	88	88	86	82	86.5	14		13	1
Lille OSC	89	87	88	88	86	85	87.17	9		9	0
Stuttgart	88	87	88	88	87	86	87.33	5		6	-1
Chievo Verona	88	88	88	89	87	86	87.67	2		4	-2
West Ham United	88	88	88	88	87	85	87.33	4		7	-3
Montpellier HSC	87	87	88	88	86	85	86.83	11		14	-3
Dynamo Moskva	87	87	87	87	86	85	86.5	15		19	-4
AZ	89	87	88	88	86	85	87.17	7		12	-5
Málaga CF	87	87	88	86	86	85	86.5	13		20	-7
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	88	87	88	88	87	86	87.33	3		16	-13
Torino	89	89	88	90	87	85	88	1		18	-17

Fiorentina , the long good bye, mid season review.

 

The situation looks bleak and is bleak.

With no win in any competition since Jul 19th the only hope is to avoid the sack but even that would need a dramatic change in form.

 Statistically and in reality the weakest team in Division 1 , it would need a minor miracle to avoid any thing other than the wooden spoon.

After a poor start and realistically facing teams it is nigh on impossible to beat, a good cup run, a good win and draws against better teams saw Fiorentina on the up.

However the fact of the matter is that with a leading scorer on 5 goals , and attack argueably the stongest part of the team, a team that doesn't play to it's strength is likely to come of worse.

The one and only highlight is the addition of some good youngsters which should help the new manager whoever that will be. Not to say I have given up but without a single home win in the league, the sack is coming for sure.

Olympiacos, Kiev and Celta Vigo should claim the top 3 spots leaving a scrap for the play off spots.

While not doing so well at the moment Olympiacos are a cut above the other teams. Virtually an 89 all round team , they could compete in any division. 

If one suggests that above 86.50 would be enough to fight for and gain promotion, any team down to Berlin has a chance.  Celta Vigo and Kiev should be top candidates for auto promotion.  With the exception of Hertha Berlin all the top 10 or so have fair depth in their squad. 

It might just be me , but I can't understand D5 teams have 4 or 5 players in one position , who never play but then have an obvious weakness elsewhere, I'm sure an exchange could easily be arranged.  With no relegation the sack race should be between any of the lowest 6 rated teams.  FK Partizan and Augsburg may be over performing at the moment but as the season goes on I expect Levante and Bremen to rapidly improve.

It may seem obvious but as time goes on Division 5 will slowly lose quality teams. 4 go up , 4 worse come down etc each season until you rinse and repeat those already promoted. 

Good luck to you all. 

 

	Gk	Def	Mid	Att	Top15	Top21	Ave
Olympiacos	89	89	89	89	87	85	88.00
Celta Vigo	87	88	89	87	86	86	87.17
Dynamo Kyiv	87	87	88	88	86	86	87.00
Celtic	88	86	87	88	86	86	86.83
Santos FC	87	87	88	87	87	85	86.83
RCD Espanyol	88	87	87	87	86	85	86.67
Standard Liège	88	87	87	87	86	85	86.67
H. Berlin	88	88	88	88	86	82	86.67
RSC Anderlecht	87	87	87	87	86	85	86.50
Flamengo	87	86	87	88	86	85	86.50
FC Twente	87	86	87	87	86	85	86.33
Bremen	86	87	87	87	86	85	86.33
Dinamo Zagreb	89	87	87	87	85	82	86.17
West Bromwich Albion	87	87	87	87	85	84	86.17
Club Brugge KV	87	86	88	87	85	83	86.00
Levante UD	88	88	86	87	85	82	86.00
Independiente	87	86	87	88	85	82	85.83
Rubin Kazan	87	87	86	87	85	83	85.83
FK Partizan	87	86	87	88	85	80	85.50
Augsburg	88	86	86	87	83	80	85.00