Spurs lead the stats with Dnipro having +13 VA.

A much greater level of over and underperformance in division 2.

Spurs finish 7 places higher than expected and finish 2^nd in the real table but just pip champs Villa in the stats.  Dnipro make the playoffs not bad for a relegation favourite but that has been said too often about them.  Valencia clinch the 3^rd auto spot  and they just lead the mighty Augsburg in the stats table who just missed out on  the play-offs. Honourable mentions also to Southampton and Man Utd who showed considerable improvement this season.

It all went horribly wrong for Anderlecht and to some extent Genoa , but they at least could redeem all with a play-off win -13 and -4 VA respectively. Liverpool , Flamengo and Santos also failed to live up to expectations. 3 out of 4 teams expected to drop in the top 2 divisions did so.

Chelsea champions and stop of the stats.  Espanyol and Real Madrid make great progress.

A few notes. Value added is literally how many places above the expected position a club finishes. PVA or positional value added is the value added +1  divided by the finishing position, so a high position counts more.

Chelsea are well deserved champions , they pushed 1 place above the predicted level and lead the stats.  Espanyol have the highest value added , in the top 6 and 8 places higher than expected .  Madird and Dortmund showed some real improvement with most of the rest of the division close to what would have been expected.

The only exception to this is Arsenal who finish in the lower half of the table on -7 VA and -0.5 PVA.

Rubin and Inter lead the pack is defence the best form of attack in division 5.

Both the leading clubs have a good keeper and defence combo and a fairly strong attack. Athletic club also have a strong keeper and stronger attack in the top and tail approach.   Twente and Spartak have 87 rated keepers but this is standard in D5, Spartak have a far weaker defence than most but will be reliant on the midfield to shield the back line and the strikers to push the goals in.

Boca will fancy  their chances of at least a play off spot with a strong keeper , attacker pair.

217 is the cut off for relegation in D4 so a dozen or more teams could compete for promotion, Atalanta may well have a good mix for that in my view.

Obviously no relegation , just the sack race to avoid. Shaktar are very much a work in progress.  They are very much an easy meal for most teams,  Independiente just need to get the defence together.  Torino rebuild almost there . Malaga just need to polish up the midfield a little.

Division 5 will probably be a little easier to exit from this season it is about half a point weaker mainly due to Swansea & Sao Paulo’s promotion leaving no teams rated above 220.

Five teams in the fight for the title in Division 4.

It seems that Division 4 will have at least 2 really disappointed teams that most years would have grabbed an automatic place but will now be in the playoffs at best . Celta Vigo have a strong attack and a good midfield. With a competent back line , at least by D4 standards they should gain promotion.  Sao Paulo a little less attacking but more defensive, should score less but concede less than Celta so should match them all the way.  Swansea just a fraction lower than Sao Paulo, better in midfield but less potent up top, will need to make the most of the increased chances.  Leicester ,pretty much like Celta Vigo should make up the top 4.  Dynamo Moscow have a major weakness in goal, especially against these and other potent attacks.

This really only leaves two play off spots.  Lille top and tail their team and must be favourites to upset the top 5 if anyone does,  Cruziero are a similar build with CSKA the other playoff possible having a more balanced approach.

218 could be the survival stakes in D3 so any team down to Chievo could make a run for the play off spot and survive the next season and they look like a team who could make a good performance in the cup this year.

At the wrong end of the table , the cut off for relegation is around 217 at the moment.  It is hard to see Lazio surviving with a weak defence and attack.  Basel need to strengthen the midfield and West Ham their defence.  PSV should be ok if they avoid injuires. Lokomotiv must use their attacking line effectively as they will ship goals at the other end.

Division 4 is half a point stronger this season, maybe a little skewed by the top 5 which show the challenge anyone outside that group has getting into automatic or even play off spots.

Will West Brom’s strike force carry them to the title?

A huge reliance on a potent strike force has worked well in the past in D3 and West Brom have all the tools to pull off that trick.   They sit well above Zagreb the next best attacking side and Sassulo who pack the back line better than most. They probably should be the top 3 .  The play off teams should be  Roma who lack depth so will need a good start and a similar issue could affect Wolfsburg while both teams are an attacking force.  Udinese and Hoffenheim have more coverage and may have to wait a game or two to make an impact.

To survive in D2 you will need a rating of 221, so other than the top 3 , the rest will struggle if they go up.  Feyenoord  and Fenernahce are an interesting prospect ,strong keeper and attack but lacking elsewhere.  Galatasaray could be consistent all season and should put in a good cup run.

Last season a rating of 218 or less got you relegated no questions asked.  This leaves Newcastle ,Sevilla, Zenit and Napoli in serious trouble unless they can pull off a Dnipro.  Zenit really just need a slightly better attacker,  Napoli have much more work to do in midfield and defence.  Sevilla an attacker could help and Newcastle maybe a better Keeper and defence.

Compared to last season division 3 is half a point weaker across the board. This could lead to a larger selection of playoff teams than usual but won’t really save the weaker teams as even 217.5 is the already the level of the lowest 4 teams with the next worst .7 above them.

Genoa certain to return to Division 1? What about the rest

Genoa are by rights a mid table D1 side and while nothing is guaranteed they lead every important stat except defence.

There are then maybe 4 other teams in for a good shout at the remaining 2 automatic places.  Anderlecht have huge depth and if Genoa falter are the only team who could challenge them.   Villa potent up top and in midfield but lacking depth.  Ajax , surely a keeper away from a great team and Valencia who again maybe a little weak in defence but are more than solid elsewhere.

Then doing the maths that leaves 2 free playoff spots.  Everton , Leverkeusen, Liverpool and Tottenham should be favoured teams.  Everton weaker at the back, Leverkeusen maybe need a star forward. Liverpool will they get enough possession and Spurs a good all rounder team.

The cut off to survive division 1 is around 224, so realistically it would probably be unwise for any other team to push for promotion without drastically improving first.

At the lower end it was pretty much set in stone 219.5 or less last season meant a massive risk of relegation.  Only 3 teams sit close to that Dnipro, the galant over performers will be out classed in all departments, River Plate surely an 87 keeper will not be enough without the back up of possession or a scoring force.  Monaco seem to be a rating or more below 17^th spot.

That high cut off now could drag Santos or Schalke into the mix with even Man Utd, PSG, Southampton and Sporting needed to keep an eye on what is going on should they slip into danger.

As for a cup run Anderlecht would have a chance, as could PSG or Schalke.

Division 2 is substantially stronger than last season and will be a tough challenge for all concerned.

Barcelona and Chelsea top the table.

First of all the explanations.

This is purely statistical and takes no account of squad building or managerial ability.

How it works: I look at the likely picks for the first eleven and take an average of the ability in Gk, Def, Mid , Att and the Top 18^th player ( unlikely you will need to go down any further )

Then using a formula developed in the first few seasons on the relevant importance of key positions. I calculate the ETOT the estimated total strength of the team.

There is some human input if you lack say 2 decent forwards in the first eleven or your 18^th players was 5 ratings below anyone else.

It is really tight between Barcelona ,depth vs Chelsea strength.  A few injuries would push it the way of Barcelona with Juventus a kind of halfway house between the two teams.

There is then a huge gap down to Porto a defensive based team and Arsenal and attacking force who could still trouble the top 3.

Real and Bayern are the next nearest challengers with Hellas perhaps a keeper away from a great squad.

Relegation cut of is around 225.5 there are therefore 7 teams realistically who could face the drop this season.  Maybe as said last season it is difficult to see Stoke surviving this season unless they pick up the scraps from the other lower ranked teams.  Milan also sit well beneath the comfort zone and will struggle.  Espanyol should survive if they avoid injuries, Hertha likewise.  This leaves Internacional , Bremen and Levante fighting it out for the last survival spot.

Interestingly D1 is half a point weaker than last season perhaps as a result of the unusually strong teams who were relegated..

Cruziero top of the league and top of the stats.

No one could doubt that a league winner with +5 VA should lead the stats, Sau Paulo the 2^nd place team in real life only figure 8^th in the stats despite a great season.

Montpellier are 2^nd in the stats they made the play offs beyond expectations. Independiente had the highest VA on +7 with Torino on +6.. Shaktar and St Etienne also over performed and should have a notable mention

Spartak have the lowest VA and PVA, should have been 3^rd but really never got started. Twente on -7 also were disappointing..

The 3rd 2nd 1st are 1st 2nd 3rd in the stats.

A great season by Fenerbache give them the highest VA in D4 at +11 and PVA at +4 and a promotion spot.  Celtic on the basis of finishing 3 positions above expected are second in the stats with leaders Wolfsburg in 3^rd. Sampdoria in 4^th are on +5 VA with a whole series of overperfomers on +7

Bruge,  Moscow and West ham all pushed away from danger and in some cases into the play offs and a notable mention to PSV.

This obviously means that there will be an equal number of underperformers.

CSKA should have been top but struggled to get in the playoffs. They have -5 VA and -0.67 PVA. Fiorentina and Koln have the worst VA on -8. Leicester, Dynamo Moscow, Villareal and Marseille also slipped well below expectations.

Dnipro +15 VA and +8 PVA fantastic achievement.

Relegation prospects to 2^nd spot , hard to beat really in terms of achievement and a great year by Dnipro.  Augsburg were much the most consistent team of the year and they needed to turn over their last 4 opponents to even win the title by 3 points. They finish 2^nd in the stats. Only Feyenoord and Sassuolo can get to +3VA but Sassuolo will be much happier with the play off spot.

Biggest under performance this year is probably a tie between Sporting on -5 VA and -0.67 VA, no wins in 8 games at one point probably cost them the title mid season. Zagreb also should have been playoff but finished 12^th . WBA also had -5VA as they slipped out the playoff spots.

3 of the 4 predicted relegation teams were relegated and they must look to rebuild next season.