Shock as new prediction formula predicts Barcelona will win the league .

Will Chelsea , Bayern or Juve have enough to push them out the way?

First of all the usual warning.

None of the statistics are an opinion based, neither do they in anyway reflect the hard work or inate managerial skill you all obviously all have.

I also have, at some points , had to make difficult choices around the kind of formation you will put out.

The new "experimental " formula slightly downgrades the effect of a singular good keeper and the importance of depth. Why ? well on testing over the last season it seems to get it right more often.

Barcelona and Chelsea have much the best starting sides, but lack some depth. So they should do well early in the season until fatigue and injury starts to bite. They will need to build up a good lead as Juventus and Bayern have more depth and will worry less.

Real Madrid should also prove a hard side to break down. Man Utd on the otherhand could well suffer at the hands of the big sides.

Fiorentina and Liverpool look like the obvious favourites for relegation.  Despite a fair start Fiorentina seem to be relatively weak in all categories, meaning teams just need to play their normal game to beat them.  Liverpool less so and have a stronger defence but will that be enough as the draws start to mount up.  Then any two of 4 out of Porto, Wolfsburg, Schalke and Monchengladbach should fill up the remaining spots.

Don't read anything into Dortmunds poor start , look at the fixtures, they have played all the top sides statistically and will now be looking to climb up the table.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave		ETOT
Barcelona	96.0	93.3	94.5	97.0	85.0	93.2		234.97
Chelsea	93.0	93.3	93.3	97.5	85.0	92.4		233.94
Bayern	92.0	93.3	94.3	95.5	88.0	92.6		233.68
Juventus	95.0	91.3	93.5	94.0	90.0	92.8		231.10
Manchester United	89.0	91.3	94.3	92.5	87.0	90.8		229.65
Real Madrid	93.0	91.8	92.3	93.5	87.0	91.5		229.58
Arsenal	91.0	91.3	91.3	93.5	88.0	91.0		228.26
Manchester City	90.0	91.0	91.0	94.0	87.0	90.6		227.94
Tottenham Hotspur	90.0	91.3	92.5	91.5	88.0	90.7		227.84
Paris Saint-Germain	94.0	91.8	91.3	91.0	87.0	91.0		227.27
Dortmund	92.0	90.5	91.5	92.0	86.0	90.4		226.76
SSC Napoli	90.0	90.0	91.8	92.0	87.0	90.2		226.44
AS Roma	92.0	89.8	92.0	90.5	86.0	90.1		225.59
Atlético Madrid	89.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	87.0	89.7		225.47
FC Porto	90.0	90.5	90.3	90.5	88.0	89.9		224.79
Wolfsburg	90.0	90.5	90.8	90.0	87.0	89.7		224.74
Schalke	89.0	89.5	90.8	91.0	87.0	89.5		224.47
Monchengladbach	90.0	89.5	90.8	91.0	86.0	89.5		224.47
Liverpool	90.0	90.0	90.0	90.0	87.0	89.4		223.74
ACF Fiorentina	89.0	88.8	90.0	89.5	86.0	88.7		222.18

Division 5 Value added season 6.

The division where winning isn't enough.

Might seen cruel that Monaco are so lowely rated, but they were head and shoulders above the rest so it was a walk in the park.  Torino and Twente were also highly ranked ,so only one of the top 4 figure in the best scores.

Anderlecht , Bremen and Augsburg have the best VA with 3rd spot Anderlecht claiming the overall crown. 

Bremen and Augsburg 6th and 8th respectively also come 2nd and 3rd in the PVA.  Montpellier who grab a playoff spot also had a great VA on +9.

Worse performers were Cologne - 10 VA and -0.47 PVA. West Ham Espanyol , River Plate who should all have been in the playoffs or promoted fill the remaining lower positions. Espanyol in the play offs may feel annoyed but they should have been promoted automatically ..

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
RSC Anderlecht	86.0	87.5	87.8	87.5	85.0	86.75	14.0	3.0	11.0	4
Bremen	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	85.0	86.70	17.0	6.0	11.0	2
Augsburg	88.0	85.5	87.5	87.0	82.0	86.00	19.0	8.0	11.0	1.5
Torino	89.0	87.8	87.8	88.0	86.0	87.70	4.0	2.0	2.0	1.5
Montpellier HSC	86.0	87.0	87.0	88.5	85.0	86.70	16.0	7.0	9.0	1.43
AS Monaco	88.0	88.3	90.3	90.0	86.0	88.50	1.0	1.0	0.0	1
Santos FC	87.0	86.0	87.8	87.0	85.0	86.55	18.0	15.0	3.0	0.27
West Bromwich Albion	87.0	83.0	84.0	87.0	77.0	83.60	20.0	18.0	2.0	0.17
FC Twente	92.0	87.3	88.0	89.0	85.0	88.25	3.0	4.0	-1.0	0
Lille OSC	89.0	87.0	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.30	8.0	9.0	-1.0	0
Club Brugge KV	88.0	87.3	88.0	87.5	85.0	87.15	10.0	12.0	-2.0	-0.08
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	88.0	87.0	87.3	87.5	86.0	87.15	11.0	14.0	-3.0	-0.14
Flamengo	87.0	87.8	87.8	87.0	86.0	87.10	13.0	17.0	-4.0	-0.18
Independiente	87.0	88.0	87.8	88.0	85.0	87.15	12.0	16.0	-4.0	-0.19
Rubin Kazan	88.0	86.8	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.75	15.0	20.0	-5.0	-0.2
West Ham United	88.0	88.3	89.0	87.5	84.0	87.35	7.0	10.0	-3.0	-0.2
RCD Espanyol	88.0	88.8	89.5	89.0	87.0	88.45	2.0	5.0	-3.0	-0.4
River Plate	88.0	88.8	87.8	88.0	85.0	87.50	5.0	11.0	-6.0	-0.45
Udinese Calcio	87.0	87.8	88.0	88.5	86.0	87.45	6.0	13.0	-7.0	-0.46
Cologne	87.0	87.5	87.8	88.0	86.0	87.25	9.0	19.0	-10.0	-0.47

Division 4 Season 6 value added.

Best value added +12, goes to Dynamo Kiev and Sao Paulo but they had too much to gain on Hertha Berlin the PVA leader and champions.

A notable + 10 for Dynamo Moscow and +7 for relegation favoured Dynamo Zagreb.  4th place Palace also had the fourth highest PVA of +2. 

At the wrong end, Basel have the worse PVA and VA of - 15.  Liege struggle to impress 6 places lower than they should have been .  Malaga were 7 places lower and got relegated.  Second lowest VA is for Celta Vigo who came 9 places lower than they should . 

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
H. Berlin	88.0	87.5	88.0	89.0	86.0	87.70	7.0	1.0	6.0	7
Dynamo Kyiv	87.0	88.0	88.5	86.5	86.0	87.20	15.0	3.0	12.0	4.33
São Paulo FC	88.0	87.3	87.3	88.0	85.0	87.10	17.0	5.0	12.0	2.6
Crystal Palace	87.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.40	11.0	4.0	7.0	2
Dynamo Moskva	87.0	87.0	87.8	87.5	86.0	87.05	18.0	8.0	10.0	1.38
Dinamo Zagreb	88.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.90	20.0	13.0	7.0	0.62
Girondins Bordeaux	87.0	87.0	87.3	88.0	86.0	87.05	19.0	14.0	5.0	0.43
Stuttgart	88.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	85.0	87.10	16.0	16.0	0.0	0.06
Leicester City	89.0	88.3	88.3	89.5	86.0	88.20	1.0	2.0	-1.0	0
Levante UD	87.0	88.3	88.3	88.0	85.0	87.30	14.0	15.0	-1.0	0
Olympiacos	89.0	88.0	88.3	88.5	85.0	87.75	5.0	6.0	-1.0	0
Stoke City	88.0	87.3	89.0	88.0	85.0	87.45	9.0	11.0	-2.0	-0.1
Atalanta BC	88.0	87.3	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.45	8.0	10.0	-2.0	-0.1
Feyenoord	88.0	87.5	87.8	87.5	86.0	87.35	12.0	18.0	-6.0	-0.3
Boca Juniors	88.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	87.80	4.0	7.0	-3.0	-0.3
Málaga CF	87.0	88.0	87.3	87.5	87.0	87.35	13.0	20.0	-7.0	-0.3
FK Partizan	88.0	88.3	88.3	87.0	87.0	87.70	6.0	12.0	-6.0	-0.4
Celta Vigo	87.0	87.5	89.3	88.5	85.0	87.45	10.0	19.0	-9.0	-0.4
Standard Liège	88.0	87.3	88.3	89.0	87.0	87.90	3.0	9.0	-6.0	-0.6
FC Basel	89.0	88.5	88.5	89.0	85.0	88.00	2.0	17.0	-15.0	-0.8

Division 3 value added season 6

The Hoff have a massive +13 VA and +14 PVA..  Chievo close on +13 VA and 2.8 PVA with Celtic 2nd place in league and PVA.

St Etienne also had a great season +5 VA +2 PVA, special mention must go to Hamburg on +8 VA who fell at the last hurdle, and Cruziero with +8 VA.

PSV failed to impress on -14 VA and -0.87 PVA, arguably the weakest performance in all 5 division was Hellas who were predicted 2nd but came last on -18 VA with also relegate Marsielle not far behind.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
Hoffenheim	88.0	87.5	88.5	88.0	85.0	87.40	14.0	1.0	13.0	14
Celtic	88.0	89.0	89.3	89.0	85.0	88.05	7.0	2.0	5.0	3
Chievo Verona	88.0	87.3	88.8	86.0	85.0	87.00	18.0	5.0	13.0	2.8
AS Saint-Etienne	89.0	87.5	88.0	88.5	86.0	87.80	8.0	3.0	5.0	2
Hamburg	88.0	88.3	87.8	87.5	85.0	87.30	16.0	8.0	8.0	1.125
Newcastle United	88.0	88.8	88.8	88.5	87.0	88.20	6.0	4.0	2.0	0.75
Cruzeiro	87.0	86.7	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.54	20.0	12.0	8.0	0.75
Lokomotiv Moskva	88.0	87.5	87.3	89.0	85.0	87.35	15.0	11.0	4.0	0.455
Spartak Moskva	87.0	87.8	88.0	88.0	85.0	87.15	17.0	13.0	4.0	0.385
Galatasaray SK	87.0	87.3	87.5	88.5	84.0	86.85	19.0	16.0	3.0	0.25
AZ Alkmaar	89.0	87.3	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.65	10.0	10.0	0.0	0.1
Swansea City	88.0	86.5	88.3	89.0	86.0	87.55	13.0	14.0	-1.0	0
Sevilla	88.0	89.5	90.0	90.0	85.0	88.50	4.0	6.0	-2.0	-0.167
Aston Villa	88.0	88.3	88.3	87.5	86.0	87.60	12.0	17.0	-5.0	-0.235
Shakhtar Donetsk	90.0	88.0	88.3	88.0	87.0	88.25	5.0	9.0	-4.0	-0.333
Beşiktaş JK	87.0	87.0	88.8	88.5	87.0	87.65	11.0	19.0	-8.0	-0.368
Olympique Lyonnais	90.0	88.5	89.0	90.0	85.0	88.50	3.0	7.0	-4.0	-0.429
Olympique Marseille	87.0	88.3	89.0	88.5	86.0	87.75	9.0	18.0	-9.0	-0.444
Hellas Verona	89.0	88.3	89.3	89.5	87.0	88.60	2.0	20.0	-18.0	-0.85
PSV	90.0	89.0	90.0	89.0	87.0	89.00	1.0	15.0	-14.0	-0.867

Borussia M, well deserved leaders PVA, just ahead of Fiorentina who had a great +9 VA

 Some other great performances Sporting +6 VA, Sampdoria +5, Genoa +0.8 PVA.

At the wrong end,  Inter get the lowest PVA as, they should have finished 1st, narrowly above Benfica who had the lowest VA at -12.

Other poor performances from , Everton and Lazio

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr		ETOT	Epr	FIN	VA	PVA
Monchengladbach	90.0	89.3	90.0	91.5	86.0	89.35	5.0		229.25	5.0	1.0	4.0	5
ACF Fiorentina	89.0	88.8	90.5	89.5	87.0	88.95	9.0		227.78	12.0	3.0	9.0	3.33
Dortmund	89.0	89.5	91.5	90.5	87.0	89.50	4.0		229.84	3.0	2.0	1.0	1
Genoa CFC	89.0	89.3	90.0	90.5	85.0	88.75	12.0		228.36	8.0	5.0	3.0	0.8
Sporting CP	88.0	88.0	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.20	15.0		225.59	16.0	10.0	6.0	0.7
Sampdoria	87.0	88.3	89.3	90.0	87.0	88.30	14.0		226.54	14.0	9.0	5.0	0.67
Schalke	89.0	88.8	90.8	90.0	86.0	88.90	11.0		228.15	9.0	6.0	3.0	0.67
Sassuolo	88.0	88.3	88.8	89.0	85.0	87.80	19.0		225.44	17.0	14.0	3.0	0.29
SC Internacional	89.0	88.8	88.5	89.0	85.0	88.05	16.0		225.89	15.0	13.0	2.0	0.23
Zenit Saint Petersburg	91.0	88.8	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.95	8.0		226.70	13.0	12.0	1.0	0.17
CSKA Moskva	89.0	88.3	88.0	89.0	86.0	88.05	17.0		225.18	18.0	17.0	1.0	0.12
AC Milan	89.0	89.5	89.5	89.5	87.0	88.90	10.0		227.87	11.0	11.0	0.0	0.09
Athletic Club	89.0	88.0	88.5	88.0	86.0	87.90	18.0		224.61	19.0	19.0	0.0	0.05
Fenerbahçe SK	89.0	87.0	88.8	88.0	86.0	87.75	20.0		223.78	20.0	20.0	0.0	0.05
Southampton	90.0	90.0	90.5	90.0	85.0	89.10	6.0		229.23	6.0	8.0	-2.0	-0.13
Leverkusen	91.0	89.8	91.3	90.5	86.0	89.70	2.0		230.04	2.0	4.0	-2.0	-0.25
SS Lazio	89.0	90.0	89.3	89.5	85.0	88.55	13.0		227.96	10.0	18.0	-8.0	-0.39
Everton	89.0	89.5	90.3	89.5	87.0	89.05	7.0		228.36	7.0	15.0	-8.0	-0.47
SL Benfica	92.0	89.8	90.3	91.0	85.0	89.60	3.0		229.71	4.0	16.0	-12.0	-0.69
Internazionale	91.0	90.5	90.5	91.0	86.0	89.80	1.0		230.62	1.0	7.0	-6.0	-0.71

 

Value added Season 6 D1.

So below is a table with the raw value added and positional value added based on the actual finish.

Porto had the best PVA finishing 6 places above expected , with Barcelona the best PVA for winnning the title.

Liverpool come 2nd in PVA and VA with Man City scoring highly in both.

At the other end. PSG were worse in both categories having a miserable season all round. Real Madrid and Tottenham also poor all round.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr		ETOT	Epr	Fin	Va	PVA
Barcelona	96.0	93.3	93.5	97.5	85.0	93.1	1.0		240.06	1.00	1	0.00	1.00
Liverpool	90.0	91.3	91.8	90.0	86.0	89.8	14.0		231.43	12.00	7	5.00	0.86
FC Porto	88.0	90.5	89.5	91.0	87.0	89.2	16.0		229.72	16.00	10	6.00	0.70
Manchester City	90.0	90.8	92.5	93.5	86.0	90.6	9.0		233.70	9.00	6	3.00	0.67
Bayern	91.0	93.3	93.5	96.5	87.0	92.3	3.0		239.05	2.00	2	0.00	0.50
Chelsea	93.0	92.8	92.5	97.5	85.0	92.2	4.0		238.54	3.00	3	0.00	0.33
Atlético Madrid	93.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	85.0	90.1	11.0		231.07	13.00	11	2.00	0.27
Juventus	95.0	91.5	93.8	95.0	88.0	92.7	2.0		237.09	4.00	4	0.00	0.25
Arsenal	91.0	91.5	92.8	93.5	88.0	91.4	5.0		234.97	5.00	5	0.00	0.20
Ajax	90.0	89.5	90.0	89.0	87.0	89.1	18.0		227.99	18.00	17	1.00	0.12
Villarreal CF	88.0	89.8	90.0	89.0	86.0	88.6	19.0		227.88	19.00	18	1.00	0.11
Sunderland	88.0	88.0	88.5	89.0	87.0	88.1	20.0		225.26	20.00	20	0.00	0.05
AS Roma	92.0	89.5	91.0	92.0	85.0	89.9	12.0		230.60	14.00	15	-1.00	0.00
Manchester United	94.0	91.3	93.3	92.0	86.0	91.3	6.0		234.20	7.00	8	-1.00	0.00
SSC Napoli	90.0	90.5	92.0	91.0	86.0	89.9	13.0		231.49	11.00	12	-1.00	0.00
Wolfsburg	88.0	90.0	90.5	91.5	86.0	89.2	17.0		230.09	15.00	16	-1.00	0.00
VALENCIA CF	90.0	90.0	90.8	90.0	86.0	89.4	15.0		229.52	17.00	19	-2.00	-0.05
Tottenham Hotspur	91.0	91.3	91.5	91.5	87.0	90.5	10.0		232.48	10.00	13	-3.00	-0.15
Real Madrid	89.0	92.3	92.3	92.8	88.0	90.9	7.0		234.66	6.00	9	-3.00	-0.22
Paris Saint-Germain	89.0	91.3	92.8	93.0	87.0	90.6	8.0		234.04	8.00	14	-6.00	-0.36

Division 5 Season 6 stats and fact , still the only way is up.

Monaco should go up,  West Brom are rebuilding, what does the future hold for the foundation of the Top 100.

Monaco Twente and Espanyol sit head and shoulders above the opposition.  

The presence of Cech obviously biases the stats of Twente somewhat. The alternative system takes account of this, and sees them as 5th overall.

However it will be hard for most teams to get past such a high rated keeper.  Torino and Udinese have potent enough attacks, and that could be key in a division with weaker than average keepers if you exclude Cech.

The variation show maybe any team down to West Ham could get auto promotion , with Dnipro or Flamengo having a playoff chance.

With little to worry about other than the sack race lower down. West Brom are an unknown quantity, if they can rebuild then fine but can they give other teams a 9 ,12, or 15 point headstart, Augsburg potential the next weakest have had a decent start. 6 points in the bag is a premium in this league.

You need 87.2 average to survive D4 so that could be a target for the West Brom boss.  10 or more clubs have this , so any could aim for promotion.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr		ETOT	Epr
AS Monaco	88.0	88.3	90.3	90.0	86.0	88.50	1.0		227.20	1.0
RCD Espanyol	88.0	88.8	89.5	89.0	87.0	88.45	2.0		226.67	2.0
FC Twente	92.0	87.3	88.0	89.0	85.0	88.25	3.0		224.42	5.0
Torino	89.0	87.8	87.8	88.0	86.0	87.70	4.0		223.87	7.0
River Plate	88.0	88.8	87.8	88.0	85.0	87.50	5.0		224.63	3.0
Udinese Calcio	87.0	87.8	88.0	88.5	86.0	87.45	6.0		224.12	6.0
West Ham United	88.0	88.3	89.0	87.5	84.0	87.35	7.0		224.51	4.0
Lille OSC	89.0	87.0	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.30	8.0		222.83	12.0
Cologne	87.0	87.5	87.8	88.0	86.0	87.25	9.0		223.38	9.0
Club Brugge KV	88.0	87.3	88.0	87.5	85.0	87.15	10.0		222.97	11.0
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	88.0	87.0	87.3	87.5	86.0	87.15	11.0		222.34	15.0
Independiente	87.0	88.0	87.8	88.0	85.0	87.15	12.0		223.76	8.0
Flamengo	87.0	87.8	87.8	87.0	86.0	87.10	13.0		222.98	10.0
RSC Anderlecht	86.0	87.5	87.8	87.5	85.0	86.75	14.0		222.81	13.0
Rubin Kazan	88.0	86.8	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.75	15.0		221.48	17.0
Montpellier HSC	86.0	87.0	87.0	88.5	85.0	86.70	16.0		222.47	14.0
Bremen	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	85.0	86.70	17.0		221.94	16.0
Santos FC	87.0	86.0	87.8	87.0	85.0	86.55	18.0		221.11	18.0
Augsburg	88.0	85.5	87.5	87.0	82.0	86.00	19.0		220.20	19.0
West Bromwich Albion	87.0	83.0	84.0	87.0	77.0	83.60	20.0		214.67	20.0

Division 4  Season 6 stats and facts.  Twice a win a away from Division 2, will Leicester bounce back or do Celta Vigo have a cunning plan?

89 Keeper , 89 front line,  should be enough to push Leicester back from where they came, and early season form backs that up.  Basel  have much the same arrangement, but with a bit less depth , not such a good start for them , which they can't really afford as they may fade.  Lowest placed team Liege should finish 3rd on the main rankings,  although the alternate prediction system sees Olympiacos placing higher which is backed up early doors.

Looking up one division , you need around 87.3 to survive D3,  which bodes well for the majority of teams , showing the gap between D4 an D3 is perhaps not that large. The deviation shows any team down to Crystal Palace has a realistic play off shout.

Celta Vigo have a midfield heavy side, this pushes them higher up in the alternative ranking system, although it isn't helping much at the moment.

At the trap door end despite a good keeper, Zagreb are the weakest team in the league statistically. Dynamo Moscow and Bordeaux have some strength in depth, which could help them as the season goes on. Again the huge deviations in this division see any team up to Atalanta at threat of relegation, and with only half a point average difference between teams from Sau Paulo to Atalanta it is too tight to call. 

Malaga could be the type of team to put together a good cup run , should they wish, without changing their prospects in the league much.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr		ETOT	Epr
Leicester City	89.0	88.3	88.3	89.5	86.0	88.20	1.0		225.67	1.0
FC Basel	89.0	88.5	88.5	89.0	85.0	88.00	2.0		225.64	2.0
Standard Liège	88.0	87.3	88.3	89.0	87.0	87.90	3.0		224.35	5.0
Boca Juniors	88.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	87.80	4.0		224.28	8.0
Olympiacos	89.0	88.0	88.3	88.5	85.0	87.75	5.0		224.65	3.0
FK Partizan	88.0	88.3	88.3	87.0	87.0	87.70	6.0		224.05	9.0
H. Berlin	88.0	87.5	88.0	89.0	86.0	87.70	7.0		224.31	7.0
Atalanta BC	88.0	87.3	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.45	8.0		223.41	12.0
Stoke City	88.0	87.3	89.0	88.0	85.0	87.45	9.0		223.95	11.0
Celta Vigo	87.0	87.5	89.3	88.5	85.0	87.45	10.0		224.57	4.0
Crystal Palace	87.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.40	11.0		224.04	10.0
Feyenoord	88.0	87.5	87.8	87.5	86.0	87.35	12.0		223.17	15.0
Málaga CF	87.0	88.0	87.3	87.5	87.0	87.35	13.0		223.34	14.0
Levante UD	87.0	88.3	88.3	88.0	85.0	87.30	14.0		224.34	6.0
Dynamo Kyiv	87.0	88.0	88.5	86.5	86.0	87.20	15.0		223.40	13.0
Stuttgart	88.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	85.0	87.10	16.0		222.72	17.0
São Paulo FC	88.0	87.3	87.3	88.0	85.0	87.10	17.0		222.80	16.0
Dynamo Moskva	87.0	87.0	87.8	87.5	86.0	87.05	18.0		222.55	18.0
Girondins Bordeaux	87.0	87.0	87.3	88.0	86.0	87.05	19.0		222.55	19.0
Dinamo Zagreb	88.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.90	20.0		222.06	20.0

The mad world of Division 3, stats and facts season 6.

Will PSV live up to expectations this season ?

PSV and argueably Sevilla can put out the strongest starting 11, with Olympic Lyon not far behind. Again looking up 1 division PSV would be challenging for a play off space , so this should be a relative doddle for them.

Lyon and Sevilla have the most attacking options, but Sevilla have a weakness between the sticks, which never helps long term.

Injury free Celtic could also challenge for the top spot. With a wild variation in performance vs stats in D3 you could look down as far as St Etienne or even Marseille for the eventual winners or even to Besitkas or Villa for a playoff spot.

The experimental ranking system indeed shows that Marseille or Villa could be dark horses for a play off run.

To survive in D2 you need around 88.10 which would put the cut off between Newcastle and Celtic , lower than that and you will be rejoining your long lost friends.

At the relegation end Chievo , Galatasary and Cruziero look set for the drop.  Galatasary and Cruziero have a weak keeper, lack depth,  Chievo are desperately weak up top and could find reinforcements in the open market.

While the regular stats put Spatak in the 4th drop spot, the adjusted stats show that Swansea may be more likely to drop, which is backed up by the first couple of games.

I fancy Besitkas for a good cup run, if that is what takes their fancy.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr		ETOT	Epr
PSV	90.0	89.0	90.0	89.0	87.0	89.00	1.0		227.49	2.0
Hellas Verona	89.0	88.3	89.3	89.5	87.0	88.60	2.0		226.45	5.0
Olympique Lyonnais	90.0	88.5	89.0	90.0	85.0	88.50	3.0		226.74	3.0
Sevilla	88.0	89.5	90.0	90.0	85.0	88.50	4.0		228.16	1.0
Shakhtar Donetsk	90.0	88.0	88.3	88.0	87.0	88.25	5.0		224.69	8.0
Newcastle United	88.0	88.8	88.8	88.5	87.0	88.20	6.0		225.85	6.0
Celtic	88.0	89.0	89.3	89.0	85.0	88.05	7.0		226.52	4.0
AS Saint-Etienne	89.0	87.5	88.0	88.5	86.0	87.80	8.0		224.11	10.0
Olympique Marseille	87.0	88.3	89.0	88.5	86.0	87.75	9.0		225.28	7.0
AZ Alkmaar	89.0	87.3	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.65	10.0		223.53	16.0
Beşiktaş JK	87.0	87.0	88.8	88.5	87.0	87.65	11.0		223.98	11.0
Aston Villa	88.0	88.3	88.3	87.5	86.0	87.60	12.0		224.25	9.0
Swansea City	88.0	86.5	88.3	89.0	86.0	87.55	13.0		223.48	17.0
Hoffenheim	88.0	87.5	88.5	88.0	85.0	87.40	14.0		223.87	12.0
Lokomotiv Moskva	88.0	87.5	87.3	89.0	85.0	87.35	15.0		223.70	14.0
Hamburg	88.0	88.3	87.8	87.5	85.0	87.30	16.0		223.80	13.0
Spartak Moskva	87.0	87.8	88.0	88.0	85.0	87.15	17.0		223.67	15.0
Chievo Verona	88.0	87.3	88.8	86.0	85.0	87.00	18.0		222.49	19.0
Galatasaray SK	87.0	87.3	87.5	88.5	84.0	86.85	19.0		223.05	18.0
Cruzeiro	87.0	86.7	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.54	20.0		221.31	20.0

Season 6 Division 2 Stats and facts.

Inter Milan should dominate their Italian rivals in this division, with the strong German duo close behind.

Again , a quick note, none of this is my opinion or a reflection on any manager and their skill in making a team or running a team, just raw data crunched and spat out by excel.

It is always worth looking at the division above when considering , who could and who should be promoted. 

You will need around 89.4 to survive in D1. So realistically only the top 5 have what it takes, the rest if they get promoted , will in all probability get relegated again. 

That being said D2 is a slightly wilder place than D1 and there is always a bigger variation in results.

Inter are solid 90 throughout,  only Southampton can match that, but they have much less strength in depth.  Dortmund and Leverkeusen lay either side of their Portuguese rivals in Benfica, who can put out a stronger starting 11 if needed but lack in depth also.

Genoa have a potent attack and the alternative rating system shows them pushing for the playoff spot. 

Recall that with a SD of around 6 any team down to Lazio could push for a playoff spot and any team up to Schalke are at risk of relegation. 

The stats show that CSKA, Sassuolo and Athletic club making the return journey to D3 quicker than they would have liked.  Only Sampdoria from the promoted quartet seem to have a good enough squad to survive.  Fenerbache  who survived on goal difference last season may not be so lucky this year.

It seems to be getting harder and harder each year to survive in D2 with 46 points needed last season. 

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr		ETOT	Epr
Internazionale	91.0	90.5	90.5	91.0	86.0	89.80	1.0		230.62	1.0
Leverkusen	91.0	89.8	91.3	90.5	86.0	89.70	2.0		230.04	2.0
SL Benfica	92.0	89.8	90.3	91.0	85.0	89.60	3.0		229.71	4.0
Dortmund	89.0	89.5	91.5	90.5	87.0	89.50	4.0		229.84	3.0
Monchengladbach	90.0	89.3	90.0	91.5	86.0	89.35	5.0		229.25	5.0
Southampton	90.0	90.0	90.5	90.0	85.0	89.10	6.0		229.23	6.0
Everton	89.0	89.5	90.3	89.5	87.0	89.05	7.0		228.36	7.0
Zenit Saint Petersburg	91.0	88.8	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.95	8.0		226.70	13.0
ACF Fiorentina	89.0	88.8	90.5	89.5	87.0	88.95	9.0		227.78	12.0
AC Milan	89.0	89.5	89.5	89.5	87.0	88.90	10.0		227.87	11.0
Schalke	89.0	88.8	90.8	90.0	86.0	88.90	11.0		228.15	9.0
Genoa CFC	89.0	89.3	90.0	90.5	85.0	88.75	12.0		228.36	8.0
SS Lazio	89.0	90.0	89.3	89.5	85.0	88.55	13.0		227.96	10.0
Sampdoria	87.0	88.3	89.3	90.0	87.0	88.30	14.0		226.54	14.0
Sporting CP	88.0	88.0	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.20	15.0		225.59	16.0
SC Internacional	89.0	88.8	88.5	89.0	85.0	88.05	16.0		225.89	15.0
CSKA Moskva	89.0	88.3	88.0	89.0	86.0	88.05	17.0		225.18	18.0
Athletic Club	89.0	88.0	88.5	88.0	86.0	87.90	18.0		224.61	19.0
Sassuolo	88.0	88.3	88.8	89.0	85.0	87.80	19.0		225.44	17.0
Fenerbahçe SK	89.0	87.0	88.8	88.0	86.0	87.75	20.0		223.78	20.0

Division 1 Stats and facts.

Barcelona should top the table,  Juve to grab 2nd. Plus new experimental prediction.

Barcelona have the stongest starting selection but as last season lack depth which ultimately cost them the title.  Juve and Bayern are closely matched. Chelsea also adopt the Barca approach of strength but less depth.

Ultimately the standard deviation approach suggests that no team lower than PSG have any realistic hope for the title.

PSG and Real Madrid will be looking for a rapid increase in keeper rating and thus may finish much higher than suggested.

At the other end , it could be a season of suffering for the promoted Villareal , Sunderland and Wolfsburg. Ajax who narrowly avoided relegation are once again in the lowest 4 at the moment.

Any team up to Napoli must consider themselves relegation possibles , teams above Man City should be safe.

The last 2 columns on the table are a rating system based on the relative effect of GK, Def, Mid, ATT , Top18 .  This was calculated looking at the difference between predicted and real positions last year.

There isn't that much difference.  It does suggest Bayern are much closer to Barca than otherwise predicted  ETOt is the rating calculation, which I'm not going to explain yet , as it needs tweeking and may have to be done division by division. EPr is the experimental prediction.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr		ETOT	Epr
Barcelona	96.0	93.3	93.5	97.5	85.0	93.1	1.0		240.06	1.00
Juventus	95.0	91.5	93.8	95.0	88.0	92.7	2.0		237.09	4.00
Bayern	91.0	93.3	93.5	96.5	87.0	92.3	3.0		239.05	2.00
Chelsea	93.0	92.8	92.5	97.5	85.0	92.2	4.0		238.54	3.00
Arsenal	91.0	91.5	92.8	93.5	88.0	91.4	5.0		234.97	5.00
Manchester United	94.0	91.3	93.3	92.0	86.0	91.3	6.0		234.20	7.00
Real Madrid	89.0	92.3	92.3	92.8	88.0	90.9	7.0		234.66	6.00
Paris Saint-Germain	89.0	91.3	92.8	93.0	87.0	90.6	8.0		234.04	8.00
Manchester City	90.0	90.8	92.5	93.5	86.0	90.6	9.0		233.70	9.00
Tottenham Hotspur	91.0	91.3	91.5	91.5	87.0	90.5	10.0		232.48	10.00
Atlético Madrid	93.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	85.0	90.1	11.0		231.07	13.00
AS Roma	92.0	89.5	91.0	92.0	85.0	89.9	12.0		230.60	14.00
SSC Napoli	90.0	90.5	92.0	91.0	86.0	89.9	13.0		231.49	11.00
Liverpool	90.0	91.3	91.8	90.0	86.0	89.8	14.0		231.43	12.00
VALENCIA CF	90.0	90.0	90.8	90.0	86.0	89.4	15.0		229.52	17.00
FC Porto	88.0	90.5	89.5	91.0	87.0	89.2	16.0		229.72	16.00
Wolfsburg	88.0	90.0	90.5	91.5	86.0	89.2	17.0		230.09	15.00
Ajax	90.0	89.5	90.0	89.0	87.0	89.1	18.0		227.99	18.00
Villarreal CF	88.0	89.8	90.0	89.0	86.0	88.6	19.0		227.88	19.00
Sunderland	88.0	88.0	88.5	89.0	87.0	88.1	20.0		225.26	20.00

Value added, how varied are the 5 divisions.

What does standard deviation show.

For the less mathematically incline the standard deviation is a way of measuring the average difference from the mean, with big differences counting slightly more. 

Around 70% of teams will finish within 1SD of their finishing position , 95% of teams should finish within 2sd.

So lets say your predicted position was 10th, and the SD was 3

There would be a 70% chance of you finishing between 7 and 13 and a 95% chance you will finish between 4th - 16th, i.e. there is very little chance you should gain automatic relegation or promotion.

So looking at each division

Division 1: +/- 3.0

Division 2: +/- 6.6

Division 3: +/- 7.8

Division 4: +/- 7.0

Division 5: +/- 5.8

So what does this mean. Division 1 and Division 5 are the less varied in terms of performance.  For example if you are ranked 20th the chance is you will finish no higher than 17th and definitely no higher than 14th no matter what you do.

Why is this, well over 5 seasons the cream has risen to the top and the other stuff has stayed or sunk to it's true level. 

Division 3 remains the melting pot for the top 100,  better teams going up, worse teams going down, but hope for all.

The 8th placed team could well finish top in D3 ,the 20th placed team could finish 4th..

There is a strong arguement to use the standard deviation to work out true value added across all 5 divisions.  This perhaps put the relative performances of Napoli and Juventus in D1 into true perspective.

Division 5 season 5 value added.

The curse of the VA strikes again as the best VA team Flamengo fail in the playoffs. Great performance by Hertha Berlin and Malaga.

Moving from play off contenders to league winners bodes well for Hertha Berlin next season,  Malaga pulled off a similar trick to finish second and 2nd in PVA. Flamengo top at VA and 3rd at PVA failed to make the final push . 

 A good year also for WBA with a high VA of  +7

Levante gained that promotion spot , yet have a very low VA and PVA, will this cause them problems next season?

Ok so no relegation but -11 VA for Torino and - 10 for river plate , see them with the lowest VA and PVA. Independiente with -5 VA finish 18th, with play off contenders Cologne having a worse -7 VA

 

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
H. Berlin	88.0	88.3	87.7	88.5	86.0	87.7	5.0	1.0	4.0	5.00
Málaga CF	87.0	87.5	87.3	87.5	87.0	87.3	9.0	2.0	7.0	4.00
Flamengo	86.0	87.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.6	16.0	4.0	12.0	3.25
FK Partizan	88.0	88.0	87.5	87.0	86.0	87.3	8.0	3.0	5.0	2.00
West Bromwich Albion	87.0	86.5	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.5	18.0	11.0	7.0	0.73
Bremen	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.1	12.0	9.0	3.0	0.44
Montpellier HSC	87.0	87.7	87.0	88.5	86.0	87.2	10.0	8.0	2.0	0.38
Augsburg	88.0	85.5	87.3	86.5	85.0	86.5	19.0	15.0	4.0	0.33
Lille OSC	88.0	87.3	87.7	88.0	85.0	87.2	11.0	10.0	1.0	0.20
Club Brugge KV	87.0	86.5	87.7	87.0	85.0	86.6	15.0	14.0	1.0	0.14
Rubin Kazan	88.0	86.0	87.0	87.5	83.0	86.3	20.0	19.0	1.0	0.11
FC Twente	87.0	86.5	87.7	88.5	85.0	86.9	14.0	16.0	-2.0	-0.06
RSC Anderlecht	87.0	87.0	86.5	86.5	86.0	86.6	17.0	20.0	-3.0	-0.10
Independiente	87.0	87.7	87.7	88.0	85.0	87.1	13.0	18.0	-5.0	-0.22
Levante UD	88.0	88.3	88.5	89.5	85.0	87.9	4.0	7.0	-3.0	-0.29
West Ham United	88.0	88.3	89.0	88.5	86.0	88.0	3.0	6.0	-3.0	-0.33
RCD Espanyol	88.0	87.5	89.0	89.0	87.0	88.1	2.0	5.0	-3.0	-0.40
Cologne	89.0	87.3	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.6	6.0	13.0	-7.0	-0.46
River Plate	88.0	88.3	88.3	88.0	85.0	87.5	7.0	17.0	-10.0	-0.53
Torino	89.0	88.3	88.5	88.5	87.0	88.3	1.0	12.0	-11.0	-0.83

 

Division 4 season 5 value added

Perhaps some controversial positions here. Hoffenheim top the table , ahead of run away winners Celtic.

There are definite similarities with D3 here, with the exeception of Celtic who ran away with the league in most respects.

However Hoffenheim over came 5 potentially better sides to come 2nd and only 1pt short of Celtic in the end, so perhaps they should top the PVA table. Chievo likewise move from 12th to 3rd and also gain promotion.  Like D3 the team with the best VA failed to gain promotion from the playoffs , leaving Dynamo Kiev in D4 for another season.

 Dyanmo Moscow on +9 VA  another great achievement,.

 AS Monaco are worse for VA, PVA and quite rightly relegated to D5,  Olympiacos who failed in the playoff in 7th got the 2nd lowest PVA, Udinese on -11 VA also got relegated. 

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
Hoffenheim	88.0	88.3	87.3	88.0	86.0	87.5	9.0	2.0	7.0	4.00
Chievo Verona	87.0	88.3	88.3	87.0	86.0	87.3	12.0	3.0	9.0	3.33
Dynamo Kyiv	87.0	87.0	88.5	86.5	86.0	87.0	16.0	4.0	12.0	3.25
Celtic	88.0	89.0	88.5	89.0	87.0	88.3	3.0	1.0	2.0	3.00
Dynamo Moskva	87.0	87.5	87.3	87.0	84.0	86.6	19.0	10.0	9.0	1.00
Girondins Bordeaux	87.0	87.0	87.3	87.0	86.0	86.9	18.0	11.0	7.0	0.73
Stoke City	89.0	87.5	88.5	89.0	83.0	87.4	10.0	8.0	2.0	0.38
AZ Alkmaar	89.0	87.3	87.5	89.0	86.0	87.8	7.0	6.0	1.0	0.33
Dinamo Zagreb	88.0	87.0	87.3	87.5	85.0	87.0	17.0	14.0	3.0	0.29
Santos FC	86.0	87.0	87.3	87.5	84.0	86.4	20.0	18.0	2.0	0.17
Atalanta BC	88.0	86.7	87.7	88.0	86.0	87.3	13.0	13.0	0.0	0.08
Celta Vigo	88.0	88.7	89.7	90.0	85.0	88.3	4.0	5.0	-1.0	0.00
Stuttgart	88.0	87.3	87.5	87.5	86.0	87.3	14.0	16.0	-2.0	-0.06
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	87.0	87.0	87.7	87.0	87.0	87.1	15.0	20.0	-5.0	-0.20
Feyenoord	88.0	87.5	87.7	87.5	86.0	87.3	11.0	15.0	-4.0	-0.20
FC Basel	88.0	87.0	89.5	89.0	86.0	87.9	6.0	9.0	-3.0	-0.22
Standard Liège	88.0	88.0	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.2	5.0	12.0	-7.0	-0.50
Udinese Calcio	87.0	88.0	88.3	88.0	87.0	87.7	8.0	19.0	-11.0	-0.53
Olympiacos	90.0	88.0	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.6	2.0	7.0	-5.0	-0.57
AS Monaco	88.0	89.0	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.8	1.0	17.0	-16.0	-0.88

Division 4 Season 5 value added.

The two Moscow clubs top the charts, predicted 3rd place team Leicester -16VA

A don't think it is a shock to see CSKA top for PVA , narrowly ahead of Athletic club and Sampdoria who were also promoted.  Top raw VA went to Lokomotive ,who fell at the last hurdle. Notable performances by Besitkas, Galatasary and Marseille , keeping themselves out of harms way and with a small injection of talent heading in the right direction next season.

At the wrong end PSV get the lowest PVA, top side finishes 11th,  narrownly above predicted 2nd who came 16th Shaktar and the most inept performance was Leicester who predicted 3rd got -16VA and were then relegated.  Boca who should have challenged for the play off also got -10VA.

A much bigger spread in D3 than D1 or D2

	GK	Def	Mid	Att	Top18	Ave	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
CSKA Moskva	89	88.3	88	89	86	88.1	8	1	7	8.00
Sampdoria	88	87.5	87.8	88.5	86	87.6	11	3	8	3.00
Lokomotiv Moskva	88	88	88.3	89	84	87.5	14	4	10	2.75
Athletic Club	89	88.3	89	88	87	88.3	4	2	2	1.50
AS Saint-Etienne	89	88.3	87.5	88	87	88	9	5	4	1.00
Sassuolo	88	88	88	88.5	85	87.5	12	7	5	0.86
Hellas Verona	88	87.5	88.5	88	86	87.6	10	6	4	0.83
Galatasaray SK	87	87.3	88.5	88	85	87.2	16	10	6	0.70
Beşiktaş JK	87	86	88.3	89	85	87.1	18	12	6	0.58
Hamburg	87	87.5	89	88	86	87.5	13	9	4	0.56
Olympique Marseille	86	87.3	87.8	88	86	87	19	13	6	0.54
Cruzeiro	87	87.3	86.8	87	85	86.6	20	15	5	0.40
São Paulo FC	87	87.5	87.5	87.5	86	87.1	17	20	-3	-0.10
Crystal Palace	87	87	88.3	88	86	87.3	15	18	-3	-0.11
Aston Villa	88	88.7	88.5	89.5	86	88.1	5	8	-3	-0.25
Newcastle United	88	88	89.7	89	86	88.1	6	14	-8	-0.50
Boca Juniors	90	88.3	88.3	88	86	88.1	7	17	-10	-0.53
Leicester City	88	88.8	89.7	90.5	86	88.6	3	19	-16	-0.79
Shakhtar Donetsk	90	89	88.5	89.5	87	88.8	2	16	-14	-0.81
PSV	91	89	89.5	89	87	89.1	1	11	-10	-0.82

Division 2 Season 5 Value added , Villareal storm the barricades. Southampton sink into the solent.

+15 PVA and +14 VA, a fantastic performance by Villareal. This somewhat eclipses the +10 VA of Sunderland ,  +9 VA of Internacional and + 7 of Genoa.

Just goes to show the manager makes the differences, at least in division 2. Interestingly it is Genoa and Sunderland and not the more favoured Inter and Wolfsburg who made it to the playoff.

Southampton who should have easily got into the playoffs but finished 11th get the wooden spoon,  Sevilla and Schalke sit just above them , with relegated Sevilla actually having the worse VA.

Upto you to decide is it worse coming 11th when you should have been promoted or coming 20th when you should have come 11th. However since only 6 points seperated 17th to 10th , we can conclude the it is the former rather than the after.

	GK	Def	Mid	Att	Top18	Ave	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
Villarreal CF	88	89.7	88.5	88.5	87	88.3	15	1	14	15.00
Sunderland	88	88.3	88.3	89	87	88.1	16	6	10	1.83
Genoa CFC	89	88	90.3	89.5	85	88.4	14	7	7	1.14
SC Internacional	88	88.3	87.7	87.5	86	87.9	18	9	9	1.11
Internazionale	91	89.7	90.5	88.5	85	88.9	7	4	3	1.00
Wolfsburg	88	89	91	92	85	89	5	3	2	1.00
SL Benfica	88	88.8	90.3	90.5	86	88.7	10	8	2	0.38
Swansea City	88	87.3	88	89	86	87.7	19	17	2	0.18
Spartak Moskva	88	87.7	88.5	88.5	85	87.5	20	18	2	0.17
Atlético Madrid	92	90.3	90.3	90.5	87	90	1	2	-1	0.00
Leverkusen	91	89.7	90.5	89	86	89.2	4	5	-1	0.00
Olympique Lyonnais	88	88.7	88.3	89.5	86	88.1	17	19	-2	-0.05
SPORTING CP	88	88	88.7	89.5	87	88.6	12	14	-2	-0.07
SS Lazio	89	89.3	90.3	89	87	88.9	8	10	-2	-0.10
Fenerbahçe SK	89	87	89	90	87	88.4	13	16	-3	-0.13
ACF Fiorentina	89	88	89.7	89.5	87	88.6	11	15	-4	-0.20
Zenit	91	89	88.5	89.5	87	89	6	12	-6	-0.42
Sevilla	88	89.5	90.3	89.5	87	88.9	9	20	-11	-0.50
Schalke	89	90	90.7	91	86	89.3	3	13	-10	-0.69
Southampton	90	90.5	90.5	90.5	87	89.7	2	11	-9	-0.73

Bayern top the PVA table with Napoli having the best raw score.

O.K. so this year I have sorted according to positional value added. This is the value added +1 / finishing position. 

The idea is that finishing higher up gets you more positive points.

So Bayern who finished top , with a raw VA of +2 get a PVA of +3. I thinking most would agree that the 3rd ranked team finishing top deserve the higest rating,
This puts Napoli with the highest raw score of + 8 in second spot, a fantastic performance  , 8 places higher than their predicted position.
Other notable performances came from Porto with +5 and Ajax +4 , Chelsea also get a mention for the 3rd PVA spot.

At the wrong end Juve on -6 raw score and -0.5 PVA get the wooden spoon,  Barca's fall from grace leaves them 2nd from the end.  Dortmund, Roma and Man City also fall at the end of the table.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
Bayern	92.0	92.5	93.5	96.5	88.0	92.5	3	1	2	3.00
SSC Napoli	90.0	90.5	91.0	91.5	85.0	89.6	15	7	8	1.29
Chelsea	93.0	91.3	92.3	93.0	85.0	90.9	6	4	2	0.75
FC Porto	90.0	90.3	89.5	91.5	86.0	89.5	16	11	5	0.55
Real Madrid	92.0	93.8	93.5	97.0	89.0	93.1	2	2	0	0.50
Paris Saint-Germain	89.0	91.3	92.5	94.5	85.0	90.5	8	6	2	0.50
Ajax	90.0	90.0	89.5	89.0	87.0	89.1	19	15	4	0.33
AC Milan	89.0	89.7	90.5	89.0	86.0	88.8	20	17	3	0.24
Manchester United	94.0	91.3	92.3	93.0	87.0	91.5	5	5	0	0.20
Tottenham Hotspur	91.0	90.7	92.5	90.0	87.0	90.2	9	9	0	0.11
Valencia CF	90.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	88.0	90.1	13	13	0	0.08
Liverpool	90.0	91.0	91.0	93.0	86.0	90.2	11	12	-1	0.00
Everton	89.0	89.5	91.0	89.5	87.0	89.2	18	19	-1	0.00
Arsenal	90.0	91.8	91.5	93.0	88.0	90.9	7	8	-1	0.00
Monchengladbach	90.0	89.0	90.3	91.0	86.0	89.3	17	20	-3	-0.10
Dortmund	89.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	88.0	89.9	14	18	-4	-0.17
AS Roma	92.0	90.0	91.0	91.0	87.0	90.2	12	16	-4	-0.19
Manchester City	89.0	89.5	91.7	94.0	87.0	90.2	10	14	-4	-0.21
Barcelona	96.0	94.0	94.3	97.5	85.0	93.4	1	3	-2	-0.33
Juventus	94.0	92.3	92.3	94.5	89.0	92.4	4	10	-6	-0.50

50% of D5 sides are still in or have landed back in D5 after 5 seasons.  Who will do better than the 50% who remain this season.

The current standings are a tale of 4 teams. West Ham and Espanyol who are living up to expectations at the top of the league , and Levant or Torino who are doing less well.

The top 4 in D5 should be able to cope 2 divisions higher and therefore should seek to make rapid progress.  Torino are the best equiped statistically and as the season progresses , like Levante can only improve.

But they have given West Ham a huge lead and other than lacking a little depth they are a strong side. Espanyol have more depth but a weaker back line, perhaps where the 4 point gap the Hammers have has come from.

Hertha Berlin, Cologne and River Plate are doing well as expected, any or all could challenge for the final automatic place.  Augsburg and Kazan are over performing at the moment.  Kazan have no depth and Augsburg a weak defense so it will interesting to see how they cope in the long term. The cut off for D4 is around 87 , so anyone down to Independiente could hope for a playoff spot.

With no relegation spot ,only the sack race is a problem for thw worse 2 teams.

In theory that should be Kazan and Augsburg but they already have a good number of points.  West Brom and Anderlecht will therefore have to pull something out of the fire to avoid that spot, with argueably better teams below them.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Fin
Torino	89.0	88.3	88.5	88.5	87.0	88.3	1.0
RCD Espanyol	88.0	87.5	89.0	89.0	87.0	88.1	2.0
West Ham United	88.0	88.3	89.0	88.5	86.0	88.0	3.0
Levante UD	88.0	88.3	88.5	89.5	85.0	87.9	4.0
H. Berlin	88.0	88.3	87.7	88.5	86.0	87.7	5.0
Cologne	89.0	87.3	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.6	6.0
River Plate	88.0	88.3	88.3	88.0	85.0	87.5	7.0
FK Partizan	88.0	88.0	87.5	87.0	86.0	87.3	8.0
Málaga CF	87.0	87.5	87.3	87.5	87.0	87.3	9.0
Montpellier HSC	87.0	87.7	87.0	88.5	86.0	87.2	10.0
Lille OSC	88.0	87.3	87.7	88.0	85.0	87.2	11.0
Bremen	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.1	12.0
Independiente	87.0	87.7	87.7	88.0	85.0	87.1	13.0
FC Twente	87.0	86.5	87.7	88.5	85.0	86.9	14.0
Club Brugge KV	87.0	86.5	87.7	87.0	85.0	86.6	15.0
Flamengo	86.0	87.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.6	16.0
RSC Anderlecht	87.0	87.0	86.5	86.5	86.0	86.6	17.0
West Bromwich Albion	87.0	86.5	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.5	18.0
Augsburg	88.0	85.5	87.3	86.5	85.0	86.5	19.0
Rubin Kazan	88.0	86.0	87.0	87.5	83.0	86.3	20.0

The Dynamo of the league or a flat battery waiting to be charged. 

 

Monaco are statistically the best team in the league by some way, but they are plagued by constant underperformance.  A somewhat better start this year could see them in more lofty climbs.  Olympiacos with their excellent keeper should finish 2nd but will their love of one particular position be their un doing.  Celta Vigo may well have a starting 11 to match Monaco but lack depth , off to a good start but can they hold it together. 

You will need around 87.2 to survive in D3 , the sorting hat hasn't quite worked it's magic down this far into the leagues, meaning all the teams down to Stuttgart could challenge for an automatic or even play off spot. It really is tight in D4 with very little to split the chasing pack.  Stoke seem to be going for a promotion or relagation strategy , or maybe the team isn't fully prepared yet with more players coming in .  

Of the relegation candidates, they all have their easy to spot flaws.

Kiev have a weak attack,  Zagreb a weak midfield and depth,  Bordeaux a poor keeper / defence combo.  Dynamo Moscow lack depth,  Santos much the worse keeper.  All are in  the lower reaches of the league at the moment, can they escape the chop. Dnipro could go for a good cup run with their squad 

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Fin
AS Monaco	88.0	89.0	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.8	1.0
Olympiacos	90.0	88.0	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.6	2.0
Celtic	88.0	89.0	88.5	89.0	87.0	88.3	3.0
Celta Vigo	88.0	88.7	89.7	90.0	85.0	88.3	4.0
Standard Liège	88.0	88.0	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.2	5.0
FC Basel	88.0	87.0	89.5	89.0	86.0	87.9	6.0
AZ Alkmaar	89.0	87.3	87.5	89.0	86.0	87.8	7.0
Udinese Calcio	87.0	88.0	88.3	88.0	87.0	87.7	8.0
Hoffenheim	88.0	88.3	87.3	88.0	86.0	87.5	9.0
Stoke City	89.0	87.5	88.5	89.0	83.0	87.4	10.0
Feyenoord	88.0	87.5	87.7	87.5	86.0	87.3	11.0
Chievo Verona	87.0	88.3	88.3	87.0	86.0	87.3	12.0
Atalanta BC	88.0	86.7	87.7	88.0	86.0	87.3	13.0
Stuttgart	88.0	87.3	87.5	87.5	86.0	87.3	14.0
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	87.0	87.0	87.7	87.0	87.0	87.1	15.0
Dynamo Kyiv	87.0	87.0	88.5	86.5	86.0	87.0	16.0
Dinamo Zagreb	88.0	87.0	87.3	87.5	85.0	87.0	17.0
Girondins Bordeaux	87.0	87.0	87.3	87.0	86.0	86.9	18.0
Dynamo Moskva	87.0	87.5	87.3	87.0	84.0	86.6	19.0
Santos FC	86.0	87.0	87.3	87.5	84.0	86.4	20.0

A couple of mighty team languish in the depths of division 3, will they emerge to haunt of of the top 100 or vanish without a trace.

Why are PSV not top of the league, well regular underperformance is the answer.

A team with a 91 keeper and above 89 should easily finish in the top 4. Shaktar are performing as they should and another 90 rated keeper should see them into D2 this year. Leicester another underperforming outfit ,also struggling again. They have the best attack in D3, while they are sure to be safe from relegation they should flourish against 88 rated keepers.

You probably need above 88 to survive D2 so you can't go down that far any more to look at playoff contenders, perhaps as far as Saint - Etienne with their strong defence or even Sassuolo if they overcome the lack of depth.

At the wrong end Cruziero who should be last are top. Again it could be lack of depth that under rates them but will also cost long term.  Marseille could well be in worse shape , with the worse keeper and apart from the top18 the worse over all rating.  The 2 Turkish teams could also end up going the wrong way but any team up as far as Lokomotive with their weak depth are at risk

	GK	Def	Mid	Att	Top18	Ave	Finish
PSV	91	89	89.5	89	87	89.1	1
Shakhtar Donetsk	90	89	88.5	89.5	87	88.8	2
Leicester City	88	88.8	89.7	90.5	86	88.6	3
Athletic Club	89	88.3	89	88	87	88.26	4
Aston Villa	88	88.7	88.5	89.5	86	88.14	5
Newcastle United	88	88	89.7	89	86	88.14	6
Boca Juniors	90	88.3	88.3	88	86	88.12	7
CSKA Moskva	89	88.3	88	89	86	88.06	8
AS Saint-Etienne	89	88.3	87.5	88	87	87.96	9
Hellas Verona	88	87.5	88.5	88	86	87.6	10
Sampdoria	88	87.5	87.8	88.5	86	87.56	11
Sassuolo	88	88	88	88.5	85	87.5	12
Hamburg	87	87.5	89	88	86	87.5	13
Lokomotiv Moskva	88	88	88.3	89	84	87.46	14
Crystal Palace	87	87	88.3	88	86	87.26	15
Galatasaray SK	87	87.3	88.5	88	85	87.16	16
São Paulo FC	87	87.5	87.5	87.5	86	87.1	17
Beşiktaş JK	87	86	88.3	89	85	87.06	18
Olympique Marseille	86	87.3	87.8	88	86	87.02	19
Cruzeiro	87	87.3	86.8	87	85	86.62	20