Time to look at Division 2 internal and external deals in Season 17 - and it doesnt make good reading - in fact they had the lowest number of total deals completed when adding up the stats.

A total of 100 deals across the 20 clubs with an average of 5 per club. In fact an incredible 4 teams didnt make one internal deal all season - do they need to deal or are their teams good enough already? Andrew Bailey (774) will admit that no one wanted to deal with Dnipro - but what of RJ Alston (743), Mark Phelps (725) or Liam Pigott (676) would they be more suited to empty gameworlds with less active managers? In Mark's case his Flamengo project is unique in SM Worlds from my experience - certainly one over such a long period anyway.

Externally Santos under Josh McMillan (808) and his predecessor were very busy, Adam (770) and Ash L (500) too were quite lively both externally and internally.

So the big question is does transfer activity = success ? We ranked the sides by the number of internal deals and then put their final league positions next to them? The result?

Some wild results in division 5 with rebuilds a plenty.

+14 VA for Malaga and +8 PVA for Koln.

Koln are worthy winners of D5 and came in 7 places above expected.  They just lead fellow promoted team Malaga who may have had the performance of the year.  Independiente had +10 VA in 9^th from 19^th ,with playoff Marseille on +6 VA. Twente also promoted in 2^nd with a a great +1.5 PVA.

The predicted top 5 with the exception of  Twente were a big flop, Inter and Rubin made the playoffs so all could be well. Boca , Spartak and Athletic club have nothing to show this season in the league and should aim for much more next year.

Swans fly high in D4 with Besitkas a Turkish Delight.

Two promoted teams lead the stats. Swansea always a promotion favourite over achieved and got top spot in the league and  the stats.  Besitkas have the highest VA on + 7 , just above Bordeaux on +6 who just miss out on the playoffs. A great performance by  Lazio and West Ham , shown up much more on the stats than the mid table positions.

6 of the top 8 teams really failed to deliver.  Celta promoted as expected shouldn’t be worried. Leicester, Dynamo and Sao Paulo have the playoffs to fight out.  Cruziero miss out though on the playoffs and have the lowest PVA just better than joint lowest VA Chievo who could argue they were better off than Sunderland also on -5 who were relegated.

Udinese promoted in second have the highest PVA with Zenit and Celtic showing great VA.

As expected division 3 shows more variance than D1 or 2.  Udinese expected the playoffs but got 2^nd place and promotion.  They just beat Celtic who had the 2^nd best VA of +8, with +11 VA Zenit just missing out on a playoff spot.  Borussia Monchengladbach a +3 overperformance worth a mention but Hamburg showed true grit +8 VA and a playoff spot.  West Brom did all they could and should be proud of their promotion.

Disappointment for Roma on -8 VA and more so for Palace who are relegated also 8 places below expected.   Galatsaray on -6 VA will be looking for more next season.  Disappointing seasons for Sampdoria and Wolfsburg . Only 2 of the 4 expected teams were relegated although 3 of the lower 5 did go down.

Spurs lead the stats with Dnipro having +13 VA.

A much greater level of over and underperformance in division 2.

Spurs finish 7 places higher than expected and finish 2^nd in the real table but just pip champs Villa in the stats.  Dnipro make the playoffs not bad for a relegation favourite but that has been said too often about them.  Valencia clinch the 3^rd auto spot  and they just lead the mighty Augsburg in the stats table who just missed out on  the play-offs. Honourable mentions also to Southampton and Man Utd who showed considerable improvement this season.

It all went horribly wrong for Anderlecht and to some extent Genoa , but they at least could redeem all with a play-off win -13 and -4 VA respectively. Liverpool , Flamengo and Santos also failed to live up to expectations. 3 out of 4 teams expected to drop in the top 2 divisions did so.

Chelsea champions and stop of the stats.  Espanyol and Real Madrid make great progress.

A few notes. Value added is literally how many places above the expected position a club finishes. PVA or positional value added is the value added +1  divided by the finishing position, so a high position counts more.

Chelsea are well deserved champions , they pushed 1 place above the predicted level and lead the stats.  Espanyol have the highest value added , in the top 6 and 8 places higher than expected .  Madird and Dortmund showed some real improvement with most of the rest of the division close to what would have been expected.

The only exception to this is Arsenal who finish in the lower half of the table on -7 VA and -0.5 PVA.

Rubin and Inter lead the pack is defence the best form of attack in division 5.

Both the leading clubs have a good keeper and defence combo and a fairly strong attack. Athletic club also have a strong keeper and stronger attack in the top and tail approach.   Twente and Spartak have 87 rated keepers but this is standard in D5, Spartak have a far weaker defence than most but will be reliant on the midfield to shield the back line and the strikers to push the goals in.

Boca will fancy  their chances of at least a play off spot with a strong keeper , attacker pair.

217 is the cut off for relegation in D4 so a dozen or more teams could compete for promotion, Atalanta may well have a good mix for that in my view.

Obviously no relegation , just the sack race to avoid. Shaktar are very much a work in progress.  They are very much an easy meal for most teams,  Independiente just need to get the defence together.  Torino rebuild almost there . Malaga just need to polish up the midfield a little.

Division 5 will probably be a little easier to exit from this season it is about half a point weaker mainly due to Swansea & Sao Paulo’s promotion leaving no teams rated above 220.

Five teams in the fight for the title in Division 4.

It seems that Division 4 will have at least 2 really disappointed teams that most years would have grabbed an automatic place but will now be in the playoffs at best . Celta Vigo have a strong attack and a good midfield. With a competent back line , at least by D4 standards they should gain promotion.  Sao Paulo a little less attacking but more defensive, should score less but concede less than Celta so should match them all the way.  Swansea just a fraction lower than Sao Paulo, better in midfield but less potent up top, will need to make the most of the increased chances.  Leicester ,pretty much like Celta Vigo should make up the top 4.  Dynamo Moscow have a major weakness in goal, especially against these and other potent attacks.

This really only leaves two play off spots.  Lille top and tail their team and must be favourites to upset the top 5 if anyone does,  Cruziero are a similar build with CSKA the other playoff possible having a more balanced approach.

218 could be the survival stakes in D3 so any team down to Chievo could make a run for the play off spot and survive the next season and they look like a team who could make a good performance in the cup this year.

At the wrong end of the table , the cut off for relegation is around 217 at the moment.  It is hard to see Lazio surviving with a weak defence and attack.  Basel need to strengthen the midfield and West Ham their defence.  PSV should be ok if they avoid injuires. Lokomotiv must use their attacking line effectively as they will ship goals at the other end.

Division 4 is half a point stronger this season, maybe a little skewed by the top 5 which show the challenge anyone outside that group has getting into automatic or even play off spots.

Will West Brom’s strike force carry them to the title?

A huge reliance on a potent strike force has worked well in the past in D3 and West Brom have all the tools to pull off that trick.   They sit well above Zagreb the next best attacking side and Sassulo who pack the back line better than most. They probably should be the top 3 .  The play off teams should be  Roma who lack depth so will need a good start and a similar issue could affect Wolfsburg while both teams are an attacking force.  Udinese and Hoffenheim have more coverage and may have to wait a game or two to make an impact.

To survive in D2 you will need a rating of 221, so other than the top 3 , the rest will struggle if they go up.  Feyenoord  and Fenernahce are an interesting prospect ,strong keeper and attack but lacking elsewhere.  Galatasaray could be consistent all season and should put in a good cup run.

Last season a rating of 218 or less got you relegated no questions asked.  This leaves Newcastle ,Sevilla, Zenit and Napoli in serious trouble unless they can pull off a Dnipro.  Zenit really just need a slightly better attacker,  Napoli have much more work to do in midfield and defence.  Sevilla an attacker could help and Newcastle maybe a better Keeper and defence.

Compared to last season division 3 is half a point weaker across the board. This could lead to a larger selection of playoff teams than usual but won’t really save the weaker teams as even 217.5 is the already the level of the lowest 4 teams with the next worst .7 above them.

Genoa certain to return to Division 1? What about the rest

Genoa are by rights a mid table D1 side and while nothing is guaranteed they lead every important stat except defence.

There are then maybe 4 other teams in for a good shout at the remaining 2 automatic places.  Anderlecht have huge depth and if Genoa falter are the only team who could challenge them.   Villa potent up top and in midfield but lacking depth.  Ajax , surely a keeper away from a great team and Valencia who again maybe a little weak in defence but are more than solid elsewhere.

Then doing the maths that leaves 2 free playoff spots.  Everton , Leverkeusen, Liverpool and Tottenham should be favoured teams.  Everton weaker at the back, Leverkeusen maybe need a star forward. Liverpool will they get enough possession and Spurs a good all rounder team.

The cut off to survive division 1 is around 224, so realistically it would probably be unwise for any other team to push for promotion without drastically improving first.

At the lower end it was pretty much set in stone 219.5 or less last season meant a massive risk of relegation.  Only 3 teams sit close to that Dnipro, the galant over performers will be out classed in all departments, River Plate surely an 87 keeper will not be enough without the back up of possession or a scoring force.  Monaco seem to be a rating or more below 17^th spot.

That high cut off now could drag Santos or Schalke into the mix with even Man Utd, PSG, Southampton and Sporting needed to keep an eye on what is going on should they slip into danger.

As for a cup run Anderlecht would have a chance, as could PSG or Schalke.

Division 2 is substantially stronger than last season and will be a tough challenge for all concerned.