Division 1 Season 9 stats and facts. Usual suspects lead the stats, things look tough for some of the promoted sides.

First of all , this is a purely statistical look at the ratings within the league. I have to use human input to work out which players are likely to be picked and where which is difficult at times. It is sorted using the relative importance of each position which was calculated using data from the first 4 seasons.

Barcelona are top in most stats , best keeper, midfield and attack, should be a walk in the park, only first is good enough, although they do lack depth. Bayern could challenge them if Barca suffer injuries at crucial times,  as Chelsea or Juve,

Other interesting prospects are Real Madrid, who are strong in all positions except attack ,  Arsenal similar except for defence and Tottenham except in goal. Will these sides look for a deal to be done ?

Genoa and Porto have got off to a great start , pick up the early points and the pressure is off in some respect.

Schalke especially look to have their work cut out, although statistically only 1 place better SC had no problems surviving the chop last season. For me Benfica have a huge hill to climb, most clubs will see the chance to fill their boots against a week keeper and defence.

Bremen 2nd candidate for team of the year. +14VA +15PVA, Feyenord also +10 with promoted Montpellier +7.

Division 5 is always a mad bad world.

Bremen always had a good keeper for the division and a strong midfield, but a few crafty late season buys pushed him over the line.

West Brom -6/-0.71 and more so  West Ham -13/-0.75  were crushingly disappointing, which helped but Santos in 2nd , Montpellier pushed them hard with 4 pts separating the top 6.

Feyenord on +10 improved as the season went on , Twente were unlucky to fail in the playoffs.

Other than those mentioned, Independient on -7 and River Plate on -14 VA are notable in their below par performance. 

Basel top of stats in D4, Stoke get the best VA,  Atalanta, Boca and Partizan disappoint their fans.

Most people thought Monaco were odds on favourites to win D4 including me, while they came 2nd , Basel stormed to victory.  Stoke got a great +8 VA, with 2nd spot Levante gettng a creditable + 5, with Torino matching them .

Such was the accuracy of the stats at the wrong end with the lowest 3 correctly positioned and AZ just one place out in 17th . Boca just escaped in 16th with -7 VA , the same Partizan in 13th.  This left playoff possible Atalanta in the lowest VA spot.

Liege and Hellas battled it out for the title and for the stats in D3, Saint Etienne,  Leicester and Southampton fail to perform.

Liege no one would argue were a cut above in D3 with a +34 GD almost a goal a game better than their opponents.

They get the PVA award but Hellas in 2nd push them close at +2.  Sao Paulo pushed themselves into the playoffs and a high stats finish, but this proved to be a game too far as it did for +8 VA Fenerbache. 

At the wrong end Southampton , clear promotion candidates got -12 VA and -0.79 PVA a miserable performance all round,  but this was eclipsed by ST Etiennes fall from grace finishing last and -8 VA. Leicester narrowly avoided the chop on -8 VA in 16th.

5 of the top 6 were accurately predicted as were 3/4 relegated teams.

Ajax deserved champions of D2,  Zenit and Galatasaray get an honourable mention . Milan and Valencia the biggest dissapointments.

Promoted as champions , the well deserved Ajax team overcame close rivals Atletico and Genoa , who despite a medicore VA ,did what it took to go up. Zenit and Galatasaray should have been in the relegation zone but avoided the drop this season. 

Valencia and Milan have the lowest PVA , Milan even failing in the playoffs.  Berlin were much lower than expected.

5 of the teams in the top 6 were those predicted to be and 2 teams expected to be relegated escaped but 2 only just.

SC Internacional or Bayern the true champs of D1?

Arsenal and Barcelona well below expectations.

First of all the health warning.

This is all based on number crunching, it take no accounts of trading, tactics, how the team was when you had it etc.

VA = difference between where you finished and where you should have done.

PVA takes into account the importance of finishing higher up and modifies the total.

Bayern have the highest PVA at +2 with their first spot all but guaranting them this award . SC Internacional who many would have seen as relegation certainties got the best VA of +12 , with Porto doing well at + 4 in 8th.

The biggest negative scores went to Arsenal at -10 and -0.6 with their narrow squeek over the relegation line.

Leverkeusen should be the post dissapointed with a mid pace team relegated. Everton, Seville, Tottenham rele

gated as predicted.

Division 5 stats and fact. Season 8.

Bremen and Dynamo defy the odds. Baggies and Santos favourites. 

For obvious reasons there is a distinct tail off in ratings when you hit D5.

There is no through traffic, mainly down and then up again, at least in theory.

West Brom are lucky to have a 90 rated keeper in all respects , after his mega generous rise in the ratings. Except West Ham they need fear no attack. They lack any real depth so maybe no cup run, will fitness be an issue?

Santos have a great keeper and as good a midfield as West Brom and with more depth could hope for a late run.

Independiente could secure their future with a better keeper, considering there are 87 rated keepers at externals which is why they sit 12th at the moment.

Bruge are playing to form at the moment and with a well balanced squad they could well get into the playoffs this season.

To survive D4 you need 218 + points so we need to draw the line at Bruge unless we are looking at a return to sender promotee this season.

Bremen are skilfully using their strong midfield at the moment to thwart others but will they be a victim of their own success early doors.

At the wrong end , no relegation, just the sack race to avoid. Terrible start for River Plate and Malaga who should sit higher. They will move up so should Besitkas , Feyenord and Bordeaux find it tough as predicted it could be anyone of around 8 teams in the mix. 

Having said that unlike the other divisions, the predicter works less well here. 

Division 4 season 8  stats and facts.

Monaco to go up , should do!  Espanyol should lead rest of pack.

Monaco are the best team in Division 4 and would also be equally highly ranked in Division 3. Anything other than a convincing title performance would be calculated by all as an abject failing by a team that for some reason stuggles to perform more often than not.

Espanyol also have a well balanced side with good depth , they would also fancy a top 3 finish in the division above so should finish 2nd.

Celta in 3rd are really the only top rated team performing well at the moment, perhaps lacking the depth of the other 2 and an older starting eleven perhaps will cost them in the end . 

To survive in D3 you need around 218 rating points , so almost the entire D4 line up with the exception of the lowest 4 rated could survive , to be in with a chance of an additional promotion you would need around 220 points which bodes well for any team down to Partizan. 

Partizan and Villa could well be strongest in the cup, although each has suffered one early exit. 

Olympiacos are an interesting prospect a good keeper and attack. Long ball game perhaps as a midfield battle won't succeed.

Great starts by Basel and Levante who are rated in the top 10 but are rightly over performing at the moment.

At the wrong end it will be a struggle. Last year the same system got 3/4 relegated team and no team outside the lowest 6 was relegated.

So it looks bad for Cruziero and Zagreb although fair enough to Zagreb it looked that way last season and they were the only teams in the lowest 4 to make it.

Spartak also lack depth , Kiev on the other hand may have sufficient in the tank to pull clear in the 2nd half of the season.  

Division 3 season 8 stats and facts. Current top 8 have 7/8 best attacking lines in D3 enough said or is there and alternative.

Well yes!. The top 5 are also 5 out of the 7 highest ranked teams and the top 8 only has only one side ranked lower than 9 and nothing less than 11th.

Andelecht sit a cut above the rest statistically. Strong at the back strong in defence , good midfield.

Southampton have a similar squad but with a little more depth and must look to make a long term challenge as injuries could hit home to Anderlecht. Liege have a powerful midfield and sit 3rd at the moment. CSKA also have a squad with few weaknesses at D3 level.  Hellas in 4th also use the midfield to strangle other teams . You will need 220 to survive in D2 so the current top 8 must be the favourites for promotion, others have work to , as if promoted they will surely get relegated the next season.

Last season the top 3 sides all had a rating above 220 so that seems to be the cut off. 

I haven't forgotten the current worthy leaders ST Etienne, shows what a potent attack can achieve, no other real strength , they are a one trick team, bnt if that trick works why not?

In addition Dynamo Kiev possible relegation bound have also got off to a good start.

As for relegation in general you are looking at 217 - 218.6 level , that means there are a broad range of teams at threat of the drop.  

At least at the moment it looks like a long season for Chievo, PSV and Lyon have the strength to pull themselves away,  this will also drop Fenerbarche and Shaktar into the lower reaches. 

Division 2 season 8 stats and facts.

2 Italian teams lead the pack and 2 more are set to be relegated.

Official health warning.

This is a purely statistical analysis of the teams in division 2.  While I may add a comment or two to make a good read, this in no way reflects on the managerial or squad building ability of any manager.

AC Milan are a point and a half above any other team, they could easily finish mid table in division 1. They have a higher rating than any promoted D2 or relegated D1 team last season. Should be a walk in the park or would be if it were not for Genoa.

Genoa with Salah and Firmino a little weaker at the back than AC but much stronger up top.  These must be the top 2 . 

A rating of around 223 will be needed to survive D1 so any team from Valencia up could challenge for promotion , Ajax with their strong keeper could be favourites , while Moenchengladbach who lack depth could disappoint, with Benfica also needing to reinforce between the sticks.

Zenit could be a great cup side , with their keeper backing up the capable reserve team.

 With the exception of Southampton the relegated teams had a rating of 220 or less. The relegation scrap this year should be more intense with 6 or more teams at real risk of the drop.

Celtic currently well over performing must be the favourites. Little back up , weak keeper at the moment, most teams will fancy their chances,  although some could risk a weakened side which would be a mistake. 

Two of my old sides sit statistically in the lower 4 ,  both managers have a big job to do with Sporting looking especially vunerable, although they have got off to fair starts.

Top 3 closer than previous years,  Everton off to a great start.

It's always hard to bet against any team that can put out an average of 95 in attack and no main stat less than 93.  So let's look at the weakness of the top few sides.

Barcelona the one weakness is depth, they could realistically be fielding 87/86 rated players if they pick up a couple of injuries.

Bayern while still incredibly strong have a slight vunerability at the back if others choose to exploit it.

Chelsea are the most balanced side but also , just the weakest is midfield so could possesion be a problem.

Juve have the best depth but the poorest attack and defence of the top 4

Tottenham will struggle with the weak keeper they now have following the demise of Hart , others to look out for are Arsenal , will a one man band be enough .

Everton who should be in the relegation zone are currently up with the big boys.

Hard to see a way that Sevilla or Internacional will survive this year. Sevilla are the most vunerable at the back, and won't get the possesion needed to feed the forwards. Internacional ,while better at the back and up front seriously lack the depth to make any more progress. Man City really haven't  made much progress statistically lately and they have to be amongst the favourites to go down , where as promoted Leverkeusen should be comfortable enough to stay up.

Season 7 Division 5 value added.

3 Playoff teams sit high in the PVA,  Montpellier lead both categories.

Only in D5 could the winner of the league be 7th in PVA.  With no relegation it is possible to throw caution to the wind and that is what Montpellier did , charging into a playoff spot.  Dnipro in 2nd and Cologne in 3rd deserve the 2nd and 3rd PVA spots.  Flamengo and Bremen have the joint second VA of +11 and get into the playoffs.

Celta were the only original top 5 teams not to disappoint their fans and could not do any more, will next season be a repeat?

 Predicted 4th place team Twente were 19th and get the wooden spoon in both categories,  narrowly ahead of 2nd best West Ham who came 8th and Independiente who should have been on the edge of playoffs but came last.

Season 7 Division 4 value added.

Liege set the highest standard, but Sao Paulo get the highest VA.

Standard Liege the winners of D4 also get the highest PVA of +6 , remarkable for a playoff bound team. Sao Paulo arguably out did them , with automatic promotion and a VA of +12.

Marseille gained +9 VA and a playoff spot. Zagreb really pulled out the stops to get a VA of +5, the odds on last placed tean , secured their future in 15th.

Espanyol were a disapointing 8th, and got the lowest PVA and VA.  Monaco must be dissapointed at finishing only in the playoff but happier perhaps than Villa and Olympiacos who missed out.

Again relegation was sadly predictable with Besitkas, Dynamo Moscow, Stuttgart failing to improve on their starting position. Bordeaux must look to the future as a strong side were relegated.

Division 3 value added season 7.

A whole lot of Hertha for the others as Berlin storm to the top.

Disaster for Leicester and AZ.

Hertha really pulled out all the stop to finish top, they get the highest PVA of +4 ,  the highest VA goes to Galatasary at +10 in 7th , they were early season relegation fodder so a particular shout for them. The other playoff teams , Chievo and Spartak get the next 2 VA spots at +9. Newcastle and Lazio more or less did what was expected of them and gained promotion. 

Leicester were the notable top of the flops at -10 VA and the lowest PVA.  Narrowly ahead of Lyon who should have been promoted but avoided even the playoffs at -5 VA and -0.5PVA, tied with PSV who could still get promoted despite a below par season.

 Relegation was a bit less predictable but still 3 of the predicted lowest 5 were relegated.

SC Internacional lead the tables, with all the predicted top 7 massively underperforming.

If Division 1 is predictable , then Division 2 is the opposite.

SC Internacional finished 12 spots ahead of predicted and won the league, also with the highest PVA , Everton were also promoted automatically and were the highest originally rated team to do well.  Hoffenheim were also 12 places higher than predicted in 4th, but must go through the playoffs.  Sevilla another playoff team must also be proud of their performance.

Conversly the decline of AC Milan continues , should have bounced back but finished 10th,  with the worse PVA . Ajax who should also have gone up finished 11th , Southampton who should have been in the playoff spots got relegated and have the worse VA.  

The main similarity with D1 is that 3 out of the 4 relegated teams were the statistically the worse at the start of the season.

Division 1 value added.

Ok this is how it works. At the start of the season I worked out statistically where each team should finish. 

From that you deduct the finishing position to give the value added , VA. 

So if a team should have finished 8th but came 2nd they get a VA of +6.

However to take into account relevance of finishing position we then add 1 to that and divide by the finishing postion to get the positional value added PVA.

So in the above situation they would get a PVA of 3.5  ( 6+1 ) / 2.

So in Division 1 Roma get the highest PVA finishing 7 spots ahead of predicted, they also have the highest VA of _2 .  Barcelona & Bayern are second in PVA which shows the settled nature of the division.   Other notable performances are Porto , Schalke and Liverpool , who could have been in relegation trouble but all kept afloat.

Lowest PVA was Man Utd who just underperformed Tottenham who had the lowest net VA.  The relegation of Atletico Madrid is the stand out for me as the other relegated teams were those predicted at the start of the season , which begs an interesting question.

Division 5 Season 7  stats and facts.  Two teams should dominate but will they ?

At least for now my own Celta Vigo team sit top of the pile.  With a midfield worthy of D2 at least it is no surprise they haven't lost in any serious competition so far.  Weaker at the back but strong enough for this league. West Ham have a stronger defense but a weaker keeper which could be their downfall.

Basel have a more balanced approach with no overall weakness,  unlike Twente who load up the keeper and forward line at the expense of all else.

Dnipro should be an interesting team if they can get enough possession to do damage to the opposition.   River Plate 6th in the stats currently lead the division , a good start by a team good enough to challenge all season long. Lille in 2nd probably don't have what it takes ,mainly a weak defence is likely to let them down.

Rubin Kazan are in last place stats wise and are waiting for the Portuguese ratings to buff their keeper up to the 86 /87 he deserves , so expect them to do better. Augsburg, Bremen , Flamengo will suffer all year with their current set ups.

Division 5 is 2 pts per club weaker on average or roughly 1pt per player position only really the top half statisically should hope for promotion.

Division 4 in many ways better than Division 3.

With one exceptional club in AS Monaco who could succeed in D1 the average D4 side is as good as the average D3 side.

At least statistically speaking D4 has a better club than anything in D3 and D3 has a worse club than anything in D4. The world has gone mad!.

This should give you the idea that D4 is a wide open mad world where almost anyone who gets promoted could then go on to have a second good season , so probably D4 sides could see a double bounce as a quite reasonable prospect.

Monaco's big problem is a weak keeper for such a good side. They will prosper in D4 but everyone knows , bye pass the midfield lump the ball up to a big striker.  This leaves them vunerable to the likes of Espanyol, Anderlecht, Hellas and Aston Villa all who could challenge them.

 Espanyol are the most balanced side and should concede the least goals.

Anderlecht should expect a good finishing position but do they have the depth for a full season push.  Their Belgium rivals don't have that issue but a weak offense is likely to be their achilles heel.

There are a number of relegation possibilities all the way up to Bordeaux should be concerned.  Zagreb are strong enough at the back , but where will the goals come from,  Stuttgart doing well for now but lack depth and have defensive frailties.  Dynamo Moscow more than any team can not afford a single injury without the team suffering.

So finally D3 and D4 seem to have merged ratings rise, at least for now,  however some old timers may see their last few season in D4 and the rating drop will come sooner or maybe much further in the season.

Division 3 stats and facts, are you the best or worst at being average?

PSV and Lazio head and shoulders above the rest.

Good news for those in division 3 , there are probably 10 or more clubs down to Shaktar who if they were promoted wouldn't get relegated straight away. A 90 rated attacking line is sure to do well against the generally weaker defences and keepers of D3, the only way to keep them at bay would be to deny possesion. This gives PSV a huge advantage as they should also get most of the ball. Only Lazio and Lyon can match them in that respect.

These should be the promoted teams with Hertha , who have another 90 attacking team on their tails.

Leicester , Newcastle, CSKA, Hamburg all very similar teams , who could push for a play off spot.

At the wrong end there is a fairly steep decline. We see 87 or even 86's in defence and if this is combined with a weak midfield their is only one way this will go. The two Turkish sides Cruziero and Swansea look hot to drop. With the exception of Galatasaray they fill the lower 4 positions along with Boca Juniors who are rated 5th from last in any case.

Is there an impossible gap between D2 and D1. The stats suggest yes. Can a top manager prove otherwise.

To not get instantly relegated the ETOT, the experimental ratings total in D1 is around 224.5

As you can see from the table below only AC Milan and Leverkeusen have a strong enough squad to survive more than one season. This sets up the dilema, get promotion get the sack next year..

In any case neither of these teams has had a great start.

Leverkeusen and AC Milan should be there or there abouts at the end of the season and in theory 1 / 2. Leverkeusen lack depth and have a shaky defence but in every other aspect have a great starting 11.

Milan are steady throughout and should be hard to break down by any team.

Ajax , Inter and Southampton are more or less AC Milan clones and except for Inter, none have had a great start , is there a shift to individual performance in the game dynamics or perhaps morale is more important.

Valencia should push for a higher place but goalkeeping has always been a weak point. Giroud has never really done the business for them and perhaps he should be sold on.

Everton have a well balanced side and depth which has set them off on the right course during the early part of the season.

At the wrong end the lower 4 teams dip below 220,  each has an obvious exploitable fault. Sporting the keeper, Sunderland the midfield,  Sampdoria the keeper and AS St Etienne the defence. Now there may be transfers coming in but Sunderland will stuggle for possession and that seems to count for so much .