Bayern back on top! After relinquishing the top power ranking spot to Hellas Verona last season, Bayern is back on top, with Chelsea also leapfrogging Verona.

Holding down the basement for the 3rd year in a row is Stuttgart. Those poor supporters!

My club CSKA climbed 8 spots to #45. Our first season ever in D1 looks statistically impossible.

Biggest Risers from S26: Celta Vigo moved from 97 to 66 while Cologne/Koln moved from 52 way up to 25.

Biggest Fallers from S26: Boca Juniors and Man United both fell almost 25 spots. Must be a Cavani thing.

How does everyone look compared to S20 when I first started tracking?

Napoli, Zenit, and Sevilla have all climbed almost 50 spots! On the opposite end Schalke, Sassuolo, and Werder Bremen supporters are all left in tears from the on-field product moving down close to 50 spots (Schalke is down 62 spots in the power rankings!!).

It should be a good season for West Brom, Genoa, and Napoli as they far outrank their opponents. Augsburg and CSKA appear to stand almost no chance of survival.

Two strong favourites for promotion, who can join them?

A division of contrasts to be sure.  Some ruinously bad teams, that are for some reason uncompetitive, despite higher rated players being freely available, this could cause some skewed stats in this division if they make a number of purchases during the season. On that note I have capped Stuttgart’s top 18 to 78 as I believe that 70 rated players will not feature much in the first team.

Valencia is an easy side to get promoted strong all-over best keeper in the division best midfield, best depth.  Marseille may be the best defence in the league and have a great attack but will lack in possession at times.  AZ a more balanced team are in 3^rd spot but they lack more depth than their 2 rivals. Celta Vigo currently managerless are the 4^th best team in the division and have a potent front line.  Santos, Brugge and Torino should make up the top 7 with very little disagreement from the A.I.

In fact, with 1 exception of Shaktar the A.I. and I  (sounds like a Christmas musical for about 20 years’ time) agree very closely.  The A.I.  maybe thinks the weak keeper and lack of midfield strength will be more of a problem.

No relegation of course, Stuttgart is dire and utterly uncompetitive, Bordeaux makes more of an effort and if they could swap a few midfielders for defenders could soon have a decent squad.  Twente just need to sort the keeper and defender.

Possible outliers: Brugge could drop to 10-12^th due to a large depth gap, Kazan are predicted to be vulnerable to injuries of suspension with a possible low point of 16^th.  Atalanta could push up as high as 11^th due to a small depth gap and balance within the squad.

Solid agreement on the top 3 in this division.

There is certainly a growing trend of 2 or 3 top teams followed by a close pack of teams. Napoli are favourites with the usual top and tail technique that works well in the lower divisions. Lokomotiv are a well-balanced outfit and they are just a little more solid in midfield to close rivals Celtic who should make up the top 3.

Liverpool or Monaco look set for 4^th or 5^th just a variation of keeper and attacking strength. Ajax look set for around 6^th spot, no big 90 ratings but a well-rounded squad maybe lacking a bit of depth. Palace are the first team with a big difference between me and the A.I., the weaker keeper is a major concern for the A.I. as is the lack of depth. Independiente is the A.I.s last playoff spot team and I can see why with a well set up balanced squad.  A can see Dynamo Moscow making a good cup run with their strength in depth. If you assume around 219 to survive D3 then they would be the last team who could get promoted and not immediately relegated again.

The two German sides Schalke and Bremen hold up the table, good enough attacks but defence and midfield lack enough depth to handle the better teams.  Lyon look to be in trouble half a point away from anyone else defence and keeper are too weak Then comes some disagreement, Feyenoord also are really vulnerable at the back I see them in 17^th spot, the A.I. says that Dynamo Kiev lack depth meaning their advantages in attack and midfield could come back to bite them.

What about possible outliers?  Palace are seen as attack heavy with a large depth gap possible low point of 15^th, Kiev may not even make 17^th if their lack of depth has a serious impact. Dynamo Moscow could go as high as 5^th   if that huge depth helps them out.

Who will win the battle for 3^rd place.

West Brom and Genoa, should both be in Division 1 and would probably win Division 2 at a canter. The only thin holding back Genoa is their keeper and for West Brom maybe there could be even more depth.

Zenit are the clear favourites for 3^rd spot even if the A.I. sees it a bit different but with a good Keeper, Midfield and Attack that should be enough.  Then there is the usually closely matched pack with 8 teams more or less within 1 pt of each other.  Hoffenheim go for the midfield possession, the A.I sees them overhauling Zenit for that reason. My own Sevilla sit 5^th maybe the last gasp of an ageing squad, Sampdoria are the 6^th placed team in my stats but the A.I. sees the lack of depth as being more problematical than I do.  Lille are my 7^th place team a strong attack and midfield, the A.I. is less bothered about the weaker keeper than I am.

If you assume 221.3 is survival in D2, probably no team lower than Lille would survive D2 , however the A.I. sees Sunderland as having a fighting chance with their strong midfield line.

There is much stronger agreement for the relegation teams, 6 of the lower 8 match with only 2 swapping 1 position.  218.1 was more or less the cut off last season, so River Plate much the weakest team look set to go down, Dnipro look to finish 19^th but you pick them for relegation at your peril.  Galatasaray and Newcastle are well shy of the other teams with the possible exception of Partizan.

Who could be the outliers?  St Etienne a lack of depth could drop as low as 14^th.  Spurs may get off to a good start but likely to prove inconsistent during the season could drop to 15^th – 17^th if they have injuries or suspensions.  Newcastle on the other hand have a good amount of depth and balance, they could finish as high as 12^th to 14^th and finally River Plate despite being weaker than anyone else they could reach 17^th as no one position is likely to suffer due to losing a player or 2.

Arsenal to win the league, human and A.I. agree but could they be an outlier?

Not as close at the top as D1, Arsenal has a clear division 1 squad and should get promoted with ease.  Stoke in addition there is solid agreement that the well-balanced team with loads of depths should finish second well ahead of their nearest rivals.  This is where things get tricky. Only 1pt separates the next 6 teams rather like the top of D1, so a small deviation from form could place the 3^rd place team out of the play off spots.  Flamengo if they score enough should finish 3^rd but are they over reliant on their attack when they have a weak keeper.  The A.I. sees them finishing 7^th and maybe lower.  My 4^th place team Internacional are the A.I.s choice for 3^rd, seeing them as more balanced even if depth is slightly less.  Benfica also a balanced team with a good attack should be 5^th or 6^th, before we reach another big difference in Cologne. I see them as coming 6^th, the A.I. says 12^th, even more so though Anderlecht who I see as a playoff team but the A.I. sees struggling to avoid relegation. If you assume 224 is needed to survive D1 all the teams except Arsenal and Stoke have plenty to do if promoted.

Liege is the A.I.s big winner finishing in 4^th rather than 8^th and it also see’s West Ham finishing as high as 5^th.

There is general agreement that current top team Augsburg will struggle finishing last or 2^nd to last with Boca Juniors.  They should be joined by Dinamo Zagreb. I see Espanyol as relegation territory but the A.I. does not agree, with Real Madrid being unfavoured by the robotic calculator. Interestingly only Augsburg are below last seasons cut off point of 219.8 for relegation.

The four biggest uncertainties are around Arsenal if hit by injuries or a poor rotational policy could drop them to 4 – 6^th spot. Flamengo could lack consistency and the A.I. says in a worse circumstance they could drop to 10 – 12^th.  Cologne has a big depth gap so with bad luck could finish 15 – 17^th.  Zagreb has a small depth gap and that could count in their favour with a finish between 13^th – 15^th although that may only be evident after the mid-season.

I say Dortmund should win the league the A.I. says Chelsea (with a big caveat) who is correct.

Usual preamble. I work out the average rating in each of the 4 key positions, the lowest player in the top 18 and the average. This calculates a rating the ETOT, This is used to predicted the final position.

Last year I practiced with some A.I. data which only did marginally worse than I did. During the preseason I trained it with 5 more divisions of data. It came up with the A.I. formula and also was able to spot possible outliers.

It is closer at the top of D1 than ever. Any one of 6 teams have a good chance. Dortmund is just the top team with a great attack, midfield and some depth.  Chelsea who the A.I. predict to win are my 2^nd team, only a lack of depth hampers them. Hellas have greater depth than the Atlantic Ocean but you can’t play all those superstars, they are ranked 3^rd.  Barcelona 4^th ranked form me with that potent attacking threat, Porto a well-balanced team have good depth and a good attack.  They sit above Leicester who have a new gaffer who would be looking to push them to the top of the table.

There is then a sizeable gap to Juventus and the chasing pack.  At the lower end of the table if we say 224 is the cut off for survival, CSKA look doomed to me unless their keeper can save them, Cruzeiro have a good attack but an 88 keeper in D1 will struggle.  Milan and Leverkusen are close to the cut off and maybe their depth will save them.

The A.I. also looked at possible outliers and believes that Chelsea and Barcelona have the biggest potential to underperform placing Chelsea as low as 4-6^th place and Barcelona 9^th – 11^th as outliers. 

It also sees Levante as maybe pushing up to 4- 6^th spot and CSKA maybe 15^th – 17^th due to solid depth and keeper strength.