Santos the clear favourites who will join them.

Quick note, there were 2 obvious ABDs that I noticed and actioned as they may well have gone through before publication.

Santos have a top team in most of the important categories of D5 and would be at least playoff contenders in the division above.  Fiorentina have that rare thing in D5 a 90 rated attacker who will strike fear into the heart of the opposition defence.  Palace could achieve great things if they exchange that 86 rated keepers for an 87and gathered up a bit of depth but they are ranked 3^rd.

Celta the first playoff team, attack and midfield are the main strengths Torino a favoured top and tail team a potent 89/89 sandwich perhaps lacking a bit of filling.  If 217.5 is needed to survive D4 then Lazio, Olympiacos, Twente, Fenerbahce and AZ could all push for promotion with little fear of future problems.  Stuttgart continues to be pretty much the worse team in the history of T100 despite the early point which may be few and far between. Spartak also sit adrift of everyone else. Lyon and River Plate at least can see the opposition in the distance.

Quick hint you don’t need to pick up all the best grains of sand to build the best brick wall worth thinking about. All teams could have 11-12 decent players and then the rest could be whatever you make of it to stay competitive.

What does the A.I. make of all this? More or less thinks the same. Torino are predicted to finish lower due to lack of depth, AZ are predicted to be closer to the playoff spots due to the balance in the side and strong keeper.

Giant killers in the cup Lazio or Brugge

Napoli or Valencia which place in sun will be champs.

Napoli are a cut above any other team in the league, a 90 rated keeper, strongest attack, strongest mid should be game set and match even at this early stage. Valencia perhaps a keeper short of challenging their Italian rivals but they should have the defence to lock out most rivals.  Lokomotive also sit pretty in 3^rd spot a mighty midfield perhaps shields a lack of depth in parts of a team but nothing unexpected in D4.  That is obviously the point, in D4 an 86 can’t be classed as a week player and an 88 would be considered a strong one.

The playoff places should be contended by 4 of 6 teams which the A.I. and I agree on. PSG a decent attack but weaker in goal are favoured over Dynamo who are a similar team with a stronger defence gut weaker attack.  Montpellier are up for the top and tail approach so favoured in lower league with Marseille and Celtic trying the same tactic.  Independiente are a more balanced squad but do they lack a little depth especially if they get to the playoffs where that is more vital.

You need 219 to survive in division 3 so Partizan should not be discounted if their lack of depth doesn’t hamper them.  Anything less than 218 and you are looking to be served some relegation steak with a side order of sour grapes.  Bremen sits above that cut off.  Kazan looks beyond help at the moment, too weak all round, they will get relegated if nothing is done.  Athletic club really do now need a better keeper to avoid returning to D5.  Lyon are counting on a potent attack out scoring the opposition in high scoring fixtures but this hasn’t gone well so far.  River Plate could just survive. A keeper and defence that is decent for the league with a midfield screen and an ok attack.  Feyenoord even more so than River Plate with Chievo going for the balanced approach. Up for the cup, well Valencia, Dynamo and Marseille should be.

Only one really noticeable disagreement with the A.I. and that is Dynamo Kyiv, I see them mid table or maybe better with that top and tail combo. The A.I. though prefers the more balanced defensive approach of Newcastle to finish in the top half.

Too tight to call at the top of D3

In division 3 unless you inherit a D1 team a compromise has to be made.  So in the block of 9 teams down to Ajax you have every variety and combination of strength and weakness that you could encounter.

Zenit while well balanced are reliant on a strong attack and must be favoured to overpower most weaker-keeper teams. Liege have the top an tail approach of the strong keeper decent attack in 2^nd spot along with some depth. Boca are the one trick pony of super strong attacker, little or no depth. The A.I. chooses to punish this approach seeing them as relegation contenders this year.  Hoffenheim are an evenly balanced team with loads of depth very similar to Monaco who sit just below them

Sampdoria sacrifice depth for attack , unlike St Etienne who trade in depth for defence.  Last but not least Ajax with a well balanced starting team lacking depth and a strong keeper.

You would need 221.5 to survive in D2 so other than the top 2 all the rest have plenty to do.

218.4 was the relegation cut off last season and only two teams sit below that level, though if we consider the quality of the teams promoted to D2 that is not a great shock as the quality in D3 has dropped by around 0.25 pt per starter this season.  Even so only Dnipro who are the eternal survivors and Malaga look sure to drop.  Basel are predicted by both the A.I. and myself to also fall but the A.I. thinks Southampton will survive in 14^th replaced by Boca who it predicts will drop.

Double bounce for Genoa, stats say so.

As alluded to last season Genoa have a mighty team in strength and depth. The one weakness is at the back but they still are almost 1.3 pts over the 4^th place team meaning promotion at least should be guaranteed. That team are Inter, who go for a midfield approach at the expense of the back line.  Stoke sit at the head of 3 other teams over 224, which if you remember is the cut off for D1 prosperity.  Stoke really are a rounded team and should last the pace with their depth.  Cruzeiro sacrifice some depth for a more attacking line up, expect a strong start to the season and the potential to challenge the top 2 if they stay free of injury and suspension.  Milan makes up the trio very similar all round to Cruzeiro.  Time to introduce the A.I. because our robot overlords disagree with my findings and see Leverkusen as key title contenders perhaps it is their greater defensive prowess that is seen as important.  Flamengo are the last team predicted for the playoffs a very strong front line, but it is hard to ignore WBA who did so well last season and still sport a powerful squad.

Up for the cup, well beyond those mentioned West Ham and Sevilla seem to have plenty of depth combined with a decent keeper.

Last season 221 put you in serious relegation danger. This must mean that Galatasaray are in serious trouble, Augsburg may have a good enough attack to overcome their rivals. You really could perm any 2 of Anderlecht. Udinese. Madrid, West Ham, Man Utd or Sevilla. Looking more carefully it is likely that Man Utd will be the wild card, low top 18 but stronger squad. If they get behind early on in the season and get injuries, they would find it hard to progress, conversely a good start and a bit of luck could find them well clear before the relegation battle begins.

The big A.I. differences are. Atletico Madrid. The A.I. see’s them relegated due to the lack of depth, which I think it is over egging and West Ham it predicts as 7 places higher, maybe their well-rounded team will finish better than expected with the level of depth they have.

Chelsea the highest ranked team just above Porto, is balance the key to all things?

How it all work. I calculate the average rating in the four main positions, the top 18 and the average. A formula calculates the ETOT which is the ranking each team gets based on each position. If for any reason the lowest ranked top 18 player is much lower than anyone else I adjust that using common sense so as not to skew the results.

The only thing Chelsea lack is depth. It would be possible for 2 or 3 injuries to break them down sufficiently for others to challenge.  Porto, Barca and Hellas have a strong attacking line but too often the rip each other apart leaving Chelsea unscathed.  Hellas have great depth but an 89 keeper doesn’t cut it in D1.

Juventus have the top and tail approach of great keeper and attack, a few players of the highest quality in midfield and they could challenge once more.  Leicester joins them in the strongest lead pack again a well balanced

What about relegation prospects?  Last year under 224 meant a 75% chance of relegation. So there are 4 clear favourites. Espanyol not really built for D1 will struggle at all levels.  Internacional do have a strong keeper and more depth. CSKA did so well last season to stay up but this season it will be even tougher. Man City will be 100% reliant on their tough keeper. Hamburg are the only other team close to 224 but they are now much more balanced and have great depth, this could leave Cologne vulnerable with a few injuries.

The A.I. has also made its own ranking and it does closely agree with me. Berlin and Arsenal are predicted to swap places but all the others are + or – 1 at most.

Bilboko Athletic Kluba estatistikaren txapelduna.

In honour of my wife and kids basque heritage, indeed Athletic club were the champions of the stats. +11 VA and +6 PVA leading to automatic promotion as part of a long term project.  They are narrowly ahead of Kazan and PSV on +7 and +8 VA , the two playoff finalists (sounds familiar over achieving teams triumphing in the playoff while underachieving higher rank teams fail ).

Valencia were the hot favourites all year and can relax into D4 life knowing they are more than likely to go up again.  Big positive scores go to Shaktar on +5 and Bordeaux on +6 VA showing that managerial skill plays an important part still.

No relegation of course so who stats wise did the worse.  Brugge hold that record with -10 VA, they should have been playoff bound but narrowly avoided the sack race. Celta did little better with -7VA, Olympiacos and Spartak also did worse than expected.

3 of the lowest 4 landed where they should with 5th worse team Sassuolo joining them.

A middle level of variaion in D5 , I out did the A.I. again by around 4 pts total.  Once again the A.I. slipped up more predicting under performing teams.

Ajax win the league and the stats.

+5VA pushed the Ajax team from playoff team to champions. A great performance from Moenchengladbach saw them come in 3^rd with a +8VA, in the stats they just lead the other promoted team Liverpool who on +2 VA came 2^nd in the league. Highest VA goes to Lyon on +10 , they just missed out on the playoff spots.  Big shouts outs to Bremen on +8 VA who climbed well safe of relegation, +6 Chievo who came 20^th.

In a similar way to D3 two of the most underperforming teams Napoli and Celtic on -4VA and -6VA got into the playoff but were dumped out by Lokomotiv and Liverpool in the Semi-finals. Palace on -11VA were rightly relegated , isn’t hard to look beyond the keeper with them as 87 rated keepers are freely available.  Fenerbache will also be disappointed to be relegated on -6 VA where as Dynamo Moscow must count themselves lucky to avoid it.

Overall a middling level of variation +/- 4 per team, I again did slightly better than the A.I.  The A.I. correctly worked out Palace would finish much lower than I thought but did less well on the majority of the lower ranked teams, which does seem to be a theme.

Two playoff finalists lead the stats.

Perhaps it is not a surprise that the two playoff finalists are the two most over performing teams. Galatasaray +11VA and relegation candidate lead the stats just beating +6 VA St Etienne in 2^nd spot. My own Sevilla come 3^rd in the stats, the only automatically promoted team to over perform. While tied on PVA with WBA the superior VA gives us the edge into 3^rd. Having said that WBA and Genoa did what they must in 1^st and 2^nd and should do well in D2.  Dnipro have to get a shout out on +3VA avoiding relegation just.

In reality no one did really badly. Hoffenheim failed to make the playoff when they should and hence are the lowest in the stats, just above Sampdoria who also will look to better next year.   Montpellier’s -5VA dropped them into the relegation zone along with Partizan. 2 of the 4 predicted teams were relegated and no one outside the lowest 6 teams escaped which is food for thought.   

The variation in D3 was very similar to D1, less than +/- 3 positions per team, I did slightly better on 56 pts out vs 58pts the A.I failed to spot the mild under-performing teams as well as I did.

Espanyol +14VA +5PVA the stats winners.

Some big winners and some big not winners in D2.  Espanyol were a potential relegation team at the start of the season but true grit, good management and transfers pushed them to promotion.  Playoff team Wolfsburg had +10 VA and could have gained promotion over Espanyol had they slipped up. Internacional came 2^nd in the league and 3^rd in the stats. Other great over preforming teams were Augsburg on +10 VA, Everton on +6 and Atletico Madrid on +5.  Arsenal did all they could and won the league.

At the wrong end. Flamengo who should have been promoted slipped to 12^th and -9VA and the worse PVA,  Liege on -11 VA managed to get relegated with a great squad with Malaga on -8 VA suffering the same fate.  Anderlecht can also count themselves lucky on -7 VA to stay up.

There was a much bigger variation in D2.  My total was 102 and the AI 100. The A.I was generally more optimistic about the over performing teams but not pessimistic enough with the underperforming teams.

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Chelsea well deserved champions and leaders in the stats.

Usual reminder. At the start of the year, I calculated the ratings in the 4 main positions, Top18 and Average. This is plugged in a magic formula and finishing position calculated. This is used to work out the Positional value added, which is based on the value added and finishing position.

Chelsea finished a position higher than expected and overcame their closest opposition.  Barcelona in 2^nd spot in the league and the stats, also showed distinct improvement this season, with Leicester in 3^rd place also showing that a new boss can continue the good form.

Highest value added goes to Hertha predicted 11^th they came 6^th and get a slightly higher value added than Sporting who came 5^th. CSKA had the only other largish VA on +4 avoiding relegation.

Biggest underperformance, probably this goes down to Dortmund who slumped to 7^th spot, but could also be with Juventus on -7 VA or Inter on -5 VA and relegation.

3 of the predicted relegation teams went down.

How did the A.I. do. From 20 teams my total variation for 58 and the A.I. 60, so I did slightly better. The A.I. did get 2 teams spot on but I got more than half the teams within +/- 2 positions.