Division 5 , a view from the rear.

Division 5 the only way is up.

 

In open gameworlds Division 5 is the hardest to escape from. Only 1 side gets auto promotion and the playoffs are even worse of a lottery than normal. However in the TOP 100 very sensibly there are 4 places up for grabs. The only thing to fear is the sack race at the end of the season.

Gk Def Mid Att Top15 Top21 Ave
Hetha Berlin 89 88 88 90 86 75 88.2 1
Sao Paulo 89 88 88 88 87 87 87.833 16
Stuttgart 89 87 88 88 87 85 87.333 13
Villlareal 88 88 88 87 86 86 87.167 5
Dynamo Kiev 87 88 89 88 87 84 87.167 18
Olympiacos 88 87 87 87 86 85 86.667 4
Flamengo 87 87 87 87 85 85 86.333 3
Club Bruge 87 86 87 87 86 85 86.333 11
Anderlecht 88 87 87 87 86 83 86.333 19
Feyenord 88 86 87 87 86 83 86.167 7
Santos 87 87 88 87 86 82 86.167 9
Dinamo Zagreb 89 87 87 86 85 82 86 15
Celtic 87 87 86 86 85 83 85.667 8
Bremen 85 86 87 87 85 82 85.333 12
Standard Liege 87 85 85 85 84 82 84.667 2
Rubin Kazan 87 85 86 87 82 81 84.667 14
Augsburg 88 85 86 84 83 80 84.333 6
Partizan 85 86 87 88 83 75 84 10
Independiente 85 85 85 86 83 80 84 17
FC Twente 85 84 85 85 82 80 83.5 20

The average for this league is 85.9 compared to 86.4 for D4. Quite a gap consdiering D4 is close to D3 in ability terms. Anything above 85.5 should be enough to survive in the league above , so any team down to Dinamo Zagreb should have promotion ambitions. The current leaders Hertha Berlin are a cut above their opponents.   Strong in all positions, and a lethal strike force. True depth has been sacrificed and a real injury crisis is their only fear.  Sao Paulo who got off to a poor start are on paper the firm second favourites, no real weakness in strength or depth , one can only see them move up,

Villareal and Dynamo Kiev should see out the remaining automatic spots between them , similar sides, Kiev will look to maintain possession.  Then there is a huge clutch of almost identikit teams mid to high 86 rated , down to Celtic on the table above. Stand out sides could be Dinamo Zagreb if the keeper is on form and Santos if they keep more possesion to deny others chances.


There is then some what of a decrease in quality , all the sides have some major weak point which will hamper their progress.  Breman, Partizan, Indepndiente , FC Twente, is a 86 keeper that hard to find ?  Augburg not potent up top but may well finish top half on the strength of the keeper. 

FC Twente are the worse team by far and hold up the league.


Good luck to all..

 

 

Division 4 first amongst equals

Division 4 the key stats.

 

When we look at this division we can see immediately that there is much less difference from the division above. The average rating is 86.4 compared to 86.7 in D3.   If we use a rule of thumb that you would need a rating of just above 86 to survive in D3 you can see that the vast majority of clubs down to SC Internacional have the potential to gain promotion.

This makes this the most open division so far.

GK Def Mid Att Top15 Top21 Average
Southamoton 89 87 89 89 87 83 88.2 2
West Ham 87 88 88 88 87 86 87.333 12
Dynamo Moscow 88 87 89 87 86 85 87 3
Genoa 89 88 88 89 86 82 87 7
Malaga 87 87 89 88 87 83 86.833 4
Torino 89 87 88 89 86 82 86.833 5
Udinese 87 87 87 88 87 85 86.833 11
Montpellier 88 87 87 88 86 85 86.833 14
Celta Vigo 87 87 88 86 85 82 86.6 1
West Brom 87 86 87 88 86 85 86.5 8
AZ 88 87 87 88 85 84 86.5 17
Dnipro 88 87 87 87 86 83 86.333 13
Atalanta 87 87 87 88 85 83 86.167 10
River Plate 87 87 87 87 86 83 86.167 15
Sc Internacional 87 87 87 87 86 82 86 6
Cologne 88 87 87 89 85 80 86 9
Espanyol 87 87 87 88 86 78 85.5 18
Chievo 85 87 87 87 84 82 85.333 19
Levante 87 86 88 87 84 80 85.333 20
Hellas Verona 85 85 87 86 83 82 84.667 16

The current position is shown to the right of the table. It is probably no surprise that 6/7 of the highest rated teams  occupy the automatic promotion and play off spots , even early doors.
They have to a large extent chosen to sacrifice quantity for quality, probably a good idea in this division.  West Ham and Dynamo Moscow are an exception to that and if they can keep up early in the season they will be in a position to challenge the out and out favourites Southamton.
It is no surprise to find teams of a similar build Udinese and Montpellier also begining the season well .  There is such a similarity from then on down to even Levante that it is hard to say how a particular team will do statistically , which means that manager skill and the vagueness of injuries will have more effect.

It has to be a concern for Espanyol,  Chievo , Levante that they are already struggling and have little in the wasy of back up to push into the front line.

Hellas Verona though are rather a sad sight and I can't see them surviving ,  

Division 3 Stats and Facts

Division 3 the tale of the tape.

How does Division 3 match up to the 2 top flight positions.

 Division 3 easy up , easy down, most peoples perception of this league.  High risk , high gain.

 

GK def mid att top 15 top 21
Monaco 88 89 89 90 87 85 88
Ajax 91 90 89 89 86 83 88
Shaktar 88 90 88 90 87 85 88
Marseille 91 87 90 88 86 84 87.66667
Hamburg 88 88 88 88 87 85 87.33333
Lille 89 87 88 89 85 85 87.16667
Aston Villla 87 87 88 88 86 86 87
CSKA 89 89 89 89 84 82 87
Swansea 88 87 88 89 86 84 87
Besitkas 87 87 87 87 86 85 86.5
Sampdoria 88 88 88 89 84 82 86.5
Leiscester 87 87 88 89 85 82 86.33333
Sassuolo 88 87 87 88 85 82 86.16667
Stoke 88 88 87 89 85 80 86.16667
Cruziero 87 86 87 89 85 82 86
Hoffenheim 88 87 87 87 85 82 86
Crystal Palace 86 87 86 87 85 84 85.83333
Basel 86 87 87 87 86 82 85.83333
PSV 87 87 88 87 85 80 85.66667
Bordeaux 88 87 88 86 85 80 85.66667


The average rating is 86.7 , compared to 89.7 in Division 1 and 88.15 in Division 2, so we kind of drop 1.7/ 1.8 rating points per division.  Using the same theory as last time you probably need around a rating of 87 to survive in division 2 , which would mean a much smaller field of possible promotees from Swansea up .

There is also much less depth , almost all teams lack a full strength squad but all at least have at least 1 capable sub in all positions. 

It is easy to see that Monaco, Ajax , Shaktar and Marseille all have that bit extra to challenge for the top spot. Ajax may well be able to put out the most convincing first team and with a capable keeper could be joint favourites with Marseille.

The following 5 teams as previously mentioned could well challenge for automatic promotion or a playoff spot.. CSKA are the most potent but perhaps lack enough to challenge all season , so an early good start is essential. Lille also have a good top and tail meaning they will always threaten.

From Besitkas down to Hoffenheim is there a surprise lurking in the murky depths. Well Sampdoria are a kind of inferior version of CSKA, so again an early start for them is vital. 
 As for the relegation candidates you could argue that it is more the lack of players outside the regular starters that will cost them, therefore they may get off to a good start but fade as time goes by, the only exception being Basel who ironically have the depth but no strength.

Division 2 stats and figures

Division 2 stats and figures.

After a tiring night with her abacus,  Professor Algie Bra turned her attention to Division 2.

 







GK
def
mid
Att
top15
top21
average
Dortmund
89
91
93
90
90
88
90.17
PSG
91
91
92
95
87
84
90.00
Napoli
90
90
91
92
88
87
89.67
Schalke
88
91
90
92
88
87
89.33
Tottenham
92
90
91
89
87
86
89.17
AS Roma
89
92
91
91
88
84
89.17
Wolfsburg
89
90
91
90
88
85
88.83
Zenit
88
90
88
89
88
87
88.33
Galatasaray
90
88
90
90
87
85
88.33
Borussia Moenchengladbach
90
89
90
89
87
83
88.00
Newcastle
89
88
89
88
87
86
87.83
Everton
90
88
89
88
87
85
87.83
Sporting
90
87
89
88
86
85
87.50
Spartak
86
88
89
88
87
86
87.33
Athletic Bilbao
86
88
89
90
86
84
87.17
Lokomtiv Moscow
87
89
88
89
87
83
87.17
Sunderland
87
87
88
89
86
85
87.00
Boca Juniors
87
87
87
88
86
86
86.83
Benfica
88
87
88
89
85
83
86.67
St Etienne
89
88
88
88
85
82
86.67



















Again there is no managerial bias. Lokomtiv Moscow have an unusually small squad so the top 21 figure has been increased to stop it skewing the mean.

Firstly it is worth noting that Division 2 has an overall average of 88.23 compared to Division 1 of 89.7. Less difference than one might think. 

To survive in division 1 , you are likely to need a rating above 88, this in reality rules out all teams below Borussia M  for promotion, as things stand.

The 2 star sides are Dortmund and PSG. PSG have an attack better than any defence , whereas Dortmund should have more possesion than any other team in the league. PSG perhaps lack depth but should still gain automatic promotion.

There is then a group of closely matched teams, often the way in division 2 , all of whom could win the league, get automatic promotion or a playoff spot.  Napoli and Schalke use a potent attack. Tottenham will be tough at the back, with Roma being a good all round team.. Roma have good depth but poor deep strength which is an interesting condundrum for their boss.

Hanging on their coat tales, the remaining playoff contenders, Wolfsburg, Zenit ,  Galatasaray, Borussia M. 

Wolfsburg and Zenit are defensively strong, probably a good idea against the stronger attacking opponents already mentioned

Then we have the twilight zone teams, not good enough for promotion, but too good for releagation. Mostly they lack the depth of a division 1 squad, while still having quality. One or two of these squads could well challenge early on but will drop back as the season progresses.  Athletic Bilbao could well be that team. 

There do seem to be 3 firm favourites for relegation with Sunderland just sitting above them.  Boca do have depth and they would be my favourites to surprise.  St Etienne and Benfica will struggle all season and it is doubtful that they will have the where with all to drag themselves out of a relegation scrap.















































































































































Stats & Figures

Stats and Figures.

Dispelling the myths of Division 1.

 

GK
DEF
MID
ATT
Top15
Top21
Average
Barcelona
96
93
94
97
90
85
92.5
Bayern
90
92
94
97
90
87
91.667
Real Madrid
92
93
94
96
88
85
91.333
Atletico
90
91
91
90
88
87
91.167
Juventus
94
92
93
91
89
87
91
Chelsea
93
92
92
93
88
87
90.833
Man Utd
93
90
92
92
90
88
90.833
Arsenal
92
90
92
93
88
87
90.333
Man City
91
90
91
93
89
86
90
Inter
91
90
90
91
88
87
89.5
Lazio
90
89
91
90
89
87
89.333
Porto
92
89
89
91
87
86
89
AC Milan
89
89
90
91
88
86
88.833
Liverpool
88
90
90
90
88
86
88.667
Leverkusen
90
88
90
90
87
86
88.5
Valencia
90
89
90
90
86
85
88.333
Fiorentina
89
89
89
90
87
85
88.167
Fenerbarche
89
88
89
91
87
85
88.167
Lyon
89
88
89
89
87
87
88.167
Sevilla
89
89
90
90
87
82
87.833

Professor Algie Bra of the University of Brest ( PhDD) analyses the facts and figures of each team in division 1.

I have looked at the best players in each of the key positions, and averaged their rating. Where a player could start in more than one position I have made a common sense judgement of where they are likely to play.  Top 15 is the average of the best 15 excluding multiple keepers ,with the same for Top 21.

 As you can see on all counts Barcelona,  Bayern and Real Madrid , should be the dominant teams in the division.  It should therefore be seen as an abject failure if they finish outside the top 5.

Atletico , Juventus, Chelsea and Man Utd all have a squad capable of winning the league. I would expect Juventus and Chelsea to challenge earlier in the season with Atletico and Man Utd challenging more as the season progresses.

 Arsenal , Man City and Inter are the 3 remaining teams without an obvious chink in the armour needed in the top flight. They can put out a solid 90 rated team week in week out.  What they lack though is the stength in depth throughout the squad to guarantee a top 5 finish. However don't be surprised if one of these teams challenges for the top spot, but likewise if injuries are cruel they could struggle to avoid the chop.

 Lazio are somewhat of an anomaly, a weaker overall side but a great depth to the squad. Could they be the surprise package this year?


Porto, Milan,  Liverpool, Leverkeusen and Valencia don't really have that star player or 2 needed to challenge. They should however be confident of surviving in the top flight.  Valenica , Leverkeusen and Porto though will not want to get into an early season scrap for relegation as they simply do not have the reserves needed to fight off the teams beneath them.


Fiorentina, Fenerbache and Lyon will be fighting for survival all season, Lyon have depth but lack quality,  Fenerbache and Fiorentina will be looking at their front line to score more than their defensive line let in.

Seville look like firm favourites to go down.