Hellas and Sassuolo lead the charge. Monaco and West Ham some of the worst performing in all 4 leagues.

Again a good example of where a skew works well . Sampdoria have the highest raw VA at +12 but in all honesty 4th place hasn't won them any prizes yet!.  Hellas and Sassuolo gain auto promotion and deserve to be higher rated.

At the other end 3rd place pick West Ham finish last but was that worse than easy 1st pick Monaco finishing 12th with the side they had. Worth discussing.

Pred		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finish	VA	Skew
7	Hellas Verona	88.0	87.0	88.5	88.0	86.0	87.5	1.0	6.0	6
12	Sassuolo	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.2	2.0	10.0	5
16	Sampdoria	88.0	87.5	87.0	87.5	85.0	87.0	4.0	12.0	3
17	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	88.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.9	8.0	9.0	1.13
6	AS Saint-Etienne	89.0	87.5	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.7	3.0	3.0	1
8	Standard Liège	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.5	5.0	3.0	0.6
14	Dinamo Zagreb	89.0	87.0	87.5	87.5	84.0	87.0	11.0	3.0	0.27
11	Hoffenheim	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	86.0	87.4	9.0	2.0	0.22
18	Girondins Bordeaux	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	85.0	86.9	15.0	3.0	0.2
20	River Plate	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	83.0	86.8	18.0	2.0	0.11
15	Dynamo Kyiv	87.0	87.5	88.5	87.0	85.0	87.0	14.0	1.0	0.07
19	Montpellier HSC	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	86.0	86.9	19.0	0.0	0
5	Chievo Verona	87.0	88.5	89.0	88.0	86.0	87.7	6.0	-1.0	-0.17
13	Feyenoord	88.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	86.0	87.1	16.0	-3.0	-0.19
10	Atalanta BC	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.4	13.0	-3.0	-0.23
9	Lille OSC	89.0	87.0	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.5	17.0	-8.0	-0.47
4	AZ Alkmaar	89.0	87.0	87.5	89.0	86.0	87.7	10.0	-6.0	-0.6
2	Olympiacos	89.0	88.0	89.0	89.5	86.0	88.3	7.0	-5.0	-0.71
3	West Ham United	88.0	88.5	88.0	89.5	86.0	88.0	20.0	-17.0	-0.85
1	AS Monaco	88.0	89.5	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.9	12.0	-11.0	-0.92

Sporting Lisbon's fantastic run to the title gives them the biggest Skewed value average so far, Boca , so near so far at the moment.  PSV fall well short of the mark.

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finished	VA	Skew
10	SPORTING CP	88.0	87.5	89.0	89.0	85.0	87.7	1.0	9.0	9
6	Swansea City	88.0	88.0	87.5	89.5	87.0	88.0	2.0	4.0	2
18	Boca Juniors	88.0	87.0	87.0	88.0	85.0	87.0	6.0	12.0	2
17	Sunderland	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.1	7.0	10.0	1.4286
16	São Paulo FC	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	86.0	87.1	9.0	7.0	0.7778
20	Cruzeiro	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.6	13.0	7.0	0.5385
4	Villarreal CF	88.0	88.5	89.0	88.5	87.0	88.2	3.0	1.0	0.3333
13	Lokomotiv Moskva	87.0	88.0	88.0	89.0	84.0	87.2	10.0	3.0	0.3
19	Crystal Palace	88.0	87.5	88.0	87.5	84.0	87.0	16.0	3.0	0.1875
15	Galatasaray SK	87.0	87.0	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.2	15.0	0.0	0
12	Besiktas JK	91.0	86.5	88.0	87.0	85.0	87.5	12.0	0.0	0
14	FC Basel	87.0	87.0	88.5	88.5	85.0	87.2	17.0	-3.0	-0.176
3	Leicester City	89.0	88.0	90.0	89.5	85.0	88.3	4.0	-1.0	-0.25
5	Olympique Marseille	88.0	87.0	89.0	90.5	86.0	88.1	8.0	-3.0	-0.375
11	Udinese Calcio	87.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	87.6	19.0	-8.0	-0.421
9	Stoke City	89.0	88.0	88.0	89.0	85.0	87.8	18.0	-9.0	-0.5
7	Hamburg	88.0	88.5	88.5	89.5	85.0	87.9	14.0	-7.0	-0.5
8	Stuttgart	88.0	88.0	87.5	89.0	87.0	87.9	20.0	-12.0	-0.6
1	Athletic Club	90.0	88.5	88.0	90.0	87.0	88.7	5.0	-4.0	-0.8
2	PSV	90.0	89.0	88.5	88.0	87.0	88.5	11.0	-9.0	-0.818

 

Internacional get the biggest gain, but Everton clinching the title gets the overall award. Shaktar and Inter Milan the biggest disappointments.

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finish	VA	Skew
3	Everton	90.0	89.5	91.0	90.0	88.0	89.7	1.0	2.0	2
19	SC Internacional	88.0	87.5	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.4	10.0	9.0	0.9
5	AS Roma	91.0	90.5	91.0	90.5	84.0	89.4	3.0	2.0	0.667
15	ACF Fiorentina	88.0	89.0	89.5	88.0	86.0	88.1	9.0	6.0	0.667
12	Genoa CFC	89.0	88.5	89.0	88.0	87.0	88.3	8.0	4.0	0.5
7	Wolfsburg	89.0	89.0	89.5	92.0	86.0	89.1	5.0	2.0	0.4
20	Spartak Moskva	88.0	86.5	88.5	87.5	85.0	87.1	16.0	4.0	0.25
18	SL Benfica	88.0	87.0	89.5	90.5	83.0	87.6	15.0	3.0	0.2
13	Olympique Lyonnais	88.0	88.5	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.3	12.0	1.0	0.083
16	Aston Villa	88.0	88.0	88.0	89.5	86.0	87.9	17.0	-1.0	-0.06
10	Sevilla	88.0	88.5	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.7	11.0	-1.0	-0.09
17	Newcastle United	88.0	88.0	88.5	88.5	86.0	87.8	19.0	-2.0	-0.11
6	Ajax	90.0	90.0	89.5	89.5	87.0	89.2	7.0	-1.0	-0.14
11	Leverkusen	90.0	88.0	91.5	89.5	84.0	88.6	13.0	-2.0	-0.15
14	CSKA Moskva	90.0	89.0	88.0	89.0	85.0	88.2	20.0	-6.0	-0.3
4	Southampton	89.0	89.0	91.0	91.0	87.0	89.4	6.0	-2.0	-0.33
9	Fenerbahçe SK	89.0	89.0	89.0	89.5	88.0	88.9	14.0	-5.0	-0.36
1	Manchester United	94.0	91.0	91.5	92.0	87.0	91.1	2.0	-1.0	-0.5
2	Internazionale	91.0	91.5	92.0	91.0	86.0	90.3	4.0	-2.0	-0.5
8	Shakhtar Donetsk	89.0	89.0	89.0	90.0	88.0	89.0	18.0	-10.0	-0.56

AC Milan out perform the rest, Napoli put in a good turn.

PSG and Man City the worse performers

This year I will rate teams by raw and skewed value added, which divides value added by finishing position. This works particularly well for judging performance above the level expected but less well for -ve scores .

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finish	VA	skew
20	AC Milan	89.0	90.0	90.5	88.0	86.0	88.7	6.0	14.0	2.333
11	SSC Napoli	90.0	90.0	91.5	91.0	87.0	89.9	5.0	6.0	1.2
16	FC Porto	90.0	89.5	90.5	89.5	87.0	89.3	10.0	6.0	0.6
12	Dortmund	89.0	90.5	92.0	91.0	87.0	89.9	9.0	3.0	0.333
17	Monchengladbach	90.0	89.0	90.0	91.0	86.0	89.2	14.0	3.0	0.214
14	Valencia CF	90.0	90.0	91.0	90.0	88.0	89.8	13.0	1.0	0.077
18	Atlético Madrid	91.0	90.0	89.5	89.5	86.0	89.2	17.0	1.0	0.059
19	Zenit	91.0	89.0	89.0	89.0	87.0	89.0	18.0	1.0	0.056
3	Real Madrid	92.0	92.5	94.0	94.5	86.0	91.8	3.0	0.0	0
4	Juventus	94.0	92.5	91.5	92.5	88.0	91.7	4.0	0.0	0
1	Bayern	92.0	93.0	94.0	98.0	90.0	93.4	1.0	0.0	0
2	Barcelona	96.0	93.0	93.5	97.5	85.0	93.0	2.0	0.0	0
7	Tottenham Hotspur	92.0	90.5	92.0	90.5	87.0	90.4	8.0	-1.0	-0.13
9	Liverpool	90.0	92.0	90.0	92.5	86.0	90.1	11.0	-2.0	-0.18
15	SS Lazio	89.0	89.5	90.0	92.5	87.0	89.6	20.0	-5.0	-0.25
5	Chelsea	93.0	90.0	91.0	94.5	85.0	90.7	7.0	-2.0	-0.29
13	Schalke	89.0	90.5	91.0	92.5	86.0	89.8	19.0	-6.0	-0.32
10	Arsenal	89.0	90.0	91.5	91.5	88.0	90.0	15.0	-5.0	-0.33
6	Paris Saint-Germain	88.0	92.0	92.0	94.5	87.0	90.7	12.0	-6.0	-0.5
8	Manchester City	91.0	90.0	91.0	92.0	87.0	90.2	16.0	-8.0	-0.5

Difficult to look past the super team of Torino, so who will finish second.

You could easily argue that D5 follows the pattern of D1,2,4 only broken by the free spirited thinkers of D3 , that there must be 2 teams much better than all the rest. Is this some kind of evolutionary state or just coincidence?

Torino have a side capable of winning D3 or 4 , and more than capable of surviving in D2 . Should be a walk in the park.  Celta Vigo are a very different team, they love their midfield and use it to gain plenty of possession, even in games they have lost, they get 50% more than their opponents . These two teams should top the division or at very least gain an easy promotion.

Twente are a similar team to Celta but with a more attacking flare, in may ways Celtic match them swapping a stronger keeper for a weaker defence.  The currently under performing Espanyol look to offer a more balanced approach, but that doesn't seem to be working at the moment. You probably need 87.0 plus to survive D4, which would mean any team down to Cologne could look to a play off spot. Cologne could well be the big shock team , so long as they don't get any injuries.

As there is no relegation, one looks at the likely teams for  the sack race. Brugge and Partizan lack depth, Brugge have a decent midfield and so should be able to grind out draws and wins , that Partizan won't be able to convert long term. It will also be interesting to see how Bremen and Anderlecht cope long term minus an 87 keeper, there are alternatives at externals, so I would sacrifice a player to pick one up now , it could mean Bremen pushing for the playoffs and at worse Anderlecht being secure.

While I am at it there are some really odd teams in this division, Can't understand why you would need 11 attacking midfielders in a squad of 50 but hey , who am I to know, I suppose that is the wild wild west of D5.

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	Torino	89.0	88.0	88.5	90.0	87.0	88.5
2	Celta Vigo	88.0	89.0	89.5	87.5	86.0	88.0
3	FC Twente	87.0	87.5	88.5	88.5	86.0	87.5
4	RCD Espanyol	88.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	86.0	87.3
5	Celtic	88.0	86.0	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.2
6	H. Berlin	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.0	85.0	87.2
7	Levante UD	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.2
8	Dynamo Moskva	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.0	87.1
9	Cologne	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.5	84.0	87.1
10	Independiente	87.0	87.0	87.5	88.0	85.0	86.9
11	Santos FC	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.0	85.0	86.8
12	Málaga CF	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.0	86.0	86.8
13	Rubin Kazan	88.0	86.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.8
14	Bremen	86.0	87.0	88.5	87.0	85.0	86.7
15	Flamengo	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.7
16	Augsburg	88.0	86.5	86.5	87.0	85.0	86.6
17	RSC Anderlecht	86.0	86.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.4
18	West Bromwich Albion	87.0	86.5	86.0	87.5	85.0	86.4
19	Club Brugge KV	87.0	86.5	88.0	87.0	83.0	86.3
20	FK Partizan	87.0	86.5	87.0	87.5	83.0	86.2

There should be two teams already dominating this division. Monaco and Olympiacos.  While not doing badly, they are 5 points away from where they should be.

Division 4 too a certain extent follows the pattern in divisions 1 and 2 . Two teams much better than the rest with a pack of decent teams following on.

It isn't hard to see Monaco as out and out favourites for this division  but a weak keeper lets them down and leaves them vunerable. Sure they have a 90 rated front line but if you have an 89 rated front line and an 89 rated keeper you can give as good as you get. Olympiacos have exactly that but have a slight weakness in the back line.

Then a whole pack of team will be looking at the final promotion and play off spot.  West Ham look favoured but AZ and St Etienne have stronger keepers even if they have a weaker defence. 

In fact statistically you would need around an average of 87.2 to survive in D3 so we could go down as far as Hoffenheim to look for a possible play off team. The big shock could be Dinamo Zagreb who have gone for strength over depth. A risky tactic but it could pay off in an otherwise weaker division. 

Chievo on the other hand could struggle to get any where near their 5th spot with the joint worse keeper in the league. 

At the wrong end it really is tight. Any team from Sassuolo down are possible relegation candidates. All four relegation spots are filled by teams in the lowest 8 statistically. 

River Plate also try strength over depth but so far it isn't paying off, as one key injury leaves them vunerable . Dnipro are going great guns at the moment, especially since they have had no easy fixtures.  I can't see Montpellier staying up as they have much the weakest starting team and their compatriots Bordeaux aren't far behind. 

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	AS Monaco	88.0	89.5	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.9
2	Olympiacos	89.0	88.0	89.0	89.5	86.0	88.3
3	West Ham United	88.0	88.5	88.0	89.5	86.0	88.0
4	AZ Alkmaar	89.0	87.0	87.5	89.0	86.0	87.7
5	Chievo Verona	87.0	88.5	89.0	88.0	86.0	87.7
6	AS Saint-Etienne	89.0	87.5	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.7
7	Hellas Verona	88.0	87.0	88.5	88.0	86.0	87.5
8	Standard Liège	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.5
9	Lille OSC	89.0	87.0	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.5
10	Atalanta BC	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.0	86.0	87.4
11	Hoffenheim	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	86.0	87.4
12	Sassuolo	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.2
13	Feyenoord	88.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	86.0	87.1
14	Dinamo Zagreb	89.0	87.0	87.5	87.5	84.0	87.0
15	Dynamo Kyiv	87.0	87.5	88.5	87.0	85.0	87.0
16	Sampdoria	88.0	87.5	87.0	87.5	85.0	87.0
17	Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	88.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.9
18	Girondins Bordeaux	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	85.0	86.9
19	Montpellier HSC	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	86.0	86.9
20	River Plate	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	83.0	86.8

Is Division 3 the melting pot of the Top 100 where great teams are formed while other former giants fade away?

Unlike D1 and 2 , while there are 2 better teams, they aren't that much better. One major difference is that there is a huge tail of weaker teams with little or nothing to choose between them.

Athletic Club and PSV lead the pack, and with that all important 90 rated keeper and with the Bilbao team have a 90 rated strike force they will still be favourites.

Leicseter will look to strangle other teams with their possesion of the ball, Marseille are perhaps the most potent up top ,and must seek to dominate the opponents defence.. Statistically you will need around 87.7 to survive in the higher division. Thus realistically any team down to Sporting Lisbon should be fighting for a play off spot by the end of the season.

Besitkas should be the big early season surprise, but with their keeper all but guaranteed a drop in rating and the mercurial Kaka should also fall. So like Christmas when the decorations come down , so will their form.
Lokomotiv also have the talent for an early season bid, and  argue that Sunderland and Udinese have the potential to maintain their form during the season a whole.

Down at the sticky end of the wicket, it is hard to say how Cruziero with their generally weaker squad and Palace sadly lacking depth can avoid the drop. Boca's dedication to all things Argentinian is admirable but perhaps will be their undoing.

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	Athletic Club	90.0	88.5	88.0	90.0	87.0	88.7
2	PSV	90.0	89.0	88.5	88.0	87.0	88.5
3	Leicester City	89.0	88.0	90.0	89.5	85.0	88.3
4	Villarreal CF	88.0	88.5	89.0	88.5	87.0	88.2
5	Olympique Marseille	88.0	87.0	89.0	90.5	86.0	88.1
6	Swansea City	88.0	88.0	87.5	89.5	87.0	88.0
7	Hamburg	88.0	88.5	88.5	89.5	85.0	87.9
8	Stuttgart	88.0	88.0	87.5	89.0	87.0	87.9
9	Stoke City	89.0	88.0	88.0	89.0	85.0	87.8
10	SPORTING CP	88.0	87.5	89.0	89.0	85.0	87.7
11	Udinese Calcio	87.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	87.0	87.6
12	Besiktas JK	91.0	86.5	88.0	87.0	85.0	87.5
13	Lokomotiv Moskva	87.0	88.0	88.0	89.0	84.0	87.2
14	FC Basel	87.0	87.0	88.5	88.5	85.0	87.2
15	Galatasaray SK	87.0	87.0	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.2
16	São Paulo FC	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	86.0	87.1
17	Sunderland	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.1
18	Boca Juniors	88.0	87.0	87.0	88.0	85.0	87.0
19	Crystal Palace	88.0	87.5	88.0	87.5	84.0	87.0
20	Cruzeiro	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.6

Division 2, in someways a copy of division 1, 2 clubs a cut and above the rest. One side who seem to be in desperate trouble.

Anything other than automatic promotion would be a disgrace for Man Utd and Inter who were two of the most under performing teams last year.  Both should sit comfortably in the middle of Division 1. How much the great keeper Man Utd have is skewing their performance is hard to say, but as it is one player that is never injured then I expect them to do well.

Southampton if they can keep it clean at the back should get plenty of possession to feed their attacking duo, Roma should also challenge for the 3rd automatic spot.  Realistically any team rate 89.2 or above could survive in D1 , so we look down as far as Ajax for the likely playoff contenders, which is a little higher than normal.

Leverkeusen could be the biggest surprise but they lack any real depth and after last years miserable performance they really must do better.  There are 5 obvious relegation candidates,.
Aston Villa have a reasonable attack and could survive. Newcastle have a slightly better midfield,  Benfica are potent upfront but lack depth and defence. Inter also lack depth  ,Spartak however are much the weakest in defence. 

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	Manchester United	94.0	91.0	91.5	92.0	87.0	91.1
2	Internazionale	91.0	91.5	92.0	91.0	86.0	90.3
3	Everton	90.0	89.5	91.0	90.0	88.0	89.7
4	Southampton	89.0	89.0	91.0	91.0	87.0	89.4
5	AS Roma	91.0	90.5	91.0	90.5	84.0	89.4
6	Ajax	90.0	90.0	89.5	89.5	87.0	89.2
7	Wolfsburg	89.0	89.0	89.5	92.0	86.0	89.1
8	Shakhtar Donetsk	89.0	89.0	89.0	90.0	88.0	89.0
9	Fenerbahçe SK	89.0	89.0	89.0	89.5	88.0	88.9
10	Sevilla	88.0	88.5	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.7
11	Leverkusen	90.0	88.0	91.5	89.5	84.0	88.6
12	Genoa CFC	89.0	88.5	89.0	88.0	87.0	88.3
13	Olympique Lyonnais	88.0	88.5	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.3
14	CSKA Moskva	90.0	89.0	88.0	89.0	85.0	88.2
15	ACF Fiorentina	88.0	89.0	89.5	88.0	86.0	88.1
16	Aston Villa	88.0	88.0	88.0	89.5	86.0	87.9
17	Newcastle United	88.0	88.0	88.5	88.5	86.0	87.8
18	SL Benfica	88.0	87.0	89.5	90.5	83.0	87.6
19	SC Internacional	88.0	87.5	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.4
20	Spartak Moskva	88.0	86.5	88.5	87.5	85.0	87.1

Who should win and who is odds on for the chop.

As ever Bayern and Barcelona dominate, at the other end it is hard to see how AC Milan will finish outside the relegation zone.

Firstly , this table is pure statistics. I look at each team, if in doubt I look at 442 or 352 as the more common formations. This year I have removed Top15 and Top21 and replaced that by Top18 , the 18th best player , not including duplicate keeper. The reason for this is that top sides were getting a double bonus from already good players , other strong sides had results skewed by players who were never going to play ( good or bad ).

 

GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Average 1 Bayern 92.0 93.0 94.0 98.0 90.0 93.4 2 Barcelona 96.0 93.0 93.5 97.5 85.0 93.0 3 Real Madrid 92.0 92.5 94.0 94.5 86.0 91.8 4 Juventus 94.0 92.5 91.5 92.5 88.0 91.7 5 Chelsea 93.0 90.0 91.0 94.5 85.0 90.7 6 Paris Saint-Germain 88.0 92.0 92.0 94.5 87.0 90.7 7 Tottenham Hotspur 92.0 90.5 92.0 90.5 87.0 90.4 8 Manchester City 91.0 90.0 91.0 92.0 87.0 90.2 9 Liverpool 90.0 92.0 90.0 92.5 86.0 90.1 10 Arsenal 89.0 90.0 91.5 91.5 88.0 90.0 11 SSC Napoli 90.0 90.0 91.5 91.0 87.0 89.9 12 Dortmund 89.0 90.5 92.0 91.0 87.0 89.9 13 Schalke 89.0 90.5 91.0 92.5 86.0 89.8 14 Valencia CF 90.0 90.0 91.0 90.0 88.0 89.8 15 SS Lazio 89.0 89.5 90.0 92.5 87.0 89.6 16 FC Porto 90.0 89.5 90.5 89.5 87.0 89.3 17 Monchengladbach 90.0 89.0 90.0 91.0 86.0 89.2 18 Atlético Madrid 91.0 90.0 89.5 89.5 86.0 89.2 19 Zenit 91.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 87.0 89.0 20 AC Milan 89.0 90.0 90.5 88.0 86.0 88.7

Bayern clearly have the best over all team. Barcelona sit a little behind but are much more vunerable to injuries during the season.  Real and Juve make up the usual top 4. Of the rest Chelsea have the capability to make the top 4 as do Tottenham and Man City on a good day.

The joker in the pack surely must be PSG do they have a decent keeper coming in , if not they will finish a lot lower than the predicted 7th spot, if so then they could finish 4th or 5th.

From 8th to 15th it really will be about manager skill, as the teams are so closely packed in terms of ability. At the lower end,  Porto and Milan will stuggle to impress against the lower teams. Zenit and Atletico lean heavily on their keeper, Atletico may will expect a boost during the season, Zenit may not be so lucky.

The team that will really suffer is AC Milan, promotion is a mixed blessing at the best of times, but they are probably the team least able to score against others and despite a good keeper and defence they are likely to see the ball half as often as they did against Schalke at the weekend. It would be a huge achievement if Mr Beddows keeps them out of the sack race.