Division 3 , stuck in the middle for you.

Is Division 3 the melting pot of the Top 100 where great teams are formed while other former giants fade away?

Unlike D1 and 2 , while there are 2 better teams, they aren't that much better. One major difference is that there is a huge tail of weaker teams with little or nothing to choose between them.

Athletic Club and PSV lead the pack, and with that all important 90 rated keeper and with the Bilbao team have a 90 rated strike force they will still be favourites.

Leicseter will look to strangle other teams with their possesion of the ball, Marseille are perhaps the most potent up top ,and must seek to dominate the opponents defence.. Statistically you will need around 87.7 to survive in the higher division. Thus realistically any team down to Sporting Lisbon should be fighting for a play off spot by the end of the season.

Besitkas should be the big early season surprise, but with their keeper all but guaranteed a drop in rating and the mercurial Kaka should also fall. So like Christmas when the decorations come down , so will their form.
Lokomotiv also have the talent for an early season bid, and  argue that Sunderland and Udinese have the potential to maintain their form during the season a whole.

Down at the sticky end of the wicket, it is hard to say how Cruziero with their generally weaker squad and Palace sadly lacking depth can avoid the drop. Boca's dedication to all things Argentinian is admirable but perhaps will be their undoing.
GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Average
1 Athletic Club 90.0 88.5 88.0 90.0 87.0 88.7
2 PSV 90.0 89.0 88.5 88.0 87.0 88.5
3 Leicester City 89.0 88.0 90.0 89.5 85.0 88.3
4 Villarreal CF 88.0 88.5 89.0 88.5 87.0 88.2
5 Olympique Marseille 88.0 87.0 89.0 90.5 86.0 88.1
6 Swansea City 88.0 88.0 87.5 89.5 87.0 88.0
7 Hamburg 88.0 88.5 88.5 89.5 85.0 87.9
8 Stuttgart 88.0 88.0 87.5 89.0 87.0 87.9
9 Stoke City 89.0 88.0 88.0 89.0 85.0 87.8
10 SPORTING CP 88.0 87.5 89.0 89.0 85.0 87.7
11 Udinese Calcio 87.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 87.0 87.6
12 Besiktas JK 91.0 86.5 88.0 87.0 85.0 87.5
13 Lokomotiv Moskva 87.0 88.0 88.0 89.0 84.0 87.2
14 FC Basel 87.0 87.0 88.5 88.5 85.0 87.2
15 Galatasaray SK 87.0 87.0 87.5 88.5 86.0 87.2
16 São Paulo FC 87.0 87.0 88.0 87.5 86.0 87.1
17 Sunderland 87.0 87.0 87.0 87.5 87.0 87.1
18 Boca Juniors 88.0 87.0 87.0 88.0 85.0 87.0
19 Crystal Palace 88.0 87.5 88.0 87.5 84.0 87.0
20 Cruzeiro 87.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 85.0 86.6

Division 2 stats and facts, who is ready for the big chair?

Division 2, in someways a copy of division 1, 2 clubs a cut and above the rest. One side who seem to be in desperate trouble.

Anything other than automatic promotion would be a disgrace for Man Utd and Inter who were two of the most under performing teams last year.  Both should sit comfortably in the middle of Division 1. How much the great keeper Man Utd have is skewing their performance is hard to say, but as it is one player that is never injured then I expect them to do well.

Southampton if they can keep it clean at the back should get plenty of possession to feed their attacking duo, Roma should also challenge for the 3rd automatic spot.  Realistically any team rate 89.2 or above could survive in D1 , so we look down as far as Ajax for the likely playoff contenders, which is a little higher than normal.

Leverkeusen could be the biggest surprise but they lack any real depth and after last years miserable performance they really must do better.  There are 5 obvious relegation candidates,.
Aston Villa have a reasonable attack and could survive. Newcastle have a slightly better midfield,  Benfica are potent upfront but lack depth and defence. Inter also lack depth  ,Spartak however are much the weakest in defence. 
GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Average
1 Manchester United 94.0 91.0 91.5 92.0 87.0 91.1
2 Internazionale 91.0 91.5 92.0 91.0 86.0 90.3
3 Everton 90.0 89.5 91.0 90.0 88.0 89.7
4 Southampton 89.0 89.0 91.0 91.0 87.0 89.4
5 AS Roma 91.0 90.5 91.0 90.5 84.0 89.4
6 Ajax 90.0 90.0 89.5 89.5 87.0 89.2
7 Wolfsburg 89.0 89.0 89.5 92.0 86.0 89.1
8 Shakhtar Donetsk 89.0 89.0 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
9 Fenerbahçe SK 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.5 88.0 88.9
10 Sevilla 88.0 88.5 90.0 90.0 87.0 88.7
11 Leverkusen 90.0 88.0 91.5 89.5 84.0 88.6
12 Genoa CFC 89.0 88.5 89.0 88.0 87.0 88.3
13 Olympique Lyonnais 88.0 88.5 88.5 89.5 87.0 88.3
14 CSKA Moskva 90.0 89.0 88.0 89.0 85.0 88.2
15 ACF Fiorentina 88.0 89.0 89.5 88.0 86.0 88.1
16 Aston Villa 88.0 88.0 88.0 89.5 86.0 87.9
17 Newcastle United 88.0 88.0 88.5 88.5 86.0 87.8
18 SL Benfica 88.0 87.0 89.5 90.5 83.0 87.6
19 SC Internacional 88.0 87.5 88.0 88.5 85.0 87.4
20 Spartak Moskva 88.0 86.5 88.5 87.5 85.0 87.1

Division 1 Season 4 Stats and Facts

Who should win and who is odds on for the chop.


As ever Bayern and Barcelona dominate, at the other end it is hard to see how AC Milan will finish outside the relegation zone.


Firstly , this table is pure statistics. I look at each team, if in doubt I look at 442 or 352 as the more common formations. This year I have removed Top15 and Top21 and replaced that by Top18 , the 18th best player , not including duplicate keeper. The reason for this is that top sides were getting a double bonus from already good players , other strong sides had results skewed by players who were never going to play ( good or bad ).

 



GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Average
1 Bayern 92.0 93.0 94.0 98.0 90.0 93.4
2 Barcelona 96.0 93.0 93.5 97.5 85.0 93.0
3 Real Madrid 92.0 92.5 94.0 94.5 86.0 91.8
4 Juventus 94.0 92.5 91.5 92.5 88.0 91.7
5 Chelsea 93.0 90.0 91.0 94.5 85.0 90.7
6 Paris Saint-Germain 88.0 92.0 92.0 94.5 87.0 90.7
7 Tottenham Hotspur 92.0 90.5 92.0 90.5 87.0 90.4
8 Manchester City 91.0 90.0 91.0 92.0 87.0 90.2
9 Liverpool 90.0 92.0 90.0 92.5 86.0 90.1
10 Arsenal 89.0 90.0 91.5 91.5 88.0 90.0
11 SSC Napoli 90.0 90.0 91.5 91.0 87.0 89.9
12 Dortmund 89.0 90.5 92.0 91.0 87.0 89.9
13 Schalke 89.0 90.5 91.0 92.5 86.0 89.8
14 Valencia CF 90.0 90.0 91.0 90.0 88.0 89.8
15 SS Lazio 89.0 89.5 90.0 92.5 87.0 89.6
16 FC Porto 90.0 89.5 90.5 89.5 87.0 89.3
17 Monchengladbach 90.0 89.0 90.0 91.0 86.0 89.2
18 Atlético Madrid 91.0 90.0 89.5 89.5 86.0 89.2
19 Zenit 91.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 87.0 89.0
20 AC Milan 89.0 90.0 90.5 88.0 86.0 88.7









































































































































































Bayern clearly have the best over all team. Barcelona sit a little behind but are much more vunerable to injuries during the season.  Real and Juve make up the usual top 4. Of the rest Chelsea have the capability to make the top 4 as do Tottenham and Man City on a good day.

The joker in the pack surely must be PSG do they have a decent keeper coming in , if not they will finish a lot lower than the predicted 7th spot, if so then they could finish 4th or 5th.

From 8th to 15th it really will be about manager skill, as the teams are so closely packed in terms of ability. At the lower end,  Porto and Milan will stuggle to impress against the lower teams. Zenit and Atletico lean heavily on their keeper, Atletico may will expect a boost during the season, Zenit may not be so lucky.

The team that will really suffer is AC Milan, promotion is a mixed blessing at the best of times, but they are probably the team least able to score against others and despite a good keeper and defence they are likely to see the ball half as often as they did against Schalke at the weekend. It would be a huge achievement if Mr Beddows keeps them out of the sack race.

Div 5 Value added

For the last time for now…

At the start of the season, all teams were rated according to the team rating in 6 key categories.

Then the finishing position was deducted from that to calculate the value added.
So week done Brugge and Kazan,  Celta Vigo and Espanyol must look to improve.


























































  Gk Def Mid Att Top15 Top21 Ave Predict Finish Value
Club Brugge KV 87 86 88 87 85 83 86 15  5  10
Rubin Kazan 87 87 86 87 85 83 85.83 18  10  8
Flamengo 87 86 87 88 86 85 86.5 10  4  6
Dinamo Zagreb 89 87 87 87 85 82 86.17 13  7  6
Standard Liège 88 87 87 87 86 85 86.67 7  3  4
FK Partizan 87 86 87 88 85 80 85.5 19  18  1
Dynamo Kyiv 87 87 88 88 86 86 87 3  2  1
Olympiacos 89 89 89 89 87 85 88 1  1  0
Levante UD 88 88 86 87 85 82 86 16  16  0
Independiente 87 86 87 88 85 82 85.83 17  17  0
Augsburg 88 86 86 87 83 80 85 20  20  0
H. Berlin 88 88 88 88 86 82 86.67 8  9  -1
Celtic 88 86 87 88 86 86 86.83 4  6  -2
Bremen 86 87 87 87 86 85 86.33 12  14  -2
Santos FC 87 87 88 87 87 85 86.83 5  8  -3
RSC Anderlecht 87 87 87 87 86 85 86.5 9  13  -4
FC Twente 87 86 87 87 86 85 86.33 11  15  -4
West Bromwich Albion 87 87 87 87 85 84 86.17 14  19  -5
RCD Espanyol 88 87 87 87 86 85 86.67 6  12  -6
Celta Vigo 87 88 89 87 86 86 87.17 2  11  -9





































































































































Read More →

Div 3 value added

Ok to repeat , all teams were rated purely statistically , the finishing position calculated, the final position has been deducted and that gives you the value added , the higher the better.
 So well done Southampton, PSV, Leicester,
Monaco, St Etienne and Hoffenheim need to improve.




 Gk Def Mid Att Top15 Top21 Average Predict Finish Value
Southampton 89 89 87 89 85 80 86.5 16  6  10
PSV 87 88 87 88 85 84 86.5 15  5  10
Leicester City 89 88 88 90 84 80 86.5 14  4  10
SC Internacional 88 87 88 88 86 85 87 10  3  7
Galatasaray SK 87 88 88 88 84 80 85.83 20  13  7
Cruzeiro 87 87 87 87 86 85 86.5 17  10  7
Crystal Palace 87 87 88 87 85 82 86 18  12  6
Genoa CFC 89 88 89 90 86 82 87.33 6  2  4
Aston Villa 88 88 87 88 87 86 87.33 5  1  4
Sunderland 87 87 87 87 86 86 86.67 13  11  2
Girondins Bordeaux 88 87 88 88 85 80 86 19  20  -1
Swansea City 88 87 88 89 86 83 86.83 11  14  -3
Udinese Calcio 87 87 87 88 87 85 86.83 12  16  -4
Besiktas JK 88 87 88 89 87 87 87.67 4  8  -4
Olympique Marseille 91 88 89 89 86 85 88 2  7  -5
Athletic Club 90 88 88 88 87 86 87.83 3  9  -6
Stoke City 89 88 88 89 87 82 87.17 7  15  -8
Hoffenheim 88 87 87 88 86 86 87 8  18  -10
AS Saint-Etienne 89 87 88 87 86 85 87 9  19  -10
AS Monaco 88 89 89 90 87 86 88.17 1  17  -16

Div 4 value added

Value added. Did you let your team down or did the players perform superbly.
 Sao Paulo and Feyenord at 16 and 14 + worthy promoted teams. Terrible Torino nad Dnipro who should have been top finish at the wrong end of the table.





 Gk Def Mid Att Top15 Top21 Average Pred
Finish  Value
São Paulo FC 87 87 88 87 85 83 86.17 18 
2  16
Feyenoord 88 86 87 87 84 84 86 19 
5  14
Villarreal CF 88 89 88 87 86 85 87.17 8 
1  7
Sassuolo 88 87 87 88 85 83 86.33 17 
11  6
Hamburg 88 87 88 89 86 85 87.17 6 
3  3
Cologne 88 87 88 88 84 79 85.67 20 
17  3
Sampdoria 88 88 87 88 86 85 87 10 
8  2
Hellas Verona 87 87 87 88 86 86 86.83 12 
10  2
River Plate 88 87 88 87 85 83 86.33 16 
15  1
Atalanta BC 88 87 88 88 86 82 86.5 14 
13  1
Lille OSC 89 87 88 88 86 85 87.17 9 
9  0
Stuttgart 88 87 88 88 87 86 87.33 5 
6  -1
Chievo Verona 88 88 88 89 87 86 87.67 2 
4  -2
West Ham United 88 88 88 88 87 85 87.33 4 
7  -3
Montpellier HSC 87 87 88 88 86 85 86.83 11 
14  -3
Dynamo Moskva 87 87 87 87 86 85 86.5 15 
19  -4
AZ 89 87 88 88 86 85 87.17 7 
12  -5
Málaga CF 87 87 88 86 86 85 86.5 13 
20  -7
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 88 87 88 88 87 86 87.33 3 
16  -13
Torino 89 89 88 90 87 85 88 1 
18  -17

Division 1 Value added

Value added is the true measure of manager greatness.

= Predicted position - Final position. All statistically done. . So Dortmund performed the best , Man Utd the worse




Gk Def Mid Att Top15 Top21
Predicted Finished Value
Dortmund 89 91 92 92 87 82 88.83 17.00 6  11.00
Liverpool 90 90 92 91 88 86 89.5 10.00 5  5.00
FC Porto 91 89 90 91 88 86 89.17 15.00 10  5.00
Schalke 89 90 90 91 88 83 88.5 19.00 15  4.00
SS Lazio 89 89 90 93 88 87 89.33 12.00 9  3.00
Valencia CF 90 90 91 90 89 85 89.17 14.00 12  2.00
SSC Napoli 90 90 92 92 89 87 90 8.00 7  1.00
Real Madrid 92 93 94 94 90 87 91.67 3.00 3  0.00
Juventus 94 92 92 92 89 88 91.17 4.00 4  0.00
Bayern 89 93 94 98 93 84 91.83 2.00 2  0.00
Barcelona 96 93 94 97 88 85 92.17 1.00 1  0.00
Atlético Madrid 91 90 89 90 88 87 89.17 16.00 16  0.00
ACF FIORENTINA 88 89 88 90 87 86 88 20.00 20  0.00
Leverkusen 90 89 91 90 87 85 88.67 18.00 19  -1.00
Chelsea 93 90 91 94 87 82 89.5 11.00 13  -2.00
Arsenal 92 92 91 92 89 88 90.67 5.00 8  -3.00
Paris Saint-Germain 90 91 92 94 89 85 90.17 7.00 11  -4.00
Manchester City 91 90 91 93 88 87 90 9.00 14  -5.00
Fenerbahçe SK 89 89 90 91 88 88 89.17 13.00 18  -5.00
Manchester United 94 90 92 92 89 85 90.33 6.00 17  -11.00










0.00










4.483302

Read More →

Div 2 Value Added

How it works
Value added = Predict Position - Actual position , higher the better. Well done Spartak, not so well done Inter.






 GK Def Mid Att Top15 Top21 Ave Predicted Finished Value
Spartak Moskva 86 88 88 88 87 86 87.17 15  8  7
SL Benfica 88 87 88 89 85 83 86.67 20  14  6
Shakhtar Donetsk 89 89 90 89 87 83 87.83 11  5  6
Newcastle United 88 87 89 89 86 84 87.17 16  11  5
AC Milan 89 89 90 90 88 85 88.5 6  2  4
Ajax 91 89 89 89 87 84 88.17 9  6  3
Lokomotiv Moskva 87 88 88 89 87 82 86.83 19  17  2
Tottenham Hotspur 92 90 92 90 88 87 89.83 1  1  0
Monchengladbach 90 89 90 91 87 86 88.83 3  3  0
Sevilla 88 89 89 90 88 86 88.33 8  9  -1
FC Basel 87 87 87 89 86 85 86.83 18  19  -1
Zenit 90 89 89 89 88 87 88.67 5  7  -2
AS Roma 90 89 92 91 88 84 89 2  4  -2
Sporting CP 88 87 88 88 86 84 86.83 17  20  -3
Wolfsburg 89 87 89 89 87 83 87.33 14  10  -4
Olympique Lyonnais 88 89 88 88 87 86 87.67 12  16  -4
Everton 90 90 90 89 87 85 88.5 7  12  -5
CSKA Moskva 90 88 89 89 87 85 88 10  15  -5
Boca Juniors 88 87 89 88 86 86 87.33 13  18  -5
Internazionale 91 90 89 90 87 86 88.83 4  13  -9

Read More →

Fiorentina mid season review.

Fiorentina , the long good bye, mid season review.

 

The situation looks bleak and is bleak.

With no win in any competition since Jul 19th the only hope is to avoid the sack but even that would need a dramatic change in form.

 Statistically and in reality the weakest team in Division 1 , it would need a minor miracle to avoid any thing other than the wooden spoon.

After a poor start and realistically facing teams it is nigh on impossible to beat, a good cup run, a good win and draws against better teams saw Fiorentina on the up.

However the fact of the matter is that with a leading scorer on 5 goals , and attack argueably the stongest part of the team, a team that doesn't play to it's strength is likely to come of worse.

The one and only highlight is the addition of some good youngsters which should help the new manager whoever that will be. Not to say I have given up but without a single home win in the league, the sack is coming for sure.

Division 5 the only way is up Stats and Facts

Olympiacos, Kiev and Celta Vigo should claim the top 3 spots leaving a scrap for the play off spots.


While not doing so well at the moment Olympiacos are a cut above the other teams. Virtually an 89 all round team , they could compete in any division. 


If one suggests that above 86.50 would be enough to fight for and gain promotion, any team down to Berlin has a chance.  Celta Vigo and Kiev should be top candidates for auto promotion.  With the exception of Hertha Berlin all the top 10 or so have fair depth in their squad. 

It might just be me , but I can't understand D5 teams have 4 or 5 players in one position , who never play but then have an obvious weakness elsewhere, I'm sure an exchange could easily be arranged.  With no relegation the sack race should be between any of the lowest 6 rated teams.  FK Partizan and Augsburg may be over performing at the moment but as the season goes on I expect Levante and Bremen to rapidly improve.

It may seem obvious but as time goes on Division 5 will slowly lose quality teams. 4 go up , 4 worse come down etc each season until you rinse and repeat those already promoted. 

Good luck to you all. 

 

  Gk Def Mid Att Top15 Top21 Ave
Olympiacos 89 89 89 89 87 85 88.00
Celta Vigo 87 88 89 87 86 86 87.17
Dynamo Kyiv 87 87 88 88 86 86 87.00
Celtic 88 86 87 88 86 86 86.83
Santos FC 87 87 88 87 87 85 86.83
RCD Espanyol 88 87 87 87 86 85 86.67
Standard Liège 88 87 87 87 86 85 86.67
H. Berlin 88 88 88 88 86 82 86.67
RSC Anderlecht 87 87 87 87 86 85 86.50
Flamengo 87 86 87 88 86 85 86.50
FC Twente 87 86 87 87 86 85 86.33
Bremen 86 87 87 87 86 85 86.33
Dinamo Zagreb 89 87 87 87 85 82 86.17
West Bromwich Albion 87 87 87 87 85 84 86.17
Club Brugge KV 87 86 88 87 85 83 86.00
Levante UD 88 88 86 87 85 82 86.00
Independiente 87 86 87 88 85 82 85.83
Rubin Kazan 87 87 86 87 85 83 85.83
FK Partizan 87 86 87 88 85 80 85.50
Augsburg 88 86 86 87 83 80 85.00