Division 4 Season 5 value added.

The two Moscow clubs top the charts, predicted 3rd place team Leicester -16VA

A don't think it is a shock to see CSKA top for PVA , narrowly ahead of Athletic club and Sampdoria who were also promoted.  Top raw VA went to Lokomotive ,who fell at the last hurdle. Notable performances by Besitkas, Galatasary and Marseille , keeping themselves out of harms way and with a small injection of talent heading in the right direction next season.

At the wrong end PSV get the lowest PVA, top side finishes 11th,  narrownly above predicted 2nd who came 16th Shaktar and the most inept performance was Leicester who predicted 3rd got -16VA and were then relegated.  Boca who should have challenged for the play off also got -10VA.

A much bigger spread in D3 than D1 or D2

	GK	Def	Mid	Att	Top18	Ave	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
CSKA Moskva	89	88.3	88	89	86	88.1	8	1	7	8.00
Sampdoria	88	87.5	87.8	88.5	86	87.6	11	3	8	3.00
Lokomotiv Moskva	88	88	88.3	89	84	87.5	14	4	10	2.75
Athletic Club	89	88.3	89	88	87	88.3	4	2	2	1.50
AS Saint-Etienne	89	88.3	87.5	88	87	88	9	5	4	1.00
Sassuolo	88	88	88	88.5	85	87.5	12	7	5	0.86
Hellas Verona	88	87.5	88.5	88	86	87.6	10	6	4	0.83
Galatasaray SK	87	87.3	88.5	88	85	87.2	16	10	6	0.70
Beşiktaş JK	87	86	88.3	89	85	87.1	18	12	6	0.58
Hamburg	87	87.5	89	88	86	87.5	13	9	4	0.56
Olympique Marseille	86	87.3	87.8	88	86	87	19	13	6	0.54
Cruzeiro	87	87.3	86.8	87	85	86.6	20	15	5	0.40
São Paulo FC	87	87.5	87.5	87.5	86	87.1	17	20	-3	-0.10
Crystal Palace	87	87	88.3	88	86	87.3	15	18	-3	-0.11
Aston Villa	88	88.7	88.5	89.5	86	88.1	5	8	-3	-0.25
Newcastle United	88	88	89.7	89	86	88.1	6	14	-8	-0.50
Boca Juniors	90	88.3	88.3	88	86	88.1	7	17	-10	-0.53
Leicester City	88	88.8	89.7	90.5	86	88.6	3	19	-16	-0.79
Shakhtar Donetsk	90	89	88.5	89.5	87	88.8	2	16	-14	-0.81
PSV	91	89	89.5	89	87	89.1	1	11	-10	-0.82

Division 2 Season 5 Value added , Villareal storm the barricades. Southampton sink into the solent.

+15 PVA and +14 VA, a fantastic performance by Villareal. This somewhat eclipses the +10 VA of Sunderland ,  +9 VA of Internacional and + 7 of Genoa.

Just goes to show the manager makes the differences, at least in division 2. Interestingly it is Genoa and Sunderland and not the more favoured Inter and Wolfsburg who made it to the playoff.

Southampton who should have easily got into the playoffs but finished 11th get the wooden spoon,  Sevilla and Schalke sit just above them , with relegated Sevilla actually having the worse VA.

Upto you to decide is it worse coming 11th when you should have been promoted or coming 20th when you should have come 11th. However since only 6 points seperated 17th to 10th , we can conclude the it is the former rather than the after.

	GK	Def	Mid	Att	Top18	Ave	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
Villarreal CF	88	89.7	88.5	88.5	87	88.3	15	1	14	15.00
Sunderland	88	88.3	88.3	89	87	88.1	16	6	10	1.83
Genoa CFC	89	88	90.3	89.5	85	88.4	14	7	7	1.14
SC Internacional	88	88.3	87.7	87.5	86	87.9	18	9	9	1.11
Internazionale	91	89.7	90.5	88.5	85	88.9	7	4	3	1.00
Wolfsburg	88	89	91	92	85	89	5	3	2	1.00
SL Benfica	88	88.8	90.3	90.5	86	88.7	10	8	2	0.38
Swansea City	88	87.3	88	89	86	87.7	19	17	2	0.18
Spartak Moskva	88	87.7	88.5	88.5	85	87.5	20	18	2	0.17
Atlético Madrid	92	90.3	90.3	90.5	87	90	1	2	-1	0.00
Leverkusen	91	89.7	90.5	89	86	89.2	4	5	-1	0.00
Olympique Lyonnais	88	88.7	88.3	89.5	86	88.1	17	19	-2	-0.05
SPORTING CP	88	88	88.7	89.5	87	88.6	12	14	-2	-0.07
SS Lazio	89	89.3	90.3	89	87	88.9	8	10	-2	-0.10
Fenerbahçe SK	89	87	89	90	87	88.4	13	16	-3	-0.13
ACF Fiorentina	89	88	89.7	89.5	87	88.6	11	15	-4	-0.20
Zenit	91	89	88.5	89.5	87	89	6	12	-6	-0.42
Sevilla	88	89.5	90.3	89.5	87	88.9	9	20	-11	-0.50
Schalke	89	90	90.7	91	86	89.3	3	13	-10	-0.69
Southampton	90	90.5	90.5	90.5	87	89.7	2	11	-9	-0.73

Bayern top the PVA table with Napoli having the best raw score.

O.K. so this year I have sorted according to positional value added. This is the value added +1 / finishing position. 

The idea is that finishing higher up gets you more positive points.

So Bayern who finished top , with a raw VA of +2 get a PVA of +3. I thinking most would agree that the 3rd ranked team finishing top deserve the higest rating,
This puts Napoli with the highest raw score of + 8 in second spot, a fantastic performance  , 8 places higher than their predicted position.
Other notable performances came from Porto with +5 and Ajax +4 , Chelsea also get a mention for the 3rd PVA spot.

At the wrong end Juve on -6 raw score and -0.5 PVA get the wooden spoon,  Barca's fall from grace leaves them 2nd from the end.  Dortmund, Roma and Man City also fall at the end of the table.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Ave	Pr	Fin	VA	PVA
Bayern	92.0	92.5	93.5	96.5	88.0	92.5	3	1	2	3.00
SSC Napoli	90.0	90.5	91.0	91.5	85.0	89.6	15	7	8	1.29
Chelsea	93.0	91.3	92.3	93.0	85.0	90.9	6	4	2	0.75
FC Porto	90.0	90.3	89.5	91.5	86.0	89.5	16	11	5	0.55
Real Madrid	92.0	93.8	93.5	97.0	89.0	93.1	2	2	0	0.50
Paris Saint-Germain	89.0	91.3	92.5	94.5	85.0	90.5	8	6	2	0.50
Ajax	90.0	90.0	89.5	89.0	87.0	89.1	19	15	4	0.33
AC Milan	89.0	89.7	90.5	89.0	86.0	88.8	20	17	3	0.24
Manchester United	94.0	91.3	92.3	93.0	87.0	91.5	5	5	0	0.20
Tottenham Hotspur	91.0	90.7	92.5	90.0	87.0	90.2	9	9	0	0.11
Valencia CF	90.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	88.0	90.1	13	13	0	0.08
Liverpool	90.0	91.0	91.0	93.0	86.0	90.2	11	12	-1	0.00
Everton	89.0	89.5	91.0	89.5	87.0	89.2	18	19	-1	0.00
Arsenal	90.0	91.8	91.5	93.0	88.0	90.9	7	8	-1	0.00
Monchengladbach	90.0	89.0	90.3	91.0	86.0	89.3	17	20	-3	-0.10
Dortmund	89.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	88.0	89.9	14	18	-4	-0.17
AS Roma	92.0	90.0	91.0	91.0	87.0	90.2	12	16	-4	-0.19
Manchester City	89.0	89.5	91.7	94.0	87.0	90.2	10	14	-4	-0.21
Barcelona	96.0	94.0	94.3	97.5	85.0	93.4	1	3	-2	-0.33
Juventus	94.0	92.3	92.3	94.5	89.0	92.4	4	10	-6	-0.50

50% of D5 sides are still in or have landed back in D5 after 5 seasons.  Who will do better than the 50% who remain this season.

The current standings are a tale of 4 teams. West Ham and Espanyol who are living up to expectations at the top of the league , and Levant or Torino who are doing less well.

The top 4 in D5 should be able to cope 2 divisions higher and therefore should seek to make rapid progress.  Torino are the best equiped statistically and as the season progresses , like Levante can only improve.

But they have given West Ham a huge lead and other than lacking a little depth they are a strong side. Espanyol have more depth but a weaker back line, perhaps where the 4 point gap the Hammers have has come from.

Hertha Berlin, Cologne and River Plate are doing well as expected, any or all could challenge for the final automatic place.  Augsburg and Kazan are over performing at the moment.  Kazan have no depth and Augsburg a weak defense so it will interesting to see how they cope in the long term. The cut off for D4 is around 87 , so anyone down to Independiente could hope for a playoff spot.

With no relegation spot ,only the sack race is a problem for thw worse 2 teams.

In theory that should be Kazan and Augsburg but they already have a good number of points.  West Brom and Anderlecht will therefore have to pull something out of the fire to avoid that spot, with argueably better teams below them.

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Fin
Torino	89.0	88.3	88.5	88.5	87.0	88.3	1.0
RCD Espanyol	88.0	87.5	89.0	89.0	87.0	88.1	2.0
West Ham United	88.0	88.3	89.0	88.5	86.0	88.0	3.0
Levante UD	88.0	88.3	88.5	89.5	85.0	87.9	4.0
H. Berlin	88.0	88.3	87.7	88.5	86.0	87.7	5.0
Cologne	89.0	87.3	88.0	88.5	85.0	87.6	6.0
River Plate	88.0	88.3	88.3	88.0	85.0	87.5	7.0
FK Partizan	88.0	88.0	87.5	87.0	86.0	87.3	8.0
Málaga CF	87.0	87.5	87.3	87.5	87.0	87.3	9.0
Montpellier HSC	87.0	87.7	87.0	88.5	86.0	87.2	10.0
Lille OSC	88.0	87.3	87.7	88.0	85.0	87.2	11.0
Bremen	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.1	12.0
Independiente	87.0	87.7	87.7	88.0	85.0	87.1	13.0
FC Twente	87.0	86.5	87.7	88.5	85.0	86.9	14.0
Club Brugge KV	87.0	86.5	87.7	87.0	85.0	86.6	15.0
Flamengo	86.0	87.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.6	16.0
RSC Anderlecht	87.0	87.0	86.5	86.5	86.0	86.6	17.0
West Bromwich Albion	87.0	86.5	87.0	87.0	85.0	86.5	18.0
Augsburg	88.0	85.5	87.3	86.5	85.0	86.5	19.0
Rubin Kazan	88.0	86.0	87.0	87.5	83.0	86.3	20.0

The Dynamo of the league or a flat battery waiting to be charged. 

 

Monaco are statistically the best team in the league by some way, but they are plagued by constant underperformance.  A somewhat better start this year could see them in more lofty climbs.  Olympiacos with their excellent keeper should finish 2nd but will their love of one particular position be their un doing.  Celta Vigo may well have a starting 11 to match Monaco but lack depth , off to a good start but can they hold it together. 

You will need around 87.2 to survive in D3 , the sorting hat hasn't quite worked it's magic down this far into the leagues, meaning all the teams down to Stuttgart could challenge for an automatic or even play off spot. It really is tight in D4 with very little to split the chasing pack.  Stoke seem to be going for a promotion or relagation strategy , or maybe the team isn't fully prepared yet with more players coming in .  

Of the relegation candidates, they all have their easy to spot flaws.

Kiev have a weak attack,  Zagreb a weak midfield and depth,  Bordeaux a poor keeper / defence combo.  Dynamo Moscow lack depth,  Santos much the worse keeper.  All are in  the lower reaches of the league at the moment, can they escape the chop. Dnipro could go for a good cup run with their squad 

	GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Fin
AS Monaco	88.0	89.0	90.0	90.0	87.0	88.8	1.0
Olympiacos	90.0	88.0	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.6	2.0
Celtic	88.0	89.0	88.5	89.0	87.0	88.3	3.0
Celta Vigo	88.0	88.7	89.7	90.0	85.0	88.3	4.0
Standard Liège	88.0	88.0	88.5	89.5	87.0	88.2	5.0
FC Basel	88.0	87.0	89.5	89.0	86.0	87.9	6.0
AZ Alkmaar	89.0	87.3	87.5	89.0	86.0	87.8	7.0
Udinese Calcio	87.0	88.0	88.3	88.0	87.0	87.7	8.0
Hoffenheim	88.0	88.3	87.3	88.0	86.0	87.5	9.0
Stoke City	89.0	87.5	88.5	89.0	83.0	87.4	10.0
Feyenoord	88.0	87.5	87.7	87.5	86.0	87.3	11.0
Chievo Verona	87.0	88.3	88.3	87.0	86.0	87.3	12.0
Atalanta BC	88.0	86.7	87.7	88.0	86.0	87.3	13.0
Stuttgart	88.0	87.3	87.5	87.5	86.0	87.3	14.0
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk	87.0	87.0	87.7	87.0	87.0	87.1	15.0
Dynamo Kyiv	87.0	87.0	88.5	86.5	86.0	87.0	16.0
Dinamo Zagreb	88.0	87.0	87.3	87.5	85.0	87.0	17.0
Girondins Bordeaux	87.0	87.0	87.3	87.0	86.0	86.9	18.0
Dynamo Moskva	87.0	87.5	87.3	87.0	84.0	86.6	19.0
Santos FC	86.0	87.0	87.3	87.5	84.0	86.4	20.0

A couple of mighty team languish in the depths of division 3, will they emerge to haunt of of the top 100 or vanish without a trace.

Why are PSV not top of the league, well regular underperformance is the answer.

A team with a 91 keeper and above 89 should easily finish in the top 4. Shaktar are performing as they should and another 90 rated keeper should see them into D2 this year. Leicester another underperforming outfit ,also struggling again. They have the best attack in D3, while they are sure to be safe from relegation they should flourish against 88 rated keepers.

You probably need above 88 to survive D2 so you can't go down that far any more to look at playoff contenders, perhaps as far as Saint - Etienne with their strong defence or even Sassuolo if they overcome the lack of depth.

At the wrong end Cruziero who should be last are top. Again it could be lack of depth that under rates them but will also cost long term.  Marseille could well be in worse shape , with the worse keeper and apart from the top18 the worse over all rating.  The 2 Turkish teams could also end up going the wrong way but any team up as far as Lokomotive with their weak depth are at risk

	GK	Def	Mid	Att	Top18	Ave	Finish
PSV	91	89	89.5	89	87	89.1	1
Shakhtar Donetsk	90	89	88.5	89.5	87	88.8	2
Leicester City	88	88.8	89.7	90.5	86	88.6	3
Athletic Club	89	88.3	89	88	87	88.26	4
Aston Villa	88	88.7	88.5	89.5	86	88.14	5
Newcastle United	88	88	89.7	89	86	88.14	6
Boca Juniors	90	88.3	88.3	88	86	88.12	7
CSKA Moskva	89	88.3	88	89	86	88.06	8
AS Saint-Etienne	89	88.3	87.5	88	87	87.96	9
Hellas Verona	88	87.5	88.5	88	86	87.6	10
Sampdoria	88	87.5	87.8	88.5	86	87.56	11
Sassuolo	88	88	88	88.5	85	87.5	12
Hamburg	87	87.5	89	88	86	87.5	13
Lokomotiv Moskva	88	88	88.3	89	84	87.46	14
Crystal Palace	87	87	88.3	88	86	87.26	15
Galatasaray SK	87	87.3	88.5	88	85	87.16	16
São Paulo FC	87	87.5	87.5	87.5	86	87.1	17
Beşiktaş JK	87	86	88.3	89	85	87.06	18
Olympique Marseille	86	87.3	87.8	88	86	87.02	19
Cruzeiro	87	87.3	86.8	87	85	86.62	20

Will the big 3 return to the big time? will it be a German top 3 ?

Atletico are the obvious favourites, with Southampton , Schalke and Leverkusen close behind.

O.K second division, so second point to note.  Some managers have commented that they have built their squad up through skilled trading or scouting and then get penalised in the value added againsts managers who do little or nothing. 

Well that is a good point, but to do that we would need to look at squad value increase or otherwise over the course of the season.

Anyway back to the league in hand.

Atletico and Southampton can push out a full 90 rated squad and would sit happily in division 1.  Other than Schalke and Leverkeusen , all the other teams in D2 would be relegation fodder, which is an interesting developement. Probably a result of the sorting hat in action. 

It will be interesting to see how Wolfsburg fair. A weaker keeper and no depth, but the potential to cope with the big boys in the short term

Zenit and Inter have the top keepers and should be able to challenge for a playoff spot.

Of the mid table pack Benfica and Fenerbache have a powerful attack.

Spartak and current leaders Internacional should be relegation bound.  Swansea have a potent enough forward line to avoid the drop.  There is good strength in depth in this league and any of the 87 rated teams in the top 18 category, should be able to play to their strengths all season.

As for my own team. I expect a tough start to the season but then I hope to challenge for the playoff by the end of the season.

	GK	Def	Mid	Att	Top18	Ave	Finish
Atlético Madrid	92	90.3	90.3	90.5	87	90.02	1
Southampton	90	90.5	90.5	90.5	87	89.7	2
Schalke	89	90	90.7	91	86	89.34	3
Leverkusen	91	89.7	90.5	89	86	89.24	4
Wolfsburg	88	89	91	92	85	89	5
Zenit	91	89	88.5	89.5	87	89	6
Internazionale	91	89.7	90.5	88.5	85	88.94	7
SS Lazio	89	89.3	90.3	89	87	88.92	8
Sevilla	88	89.5	90.3	89.5	87	88.86	9
SL Benfica	88	88.8	90.3	90.5	86	88.72	10
ACF Fiorentina	89	88	89.7	89.5	87	88.64	11
SPORTING CP	88	88	88.7	89.5	87	88.55	12
Fenerbahçe SK	89	87	89	90	87	88.4	13
Genoa CFC	89	88	90.3	89.5	85	88.36	14
Villarreal CF	88	89.7	88.5	88.5	87	88.34	15
Sunderland	88	88.3	88.3	89	87	88.12	16
Olympique Lyonnais	88	88.7	88.3	89.5	86	88.1	17
SC Internacional	88	88.3	87.7	87.5	86	87.88	18
Swansea City	88	87.3	88	89	86	87.66	19
Spartak Moskva	88	87.7	88.5	88.5	85	87.54	20

Who is top of the pile and who can over perform.

Have Barcelona sacrificed depth for youth?

First of all, nothing here is opinion. I don't believe or predict that AC Milan will finish last. This is just raw stats with no opinion attached.  

Barcelona still look like the favourites. Real, Bayern and Juventus should snap at their heels.  Man Utd sit ahead of a more evenly packed mid table crowd from Chelsea down to Dortmund.  Valencia and Dortmund probably have the depth to push on late in the season. The opposite is true of  the first relegation favourites Napoli, Borussia and Porto, plenty of strength , little depth. wisely Ajax and Everton have a stronger squad, to survive the inevitable relegation battle. AC Milan and Mr Beddows hold up the statistical table. Can he beat his value added score from last season?

		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average
1	Barcelona	96.0	94.0	94.3	97.5	85.0	93.4
2	Real Madrid	92.0	93.8	93.5	97.0	89.0	93.1
3	Bayern	92.0	92.5	93.5	96.5	88.0	92.5
4	Juventus	94.0	92.3	92.3	94.5	89.0	92.4
5	Manchester United	94.0	91.3	92.3	93.0	87.0	91.5
6	Chelsea	93.0	91.3	92.3	93.0	85.0	90.9
7	Arsenal	90.0	91.8	91.5	93.0	88.0	90.9
8	Paris Saint-Germain	89.0	91.3	92.5	94.5	85.0	90.5
9	Tottenham Hotspur	91.0	90.7	92.5	90.0	87.0	90.2
10	Manchester City	89.0	89.5	91.7	94.0	87.0	90.2
11	Liverpool	90.0	91.0	91.0	93.0	86.0	90.2
12	AS Roma	92.0	90.0	91.0	91.0	87.0	90.2
13	Valencia CF	90.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	88.0	90.1
14	Dortmund	89.0	90.5	91.0	91.0	88.0	89.9
15	SSC Napoli	90.0	90.5	91.0	91.5	85.0	89.6
16	FC Porto	90.0	90.3	89.5	91.5	86.0	89.5
17	Monchengladbach	90.0	89.0	90.3	91.0	86.0	89.3
18	Everton	89.0	89.5	91.0	89.5	87.0	89.2
19	Ajax	90.0	90.0	89.5	89.0	87.0	89.1
20	AC Milan	89.0	89.7	90.5	89.0	86.0	88.8

Who is the top of the stats and facts this year... will it be Mr Beddows or has the Dinosaur beaten him to it..

Firstly. The stats and facts ,despite certain people who are a little hard of understanding commenting otherwise, merely predict what should happen according to the raw data. Obviously that takes no account of manager skill, I could in future seasons factor that in , based on previous seasons value added but that is bit too much like hard work.

So on raw or should I say roar ! value added score.

AC Milan get + 14

SC Internacional +9

Boca +12

Sunderland +10

Sporting + 9

Sassuolo +10

Sampdoria +12

Santos + 8

So clearly on raw score AC Milan did a fantastic job.

If we look at skewed value added which includes a measure of success , rather than merely achievement.

AC Milan +2.33

Sporting + 9

Hellas + 6

Sassuolo +5

Sampdoria +3

Dynamo +7 

Santos +3

So we have a clear winner , ahem, which is Sporting Lisbon

 At the other end, we really need to look hard at D4 and 5

West Ham at -17 VA, and Twente -15 VA , with Monaco -0.95 skew.  

Must do better, look what you could have won!

Dynamo Moscow win the league and get the highest rating, credit goes to Santos for a good season.  Twente and even 5th place Torino fail to impress again.

Controversial a 5th place team lowest in the ranking? Well not considering the side they have. An 89 keeper and 90 rated forward , should have been a walk in the park and not a blunder through the play offs.

Pred		GK	DEF	MID	ATT	Top18	Average	Finish	VA	Skew
8	Dynamo Moskva	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	87.0	87.1	1.0	7.0	7
11	Santos FC	87.0	87.0	88.0	87.0	85.0	86.8	3.0	8.0	2.7
13	Rubin Kazan	88.0	86.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.8	6.0	7.0	1.2
19	Club Brugge KV	87.0	86.5	88.0	87.0	83.0	86.3	12.0	7.0	0.6
12	Málaga CF	87.0	87.0	87.0	87.0	86.0	86.8	9.0	3.0	0.3
20	FK Partizan	87.0	86.5	87.0	87.5	83.0	86.2	16.0	4.0	0.3
5	Celtic	88.0	86.0	87.5	88.5	86.0	87.2	4.0	1.0	0.3
15	Flamengo	87.0	87.0	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.7	13.0	2.0	0.2
2	Celta Vigo	88.0	89.0	89.5	87.5	86.0	88.0	2.0	0.0	0
16	Augsburg	88.0	86.5	86.5	87.0	85.0	86.6	17.0	-1.0	-0.1
14	Bremen	86.0	87.0	88.5	87.0	85.0	86.7	15.0	-1.0	-0.1
10	Independiente	87.0	87.0	87.5	88.0	85.0	86.9	11.0	-1.0	-0.1
18	West Bromwich Albion	87.0	86.5	86.0	87.5	85.0	86.4	20.0	-2.0	-0.1
17	RSC Anderlecht	86.0	86.5	87.5	87.0	85.0	86.4	19.0	-2.0	-0.1
7	Levante UD	88.0	87.5	87.5	88.0	85.0	87.2	8.0	-1.0	-0.1
6	H. Berlin	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.0	85.0	87.2	7.0	-1.0	-0.1
9	Cologne	88.0	87.0	88.0	88.5	84.0	87.1	14.0	-5.0	-0.4
4	RCD Espanyol	88.0	87.0	88.0	87.5	86.0	87.3	10.0	-6.0	-0.6
1	Torino	89.0	88.0	88.5	90.0	87.0	88.5	5.0	-4.0	-0.8
3	FC Twente	87.0	87.5	88.5	88.5	86.0	87.5	18.0	-15.0	-0.8