How Many Points Did You Need To Avoid Relegation?

At the start of Season 8, I published seasonal history stats showing how many points teams could expect to need to avoid the sack, avoid relegation, get into the playoffs (or the top ten in D1), win automatic promotion (top four in D1) or the title.

Now the season is over, here’s my round-up of how that worked out…

Avoiding relegation

D1 - 40 points

Napoli survived with just 36 points and vastly superior goal difference over Bayer Leverkusen. It’s the Italian club’s worst ever finish in their six consecutive seasons in D1, and worryingly for boss Rob Ryan, it seems to be a downward trend…

Bayer Leverkusen, Sevilla and Everton all achieved their second best ever finishes in Top 100 history, but that will be of little consolation as they were relegated, nevertheless.

D2 - 43 points

43 points was just enough (thanks to a final game point at relegated Celtic, and a superior goal difference) for Inter Milan, but not enough for Lazio. 

Inter’s worst ever finish, while former D1 giants Lazio are becoming a bit of a D2/D3 yo-yo club.

Remarkably, this season marked the first time in Top 100 history that Celtic failed to improve on their position from the previous season.

Also, Fiorentina’s worst ever finish, and the third season out of eight they have finished rock bottom of the division!

D3 - 44 points

44 points wasn’t enough to save Chievo Verona, and even 45 wasn’t enough for Dynamo Kyiv, who missed out by three goals to Leicester City. 

In six seasons in D3, this was the Foxes’ second worst ever finish. 

For Kyiv, this is the first time since Season 2 that they have failed to improve on their position from the previous season. 

After reaching the playoffs in the previous two seasons, Chievo will be disappointed to be heading back down to D4. 

A second consecutive relegation sees Saint-Etienne return to D4 for the first time since Season 4.

D4 - 44 points

The crAZy Alkmaar Experiment reaped 41 points, never enough to stay in D4, and their worst finish since Season 1.

Swansea and Cruzeiro suffer back-to-back relegations and their first ever seasons in D5 as a result.

Dinamo Zagreb are back in D5 for the first time since Season 3.

How Many Points Did You Need To Avoid The Sack?

At the start of Season 8, I published seasonal history stats showing how many points teams could expect to need to avoid the sack, avoid relegation, get into the playoffs (or the top ten in D1), win automatic promotion (top four in D1) or the title.

Now the season is over, here’s my round-up of how that worked out…

Avoiding the sack

D1 - 34 points

Manchester City accumulated 34 points with six games to go, which was just as well, as they only got one more in the run in. But it was a total that kept sky blues gaffer Alex McLean in his beloved job, despite it being City’s worst ever finish, just out of the bottom two.

Everton were relegated with 29 points, one point and position worse than their best ever finish in Season 5.

D2 - 37 points

Celtic finished 18th with 38 points, but with 19th placed Sporting managing only a miserable record low 28, that was more than enough for Sir Kevin Wallace to have another crack in D3 next season.

D3 - 38 points

Athletic Club’s Mike T jumped before he was pushed, but can consider himself slightly unlucky that his team finished 19th with 39 points. Still, teams have been relegated from D3 with more (and survived with less), and this season was always a bit too tight and hairy down there to be comfortable.

D4 - 42 points

Swansea’s 33 points is the lowest ever to finish outside of the bottom two in D4, beating Stuttgart’s 36 from the previous season. They finished outside the bottom two thanks only to two of the worst bottom two finishes in Top 100 D4 history by Dinamo Zagreb and Cruzeiro.

D5 - 40 points

38 points was enough for Augsburg to avoid sacking manager Ivan Anic.

Relief for mcmillan as inter avoid the drop

After avoiding the drop on goal difference inter milan boss Josh speaks to the press.

Congrats on surviving the drop, how do you feel? I don’t feel I should be congratulated inter milan should not be near the relegation zone so don’t congratulate me. I am relieved  to still be a div 2 manager.

Why do you think you had such a bad season? 
Many things have happened since I took over the club. I made mistakes at times this season but so did the players im not going to stick up for them . The likes of phillip and diaz and players with great potential and both players we were relying on this season just didn’t turn up. I played them in there correct positions and my biggest regret is keeping them and thinking they will suddenly pick up there form. I almost left it to late but thankfully when we changed it around with a few games to go we picked up a win and 2 draws which was enough and then of course we lost 2 of our best players to retirement at the end of the previous season which left us with big problems as we couldn’t trade them and we just had to cope with losing  two 90+ players in div 2.

Do you feel you are the right man to lead inter?
Yes of course I do people need to realize this club is not the inter of old and we just have to accept that. A long term project is needed which is something ive been trying to do but you have to juggle it around as you cant survive with younger players with lower ratings. So its a project im slowly building but saying that this season still wasnt good enough I would of been happy with a mid-table finish with the team we had.

when you say its not the inter of old what do you mean?
Well clearly there  has been some bad decisions made at the club long before me or alex took over. There was a time inter were a strong side and winning trophys. I’m not having a go at anyone but when I took over inter it was full of older players with ok ratings. Now I completely get what alex was doing he was trying to compete in  a division which is incredibly strong and that’s how he went about it. Ive had to try and build a project again here after many years of problems for this club and ive had some big problems trying to recruit players but slowly I think I’m getting somewhere.

How is the recruitment going for the new season and where do you expect to finish?
recruitment is going well We have brought in a bit more experience and quality so that we hopefully don’t end up near the relegation zone again. Dzeko is a massive buy for us not just for his goal threat but he is such a handful. Perrin brings experience and versatility as does medal. We will be sorry to see timo horn leave he was the only one I could say did us proud but we need more strength in depth so bringing in Mignolet and jay Rodriguez for him was a no brainer. Clichy is a well known experienced left back who has played at a good level in the past and bringing in an 88 in at lb is difficult so were happy to have him.  were hoping khazri hits the ground running with us a player who has some great attributes but can be inconsistent but i’ll try to get the best out of him.  as for youth as I say we need players who will be the future of the club.  Mount, Adli, Caleta-car are three young lads I think have great futures and we have just signed Ebere Eze another very talented lad with potential. we are still open to negotiations on other players to.

As for the season coming up I would like to think we could push for top 10 and then maybe the playoffs but its a tough division and I would just be happy with a big improvement from last season.



Season 8 Div5 stats and facts review

Bremen 2nd candidate for team of the year. +14VA +15PVA, Feyenord also +10 with promoted Montpellier +7.

Division 5 is always a mad bad world.

Bremen always had a good keeper for the division and a strong midfield, but a few crafty late season buys pushed him over the line.

West Brom -6/-0.71 and more so  West Ham -13/-0.75  were crushingly disappointing, which helped but Santos in 2nd , Montpellier pushed them hard with 4 pts separating the top 6.

Feyenord on +10 improved as the season went on , Twente were unlucky to fail in the playoffs.

Other than those mentioned, Independient on -7 and River Plate on -14 VA are notable in their below par performance. 


 GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Ave
ETOT Epr Fin VA PVA
Bremen  88.0 86.5 88.0 87.0 86.0 87.1
217.03 15 1 14 15.00
Montpellier HSC  88.0 86.3 87.8 88.5 85.0 87.1
217.49 10 3 7 2.67
FC Twente  87.0 87.0 87.8 87.5 85.0 86.9
217.32 11 4 7 2.00
Feyenoord  87.0 87.0 87.3 87.0 85.0 86.7
216.59 19 9 10 1.22
Udinese Calcio  87.0 87.3 87.5 88.0 85.0 87.0
217.64 9 5 4 1.00
Rubin Kazan  87.0 86.8 87.8 87.5 85.0 86.8
217.12 13 8 5 0.75
Santos FC  89.0 87.5 88.5 88.0 86.0 87.8
219.00 2 2 0 0.50
Stuttgart  87.0 86.5 87.3 88.0 84.0 86.6
216.72 17 14 3 0.29
Girondins Bordeaux  87.0 86.8 86.5 88.5 84.0 86.6
216.65 18 15 3 0.27
Besiktas JK  88.0 86.0 87.0 86.5 85.0 86.5
215.39 20 17 3 0.24
Dynamo Moskva  88.0 86.8 87.3 88.0 85.0 87.0
217.16 12 12 0 0.08
Club Brugge KV  87.0 87.3 88.3 88.0 86.0 87.3
218.36 5 6 -1 0.00
Augsburg  87.0 86.8 87.5 88.0 83.0 86.5
217.00 16 18 -2 -0.06
Flamengo  87.0 87.3 88.3 87.5 86.0 87.2
218.04 8 10 -2 -0.10
Lille OSC  85.0 87.8 87.3 87.5 83.0 86.1
217.04 14 19 -5 -0.21
Málaga CF  88.0 87.5 88.0 87.5 86.0 87.4
218.16 7 13 -6 -0.38
Independiente  85.0 88.3 87.5 88.5 85.0 86.9
218.53 4 11 -7 -0.55
River Plate  88.0 88.5 87.8 87.0 85.0 87.3
218.31 6 20 -14 -0.65
West Bromwich Albion  90.0 88.3 88.5 88.0 82.0 87.4
219.24 1 7 -6 -0.71
West Ham United  87.0 86.8 88.0 89.5 86.0 87.5
218.74 3 16 -13 -0.75

Division 4 Season 8 stats and facts review

Basel top of stats in D4, Stoke get the best VA,  Atalanta, Boca and Partizan disappoint their fans.

Most people thought Monaco were odds on favourites to win D4 including me, while they came 2nd , Basel stormed to victory.  Stoke got a great +8 VA, with 2nd spot Levante gettng a creditable + 5, with Torino matching them .

Such was the accuracy of the stats at the wrong end with the lowest 3 correctly positioned and AZ just one place out in 17th . Boca just escaped in 16th with -7 VA , the same Partizan in 13th.  This left playoff possible Atalanta in the lowest VA spot.


 GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Ave
ETOT Epr Fin VA PVA
FC Basel  88.0 87.5 88.5 89.5 87.0 88.1
219.98 5 1 4 5.00
Levante UD  87.0 88.0 88.8 88.5 86.0 87.7
219.69 8 3 5 2.00
Stoke City  88.0 87.5 87.8 88.0 84.0 87.1
218.04 15 7 8 1.29
Torino  89.0 87.3 88.0 87.5 86.0 87.6
218.08 14 9 5 0.67
Aston Villa  89.0 87.5 87.8 90.0 86.0 88.1
219.70 7 5 2 0.60
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk  88.0 87.8 87.8 88.5 86.0 87.6
218.81 10 8 2 0.38
Cologne  87.0 87.8 87.8 88.0 86.0 87.3
218.36 13 11 2 0.27
Olympique Marseille  87.0 87.3 87.8 88.0 86.0 87.2
217.96 17 15 2 0.20
Crystal Palace  87.0 87.5 88.0 88.0 86.0 87.3
218.36 12 12 0 0.08
Swansea City  87.0 87.0 87.3 88.0 85.0 86.9
217.24 18 18 0 0.06
Dinamo Zagreb  85.0 87.9 87.0 87.0 85.0 86.4
216.83 19 19 0 0.05
Cruzeiro  87.0 87.3 86.5 87.5 83.0 86.3
216.28 20 20 0 0.05
AS Monaco  88.8 88.8 90.3 93.5 88.0 89.9
225.19 1 2 -1 0.00
AZ Alkmaar  88.0 88.0 86.5 88.5 86.0 87.4
218.01 16 17 -1 0.00
Olympiacos  89.0 87.5 87.5 89.0 85.0 87.6
218.73 11 14 -3 -0.14
RCD Espanyol  91.0 88.5 89.0 89.5 87.0 89.0
221.54 2 4 -2 -0.25
CELTA VIGO  90.0 88.5 88.8 88.0 86.0 88.3
220.12 3 6 -3 -0.33
Boca Juniors  88.0 87.3 88.5 89.5 86.0 87.9
219.66 9 16 -7 -0.38
FK Partizan  87.0 88.0 88.5 89.0 87.0 87.9
219.93 6 13 -7 -0.46
Atalanta BC  89.0 88.0 87.8 90.0 85.0 88.0
219.98 4 10 -6 -0.50

D3 Season 8 stats and facts review

Liege and Hellas battled it out for the title and for the stats in D3, Saint Etienne,  Leicester and Southampton fail to perform.

Liege no one would argue were a cut above in D3 with a +34 GD almost a goal a game better than their opponents.

They get the PVA award but Hellas in 2nd push them close at +2.  Sao Paulo pushed themselves into the playoffs and a high stats finish, but this proved to be a game too far as it did for +8 VA Fenerbache. 

At the wrong end Southampton , clear promotion candidates got -12 VA and -0.79 PVA a miserable performance all round,  but this was eclipsed by ST Etiennes fall from grace finishing last and -8 VA. Leicester narrowly avoided the chop on -8 VA in 16th.

5 of the top 6 were accurately predicted as were 3/4 relegated teams.


 GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Ave
ETOT Epr Fin VA PVA
Standard Liège  89.0 87.8 90.0 90.5 87.0 88.9
222.15 3 1 2 3.00
Hellas Verona  89.0 87.3 90.3 89.0 87.0 88.5
220.97 5 2 3 2.00
São Paulo FC  88.0 87.8 87.3 89.0 85.0 87.4
218.61 13 6 7 1.33
Fenerbahçe SK  88.0 87.0 87.5 89.0 85.0 87.3
218.21 15 7 8 1.29
Hamburg  89.0 89.0 88.3 89.0 86.0 88.3
220.65 6 4 2 0.75
Spartak Moskva  87.0 87.5 87.8 87.5 85.0 87.0
217.72 18 11 7 0.73
Shakhtar Donetsk  89.0 87.8 87.8 88.0 86.0 87.7
218.60 14 9 5 0.67
Lokomotiv Moskva  89.0 87.3 88.0 87.5 86.0 87.6
218.08 16 12 4 0.42
Chievo Verona  87.0 86.0 88.5 87.5 85.0 86.8
217.12 20 18 2 0.17
Olympique Lyonnais  87.0 88.0 88.0 88.5 85.0 87.3
218.97 10 10 0 0.10
Dynamo Kyiv  87.0 88.0 88.0 86.5 86.0 87.1
217.79 17 17 0 0.06
Athletic Club  87.0 87.0 87.8 87.5 85.0 86.9
217.32 19 19 0 0.05
CSKA Moskva  89.0 88.3 89.3 89.5 87.0 88.6
221.30 4 5 -1 0.00
Sampdoria  88.0 88.8 88.5 89.0 85.0 87.9
220.41 7 8 -1 0.00
Sunderland  89.0 87.3 88.0 88.5 86.0 87.8
218.73 11 13 -2 -0.08
PSV  88.0 87.8 88.8 89.0 86.0 87.9
219.93 9 15 -6 -0.33
RSC Anderlecht  89.0 89.3 90.5 91.5 86.0 89.3
224.28 1 3 -2 -0.33
AS Saint-Etienne  87.0 87.0 87.3 90.0 86.0 87.5
218.66 12 20 -8 -0.35
Leicester City  88.0 88.3 88.3 89.0 86.0 87.9
219.93 8 16 -8 -0.44
Southampton  89.0 89.3 89.8 90.0 87.0 89.0
222.82 2 14 -12 -0.79

Division 2 season 8 stats and facts review


Ajax deserved champions of D2,  Zenit and Galatasaray get an honourable mention . Milan and Valencia the biggest dissapointments.

Promoted as champions , the well deserved Ajax team overcame close rivals Atletico and Genoa , who despite a medicore VA ,did what it took to go up. Zenit and Galatasaray should have been in the relegation zone but avoided the drop this season. 

Valencia and Milan have the lowest PVA , Milan even failing in the playoffs.  Berlin were much lower than expected.

5 of the teams in the top 6 were those predicted to be and 2 teams expected to be relegated escaped but 2 only just.

 


GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Ave
ETOT Epr Fin VA PVA
Ajax  90.0 89.8 90.5 90.5 87.0 89.6
224.27 4 1 3 4.00
Atlético Madrid  89.0 90.0 90.5 90.5 88.0 89.6
224.47 3 2 1 1.00
Zenit Saint Petersburg  91.0 88.5 88.3 88.0 87.0 88.6
219.96 16 9 7 0.89
Sassuolo  88.0 89.3 88.5 90.0 87.0 88.6
221.70 11 7 4 0.71
Hoffenheim  88.0 88.5 90.0 88.0 86.0 88.1
220.88 12 8 4 0.63
Galatasaray SK  88.0 87.3 88.3 88.0 86.0 87.5
218.48 20 13 7 0.62
SL Benfica  87.0 89.8 90.0 90.5 87.0 88.9
223.51 7 5 2 0.60
Newcastle United  88.0 88.5 89.0 89.0 87.0 88.3
220.85 13 11 2 0.27
Internazionale  89.0 87.3 88.5 89.0 86.0 88.0
219.45 18 16 2 0.19
Sporting CP  87.0 87.0 89.0 88.5 86.0 87.5
219.09 19 19 0 0.05
Genoa CFC  89.0 89.0 92.0 93.0 87.0 90.0
226.37 2 3 -1 0.00
Wolfsburg  89.0 90.3 90.5 90.0 87.0 89.4
224.22 5 6 -1 0.00
ACF Fiorentina  88.0 87.3 89.3 88.5 85.0 87.6
219.49 17 20 -3 -0.10
Celtic  85.0 88.0 88.8 89.5 85.0 87.3
219.98 15 18 -3 -0.11
SS Lazio  89.0 87.8 88.8 89.0 86.0 88.1
220.05 14 17 -3 -0.12
Villarreal CF  88.0 89.5 90.0 88.5 86.0 88.4
222.01 9 12 -3 -0.17
H. Berlin  88.0 88.8 89.3 90.0 87.0 88.6
221.90 10 15 -5 -0.27
Monchengladbach  90.0 89.5 90.5 90.5 86.0 89.3
223.95 6 10 -4 -0.30
Valencia CF  89.0 89.8 89.3 90.5 87.0 89.1
223.15 8 14 -6 -0.36
AC Milan  89.0 91.5 91.8 92.5 87.0 90.4
227.85 1 4 -3 -0.50

Division 1 season 8 review

SC Internacional or Bayern the true champs of D1?

Arsenal and Barcelona well below expectations.

First of all the health warning.

This is all based on number crunching, it take no accounts of trading, tactics, how the team was when you had it etc.

VA = difference between where you finished and where you should have done.

PVA takes into account the importance of finishing higher up and modifies the total.

Bayern have the highest PVA at +2 with their first spot all but guaranting them this award . SC Internacional who many would have seen as relegation certainties got the best VA of +12 , with Porto doing well at + 4 in 8th.

The biggest negative scores went to Arsenal at -10 and -0.6 with their narrow squeek over the relegation line.

Leverkeusen should be the post dissapointed with a mid pace team relegated. Everton, Seville, Tottenham rele


GK DEF MID ATT Top18 Ave
ETOT Epr Fin VA PVA
Bayern  92.0 93.0 94.5 96.0 87.0 92.5
233.88 2 1 1 2.00
SC Internacional  92.0 89.3 89.3 90.0 85.0 89.1
222.54 19 7 12 1.86
Chelsea  93.0 93.3 93.0 95.5 87.0 92.4
232.68 3 2 1 1.00
Juventus  94.0 91.8 93.5 92.5 90.0 92.4
230.41 4 3 1 0.67
FC Porto  91.0 90.8 90.5 90.0 88.0 90.1
224.98 12 8 4 0.63
Real Madrid  93.0 91.5 92.0 92.5 87.0 91.2
228.53 7 5 2 0.60
Liverpool  90.0 90.0 90.0 91.3 86.0 89.5
224.43 14 10 4 0.50
Schalke  89.0 89.5 90.3 89.5 87.0 89.1
223.10 16 13 3 0.31
Dortmund  92.0 91.3 90.3 89.5 86.0 89.8
224.74 13 12 1 0.17
Tottenham Hotspur  88.0 91.5 93.0 93.0 86.0 90.3
228.93 6 6 0 0.17
Sevilla  89.0 89.3 89.3 89.0 85.0 88.3
221.53 20 19 1 0.11
Manchester City  90.0 90.8 89.0 89.0 87.0 89.2
222.89 18 18 0 0.06
Manchester United  89.0 91.3 92.5 92.0 87.0 90.4
227.92 8 9 -1 0.00
SSC Napoli  90.0 90.3 90.5 90.0 87.0 89.6
224.34 15 16 -1 0.00
Paris Saint-Germain  95.0 91.0 90.5 91.0 87.0 90.9
226.19 9 11 -2 -0.09
Everton  89.0 89.3 89.5 90.5 87.0 89.1
222.95 17 20 -3 -0.10
AS Roma  92.0 89.5 92.3 90.5 86.0 90.1
225.59 10 14 -4 -0.21
Leverkusen  91.0 89.5 90.5 92.5 83.0 89.3
225.01 11 17 -6 -0.29
Barcelona  95.0 93.3 94.5 97.5 86.0 93.3
235.30 1 4 -3 -0.50
Arsenal  91.0 91.3 91.3 96.0 88.0 91.5
229.88 5 15 -10 -0.60

gated as predicted.


My Division 4 Predictions - A Review

DIVISION 4 PREDICTIONS - A REVIEW



Hey guys, You may remember at start of the season I did a post with my season predictions for Division 4, http://smtop100.blogspot.com/2018/06/division-4-season-8-preview.html?m=1

Well its time to see how I did against my predictions...
Honestly I think I did OK, of the 20 teams I correctly predicted 3 correct positions and another 7 teams within 3 places of my predicted finish. Not a bad shout if I say so myself.

FINAL LEAGUE TABLE

My Predictions (teams actual difference to finishing positions in brackets +/-)
  1. Monaco (-1)
  2. Espanyol (-2)
  3. Marseille (-12)
  4. Celta Vigo (-2)
  5. Aston Villa 
  6. Fc Basel (+5)
  7. Levante (+4)
  8. Olympiakos (-6)
  9. FK Partizan (-4)
  10. Crystal Palace (-3)
  11. Boca Juniors (-6)
  12. Torino (+3)
  13. Atalanta (+3)
  14. Swansea (-4)
  15. Cologne (+4)
  16. Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (+8)
  17. Stoke (+10)
  18. AZ Alkmaar (-1)
  19. Dinamo Zagreb
  20. Cruzeiro 
Maybe get another done for Division 5 once the influx of transfers have gone through.

Cheers for reading

Norman

SOLD DOWN THE RIVER

SOLD DOWN THE RIVER



The Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti was packed to the rafters today as River Plate welcomed new manager Norman Little who was prised away from Atalanta for a nominal fee of a bag of quavers and a bottle brown ale, a small price to pay for the mind of a tactical genius(in my mind anyway).
The first 24 hours of my reign has been hectic to say the least, So many deals been offered, negotiated, rejected and some finally accepted. 

River have just come off a terrible season, still a game to play granted but I wanted to be ready to hit the ground running next season, hence me leaving Atalanta once our play off dream was over. The deals completed today in my opinion make us a better round squad that can challenge for the play offs next season, some players arriving who will walk into the first team and some who will add depth, also some youngsters who will grow with the club. 
  • Adam Lallana and James Ward-Prowse arrive in a deal for Pellegrini
  • Jean-Phillippe Gbamin and Rasmus Kristensen arrive for Caldara
  • Andreas Pereira and Luca Waldschmidt arrive for Lookman
  • Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Pedro Rosario and Timur Zhamaletdinov for Nkunku
  • Tom Cairney for Boye
  • Christopher Schindler for Sadiq and Toral
  • Celina leaves for £2.4m
  • Alex Roldan released
As you can see we haven't stopped all day in the medical department. There is more in the pipeline but I have to calm down a touch as there is a strict squad cap of 50 to maintain ha. Some people may query these deals but you know what? I'm happy with them and thats all that matters, The Nkunku one for example, I get 3 very talented young players who all will rise next set of reviews, i could of taken for example i was offered a 90 rated "golden oldie" and a youth but these 3 youngsters i was excited over a lot more. I feel the deals give us depth and some potential at the same time. 

Cheers for reading

Norman