Division 5 Season 9 stats and facts.

Independiente favourites , can Stuttgart and Az hang on?

A few weeks down the line from normal and some but not all of the favoured teams sit near to the predicted position. River Plate, Rubin , Independiente, doing as  they should others less so.

Independiente are a cut above the opposition and in the end will gain promotion,  predicted 2nd WBA are a work in progress but the core of the team is there and they should be doing better. Rubin and River Plate are solid outfits for D2 but you have to think the better keeper at the Argentine side will be the deciding factor.

To survive D4 you need around 217. 7 so down to Dynamo Moscow any team could make a promotion bid.

At the other end there is nothing to fear except the sack for the lowest 2.  The should be Bordeaux who are also stripping out their side and AZ or Cruziero  and indeed two of those 3 sit plum at the seat of the table.

D5 is always a questionable league, so many clubs could be so much better with unclaimed free agents just sitting there, if nothing else for instant profit when sold, just a thought..

Division 4 Season 9 stats and facts. Will Boca leave the rest of the division open mouthed , can Montpellier avoid the inevitable relegation threat.

In reality 3 teams should be fighting it out for the top 3 places. Boca have a strong attack and midfield, with strength in depth. Villa try the good attack, good keeper formula , tried and proven, with Celta offering a much more defensive outlook.  The next batch Partizan,  Stoke, Santos and Dynamo Kiev should be the playoff teams. All closely matched.

Of those Stoke and Santos look better placed with a decent enough keeper, though Partizan have a solid top 15 and it may be the second half of the season before that strength in depth comes into play.

Since you only need around 218 to survive division 3, realistically any team down to Marseille could do well enough to gain promotion and indeed some of the lower  rated teams have got off to great starts.

Montpellier are noticeably worse than any other team in the division, a decent keeper could allow them to play defensively as surely they won't be an attacking threat.  Long term Bilbao look also to be in trouble, as should Chievo be although they are bucking the trend at the moment.

Division 3 season 9 stats and facts.

Monaco , Hamburg and Espanyol hard to see who could challenge them, except that PSV, Lazio and Spartak already are..

There are 3 clear leaders statistically in this Division that is the melting pot of all 5 division leagues.  Monaco should walk it , but that was said many times in the past , only for the players to let the manager down ,Espanyol are dependent on their great keeper and defensive line,  with Hamburg offering a more attacking approach.

Basel and Sampdoria with a great attack but weak defense, are interesting prosprects as both seem to be struggling early on.  To survive in division 2, you will need 221 points, so only the top 6 would get promoted and not immediately bounce back. 

At the other end , under 218  points means a huge struggle to survive , this should mean  Spartak and Lyonais , will be doomed , maybe Lokomotive have more of a chance with a better keeper. Even so Spartak have a great start and have some good points in the bag,. Any team with a top 18 of 87 or more will also fancy a good cup run.

Division 2 season 9 stats and facts.

Who is going to finish second in D2 ?, well that is what the stats are asking.

Ronaldo at Milan pushes them well above any other side,  they can be confident in screening the weaker defence and in any case would hope to simply outscore the opposition. Early evidence shows that could well be the case.

Standard Liege and Leverkeusen are closely matched, Liege the more attacking option and Leverkeusen in defence. Monchengladbach look to be a well balanced team and they have got off to a great start.

You probably need a rating of around 224.2 to survive D1, so even they would struggle next season. 

As for the relegation prospects.  Zenit are hoping their keeper keeps them up,  Galatasaray I can't really see what is going to save them . Villareal and Hoff have a good attacking line up put Villareal look fragile at the back.

Division 1 Season 9 stats and facts. Usual suspects lead the stats, things look tough for some of the promoted sides.

First of all , this is a purely statistical look at the ratings within the league. I have to use human input to work out which players are likely to be picked and where which is difficult at times. It is sorted using the relative importance of each position which was calculated using data from the first 4 seasons.

Barcelona are top in most stats , best keeper, midfield and attack, should be a walk in the park, only first is good enough, although they do lack depth. Bayern could challenge them if Barca suffer injuries at crucial times,  as Chelsea or Juve,

Other interesting prospects are Real Madrid, who are strong in all positions except attack ,  Arsenal similar except for defence and Tottenham except in goal. Will these sides look for a deal to be done ?

Genoa and Porto have got off to a great start , pick up the early points and the pressure is off in some respect.

Schalke especially look to have their work cut out, although statistically only 1 place better SC had no problems surviving the chop last season. For me Benfica have a huge hill to climb, most clubs will see the chance to fill their boots against a week keeper and defence.

Bremen 2nd candidate for team of the year. +14VA +15PVA, Feyenord also +10 with promoted Montpellier +7.

Division 5 is always a mad bad world.

Bremen always had a good keeper for the division and a strong midfield, but a few crafty late season buys pushed him over the line.

West Brom -6/-0.71 and more so  West Ham -13/-0.75  were crushingly disappointing, which helped but Santos in 2nd , Montpellier pushed them hard with 4 pts separating the top 6.

Feyenord on +10 improved as the season went on , Twente were unlucky to fail in the playoffs.

Other than those mentioned, Independient on -7 and River Plate on -14 VA are notable in their below par performance. 

Basel top of stats in D4, Stoke get the best VA,  Atalanta, Boca and Partizan disappoint their fans.

Most people thought Monaco were odds on favourites to win D4 including me, while they came 2nd , Basel stormed to victory.  Stoke got a great +8 VA, with 2nd spot Levante gettng a creditable + 5, with Torino matching them .

Such was the accuracy of the stats at the wrong end with the lowest 3 correctly positioned and AZ just one place out in 17th . Boca just escaped in 16th with -7 VA , the same Partizan in 13th.  This left playoff possible Atalanta in the lowest VA spot.

Liege and Hellas battled it out for the title and for the stats in D3, Saint Etienne,  Leicester and Southampton fail to perform.

Liege no one would argue were a cut above in D3 with a +34 GD almost a goal a game better than their opponents.

They get the PVA award but Hellas in 2nd push them close at +2.  Sao Paulo pushed themselves into the playoffs and a high stats finish, but this proved to be a game too far as it did for +8 VA Fenerbache. 

At the wrong end Southampton , clear promotion candidates got -12 VA and -0.79 PVA a miserable performance all round,  but this was eclipsed by ST Etiennes fall from grace finishing last and -8 VA. Leicester narrowly avoided the chop on -8 VA in 16th.

5 of the top 6 were accurately predicted as were 3/4 relegated teams.

Ajax deserved champions of D2,  Zenit and Galatasaray get an honourable mention . Milan and Valencia the biggest dissapointments.

Promoted as champions , the well deserved Ajax team overcame close rivals Atletico and Genoa , who despite a medicore VA ,did what it took to go up. Zenit and Galatasaray should have been in the relegation zone but avoided the drop this season. 

Valencia and Milan have the lowest PVA , Milan even failing in the playoffs.  Berlin were much lower than expected.

5 of the teams in the top 6 were those predicted to be and 2 teams expected to be relegated escaped but 2 only just.

SC Internacional or Bayern the true champs of D1?

Arsenal and Barcelona well below expectations.

First of all the health warning.

This is all based on number crunching, it take no accounts of trading, tactics, how the team was when you had it etc.

VA = difference between where you finished and where you should have done.

PVA takes into account the importance of finishing higher up and modifies the total.

Bayern have the highest PVA at +2 with their first spot all but guaranting them this award . SC Internacional who many would have seen as relegation certainties got the best VA of +12 , with Porto doing well at + 4 in 8th.

The biggest negative scores went to Arsenal at -10 and -0.6 with their narrow squeek over the relegation line.

Leverkeusen should be the post dissapointed with a mid pace team relegated. Everton, Seville, Tottenham rele

gated as predicted.