Shock as new prediction formula predicts Barcelona will win the league .

Will Chelsea , Bayern or Juve have enough to push them out the way?

First of all the usual warning.

None of the statistics are an opinion based, neither do they in anyway reflect the hard work or inate managerial skill you all obviously all have.

I also have, at some points , had to make difficult choices around the kind of formation you will put out.

The new "experimental " formula slightly downgrades the effect of a singular good keeper and the importance of depth. Why ? well on testing over the last season it seems to get it right more often.

Barcelona and Chelsea have much the best starting sides, but lack some depth. So they should do well early in the season until fatigue and injury starts to bite. They will need to build up a good lead as Juventus and Bayern have more depth and will worry less.

Real Madrid should also prove a hard side to break down. Man Utd on the otherhand could well suffer at the hands of the big sides.

Fiorentina and Liverpool look like the obvious favourites for relegation.  Despite a fair start Fiorentina seem to be relatively weak in all categories, meaning teams just need to play their normal game to beat them.  Liverpool less so and have a stronger defence but will that be enough as the draws start to mount up.  Then any two of 4 out of Porto, Wolfsburg, Schalke and Monchengladbach should fill up the remaining spots.

Don't read anything into Dortmunds poor start , look at the fixtures, they have played all the top sides statistically and will now be looking to climb up the table.

Division 5 Value added season 6.

The division where winning isn't enough.

Might seen cruel that Monaco are so lowely rated, but they were head and shoulders above the rest so it was a walk in the park.  Torino and Twente were also highly ranked ,so only one of the top 4 figure in the best scores.

Anderlecht , Bremen and Augsburg have the best VA with 3rd spot Anderlecht claiming the overall crown. 

Bremen and Augsburg 6th and 8th respectively also come 2nd and 3rd in the PVA.  Montpellier who grab a playoff spot also had a great VA on +9.

Worse performers were Cologne - 10 VA and -0.47 PVA. West Ham Espanyol , River Plate who should all have been in the playoffs or promoted fill the remaining lower positions. Espanyol in the play offs may feel annoyed but they should have been promoted automatically ..

Division 4 Season 6 value added.

Best value added +12, goes to Dynamo Kiev and Sao Paulo but they had too much to gain on Hertha Berlin the PVA leader and champions.

A notable + 10 for Dynamo Moscow and +7 for relegation favoured Dynamo Zagreb.  4th place Palace also had the fourth highest PVA of +2. 

At the wrong end, Basel have the worse PVA and VA of - 15.  Liege struggle to impress 6 places lower than they should have been .  Malaga were 7 places lower and got relegated.  Second lowest VA is for Celta Vigo who came 9 places lower than they should . 

Division 3 value added season 6

The Hoff have a massive +13 VA and +14 PVA..  Chievo close on +13 VA and 2.8 PVA with Celtic 2nd place in league and PVA.

St Etienne also had a great season +5 VA +2 PVA, special mention must go to Hamburg on +8 VA who fell at the last hurdle, and Cruziero with +8 VA.

PSV failed to impress on -14 VA and -0.87 PVA, arguably the weakest performance in all 5 division was Hellas who were predicted 2nd but came last on -18 VA with also relegate Marsielle not far behind.

Borussia M, well deserved leaders PVA, just ahead of Fiorentina who had a great +9 VA

 Some other great performances Sporting +6 VA, Sampdoria +5, Genoa +0.8 PVA.

At the wrong end,  Inter get the lowest PVA as, they should have finished 1st, narrowly above Benfica who had the lowest VA at -12.

Other poor performances from , Everton and Lazio

Value added Season 6 D1.

So below is a table with the raw value added and positional value added based on the actual finish.

Porto had the best PVA finishing 6 places above expected , with Barcelona the best PVA for winnning the title.

Liverpool come 2nd in PVA and VA with Man City scoring highly in both.

At the other end. PSG were worse in both categories having a miserable season all round. Real Madrid and Tottenham also poor all round.

Division 5 Season 6 stats and fact , still the only way is up.

Monaco should go up,  West Brom are rebuilding, what does the future hold for the foundation of the Top 100.

Monaco Twente and Espanyol sit head and shoulders above the opposition.  

The presence of Cech obviously biases the stats of Twente somewhat. The alternative system takes account of this, and sees them as 5th overall.

However it will be hard for most teams to get past such a high rated keeper.  Torino and Udinese have potent enough attacks, and that could be key in a division with weaker than average keepers if you exclude Cech.

The variation show maybe any team down to West Ham could get auto promotion , with Dnipro or Flamengo having a playoff chance.

With little to worry about other than the sack race lower down. West Brom are an unknown quantity, if they can rebuild then fine but can they give other teams a 9 ,12, or 15 point headstart, Augsburg potential the next weakest have had a decent start. 6 points in the bag is a premium in this league.

You need 87.2 average to survive D4 so that could be a target for the West Brom boss.  10 or more clubs have this , so any could aim for promotion.

Division 4  Season 6 stats and facts.  Twice a win a away from Division 2, will Leicester bounce back or do Celta Vigo have a cunning plan?

89 Keeper , 89 front line,  should be enough to push Leicester back from where they came, and early season form backs that up.  Basel  have much the same arrangement, but with a bit less depth , not such a good start for them , which they can't really afford as they may fade.  Lowest placed team Liege should finish 3rd on the main rankings,  although the alternate prediction system sees Olympiacos placing higher which is backed up early doors.

Looking up one division , you need around 87.3 to survive D3,  which bodes well for the majority of teams , showing the gap between D4 an D3 is perhaps not that large. The deviation shows any team down to Crystal Palace has a realistic play off shout.

Celta Vigo have a midfield heavy side, this pushes them higher up in the alternative ranking system, although it isn't helping much at the moment.

At the trap door end despite a good keeper, Zagreb are the weakest team in the league statistically. Dynamo Moscow and Bordeaux have some strength in depth, which could help them as the season goes on. Again the huge deviations in this division see any team up to Atalanta at threat of relegation, and with only half a point average difference between teams from Sau Paulo to Atalanta it is too tight to call. 

Malaga could be the type of team to put together a good cup run , should they wish, without changing their prospects in the league much.

The mad world of Division 3, stats and facts season 6.

Will PSV live up to expectations this season ?

PSV and argueably Sevilla can put out the strongest starting 11, with Olympic Lyon not far behind. Again looking up 1 division PSV would be challenging for a play off space , so this should be a relative doddle for them.

Lyon and Sevilla have the most attacking options, but Sevilla have a weakness between the sticks, which never helps long term.

Injury free Celtic could also challenge for the top spot. With a wild variation in performance vs stats in D3 you could look down as far as St Etienne or even Marseille for the eventual winners or even to Besitkas or Villa for a playoff spot.

The experimental ranking system indeed shows that Marseille or Villa could be dark horses for a play off run.

To survive in D2 you need around 88.10 which would put the cut off between Newcastle and Celtic , lower than that and you will be rejoining your long lost friends.

At the relegation end Chievo , Galatasary and Cruziero look set for the drop.  Galatasary and Cruziero have a weak keeper, lack depth,  Chievo are desperately weak up top and could find reinforcements in the open market.

While the regular stats put Spatak in the 4th drop spot, the adjusted stats show that Swansea may be more likely to drop, which is backed up by the first couple of games.

I fancy Besitkas for a good cup run, if that is what takes their fancy.

Season 6 Division 2 Stats and facts.

Inter Milan should dominate their Italian rivals in this division, with the strong German duo close behind.

Again , a quick note, none of this is my opinion or a reflection on any manager and their skill in making a team or running a team, just raw data crunched and spat out by excel.

It is always worth looking at the division above when considering , who could and who should be promoted. 

You will need around 89.4 to survive in D1. So realistically only the top 5 have what it takes, the rest if they get promoted , will in all probability get relegated again. 

That being said D2 is a slightly wilder place than D1 and there is always a bigger variation in results.

Inter are solid 90 throughout,  only Southampton can match that, but they have much less strength in depth.  Dortmund and Leverkeusen lay either side of their Portuguese rivals in Benfica, who can put out a stronger starting 11 if needed but lack in depth also.

Genoa have a potent attack and the alternative rating system shows them pushing for the playoff spot. 

Recall that with a SD of around 6 any team down to Lazio could push for a playoff spot and any team up to Schalke are at risk of relegation. 

The stats show that CSKA, Sassuolo and Athletic club making the return journey to D3 quicker than they would have liked.  Only Sampdoria from the promoted quartet seem to have a good enough squad to survive.  Fenerbache  who survived on goal difference last season may not be so lucky this year.

It seems to be getting harder and harder each year to survive in D2 with 46 points needed last season.