SC Internacional lead the tables, with all the predicted top 7 massively underperforming.

If Division 1 is predictable , then Division 2 is the opposite.

SC Internacional finished 12 spots ahead of predicted and won the league, also with the highest PVA , Everton were also promoted automatically and were the highest originally rated team to do well.  Hoffenheim were also 12 places higher than predicted in 4th, but must go through the playoffs.  Sevilla another playoff team must also be proud of their performance.

Conversly the decline of AC Milan continues , should have bounced back but finished 10th,  with the worse PVA . Ajax who should also have gone up finished 11th , Southampton who should have been in the playoff spots got relegated and have the worse VA.  

The main similarity with D1 is that 3 out of the 4 relegated teams were the statistically the worse at the start of the season.

Division 1 value added.

Ok this is how it works. At the start of the season I worked out statistically where each team should finish. 

From that you deduct the finishing position to give the value added , VA. 

So if a team should have finished 8th but came 2nd they get a VA of +6.

However to take into account relevance of finishing position we then add 1 to that and divide by the finishing postion to get the positional value added PVA.

So in the above situation they would get a PVA of 3.5  ( 6+1 ) / 2.

So in Division 1 Roma get the highest PVA finishing 7 spots ahead of predicted, they also have the highest VA of _2 .  Barcelona & Bayern are second in PVA which shows the settled nature of the division.   Other notable performances are Porto , Schalke and Liverpool , who could have been in relegation trouble but all kept afloat.

Lowest PVA was Man Utd who just underperformed Tottenham who had the lowest net VA.  The relegation of Atletico Madrid is the stand out for me as the other relegated teams were those predicted at the start of the season , which begs an interesting question.

Division 5 Season 7  stats and facts.  Two teams should dominate but will they ?

At least for now my own Celta Vigo team sit top of the pile.  With a midfield worthy of D2 at least it is no surprise they haven't lost in any serious competition so far.  Weaker at the back but strong enough for this league. West Ham have a stronger defense but a weaker keeper which could be their downfall.

Basel have a more balanced approach with no overall weakness,  unlike Twente who load up the keeper and forward line at the expense of all else.

Dnipro should be an interesting team if they can get enough possession to do damage to the opposition.   River Plate 6th in the stats currently lead the division , a good start by a team good enough to challenge all season long. Lille in 2nd probably don't have what it takes ,mainly a weak defence is likely to let them down.

Rubin Kazan are in last place stats wise and are waiting for the Portuguese ratings to buff their keeper up to the 86 /87 he deserves , so expect them to do better. Augsburg, Bremen , Flamengo will suffer all year with their current set ups.

Division 5 is 2 pts per club weaker on average or roughly 1pt per player position only really the top half statisically should hope for promotion.

Division 4 in many ways better than Division 3.

With one exceptional club in AS Monaco who could succeed in D1 the average D4 side is as good as the average D3 side.

At least statistically speaking D4 has a better club than anything in D3 and D3 has a worse club than anything in D4. The world has gone mad!.

This should give you the idea that D4 is a wide open mad world where almost anyone who gets promoted could then go on to have a second good season , so probably D4 sides could see a double bounce as a quite reasonable prospect.

Monaco's big problem is a weak keeper for such a good side. They will prosper in D4 but everyone knows , bye pass the midfield lump the ball up to a big striker.  This leaves them vunerable to the likes of Espanyol, Anderlecht, Hellas and Aston Villa all who could challenge them.

 Espanyol are the most balanced side and should concede the least goals.

Anderlecht should expect a good finishing position but do they have the depth for a full season push.  Their Belgium rivals don't have that issue but a weak offense is likely to be their achilles heel.

There are a number of relegation possibilities all the way up to Bordeaux should be concerned.  Zagreb are strong enough at the back , but where will the goals come from,  Stuttgart doing well for now but lack depth and have defensive frailties.  Dynamo Moscow more than any team can not afford a single injury without the team suffering.

So finally D3 and D4 seem to have merged ratings rise, at least for now,  however some old timers may see their last few season in D4 and the rating drop will come sooner or maybe much further in the season.

Division 3 stats and facts, are you the best or worst at being average?

PSV and Lazio head and shoulders above the rest.

Good news for those in division 3 , there are probably 10 or more clubs down to Shaktar who if they were promoted wouldn't get relegated straight away. A 90 rated attacking line is sure to do well against the generally weaker defences and keepers of D3, the only way to keep them at bay would be to deny possesion. This gives PSV a huge advantage as they should also get most of the ball. Only Lazio and Lyon can match them in that respect.

These should be the promoted teams with Hertha , who have another 90 attacking team on their tails.

Leicester , Newcastle, CSKA, Hamburg all very similar teams , who could push for a play off spot.

At the wrong end there is a fairly steep decline. We see 87 or even 86's in defence and if this is combined with a weak midfield their is only one way this will go. The two Turkish sides Cruziero and Swansea look hot to drop. With the exception of Galatasaray they fill the lower 4 positions along with Boca Juniors who are rated 5th from last in any case.

Is there an impossible gap between D2 and D1. The stats suggest yes. Can a top manager prove otherwise.

To not get instantly relegated the ETOT, the experimental ratings total in D1 is around 224.5

As you can see from the table below only AC Milan and Leverkeusen have a strong enough squad to survive more than one season. This sets up the dilema, get promotion get the sack next year..

In any case neither of these teams has had a great start.

Leverkeusen and AC Milan should be there or there abouts at the end of the season and in theory 1 / 2. Leverkeusen lack depth and have a shaky defence but in every other aspect have a great starting 11.

Milan are steady throughout and should be hard to break down by any team.

Ajax , Inter and Southampton are more or less AC Milan clones and except for Inter, none have had a great start , is there a shift to individual performance in the game dynamics or perhaps morale is more important.

Valencia should push for a higher place but goalkeeping has always been a weak point. Giroud has never really done the business for them and perhaps he should be sold on.

Everton have a well balanced side and depth which has set them off on the right course during the early part of the season.

At the wrong end the lower 4 teams dip below 220,  each has an obvious exploitable fault. Sporting the keeper, Sunderland the midfield,  Sampdoria the keeper and AS St Etienne the defence. Now there may be transfers coming in but Sunderland will stuggle for possession and that seems to count for so much .

Shock as new prediction formula predicts Barcelona will win the league .

Will Chelsea , Bayern or Juve have enough to push them out the way?

First of all the usual warning.

None of the statistics are an opinion based, neither do they in anyway reflect the hard work or inate managerial skill you all obviously all have.

I also have, at some points , had to make difficult choices around the kind of formation you will put out.

The new "experimental " formula slightly downgrades the effect of a singular good keeper and the importance of depth. Why ? well on testing over the last season it seems to get it right more often.

Barcelona and Chelsea have much the best starting sides, but lack some depth. So they should do well early in the season until fatigue and injury starts to bite. They will need to build up a good lead as Juventus and Bayern have more depth and will worry less.

Real Madrid should also prove a hard side to break down. Man Utd on the otherhand could well suffer at the hands of the big sides.

Fiorentina and Liverpool look like the obvious favourites for relegation.  Despite a fair start Fiorentina seem to be relatively weak in all categories, meaning teams just need to play their normal game to beat them.  Liverpool less so and have a stronger defence but will that be enough as the draws start to mount up.  Then any two of 4 out of Porto, Wolfsburg, Schalke and Monchengladbach should fill up the remaining spots.

Don't read anything into Dortmunds poor start , look at the fixtures, they have played all the top sides statistically and will now be looking to climb up the table.

Division 5 Value added season 6.

The division where winning isn't enough.

Might seen cruel that Monaco are so lowely rated, but they were head and shoulders above the rest so it was a walk in the park.  Torino and Twente were also highly ranked ,so only one of the top 4 figure in the best scores.

Anderlecht , Bremen and Augsburg have the best VA with 3rd spot Anderlecht claiming the overall crown. 

Bremen and Augsburg 6th and 8th respectively also come 2nd and 3rd in the PVA.  Montpellier who grab a playoff spot also had a great VA on +9.

Worse performers were Cologne - 10 VA and -0.47 PVA. West Ham Espanyol , River Plate who should all have been in the playoffs or promoted fill the remaining lower positions. Espanyol in the play offs may feel annoyed but they should have been promoted automatically ..

Division 4 Season 6 value added.

Best value added +12, goes to Dynamo Kiev and Sao Paulo but they had too much to gain on Hertha Berlin the PVA leader and champions.

A notable + 10 for Dynamo Moscow and +7 for relegation favoured Dynamo Zagreb.  4th place Palace also had the fourth highest PVA of +2. 

At the wrong end, Basel have the worse PVA and VA of - 15.  Liege struggle to impress 6 places lower than they should have been .  Malaga were 7 places lower and got relegated.  Second lowest VA is for Celta Vigo who came 9 places lower than they should . 

Division 3 value added season 6

The Hoff have a massive +13 VA and +14 PVA..  Chievo close on +13 VA and 2.8 PVA with Celtic 2nd place in league and PVA.

St Etienne also had a great season +5 VA +2 PVA, special mention must go to Hamburg on +8 VA who fell at the last hurdle, and Cruziero with +8 VA.

PSV failed to impress on -14 VA and -0.87 PVA, arguably the weakest performance in all 5 division was Hellas who were predicted 2nd but came last on -18 VA with also relegate Marsielle not far behind.