Division 1 Season 9 stats and facts. Usual suspects lead the stats, things look tough for some of the promoted sides.

First of all , this is a purely statistical look at the ratings within the league. I have to use human input to work out which players are likely to be picked and where which is difficult at times. It is sorted using the relative importance of each position which was calculated using data from the first 4 seasons.

Barcelona are top in most stats , best keeper, midfield and attack, should be a walk in the park, only first is good enough, although they do lack depth. Bayern could challenge them if Barca suffer injuries at crucial times,  as Chelsea or Juve,

Other interesting prospects are Real Madrid, who are strong in all positions except attack ,  Arsenal similar except for defence and Tottenham except in goal. Will these sides look for a deal to be done ?

Genoa and Porto have got off to a great start , pick up the early points and the pressure is off in some respect.

Schalke especially look to have their work cut out, although statistically only 1 place better SC had no problems surviving the chop last season. For me Benfica have a huge hill to climb, most clubs will see the chance to fill their boots against a week keeper and defence.

Bremen 2nd candidate for team of the year. +14VA +15PVA, Feyenord also +10 with promoted Montpellier +7.

Division 5 is always a mad bad world.

Bremen always had a good keeper for the division and a strong midfield, but a few crafty late season buys pushed him over the line.

West Brom -6/-0.71 and more so  West Ham -13/-0.75  were crushingly disappointing, which helped but Santos in 2nd , Montpellier pushed them hard with 4 pts separating the top 6.

Feyenord on +10 improved as the season went on , Twente were unlucky to fail in the playoffs.

Other than those mentioned, Independient on -7 and River Plate on -14 VA are notable in their below par performance. 

Basel top of stats in D4, Stoke get the best VA,  Atalanta, Boca and Partizan disappoint their fans.

Most people thought Monaco were odds on favourites to win D4 including me, while they came 2nd , Basel stormed to victory.  Stoke got a great +8 VA, with 2nd spot Levante gettng a creditable + 5, with Torino matching them .

Such was the accuracy of the stats at the wrong end with the lowest 3 correctly positioned and AZ just one place out in 17th . Boca just escaped in 16th with -7 VA , the same Partizan in 13th.  This left playoff possible Atalanta in the lowest VA spot.

Liege and Hellas battled it out for the title and for the stats in D3, Saint Etienne,  Leicester and Southampton fail to perform.

Liege no one would argue were a cut above in D3 with a +34 GD almost a goal a game better than their opponents.

They get the PVA award but Hellas in 2nd push them close at +2.  Sao Paulo pushed themselves into the playoffs and a high stats finish, but this proved to be a game too far as it did for +8 VA Fenerbache. 

At the wrong end Southampton , clear promotion candidates got -12 VA and -0.79 PVA a miserable performance all round,  but this was eclipsed by ST Etiennes fall from grace finishing last and -8 VA. Leicester narrowly avoided the chop on -8 VA in 16th.

5 of the top 6 were accurately predicted as were 3/4 relegated teams.

Ajax deserved champions of D2,  Zenit and Galatasaray get an honourable mention . Milan and Valencia the biggest dissapointments.

Promoted as champions , the well deserved Ajax team overcame close rivals Atletico and Genoa , who despite a medicore VA ,did what it took to go up. Zenit and Galatasaray should have been in the relegation zone but avoided the drop this season. 

Valencia and Milan have the lowest PVA , Milan even failing in the playoffs.  Berlin were much lower than expected.

5 of the teams in the top 6 were those predicted to be and 2 teams expected to be relegated escaped but 2 only just.

SC Internacional or Bayern the true champs of D1?

Arsenal and Barcelona well below expectations.

First of all the health warning.

This is all based on number crunching, it take no accounts of trading, tactics, how the team was when you had it etc.

VA = difference between where you finished and where you should have done.

PVA takes into account the importance of finishing higher up and modifies the total.

Bayern have the highest PVA at +2 with their first spot all but guaranting them this award . SC Internacional who many would have seen as relegation certainties got the best VA of +12 , with Porto doing well at + 4 in 8th.

The biggest negative scores went to Arsenal at -10 and -0.6 with their narrow squeek over the relegation line.

Leverkeusen should be the post dissapointed with a mid pace team relegated. Everton, Seville, Tottenham rele

gated as predicted.

Division 5 stats and fact. Season 8.

Bremen and Dynamo defy the odds. Baggies and Santos favourites. 

For obvious reasons there is a distinct tail off in ratings when you hit D5.

There is no through traffic, mainly down and then up again, at least in theory.

West Brom are lucky to have a 90 rated keeper in all respects , after his mega generous rise in the ratings. Except West Ham they need fear no attack. They lack any real depth so maybe no cup run, will fitness be an issue?

Santos have a great keeper and as good a midfield as West Brom and with more depth could hope for a late run.

Independiente could secure their future with a better keeper, considering there are 87 rated keepers at externals which is why they sit 12th at the moment.

Bruge are playing to form at the moment and with a well balanced squad they could well get into the playoffs this season.

To survive D4 you need 218 + points so we need to draw the line at Bruge unless we are looking at a return to sender promotee this season.

Bremen are skilfully using their strong midfield at the moment to thwart others but will they be a victim of their own success early doors.

At the wrong end , no relegation, just the sack race to avoid. Terrible start for River Plate and Malaga who should sit higher. They will move up so should Besitkas , Feyenord and Bordeaux find it tough as predicted it could be anyone of around 8 teams in the mix. 

Having said that unlike the other divisions, the predicter works less well here. 

Division 4 season 8  stats and facts.

Monaco to go up , should do!  Espanyol should lead rest of pack.

Monaco are the best team in Division 4 and would also be equally highly ranked in Division 3. Anything other than a convincing title performance would be calculated by all as an abject failing by a team that for some reason stuggles to perform more often than not.

Espanyol also have a well balanced side with good depth , they would also fancy a top 3 finish in the division above so should finish 2nd.

Celta in 3rd are really the only top rated team performing well at the moment, perhaps lacking the depth of the other 2 and an older starting eleven perhaps will cost them in the end . 

To survive in D3 you need around 218 rating points , so almost the entire D4 line up with the exception of the lowest 4 rated could survive , to be in with a chance of an additional promotion you would need around 220 points which bodes well for any team down to Partizan. 

Partizan and Villa could well be strongest in the cup, although each has suffered one early exit. 

Olympiacos are an interesting prospect a good keeper and attack. Long ball game perhaps as a midfield battle won't succeed.

Great starts by Basel and Levante who are rated in the top 10 but are rightly over performing at the moment.

At the wrong end it will be a struggle. Last year the same system got 3/4 relegated team and no team outside the lowest 6 was relegated.

So it looks bad for Cruziero and Zagreb although fair enough to Zagreb it looked that way last season and they were the only teams in the lowest 4 to make it.

Spartak also lack depth , Kiev on the other hand may have sufficient in the tank to pull clear in the 2nd half of the season.  

Division 3 season 8 stats and facts. Current top 8 have 7/8 best attacking lines in D3 enough said or is there and alternative.

Well yes!. The top 5 are also 5 out of the 7 highest ranked teams and the top 8 only has only one side ranked lower than 9 and nothing less than 11th.

Andelecht sit a cut above the rest statistically. Strong at the back strong in defence , good midfield.

Southampton have a similar squad but with a little more depth and must look to make a long term challenge as injuries could hit home to Anderlecht. Liege have a powerful midfield and sit 3rd at the moment. CSKA also have a squad with few weaknesses at D3 level.  Hellas in 4th also use the midfield to strangle other teams . You will need 220 to survive in D2 so the current top 8 must be the favourites for promotion, others have work to , as if promoted they will surely get relegated the next season.

Last season the top 3 sides all had a rating above 220 so that seems to be the cut off. 

I haven't forgotten the current worthy leaders ST Etienne, shows what a potent attack can achieve, no other real strength , they are a one trick team, bnt if that trick works why not?

In addition Dynamo Kiev possible relegation bound have also got off to a good start.

As for relegation in general you are looking at 217 - 218.6 level , that means there are a broad range of teams at threat of the drop.  

At least at the moment it looks like a long season for Chievo, PSV and Lyon have the strength to pull themselves away,  this will also drop Fenerbarche and Shaktar into the lower reaches. 

Division 2 season 8 stats and facts.

2 Italian teams lead the pack and 2 more are set to be relegated.

Official health warning.

This is a purely statistical analysis of the teams in division 2.  While I may add a comment or two to make a good read, this in no way reflects on the managerial or squad building ability of any manager.

AC Milan are a point and a half above any other team, they could easily finish mid table in division 1. They have a higher rating than any promoted D2 or relegated D1 team last season. Should be a walk in the park or would be if it were not for Genoa.

Genoa with Salah and Firmino a little weaker at the back than AC but much stronger up top.  These must be the top 2 . 

A rating of around 223 will be needed to survive D1 so any team from Valencia up could challenge for promotion , Ajax with their strong keeper could be favourites , while Moenchengladbach who lack depth could disappoint, with Benfica also needing to reinforce between the sticks.

Zenit could be a great cup side , with their keeper backing up the capable reserve team.

 With the exception of Southampton the relegated teams had a rating of 220 or less. The relegation scrap this year should be more intense with 6 or more teams at real risk of the drop.

Celtic currently well over performing must be the favourites. Little back up , weak keeper at the moment, most teams will fancy their chances,  although some could risk a weakened side which would be a mistake. 

Two of my old sides sit statistically in the lower 4 ,  both managers have a big job to do with Sporting looking especially vunerable, although they have got off to fair starts.