League Winners: Sunderland (69 pts, GD- +15)
Confirmed promotion: Newcastle (2nd, 64 pts, +15), Lokomotiv Moskva (3rd, 63 pts, +11)
Promotion play-offs:
4. Shakhtar Donetsk (H, v Leicester)- 59 pts (+17)
– Guaranteed play-offs spot, and will finish 4th with a win/draw. Even if they lose, their superior GD should see them finish 4th.
5. Lille OSC (H, v Basel)- 56 pts (+11)
– Definite qualification with a win, which will see them finish either 4th or 5th if Donetsk lose. If they draw, there is a chance that qualification may boil down to GD, in which case their superior GD should see him through. However, if they lose, they will need one of Hoffenheim and Boca to lose/draw in order to squeeze through.
6. Aston Villa (H, v Swansea)- 56 pts (0)
– Similar to Lille, however their GD means that they are unlikely to finish 4th. Even if they win, they will go through as 6th if Lille do not drop points. If they draw, Hoffenheim’s negative GD should see Villa go through in the scenario that 3/4 teams are tied on 57 points. However, if they lose, they will need one of Hoffenheim and Boca to lose/draw in order to squeeze through.
7. Boca Juniors (H, v Sunderland)- 54 pts (+7)
– This is where it gets tricky. A win will see them through either 5th, 6th or 7th based on other results, even if Hoffenheim win (due to their GD). If they draw, they will need Hoffenheim and Palace to drop points, in which case their GD will see them go through ahead of Hoffenheim. Stoke’s negative GD means that if they win in this scenario they are unlikely to pip Boca. If Boca lose, they will need Hoffenheim to lose, Palace and Stoke to draw/lose. Even though a Hoffenheim loss will see Cruzeiro move level with Boca, their GD should allow Boca to go through.
8. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (H, v Cruzeiro)- 54 pts (-6)
– Owing to their GD, a Boca win will not allow Hoffenheim to go through even if they win. As a result, if Boca drop points, Hoffenheim are in with a chance. If they draw, they will need Boca to lose, and Palace and Stoke draw/lose. If they lose however, they will not make it unless Boca lose by a 13 goal margin at the least, which is next to impossible.
Hence, their fate is dependant on Boca’s result.
9. Crystal Palace (A, v West Ham)- 52 pts (+8)
– Can only go through with a win along with Boca and Hoffenheim losing/drawing, upon which they will go through on GD (if either/both teams draw)
10. Stoke City (A, v Ajax)- 52 pts (-5)
– Similar to Palace, but their negative GD (relative to Boca) means they will need Boca to lose and Hoffenheim to lose/draw, upon which they will go through on favourable GD against Hoffenheim. All this is only if Stoke win.
11. Cruzeiro (A, v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim)- 51 pts (-8)
– The team with the least chance of going through. Can only go through with a win, after which they will need Boca and Hoffenheim to lose. In this only scenario, results may allow Cruzeiro’s GD to move ahead of Hoffenheim but Cruzeiro will have to win their game by a 15-goal margin to ensure qualification, which is next to impossible. Realistically not going to happen.
Relegation:
Confirmed relegation: SC Internacional (19th, 39 pts, -7), West Ham Utd (20th, 33 pts, -18)
13. FC Basel (A, v Lille OSC)- 47 pts (0)
– While on first glance it may seem like they will go down, this is not the case. Southampton are unable to go ahead of Basel, while 16th placed PSV play 17th placed Dynamo Moskva, meaning both cannot overtake Basel. Hence they cannot go down.
14. Ajax (H, v Stoke)- 44 pts (1)
– The best of 4 teams tied on 44 points, Ajax could benefit from their favourable GD. A point will secure safety, but even if they lose, they will have to lose by a huge margin, a margin which will put their GD below the losing team of the PSV-Dynamo clash. Given the gap in GD, Ajax have realistically secured safety. Even if they draw, their GD will keep them above the winner of Dynamo-PSV and Southampton.
15. Leicester City (A, v Shakhtar Donetsk)- 44 pts (-4)
– Similar to Ajax, but more likely to go down if they and PSV lose. Given the gap in GD between Leicester and PSV is only 3 goals, if both teams lose, only if the margin of the Leicester game is more than 4 goals more than the margin of the PSV game, Leicester will survive. If it is 4 goals more, Leicester will stay up on the basis of scoring more goals than PSV. If they draw, they should still finish ahead of Southampton and one of PSV/Dynamo (if one of them wins) or both (if both draw). Easier to just get a point though.
16. PSV (A, v Dynamo Moskva)- 44 pts (-7)
– In between Leicester and Dynamo. If they win, they will stay up, however if they lose, they will need Southampton to lose/draw and one of Ajax and Leicester to lose by a margin that will put PSV’s GD above one of them. Specifically, Leicester will have to lose by a margin of more than 4 goals in order for PSV’s GD to be more than Leicester, Exactly 4 and PSV will still be below Leicester due to Leicester scoring more goals over the course of the season. If they draw, due to GD Ajax and Leicester will have to lose, while the Southampton result will not matter.
17. Dynamo Moskva (H, v PSV)- 44 pts (-15)
– If they win, they stay in D3. If they draw, Leicester and Ajax will have to lose (no draw, as Dynamo’s GD is the worst of all) and Southampton lose/draw. If they lose however, they will go down unless Ajax or Leicester lose by a margin that will put Dynamo’s GD above one of the two teams.
18. Southampton (A, v Lokomotiv Moskva)- 42 pts (-13)
– First, they have to win. Second, they will have to depend on other results (using this very loosely). Given their very poor GD compared to Ajax, Leicester and PSV, Ajax, Leicester and one of PSV and Dynamo will have to lose in order for Southampton to survive. This is the simplest, most obvious scenario. Even if one of Ajax and Leicester draw, Southampton can survive, however the PSV-Dynamo game will have to provide a winner.
GAME TO WATCH: Dynamo Moskva v PSV
* All this has been done mentally, I apologise if I have made any mistake and caused one of the teams to lose as a result :P, however, I am unsure mainly for the relegation teams.
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