Historical Points

Above are the historical points needed in each division.

What it means:

D5: Santos should be favorites for the title, some of the teams on the cusp of the playoffs need a hot streak as they are underperforming historical cut-off, the bottom teams are also underperforming.

D4: Flamengo should be favorites for the title, I don’t expect the playoff teams to change, and the bottom teams are underperforming historical averages.

D3: Cologne are ahead in the standings but lagging prior years’ champions as are the playoff teams. The teams odds on to be sacked are already ahead of or will be ahead of historical averages. Compared to D4/5, D3 is solidly packed.

D2: A similar story in D2 – the top teams are reaching as high as years past, the bottom teams aren’t quite as low. It will make for exciting games over the next 2 weeks in D3 and D2.

D1: Ordinarily a team like West Brom or Man City would be safe and while Chelsea are pulling away from the pack (well done James) they haven’t quite reached the points level of previous champions.

Summary: In D1-D3, the top teams aren’t quite as high and low teams (with a few exceptions) aren’t quite as low, though D4 and D5 have far greater variance. Interesting as I think (and may be wrong) that Malcolm’s stats typically indicate that the higher you go up in divisions, the greater deviation of ratings. It could be due to management, the removal of contracts, or the wonky SM match engine. But interesting (to some) nonetheless.

Good luck the rest of the season everyone – except CSKA’s remaining opponents. I hope your players ate some tainted fruit cakes.