Wolfsburg – eine Achterbahn

I took on the role as manager of Wolfsburg on the 16^th of January 2024. I suppose it was a natural appointment in many ways, considering I’ve grown up in Germany and know the language.

Since taking over, we’ve had a real rollercoaster experience, riding as high as first in Div 4 last season to sitting as low as 18^th currently. That old saying “honeymoons don’t last forever” has been echoing in my head for quite a while…

But whilst our performances in the league have been disappointing, I am a believer in building something for the long term. Anyone can sign a bunch of oldies, have a couple years of success & jump ship – and don’t get me wrong, this is a perfectly viable strategy if your goal is to take on bigger and better jobs very quickly – but few have the patience to really build something.

However, this relies on decent results on the pitch. If results are poor, there comes a point when you have to ask yourself, “do I abandon the long-term strategy or risk losing my job?”. A true dilemma, and one I currently find myself in.

Before I get to that, here’s a little update on what I’ve actually done (and what’s happened in general) at Wolfsburg since taking charge…

Transfers

I inherited quite an old squad, so the first focus was on reducing the avg. age, effectively balancing the squad between old and young. I don’t mind old players, but there should be a balance. Our avg. age is now ~27, which I believe to be perfect.

One of my first deals was Icardi out, Lewis Ferguson & Brajan Gruda in. A brilliant piece of business & probably still the best deal in my 9 month tenure at the club. Since signing, Ferguson has gone up 2 to an 89 and Gruda has gone up 5 to an 85. Other good pieces of business would be:

Name	Price	Rating given up	Rating of acquired player
Gregoritsch	5m & Andy Moran	76, since +4	88, since +0
Njinmah	800k	–	83, since +3
D.Svensson & J.Diehl	Umut Tohumcu	82, since +0	82 & 75, since +0 & +0
Yalcouye	479k	–	78, since +8

Rating Changes

The biggest difference between this and last season is the rating downgrades among some of my best senior players. Since taking over I knew they would pose an issue down the road, but I simply wasn’t able to get rid of them… It was either sell them for nothing or benefit from their ratings for as long as possible:

Name	Rating then	Rating now
Gollini	88	87
Cabella	88	87
Caprari	88	87

The above downgrades coupled with some disappointing “non-risers” made way for the perfect storm…

Name	Rating	Comment
Mavropanos	87	Starting CB at West Ham irl
Krafth	85	Utility player at Newcastle irl
Junior	86	Injured just as he took over starting XI position at PSV irl
Mota	86	Good season & Portugal call-up
M.Pereira	86	Taking the Brazilian league by storm
Afif	86	8,9 avg. rating last season, 26 goals & 11 assists in 21 starts

Of the above, I’m especially annoyed with Krafth and Afif. Krafth has played the majority of Newcastle’s matches irl over the past year, and has done really well as well. Consistently given credit by Eddie Howe, a +2 to an 87 would be fair in my (slightly biased) opinion. And Afif, what can I say? 26 goals and 11 assists in 21 starts – not sure what else he should’ve done to warrant an upgrade… cure cancer? Absolute joke, but that’s just SM things I suppose.

Tactics

After 9 months of tinkering around, I’ve created two main formations. Typically, we resort to a 4231 at home and a 4411 away. This does of course change slightly depending on the strength of our opponent. When everyone is fit and available our starting XI’s look something like this:

4231:

4411:

On paper, the team looks “ok”, but with a team rating of 87, I’d argue we are a lower league side in div 4.

Performances

After our 2-0 winning opener against Dan Wallace’s ex-club Shakhtar, not much has gone our way. Injuries and unecessary red cards haven’t exactly made things easier either. Sitting in the bottom 4 hurts, and it was hardly imaginable halfway through last season (when we were sitting comfortably in 1^st). Of course I would love for us to go on a winning streak, and our latest win against Mönchengladbach gives me some hope, but the realist in me knows very well we’re in for a long second half of the season. It’ll be a battle right to the end.

…And so we go back to the dilemma, “do I abandon the long-term strategy or risk losing my job?”…

For now, I’ve gone with the latter as I’d really like to avoid selling my best players for three peanuts and a Mars bar (a couple of 90 rated 56 year olds). If I lose my job, then so be it, but it won’t be at the expense of the long-term future of the club. I’d like to see Wolfsburg flourish, with or without me.

That being said, we are not giving up ’till the fat lady sings’! Thanks for reading, and good luck to all!!!