Levante heading back to Division 1?

Straight 90 rated Levante seem set to gain promotion, the only real area of weakness is the depth.  Stoke though in 2^nd have a stronger attack and should be able to challenge them. Sao Paulo have the strongest midfield and are well balanced. Sporting perhaps a keeper short of promotion have a potent outfield and one of the strongest attacks. Liege go for the top and tail approach but do lack some depth. We then have SC Internacional who go out and out depth as the others falter they could well move up the table.

To survive D1 you will need a rating of 224 so Liverpool would also fancy their chance at promotion or play off success.

As for relegation anything under 220 leaves you in real risk of problems. Hamburg know that they will need strong tactics to finish anywhere other than last. Espanyol lack a strong attack and are weak in defence. Promoted Celta are much more potent up top but again do they have enough in defence to survive.  Hoffenheim are also ok at the front but a weak keeper, defensive combination will be troublesome.  AC Milan seem to be more balanced and have good depth,

Division 2 is substantially weaker than last season both on average and the highest / lowest side dropping around 2 points.

Can Chelsea overcome the champions as the stats predict.

A fairly narrow gap splits the top two teams. Hellas have greater depth and a superior defence than Chelsea and match them up top. Chelsea will be using their keeper and midfield to screen the opposing sides.

Dortmund are their closest rivals a well balanced side with a potent attack. Porto are a similar side to  Chelsea with the same kind of balance with Juve another side that is balanced throughout.

Benfica have an obvious weakness in defence but are otherwise a tough side to crack,  Bayern have greater depth than any side in the league and as the season goes on they should make greater progress.  Everton are the wild card side for me, lacking in depth a weaker keeper but on their day could match anyone.

As for relegation 224 is a fair cut off.  This leave 5 sides in obvious danger. Villa with less depth a relatively poor keeper and defence combo might be in more trouble than 17^th suggests.    Valencia have a strong attack but may struggle throughout as will Southampton.  West Brom go for the top and tail technique. Hope your keeper saves you and the attack can punt in a few goals.

Division 1 is slightly stronger than last season but with less difference between the highest and lowest teams.

Usual explanation here:

Teams are rated using a formula which looks at the 4 main positions, GK,DEF,MID and FWD, along with the 18^th ranked player ( the lowest ranked player likely to play ) and the Average.

This produced ETOT the ranking used to work out the final position. This formula is more or less unchanged from around season 4 onwards. There is human input in deciding the most likely team. In addition on occasions the 18^th ranked player ( or less ) in much lower rated, I may choose to ignore that to not skew the stats.

Independiente have a really solid side, it should be a relatively easy ride into D4, they top and tail their team nicely and have good depth. Then perhaps much like the current seasons the rest of the placings will be hard fought by a large number of teams. Boca and Lazio also both top and tail their team with a strong GK, ATT combo. Lazio lack depth which will cost them. Santos have a good midfield but are weaker uptop.

Spartak need a good keeper as do Kyiv,. Kazan look well balanced again.

The cut off for survival in D4 isn’t that high at 216.5 so this rightly suggest all teams down to Athletic club could feature in the playoff and get promoted.

Lower down only the sack race to worry about. Basel, Lyon and Partizan lack any depth.  Newcastle need a good rebuild with only rating above 87.

Division 5 is considerably stronger than last year up half a rating point from the previous season. This is probably due to rebuilds, no contracts and a particularly weak team gaining promotion.

Atalanta deserved leaders in the stats and they win the league.

Finishing 3 places above expected Atatlanta have +4 PVA. They sit just above fellow promoted team Montpellier who have a VA of +9. However the teams with the highest VA are Besitkas and Seville on +10 , both made the playoffs although only Seville survived the first round. Athletic club the opponents of Seville sit on +6 VA and Newcastle get an honourable mention on +6 VA

Poor performances though from 4 of the top  6 predicted sides see that at the wrong end of the stats.  Kazan should have been 3^rd but came 11^th they have the joint lowest VA on -8 and lowest PVA on -0.64. Villareal should have made the playoffs but didn’t they also have -8 VA along with Marseille. Boca made the playoffs but their promotion hopes were blown out by Seville.

3 of the lowest 4 predicted teams finished in the lowest 4

The top 3 in the league are in the top 3 of the stats.

Koln will be celebrating like Rose Monday after they lead the stats and the league with +7 VA , 1^st place and +8 PVA.

Third in the league but 2^nd in the stats are Crystal Palace on +9 VA, CSKA 3^rd place in the stats but 2^nd in the league finished 5 places above expected.  Olympiacos in 4^th spot in the league have +11VA and qualify for the play off spots. Big notable +7 for Fiorentina who looked like relegation fodder but survived well to finish 12^th.

Predicted 1 /2 in the league finish 20^th and 19^th in the stats one of 3 teams on -9 VA.  AZ , Feynenoord and Partizan all fell below their expected finishing positions.

Celta Vigo +14 VA and + 7.5 PVA head the stats and get promoted, just above their Turkish rivals.

It isn’t very often that a +7 VA and auto promotion wouldn’t get you the team of the year in D3 but Fenerbache’s fantastic performance is eclipsed by their Galician rivals.  Celtic third in the stats , also make the play offs with +8VA.  Levante in 4^th spot got promoted as they should have done as leaders. Have to give Beddows some credit for a +7 VA and avoiding relegation with Sampdoria, with Twente the other notable overperformers.

Augsburg on -12VA are heading in the wrong direction , relegated when playoffs were more than achievable, they sit lowest in the stats.  Schalke miss out on playoff and promotion and a -5 VA leaves them 2^nd lowest in the stats. Flamengo maybe the end of an era for the project side as they are relegated. Zagreb , Swansea , Galatasaray must also be disappointed with their seasons. Again I have the feeling that a number of sides feel more able to take risks and clearly rebuilds are in progress.