Three games in to Season 4, and after two wins, VfL Wolfsburg climb into 5th position on the table. Manager Greg Owen looks at the task ahead after setting himself a Managerial Stipulation of at least making the promotion playoff placings.
Like most managers, this means looking at a minimum number of points that the team will need during the season, or alternatively looking at the number of wins required, in order to meet the chairman’s and the team’s goal. And of course – to save his own job!
So, looking at the past three seasons in Division 2 (see below for summary) shows that a total of 70pts or more in any of the past seasons will mean a top three finish and automatic promotion to Division 1. Typically this has equated to winning at least 20 or 21 games in the season.
The situation for reaching the promotion playoffs is again reasonably consistent – although clearly Season 3 was a lot tighter and the points required to reach 7th were lower as a result. But overall, a points total of over 60 would be expected to be required to have a chance of playing off for promotion – with an expectation of winning about 18 games or more required to reach this total.
So clearly the first goal is to accumulate at least 60pts, with an aim of winning at least half of all league games during the season. Once that one’s in the bag, we’ll push on for a top three finish!
To bring some reality into the situation, let’s compare this with how Wolfsburg have fared in the past three seasons – all of which have been spent in Division 2. Wolfsburg have ended the three seasons in 12th, 5th and 10th places on totals of 51, 65 and 52pts. So with the exception of Season 2’s excellent achievement – the last time the team reached the playoff spots – Wolfsburg have been pretty consistent in points scored, with the difference in placings being attributable to the tightness of the competition in Season 3.
Taking the view from Mr Malcolm – in his excellent statistical analysis – has put Wolfsburg at 7th in Season 2, and 14th in Season 3 (I couldn’t find the analysis for Season 1). So the team has managed to improve +2 and +4 on these predictions in the past. For Season 4 his prediction is for Wolfsburg to be back up to 7th – presumably based on the overall improvements in the squad with the addition of Gotze, Fabregas and Toure – so certainly a Top 5 finish is not out of the question.
So what are the main changes which might impact getting to this target? Obviously the on-going ratings challenge for Fabregas and Toure will have a big impact – will they stay pretty consistent or will they be hit by big drops? If the Rooney example is anything to go by, they could remain at 94 and 92 for some time to come! Also, given the exposure in the current squad, Wolfsburg, Schalke and Dortmund (in real life) need to start firing in the Bundesliga so that some of the other players in the squad could get a chance to maintain their rating (Naldo), or even get a rise (Knoche or Geis). And now that Can is back in a firing Liverpool lineup (and scoring), it would be good to have another 90-rated midfielder in the pack.
So 6pts in the bag – two wins. Only another 54pts to go!
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